TDF 2018 - Rest Day 2 - ****SPOILERS****

DeadCalm

So, barring miracles, we're down to three realistic challengers for yellow. Is Froome still the favourite? How much time will he need over Dumoulin and Geraint before the TT to feel comfortable? Where will he get that time?

Then again, the TT isn't flat. Will Froome actually fancy his chances of taking time off the other two?

How crazy will stage 17 be? Will the leaders wait for their domestiques to join them or will they race from the gun? The video Knedlicky kindly posted suggests they will be facing a dilemma.

knedlicky wrote:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6nks2m

Will Bernal catch Latour in the young rider classification? Does anyone even care?

I gather it's traditional to post pictures of cows in spoiler threads. Here you go.

bobmcstuff

G is now odds-on favourite at several bookies (just about, 10/11). Other places he is evens or just shy.

Then Froome from say 1.1-1.25/1 or thereabouts. Then Dumoulin at around 5/1

Everyone else is above 50/1 except Roglic (around 20/1). Bardet 50-80/1, Quintana and Landa both over 80/1.

Some of these long odds guys could be worth a E/W as it wouldn't take much misfortune to put one of them on the podium.

Much as I would love G to win it I am a bit nervous about him in the 3rd week!

Pross

Don’t want to start a new thread for this so I’ll ask here. Is the final stage in the evening again and does anyone have timings? I’m considering jumping on a train from Rennes to Paris or possibly just cutting our time in Brittany short and having two days in Paris instead.

effillo

Pross wrote:

Don’t want to start a new thread for this so I’ll ask here. Is the final stage in the evening again and does anyone have timings? I’m considering jumping on a train from Rennes to Paris or possibly just cutting our time in Brittany short and having two days in Paris instead.

Don't have timings to hand but road book is your friend. There is a link to it in your spectators thread.

RichN95.

Pross wrote:

Don’t want to start a new thread for this so I’ll ask here. Is the final stage in the evening again and does anyone have timings? I’m considering jumping on a train from Rennes to Paris or possibly just cutting our time in Brittany short and having two days in Paris instead.

Early evening finish. Around 7pm local time.

Edited: 7, not 6.30.

poweredbyidris

Pross wrote:

Don’t want to start a new thread for this so I’ll ask here. Is the final stage in the evening again and does anyone have timings? I’m considering jumping on a train from Rennes to Paris or possibly just cutting our time in Brittany short and having two days in Paris instead.

According to the schedule, they're going to reach the Champs-Elysees just after 6pm and the finish will be just after 7 (CET)

Lanterne_Rogue

https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-21 - Final stage expected to end around 1900 local time.

Meanwhile, I'm trying to think what we've learnt so far.


- The loss of Porte has probably hit the amount of interest in this race more than we might have expected
- Movistar's policy of three slightly underwhelming leaders hasn't caused as much strife as expected. In any case, which one of them would you have picked?
- For a race that seemed heavily biased towards sprinters at the start, it hasn't half given them a kicking later on
- Several riders have been seriously off the pace (Yates has been hugely disappointing, for instance)
- Peter Sagan might as well be given the green jersey and a new trophy created. How do you even begin to stop him turning it into a procession?
- Sky hired entirely the wrong sort of puncheur

salsiccia1

underlayunderlay wrote:

Peter Sagan might as well be given the green jersey and a new trophy created. How do you even begin to stop him turning it into a procession?

I notice he's not being given stick for dominating his competition...

Pross

Salsiccia1 wrote:

underlayunderlay wrote:

Peter Sagan might as well be given the green jersey and a new trophy created. How do you even begin to stop him turning it into a procession?

I notice he's not being given stick for dominating his competition...

