Tour route 2018

rick_chasey

Welcome Moss.

My question to you; do you think Dumolin can outclimb or even match Froome uphill?

'cos there ain't many TT kms to worry about (and I suspect Sunweb won't ship much time to Sky in the TTT).

I suspect Dumolin can't.

RichN95.

Moss-JKP wrote:

I'm sure some of you purists aren't that keen on fans like myself

All the purists were once fans like yourself

Another thing to think about is that doing a time trial while battling for GC is not the same as doing one while you are not. If me look at Dumoulin in this year's Giro over the same distance in the final Time Trial, he is not that dominant. For a start van Emden beats him (maybe with better conditions), but also beats Nibali by 54s. So how much for Froome? 30s at best? I can't see that being enough.

Froome's biggest rival is the passage of time. He'll be 33 next July and in his 13th Grand Tour as a contender. Nothing lasts forever.

ddraver

I can't think of a Tour contender that must be under so much pressure as TommyD. You'd think the whole world of cycling hangs on him beating Froome next year...

RichN95.

ddraver wrote:

I can't think of a Tour contender that must be under so much pressure as TommyD. You'd think the whole world of cycling hangs on him beating Froome next year...

I think there's three or four riders more likely than him on this route

Moss-JKP

Rick Chasey wrote:

Welcome Moss.

My question to you; do you think Dumolin can outclimb or even match Froome uphill?

'cos there ain't many TT kms to worry about (and I suspect Sunweb won't ship much time to Sky in the TTT).

I suspect Dumolin can't.

Thanks for the welcome.

I don't think he'll outclimb Froome but based on Froome's last few wins, where he hasn't looked like blowing opponents away on the climbs, I don't think Froome will outclimb Dumoulin very often, if at all. I'd love Froome to approach this tour with it being the sole goal of his year and see stage wins akin to Ventoux 2013 and La Pierre-Saint-Martin 2015 but I'm not sure he's capable of such dominant wins anymore. Whether, as RichN95 suggests, that is because age is catching up with him or his rivals and their teams have simply started to catch up I'm not sure.

inseine

Isn't it the nature of racing these days? Gone are the days of winning the Tour by 30 mins. Everyone is so close, it's decided by the one or two crucial moments rather than epic solo attacks.

salsiccia1

Moss-JKP wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Welcome Moss.

My question to you; do you think Dumolin can outclimb or even match Froome uphill?

'cos there ain't many TT kms to worry about (and I suspect Sunweb won't ship much time to Sky in the TTT).

I suspect Dumolin can't.

Thanks for the welcome.

I don't think he'll outclimb Froome but based on Froome's last few wins, where he hasn't looked like blowing opponents away on the climbs, I don't think Froome will outclimb Dumoulin very often, if at all. I'd love Froome to approach this tour with it being the sole goal of his year and see stage wins akin to Ventoux 2013 and La Pierre-Saint-Martin 2015 but I'm not sure he's capable of such dominant wins anymore. Whether, as RichN95 suggests, that is because age is catching up with him or his rivals and their teams have simply started to catch up I'm not sure.

I agree he hasn't looked like blowing people away in his last few wins, but I'd say that's because:
2016: He didn't need to, as no-one really threatened him
2017: He came in deliberately undercooked so he could keep form for the Vuelta.

With a 5th Tour on the line and the Vuelta itch scratched, he'll be all-in on the Tour so no under-cooking in 2018. I also agree with Rick in that there's not enough Time Trialling for Dumoulin to inflict serious damage.

Personally I still see Quintana as his biggest threat in 2018. Movistar will have a team nearly as strong as Sky and if Quintana goes all-in on the Tour, possibly with Landa alongside (2017 joint man-of-the-match for me) then we might see fireworks from them. Also, Valverde won't be riding the Tour, which despite all his protestations of riding for Quintana really never seems to pan out, so that should help Quintana. Valverde only ever really rides for Valverde; and that's fair enough in most cases but not when Quintana is leader.

phreak

How much time will Quintana lose on the cobbles?

rick_chasey

phreak wrote:

How much time will Quintana lose on the cobbles?

Wet or dry?

Heeooowge difference.

sherer

phreak wrote:

How much time will Quintana lose on the cobbles?

anything can happen on them.. mechanical, rain, crash.. Froome could lose time too. Even classics riders have crashed on them in Roubaix before

phreak

Of course, crashes or mechanicals can happen on any stage. Lets assume that the weather is ok and all riders make it through safely. How much time would you expect Quintana to lose on Froome on that stage? Baring in mind Contador lost 2.30 or so to Nibali in 2014.

sherer

phreak wrote:

Of course, crashes or mechanicals can happen on any stage. Lets assume that the weather is ok and all riders make it through safely. How much time would you expect Quintana to lose on Froome on that stage? Baring in mind Contador lost 2.30 or so to Nibali in 2014.

i'd say a similar amount to that. Although seeing as he knows its coming he may prepare for the stage and surprise us all

phreak

sherer wrote:

phreak wrote:

Of course, crashes or mechanicals can happen on any stage. Lets assume that the weather is ok and all riders make it through safely. How much time would you expect Quintana to lose on Froome on that stage? Baring in mind Contador lost 2.30 or so to Nibali in 2014.

i'd say a similar amount to that. Although seeing as he knows its coming he may prepare for the stage and surprise us all

That was my thinking as well. Throw in the time trial and that's potentially 3 minutes Quintana has to make up in the mountains, and I'm not sure there's any evidence he can do that barring a collective balls up by Sky akin to the 2016 Vuelta.

