Tour route 2018

Dorset_Boy

Nairo's boss thinks cobbles have no part in a GT :shock: :shock:
http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/tour-de-france/paris-roubaix-cobbles-dangerous-included-tour-de-france-says-movistar-boss-355762?utm_content=manual&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_term=cyclingweekly

Shame the Passage du Gois isn't in due to the tides - it's an interesting section of road to ride across within the first couple of hours of becoming uncovered - often a fair bit of seaweed to dodge! Very flat opening, apart from getting over the bridge off Noirmoutier! Bet it's a flat calm day rather than having the strong westerly the armchair fans with their klaxons will want!

rick_chasey

So what's the BR consensus, now we've had a time to listen to pundits to 'inform' our view (tell us what to think)??

salsiccia1

It's the riders that make the race; you can't win it in the first week, but you can lose it etc.

Seriously, I think it's OK. Would have preferred a few more MTFs and maybe a bit more time trialling, and possibly some more serious climbing before half-way. And I understand what people are saying about all round cycling but I still think there shouldn't be Paris-Roubaix-type cobbles in the Tour.

DeVlaeminck

Rick Chasey wrote:

I once designed a one week route on procycling manager 2008 which was the following:

Stage 1: MSR
Stage 2: Roubaix
Stage 3: LBL
Stage 4: classic Alp D'Huez stage (here: https://thebrandbuilder.files.wordpress ... file17.gif)
Stage 5: 55km flat TT.


Stijn Devolder crushed everyone, every time.

I'd back Valverde on that course this year.

Couple of sprinters stages early on, one for the break, then the mountains decide the contenders and the best time trialist of them wins - standard Tour route.

rick_chasey

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

I once designed a one week route on procycling manager 2008 which was the following:

Stage 1: MSR
Stage 2: Roubaix
Stage 3: LBL
Stage 4: classic Alp D'Huez stage (here: https://thebrandbuilder.files.wordpress ... file17.gif)
Stage 5: 55km flat TT.


Stijn Devolder crushed everyone, every time.

I'd back Valverde on that course this year.

Couple of sprinters stages early on, one for the break, then the mountains decide the contenders and the best time trialist of them wins - standard Tour route.

Aye, but a full Roubaix route would be chuffing selective and would rule out a lot of usual TdF contenders.

inseine

Rick Chasey wrote:

So what's the BR consensus, now we've had a time to listen to pundits to 'inform' our view (tell us what to think)??

It's a bit of a different sort of tour and with the 8 man teams I think SKY will be the best prepared. Froome has the best multi task support riders, for the TTT, cobbles, mountains etc. I could easily see Qunitana loosing it in the first week, but on the other hand it could be good for Nibali. i'm looking forward to it.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

So what's the BR consensus, now we've had a time to listen to pundits to 'inform' our view (tell us what to think)??

The Tour is usually won by the biggest favourite that avoids calamity. And this route offers a lot more potential for things to go wrong. But likewise that also offers potential for challengers to fall away as well. It has a similar first nine days to 2015 when Froome was in the yellow jersey before they reached a mountain, but ended up being his toughest Tour

rick_chasey

Yeah.

It does seem pretty varied on a day-to-day level. I can imagine each stage on their own being relatively interesting.

You're right ,the GC isn't gonna be that exciting, but then it rarely is.

Does seem like Sagan will do really rather well on a course like that, and, naturally, I'm excited about such a cobbled stage so deep into the race. By stage 9 some teams may well have lost some of their domestiques ahead of a stage where they can be invaluable.

I'm curious to see how the TT length mass start stage will go; it's an interesting experiment to have at such a high level event. I guess the last time we had something really similar was 1996 and we all remember that stage.....

I'm disappointed about the overall length of the Tour, but then I increasingly am every year.

It feels quite a tricky course with lots of trip ups, and it spends a lot of time up north which is a nice change from this year which was almost entirely in the south.

I still get really excited about Alp D'Huez, so I'm pleased it's in in a traditional capacity.

TT mileage is pants, but ja, modern way innit? I guess it might encourage Froome to go on the attack a bit more uphill.

