TDF 2018, Stage 9: Arras Citadelle > Roubaix 15/07/2018 - 156,5 km *Spoilers*

RichN95.

No tA Doctor wrote:

The list of helpers didn't have anyone for Fuglsang.

He's got Valgren, who won OHN and got a 4th in Flanders this year and 11th last year. He's not ridden P-R but he can ride cobbles. He's also got Magnus Cort, who's ridden it 4 times (DNF twice) and has 4 Flanders starts (best place 20). I reckon he'll be alright (kiss of death, obviously)

Key helpers can turn out to be unexpected riders as. I doubt many would have had Fuglsang down as a key Nibali helper four years ago.

Vino'sGhost

FocusZing wrote:

I'm up for unpredictable carnage today. It's been lacklustre, controlled and day after day flat stages uninspiring. GC's go to the wall so be it, because when it hits the mountains it will be a game of watts and radios anyway.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1010842170675335168

Have it!

Performance Enhancing Dog

FocusZing

Looks like Eddy the Eagles helping with the wheels.

Lanterne_Rogue

Anyone else hoping for Movistar's day to devolve into a Ben Hur chariot-race style epic, with all three 'leaders' trying desperately to ride each other into the verge, rake calves with sharpened cleats, hook bars etc etc?

If everyone's going full gas into each section it's not about road position - it's just about getting away from that lot.

FocusZing

Vino'sGhost wrote:

FocusZing wrote:

I'm up for unpredictable carnage today. It's been lacklustre, controlled and day after day flat stages uninspiring. GC's go to the wall so be it, because when it hits the mountains it will be a game of watts and radios anyway.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1010842170675335168

Have it!

Performance Enhancing Dog

I must have woke up in a right mood, very negative.

No_Ta_Doctor

Again re Fuglsang, he actually took 2nd place on the cobbles in 2014, leading Nibali in after Boom managed to get clear. And they were wet that year.

FocusZing

The obvious one Sagan, great bike handler and has the confidence to attack it. Bigger guys seem to suit it too.

DeadCalm

GVA has confirmed he'll not be waiting for Porte, so...

Froome - Rowe, Moscon
Thomas -
Uran - Vanmarcke, Phinney
Dumoulin - Arndt, Theuns
Quintana / Valverde / Landa - Erviti, Bennati, Rojas
Nibali - Haussler
Porte - Küng, Schar
Bardet - Dillier, Naesen
Yates - Hayman, Durbridge
Martin - Marcato, Kristoff
Fuglsang - Valgren, Magnus Cort
Zakarin - Politt, Zabel
Jungels - ?, ?

adr82

DeadCalm wrote:

Quintana / Valverde / Landa - Erviti, Bennati, Rojas

According to velonews, Movistar are explicitly pairing each of the GC guys up with one of those 3:

Movistar has its rough strategy mapped out, with each of its leaders having one assigned “bodyguard.” For Valverde, it’s Spanish classics veteran Imanol Erviti. Daniele Bennati will be looking after Quintana, while José Joaquín Rojas is the man for Landa.

“We are all looking out for each other. There are three of us — Imanol, Bennati and myself — and we are all keeping an eye out on the three of them,” Rojas said.

Will be interesting to see how well that works out...

Pross

RichN95 wrote:

underlayunderlay wrote:

(eta - and somewhere in the Death Star, Dave Brailsford spots a way to make finding Sky support in the feedzones even easier...)

In reality...

My old club mate on the front right of the photo, he was a decent junior time triallist back in the day.

No_Ta_Doctor

RonB wrote:

Check out @RealStephens recon of the entry to the first cobbles sector today - fight of position before the left hander will be entertaining

Noticeable in that is the huuuuuuge pothole on the left. That's going to take someone out. Possibly half the peloton.

No_Ta_Doctor

underlayunderlay wrote:

Anyone else hoping for Movistar's day to devolve into a Ben Hur chariot-race style epic, with all three 'leaders' trying desperately to ride each other into the verge, rake calves with sharpened cleats, hook bars etc etc?

If everyone's going full gas into each section it's not about road position - it's just about getting away from that lot.

One word addendum: Cofidis.

Pross

DeadCalm wrote:

For all those predicting Bardet will lose big on this stage, it's worth noting that he has Silvan Dillier (2nd in Roubaix this year), Oliver Naesen (12th) and Tony Gallopin (55th) riding in support.

It''s also worth reminding ourselves that, although both Luke Rowe and Geraint have had very impressive performances in Paris-Roubaix in the past, they have a few DNFs between them.

I don't think DNFs at P-R mean much. G and, even more so, Rowe would be among the favourites for P-R whenever they are on the start list.

bobmcstuff

The bookies chainrings rating:

Sagan
Terpstra, GVA, Gilbert
Lampaert, Stuyven, Demare, Greipel, Gaviria, Degenkolb, EBH

Sagan just long of 2/1 at most outlets. Whereas Tetrpstra, GVA, Gilbert ranging from 6-10/1 depending on outlet.

This compares to the Inrng ratings:

Peter Sagan
Greg van Avermaet, John Degenkolb
Kristoff, Greipel, Gaviria, Démare, Impey, EBH, Keukeleire

Same favourite, as Inrng says Sagan is the obvious pick, but the bookies have Terpstra and Gilbert quite hotly tipped, yet not mentioned by Inrng. Bookies quite down on Degenkolb.

blazing_saddles

Those rating are a bit too fixated on Sagan.
As for Inrng not giving the likes of Terpstra, or any Dutch/Belgian QS rider a shout....