All interest went in it years ago. They changed the rules to stop Cav winning it and ever since Sagan has been the only rider with a chance. It’s perfectly reasonable for him to win as he’s the most consistent rider over various terrain but he wraps it up with points from the intermediate sprints while in meaningless breaks on mountain stages then sits up and soft pedals to the finish. I’d do away with intermediates on mountain stages or stick them within the final 20-30kms.

blazing_saddles

Salsiccia1 wrote:

underlayunderlay wrote:

Peter Sagan might as well be given the green jersey and a new trophy created. How do you even begin to stop him turning it into a procession?

I notice he's not being given stick for dominating his competition...

His is by far and away the most dominant performance of the Tour, but hey, when it's Pete Sagan, it's not boring............is it?

DeVlaeminck

Yes losing Porte was a blow as on form he can challenge anyone in the mountains and the TT - he just can't seem to avoid bad luck over 3 weeks. I think losing Nibali was a blow to the race too as while he might not have quite had the legs to win he is an aggressive rider who might have shook things up trying to.

The forecast isn't promising but I'd like at least one mountain stage to have rain just to add that element of unpredictability.

I think Roglic is still a realistic contender, a lot of his deficit is down to the TTT (?from memory) and he can time trial and the stages to come offer plenty of opportunities. There is also the terrain for someone like Movistar to go all in on a Contador style win or bust attack.

Lanterne_Rogue

Good point about Nibali - he's a bit like cobbles, in that everyone gets excited about the idea of what might happen when he gets to a descent but it rarely does. There's no real sense that anyone will shake it up as a wild card at the moment - there's an assumption that Dumoulin's biggest chance is the TT and only a Froome/Thomas dust up is likely to ignite the climbs.

No_Ta_Doctor

Also up for discussion, the state of the col d'Aubisque - will it be ready for Friday, after the landslide?
This pic is from yesterday, taken by Peter Thompson, who is running the entire TdF route ahead of the peloton for mental health charities.



https://www.facebook.com/marathonsforth ... =3&theater

TheBigBean

Pross wrote:

Salsiccia1 wrote:

underlayunderlay wrote:

Peter Sagan might as well be given the green jersey and a new trophy created. How do you even begin to stop him turning it into a procession?

I notice he's not being given stick for dominating his competition...

All interest went in it years ago. They changed the rules to stop Cav winning it and ever since Sagan has been the only rider with a chance. It’s perfectly reasonable for him to win as he’s the most consistent rider over various terrain but he wraps it up with points from the intermediate sprints while in meaningless breaks on mountain stages then sits up and soft pedals to the finish. I’d do away with intermediates on mountain stages or stick them within the final 20-30kms.

I don't think that is right. Cav won six stages one year and didn't win the green. As a result, they changed the points system to increase the chances that he would have done.

They also thought it would provide great entertainment to have a full blown sprint half-way through the stage, so increased the amount of point available for the intermediate sprints. This has failed in my opinion.

But then I also think weighting the points to disadvantage Sagan is not great. It should be a jersey for the most consistent finisher, and that is Sagan in this tour.

TheBigBean

It's all a bit underwhelming after this year's Giro. There is one summit finish to come and that is on the 65km day.

kingstongraham

If you have a jersey for the most consistent rider, or the most consistent sprinter, why would you change it because the most consistent rider always wins it? He's earned that jersey each time.

inseine

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Salsiccia1 wrote:

underlayunderlay wrote:

Peter Sagan might as well be given the green jersey and a new trophy created. How do you even begin to stop him turning it into a procession?

I notice he's not being given stick for dominating his competition...

His is by far and away the most dominant performance of the Tour, but hey, when it's Pete Sagan, it's not boring............is it?

Thing is, Sagan is the best green jersey type rider unless people want it to really be just a pure sprinters award, and even then....
It's not like the polka dot which isn't been held by a climber.

Pross

TheBigBean wrote:

But then I also think weighting the points to disadvantage Sagan is not great. It should be a jersey for the most consistent finisher, and that is Sagan in this tour.

I agree they shouldn’t weight the finish points. It’s the intermediates that I don’t like. As you say the idea was to get a mid stage sprint but the most it ever does is get 3 or 4 riders interested in a half sprint in the opening few stages. Having the intermediates on rolling or mountain stages seems to be pointless.