DeVlaeminck

Yes the opposition may well be thinking they need Froome to trip up if they are to beat him and the course offers more opportunities for that than usual, even if Sky look better placed to get through the potential traps than some other teams if you have the favourite in your team you want a controlled safe race.

bigmat

Would be interesting if, say, Nibali got a few minutes' lead on the cobbled stage. A full strength Sky/Froome having to attack to chase down a leader could be pretty entertaining I reckon. We've only really seen Froome doing that at the Vuelta when he was running on fumes, rather than at his peak form.

m.r.m.

There seems to be a somewhat minimum weight for a rider to ride cobbles well (seems to be in the 70-72 kg minimum range). Nibali is an exception and even he has no shot at a true cobbles race. So outside of bike handling skills even, extended sections of cobbles should favour heavier GC riders like Froome and Dumoulin more than Bardet, Quintana, Valverde, Chaves etc.

Froome will recon all of it extensively and practice riding on the cobbles. Regardless of his team strength and his rather incredible support in terms of the breadth of the abilities of his domestiques, I doubt he will be caught out on skills, since he tends to work on his weaknesses unlike Bardet for example.

Mad_Malx

No tA Doctor wrote:

And yeah, I love cobbled classics, but if we don't recognise that there's a hell of a lot of luck involved in riding pave (as well as technique, power etc)... I'm still not convinced they have a real place in a GT.

Doesn't the dominance of a very small number of riders argue that luck doesn't play that much of a role?
- or then again Sag's Flanders jacketgate maybe proves your point.

TheBigBean

Mad_Malx wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

And yeah, I love cobbled classics, but if we don't recognise that there's a hell of a lot of luck involved in riding pave (as well as technique, power etc)... I'm still not convinced they have a real place in a GT.

Doesn't the dominance of a very small number of riders argue that luck doesn't play that much of a role?
- or then again Sag's Flanders jacketgate maybe proves your point.

Ask Sep Vanmarcke if he agrees. Although this year's moment was entirely his fault, he has still managed to woefully under achieve given that he is the most talented cobbles rider in the pro ranks at the moment.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

Mad_Malx wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

And yeah, I love cobbled classics, but if we don't recognise that there's a hell of a lot of luck involved in riding pave (as well as technique, power etc)... I'm still not convinced they have a real place in a GT.

Doesn't the dominance of a very small number of riders argue that luck doesn't play that much of a role?
- or then again Sag's Flanders jacketgate maybe proves your point.

Ask Sep Vanmarcke if he agrees. Although this year's moment was entirely his fault, he has still managed to woefully under achieve given that he is the most talented cobbles rider in the pro ranks at the moment.

Unfortunately for Sep, cobbles are only 20% of the whole PR route.

m.r.m.

Also, in one day races you still need to have the ability to sprint at the end after going through all the torture. He lacks that entirely in comparison to the others, so if he can't solo he will not win (usually). That has nothing to do with luck either.

rick_chasey

Beat Boonen in a 3 up sprint once upon a time.

That was Boonen's mega year too. Stopped him from winning every cobbled race Boonen entered. (not including scheldeprijs)

No_Ta_Doctor

There's a specific skillset for riding cobbles well which few riders have, luck comes on top of that to further thin the field. And yes, Sep features somewhere near the top of the bad luck scale, but Sagan, Stybar have had their misfortunes, and even Boonen dropped his chain on the Boonenberg. Luck is also a little unfairly distributed - the better cobbled riders are the less bad luck they'll have - e.g. "take the centre to avoid punctures" - that's all very well if you're at the front, but you have to be bloody strong to get there to begin with. There's also the cobble knowledge you only get with riding them over and over again that allows you to know when e.g. taking the center isn't worth it on a particular section.

None of the GT riders race cobbled classics and none have developed the skills (though some have decent general skills that could be developed) or the cobble specific racecraft.

And just for interest's sake, there are more current WT riders with a Flanders or Roubaix title (I make it 7) than with a GT (6) to their name. I don't think the list of current riders with a L-B-L or Lombardia title is much different either.

mididoctors

col des borderes stage 19 is an unusual entree to the soulour. really small roads but not too steep. could get really stuck behind. pic de nore is a windswept finish too a mini ventoux...wonder what the rest of stage 15 looks like?

mididoctors

overall not a bad route. its pretty mixed. the Brittany stages look tougher than one would think. takes a while to get going 9 stages before any real hills. stage 1 just has wind written all over it.

thumbs up from me.

phreak

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Yes the opposition may well be thinking they need Froome to trip up if they are to beat him and the course offers more opportunities for that than usual, even if Sky look better placed to get through the potential traps than some other teams if you have the favourite in your team you want a controlled safe race.