ShutupJens

Will Sagan be helping Majka or will he be given free reign? If I were in charge I'd let him loose but Bora might be trying to get Majka a top 10 or something

tailwindhome

Pross wrote:

DeadCalm wrote:

For all those predicting Bardet will lose big on this stage, it's worth noting that he has Silvan Dillier (2nd in Roubaix this year), Oliver Naesen (12th) and Tony Gallopin (55th) riding in support.

It''s also worth reminding ourselves that, although both Luke Rowe and Geraint have had very impressive performances in Paris-Roubaix in the past, they have a few DNFs between them.

I don't think DNFs at P-R mean much. G and, even more so, Rowe would be among the favourites for P-R whenever they are on the start list.

While it ain't cobbles it's worth remembering Bardet's excellent ride at Strade Bianche in poor conditions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqX1T4Mh3ec

No_Ta_Doctor

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Those rating are a bit too fixated on Sagan.
As for Inrng not giving the likes of Terpstra, or any Dutch/Belgian QS rider a shout....

QS Possibly hampered by trying to ride GC for Alaphillipe? I hate it when teams with great stage-hunters have a mediocre GC hope they waste resources on.

bobmcstuff

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Those rating are a bit too fixated on Sagan.
As for Inrng not giving the likes of Terpstra, or any Dutch/Belgian QS rider a shout....

Just saying what I see! He is a bit shy of 2/1, about 9/4 or 11/5 on most outlets so it's not like he's not odds on or anything.

Today was quite easy as there are 3 distinct groupings of odds.

The other thing for Sagan is there are no GC riders to think about for him, while GVA says he's getting a free role I doubt he will be getting much team support. Whereas Sagan will do (even though I guess Bora will be riding for Majka on GC).

Lanterne_Rogue

No tA Doctor wrote:

underlayunderlay wrote:

Anyone else hoping for Movistar's day to devolve into a Ben Hur chariot-race style epic, with all three 'leaders' trying desperately to ride each other into the verge, rake calves with sharpened cleats, hook bars etc etc?

If everyone's going full gas into each section it's not about road position - it's just about getting away from that lot.

One word addendum: Cofidis.

Exclusive image from their team briefing this morning. Looks like they've actually done some recon for once:

No_Ta_Doctor

underlayunderlay wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

underlayunderlay wrote:

Anyone else hoping for Movistar's day to devolve into a Ben Hur chariot-race style epic, with all three 'leaders' trying desperately to ride each other into the verge, rake calves with sharpened cleats, hook bars etc etc?

If everyone's going full gas into each section it's not about road position - it's just about getting away from that lot.

One word addendum: Cofidis.

Exclusive image from their team briefing this morning. Looks like they've actually done some recon for once:

Strictly speaking, I'm not sure a cobblestone counts as "geography".

blazing_saddles

So, the stage start time hasn't been moved forward.

Vino'sGhost

FocusZing wrote:

Vino'sGhost wrote:

FocusZing wrote:

I'm up for unpredictable carnage today. It's been lacklustre, controlled and day after day flat stages uninspiring. GC's go to the wall so be it, because when it hits the mountains it will be a game of watts and radios anyway.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1010842170675335168

Have it!

Performance Enhancing Dog

I must have woke up in a right mood, very negative.

it was tongue in cheek.

Vino'sGhost

TailWindHome wrote:

Pross wrote:

DeadCalm wrote:

For all those predicting Bardet will lose big on this stage, it's worth noting that he has Silvan Dillier (2nd in Roubaix this year), Oliver Naesen (12th) and Tony Gallopin (55th) riding in support.

It''s also worth reminding ourselves that, although both Luke Rowe and Geraint have had very impressive performances in Paris-Roubaix in the past, they have a few DNFs between them.

I don't think DNFs at P-R mean much. G and, even more so, Rowe would be among the favourites for P-R whenever they are on the start list.

While it ain't cobbles it's worth remembering Bardet's excellent ride at Strade Bianche in poor conditions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqX1T4Mh3ec

Epic race.

Also this isn’t a one day race. I reckon the gc guys will be ok but it might be a hard day in the saddle.

bobmcstuff

I was going to go out on my bike after this, but I accidentally bought a nice claret yesterday and I can hear it calling to me. It is likely to get drunk during the stage I think.

FocusZing

bobmcstuff wrote:

I was going to go out on my bike after this, but I accidentally bought a nice claret yesterday and I can hear it calling to me. It is likely to get drunk during the stage I think.

You'll be talking cobblers after that.

No_Ta_Doctor

So, you're Nicolas Portal. You've got GC hopes for Thomas and Froome. You know Thomas can ride cobbles, you suspect Froome probably can as well. You've got Moscon, Rowe and Kwiatkowski - all potential cobbled winners in their own right but working for the leaders today. You've got TT power in Castroviejo and maybe Bernal (who will be in for a bit of a shock I reckon) and you've got your mountain goat Poels who you just want to get through safely for support in the mountains.

How do you approach this?
Do each of the GC get an assigned rider - just so everyone knows what their job is? You use Castroveijo early, on the tarmac as the obvious choice, Bernal even earlier, try and keep the team together as long as possible?
You let Thomas force it with one of the classics riders and hope Froome can follow?

bobmcstuff

And we are off! Just gone through KM0

Cofidis lining it out straight away

No_Ta_Doctor

#PrayForCraddock

Lanterne_Rogue

Hot start - peloton strung out. Short stage, fresh legs from the rest days. Promising...