No_Ta_Doctor

It's all about stage 17 and the TT now, isn't it? There's a possibility for a hail Mary attack on stage 19 as well, but the day before a TT makes it a real risk.

Stage 16 - looks good for a break and a possible over the top for a handful of seconds attack
Stage 17 - could be chaos, could be overhyped - only remaining MTF
Stage 18 - flat, give unto Sagan what is due to Sagan
Stage 19 - nasty, nasty mountains, 200km
Stage 20 - TT
Stage 21 - Crowning Sagan

Has anyone actually got the team and organisation to make stage 17 the explosion it's supposed to be?

Pross

Have there been fewer MTFs on this Tour than usual? It feels we’ve had lots of mountain stages but only 3 (4 with Mende) MTFs feels light. I’m not a fan of mountain stages that don’t finish at the top of a hill, it feels like an anti-climax.

No_Ta_Doctor

Pross wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

But then I also think weighting the points to disadvantage Sagan is not great. It should be a jersey for the most consistent finisher, and that is Sagan in this tour.

I agree they shouldn’t weight the finish points. It’s the intermediates that I don’t like. As you say the idea was to get a mid stage sprint but the most it ever does is get 3 or 4 riders interested in a half sprint in the opening few stages. Having the intermediates on rolling or mountain stages seems to be pointless.

I've not done the maths, but Sagan would be in green without the intermediates, and with or without weighting of points for different stage finishes.

Ten top ten finishes so far: three wins, three second places and a single third. That's out of 14 individual stages. Only the Alps and yesterday's stage he hasn't earned points. There is nobody else in the peloton that can compete with that, not by a long shot. The intermediates are just about putting on a show for him - that and getting a few kms on the peloton before the climbing hits.

DeadCalm

No tA Doctor wrote:

It's all about stage 17 and the TT now, isn't it? There's a possibility for a hail Mary attack on stage 19 as well, but the day before a TT makes it a real risk.

Stage 16 - looks good for a break and a possible over the top for a handful of seconds attack
Stage 17 - could be chaos, could be overhyped - only remaining MTF
Stage 18 - flat, give unto Sagan what is due to Sagan
Stage 19 - nasty, nasty mountains, 200km
Stage 20 - TT
Stage 21 - Crowning Sagan

Has anyone actually got the team and organisation to make stage 17 the explosion it's supposed to be?

Sky?

kingstongraham

TheBigBean wrote:

It's all a bit underwhelming after this year's Giro. There is one summit finish to come and that is on the 65km day.

Really? I think it's been a good race so far - best Alpe d'Huez race, great day on the cobbles, spectacular scenery, heartbreaking late catches, and the race is not decided. On the negative, there's almost no sprinters left, and there's been a few obligatory long dull days.

8 riders per team hasn't had any positive effect that I can see though.

No_Ta_Doctor

Pross wrote:

Have there been fewer MTFs on this Tour than usual? It feels we’ve had lots of mountain stages but only 3 (4 with Mende) MTFs feels light. I’m not a fan of mountain stages that don’t finish at the top of a hill, it feels like an anti-climax.

It follows the trend set last year. Again, it coincidentally makes the parcours more Bardet friendly.

phreak

No tA Doctor wrote:

It's all about stage 17 and the TT now, isn't it? There's a possibility for a hail Mary attack on stage 19 as well, but the day before a TT makes it a real risk.

Stage 16 - looks good for a break and a possible over the top for a handful of seconds attack
Stage 17 - could be chaos, could be overhyped - only remaining MTF
Stage 18 - flat, give unto Sagan what is due to Sagan
Stage 19 - nasty, nasty mountains, 200km
Stage 20 - TT
Stage 21 - Crowning Sagan

Has anyone actually got the team and organisation to make stage 17 the explosion it's supposed to be?