It seems reliant upon Froome to trip himself up though (ie crash). None of the other favourites teams have anywhere near the cobbles strength that Sky have, and only really BMC have the time trialing strength. If anything, it's a route that could largely discount Bardet and Quintana by the first week. Porte's a bit of an unknown quantity on cobbles, Uran likewise.

Barring a crash I'd say Froome is a huge favourite.

mididoctors

what sort of tour would rule froome out as a top favourite?

ridgerider

None...Murdoch would just tailor the team to whatever was necessary to deliver him to the right place at the right time for him to win.

RichN95.

mididoctors wrote:

what sort of tour would rule froome out as a top favourite?

One with a huge amount of individual time trialling a little in the way of mountain top finishes. (He was only a narrow favourite going into 2017 due to Porte's form)

No_Ta_Doctor

RichN95 wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

what sort of tour would rule froome out as a top favourite?

One with a huge amount of individual time trialling a little in the way of mountain top finishes. (He was only a narrow favourite going into 2017 due to Porte's form)

Even then he'd be at worst second favourite to Dumoulin.

DeVlaeminck

Take out all time trialling I think we'd have a route where he was one of a number of climbers who could win.

mididoctors

Ridgerider wrote:

None...Murdoch would just tailor the team to whatever was necessary to deliver him to the right place at the right time for him to win.

i'm more or less onboard with this.

No_Ta_Doctor

mididoctors wrote:

Ridgerider wrote:

None...Murdoch would just tailor the team to whatever was necessary to deliver him to the right place at the right time for him to win.

i'm more or less onboard with this.

More or less, though I fail to see Murdoch having anything to do with it. Sky already have a team packed with strong rouleur and grimpeur profiles.

andyp

inseine wrote:

From Cycling News;
Back in 1972, the peloton peloton lined up for a 28-kilometre stage (21 kilometres of total climbing) from Aix-les-Bains to Le Revard, where Cyrille Guimard out-sprinted Eddy Merckx to take stage honours.

There was an even shorter stage in 1972 I think, a stage from Bagneres-de-Luchon up the Peyresourde, 20 kms or so. It was mentioned in Daniel Friebe's book on Merckx.

inseine

andyp wrote:

inseine wrote:

From Cycling News;
Back in 1972, the peloton peloton lined up for a 28-kilometre stage (21 kilometres of total climbing) from Aix-les-Bains to Le Revard, where Cyrille Guimard out-sprinted Eddy Merckx to take stage honours.

There was an even shorter stage in 1972 I think, a stage from Bagneres-de-Luchon up the Peyresourde, 20 kms or so. It was mentioned in Daniel Friebe's book on Merckx.

A couiple of minutes of Wiki tells us it was 1971, 19.6km, Luchon to Superbagnères. Not even a split stage day though there were plenty of split days back then hence the super short stages.

Moss-JKP

First time poster here, only been watching live racing and keeping my eye on race results for 3 or 4 years now so go easy on me! I'm sure some of you purists aren't that keen on fans like myself, an unashamed Team Sky fan, but I try and keep a balanced opinion. They've done a hell of a lot for the sport in this country and I love having a British world tour team to support.

Anyway, onto the TDF route...

I actually think this will be Froome's toughest year. The reason? Dumoulin. At the Giro he was expected to crack near enough every day the road went uphill but he was more than a match for Quintana. It's also been a couple of years since we really saw Froome drop the pure climbers and put some serious time into them. It could be argued that he hasn't needed to so he's managed his recent GT wins in different ways, but I actually think it's because others have caught up and he can no longer blow them all away.

Couple that with what I see as Dumoulin's superior TT ability and I think Froome could struggle to gain enough time on him to be able to hold him off in the penultimate day TT (even though it is pretty short).

I hope Froome can do it and join the all time greats on 5 TDF wins. It could be that Dumoulin can't cope with the Sky train, but I think he'll be absolutely fine sat in the wheels. If that is the case it should make for great racing because Froome will know he has to take him on and attack more than he has done recently due to him not having the luxury of guaranteed time gains on the TT.