I'd say that if everyone stays upright, the only real challenge to Froome will be Porte, who navigated the cobbles well in 2014 and can obviously climb and TT well. The presence of the cobbles rules out the pure climbers imo.

sherer

phreak wrote:

sherer wrote:

phreak wrote:

Of course, crashes or mechanicals can happen on any stage. Lets assume that the weather is ok and all riders make it through safely. How much time would you expect Quintana to lose on Froome on that stage? Baring in mind Contador lost 2.30 or so to Nibali in 2014.

i'd say a similar amount to that. Although seeing as he knows its coming he may prepare for the stage and surprise us all

That was my thinking as well. Throw in the time trial and that's potentially 3 minutes Quintana has to make up in the mountains, and I'm not sure there's any evidence he can do that barring a collective balls up by Sky akin to the 2016 Vuelta.

I'd say that if everyone stays upright, the only real challenge to Froome will be Porte, who navigated the cobbles well in 2014 and can obviously climb and TT well. The presence of the cobbles rules out the pure climbers imo.

How about Landa ? He was very strong at Sky and not sure he wants to move to Movistar and then end up supporting Quintana.

As always it depends how they decide to race each stage, too many stages are wasted with everyone coming home in a group. Seems we only really get a few days of actual racing these days

phreak

To date Landa has done best when the pressure has been off. His Giro breakthrough came when he was supporting Aru, and likewise at the Tour this year. He also did best in the Giro this year when the pressure was off and he could stage hunt with impunity. Remains to be seen how he does when he's a leader.

Dorset_Boy

Quintana could be out of contention after day one if we get a decent wind and some echelons! He doesn't seem very good at that type of riding. I also think he'll ship a load of time on the cobbles and will struggle on the other dirt tracks that have been included. I'''m also not sure his team particularly like riding for him.

Dumoulin will I think go well on the cobbles but I don't think he's a god enough climber to really trouble the likes of a Froome on peak form, even at 33.

I also think Bardet will struggle with the cobbles.

So if they all manage to get through the cobbles in one piece I think Froome's main rivals will be Nibbles and Landa. I do think that we will see Froome go all out for this one, and be in better shape than for the last 2 Tours.

rick_chasey

Suspect Dumolin won't ride TdF anyway.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Suspect Dumolin won't ride TdF anyway.

When's the Giro route out? Fairly soon I think.

inseine

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Personally I still see Quintana as his biggest threat in 2018. Movistar will have a team nearly as strong as Sky and if Quintana goes all-in on the Tour, possibly with Landa alongside (2017 joint man-of-the-match for me) then we might see fireworks from them. Also, Valverde won't be riding the Tour, which despite all his protestations of riding for Quintana really never seems to pan out, so that should help Quintana. Valverde only ever really rides for Valverde; and that's fair enough in most cases but not when Quintana is leader.

Fairs points, but since Landa wants to be a team leader will he be in good enough form for the Tour (assuming he goes for the Vuelta). He's a bit on/off with his support rolls.
Personally I think Valverde is good for Qunitana especially since he's a million times better tactician than Qunitana.
Good chnace Qunitana will be out of the running after week one.

RichN95.

inseine wrote:

Personally I think Valverde is good for Qunitana especially since he's a million times better tactician than Qunitana.
Good chnace Qunitana will be out of the running after week one.

Valverde says he doesn't want to do the Tour though. And what Valverde wants, Valverde is likely to get.

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racin ... nda-354452

rick_chasey

So, excluding Tom, who's Froome's biggest rival gonna be?

Quintana?
Nibali?
Bardet?

None of the above?

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

So, excluding Tom, who's Froome's biggest rival gonna be?

Quintana?
Nibali?
Bardet?

None of the above?

I still think Porte has the ability to be. It may be Lopez's year to become a proper player. Orica collectively can cause problems. Landa can't be discounted.

rick_chasey

Yeah, but which ONE specifically :P.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah, but which ONE specifically :P.

Ask me again in June

rick_chasey

Ah yeah yeah.

A hunch tells me Nibs...but his head to head on Froome is pretty weak.

But the route is well suited to him.

kingstongraham

Bardet. I don't think he'll lose as much time on next year's TT as this year.

inseine

RichN95 wrote:

inseine wrote:

Personally I think Valverde is good for Qunitana especially since he's a million times better tactician than Qunitana.
Good chnace Qunitana will be out of the running after week one.

Valverde says he doesn't want to do the Tour though. And what Valverde wants, Valverde is likely to get.

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racin ... nda-354452

That's my point. I think he's less chance without Valverde.

RichN95.

Someone just posted this on twitter - the first ever Pyreenean stage in 1910. At 289km one for Rick 'The Tank' Chasey



There's more @LasterketaBurua

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

Someone just posted this on twitter - the first ever Pyreenean stage in 1910. At 289km one for Rick 'The Tank' Chasey

Winning route that one.

salsiccia1

Rick Chasey wrote:

Ah yeah yeah.

A hunch tells me Nibs...but his head to head on Froome is pretty weak.

But the route is well suited to him.

Is Nibbles doing the Tour next year?