Neither Dumoulin or Roglic do, so it would need teams to gang up. Given the short nature of the stage though, it seems unlikely that there will be any element of surprise in the sense of that famous Vuelta stage that caught Sky out. They'll be surely on it from the b of the bang.

We're also assuming that Dumoulin has no after effects from the Giro. It's possible that both he and Froome will fade in the final week rather than Thomas.

Pross

Deleted. Typed a long reply and it disappeared so can’t be bothered again

hanshotfirst

phreak wrote:

We're also assuming that Dumoulin has no after effects from the Giro. It's possible that both he and Froome will fade in the final week rather than Thomas.

I keep thinking about this too. Think both of them have more chance of carrying form over 2 GT's than Contador and Quintana who tried recently but can't help but think that the hammer is coming after one of them.

Also heard someone say that a couple of years ago when Thomas seemed to melt on one of the last days; he's claimed he sat up to save his legs for domestique duty and sacrifice his shot at the podium rather than having a huge crack. Could be all talk but he could have the best legs for 3 weeks? We'll soon see.

No_Ta_Doctor

KingstonGraham wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

It's all a bit underwhelming after this year's Giro. There is one summit finish to come and that is on the 65km day.

Really? I think it's been a good race so far - best Alpe d'Huez race, great day on the cobbles, spectacular scenery, heartbreaking late catches, and the race is not decided. On the negative, there's almost no sprinters left, and there's been a few obligatory long dull days.

8 riders per team hasn't had any positive effect that I can see though.

There's been some discussion in Denmark that the 8 riders change has been part of the reason that all the sprinters are dead. Smaller ad less cohesive autobus in the mountains, as domestiques are kept working for longer and fewer riders in total.

Lanterne_Rogue

FWIW, I don't think Sagan is necessarily a problem that needs fixing. I wonder whether moving the intermediate sprints closer to the start, say at 10km, would encourage the sprinters' teams to go for them a load more, rather than Sagan going off in a break on his own to hoover them up? Deny them to breakaways, and give sprinters the whole of the rest of the stage to recover for a final sprint, and things might get shaken up. Given the way they were all torched in the mountains it'd still be Sagan in green, but it might have shaken up the racing to find sprinters teams drilling it for the first ten km of each flat stage.

No_Ta_Doctor

hanshotfirst wrote:

phreak wrote:

We're also assuming that Dumoulin has no after effects from the Giro. It's possible that both he and Froome will fade in the final week rather than Thomas.

I keep thinking about this too. Think both of them have more chance of carrying form over 2 GT's than Contador and Quintana who tried recently but can't help but think that the hammer is coming after one of them.

Also heard someone say that a couple of years ago when Thomas seemed to melt on one of the last days; he's claimed he sat up to save his legs for domestique duty and sacrifice his shot at the podium rather than having a huge crack. Could be all talk but he could have the best legs for 3 weeks? We'll soon see.

I think it's worth noting that this is the first Tour where Thomas has been built up as a potential leader, not just a luxury domestique and emergency plan B. They've been preparing him for a leadership role here for months as nobody knew if Froome would be riding. And he has always worked in the 2nd week mountains before this (though not to the grinding to a halt level we see from Kwiatkowski, Poels and Bernal). So better prepared and freed from domestique work I reckon he should be a little fresher than in the past.

No_Ta_Doctor

underlayunderlay wrote:

FWIW, I don't think Sagan is necessarily a problem that needs fixing. I wonder whether moving the intermediate sprints closer to the start, say at 10km, would encourage the sprinters' teams to go for them a load more, rather than Sagan going off in a break on his own to hoover them up? Deny them to breakaways, and give sprinters the whole of the rest of the stage to recover for a final sprint, and things might get shaken up. Given the way they were all torched in the mountains it'd still be Sagan in green, but it might have shaken up the racing to find sprinters teams drilling it for the first ten km of each flat stage.

But they're only really there for some light entertainment, it wouldn't make much sense to have that near the start. They're also an incentive for the break, not because it will put a rider in green but because you get a few extra seconds of TV coverage.