Maybe we are not doomed after all

pinno

A part of the solution (and it seems to be a long way off) is the large scale capacity to store electricity.

Wheelspinner

pinno said:

Years ago, the then govt. (under G Brown IIRC), increased the feed in tarriff from domestic renewables was set at 35p per kw/h.
There was a huge uptake of solar panels and since then, it has dwindled to 7p per kwh*. There's much less incentive for that initial big outlay.

*I beleive.

Why?

Much the same here, tariffs have been steadily reduced. Australia has quite a decent takeup of solar panels on the home roof, thanks to government handout subsidies mainly as well as the tariff. However that inevitably led to a lot of shonky companies getting in on the free money game, and now there are significant numbers of people with expensive solar systems which have failed spectacularly to perform as expected. Inverter failures, reduced output against claim, and more. We have 16 panels on the roof, capable of 5 kw output, but the very expensive inverter has failed, and surprise surprise the company which supplied it no longer exists. The “new technology” now means we’re unlikely to find a replacement unit that works with those panels, so would be up for a full “upgrade” (ha! Scam alert) instead.

In addition that feed-in tariff is likely to be removed altogether, and discussions are well advanced to replace it with a TAX instead as the utility companies basically can’t handle any further feed-in power to the network and it’s causing significant stability issues in the distribution network and requires yet more massive infrastructure investment to fix.

The home battery solutions are also not getting good feedback in some cases, *especially* everybody’s darling Tesla. Recent storms in Vic took out a lot of the poles and wires and plenty of people assuming they’d be fine with their solar charged Tesla battery backup quickly discovered otherwise. Some barely lasted a couple days before complete failure of the battery system. Guess how much help they got from the sales and marketing gurus claiming their multi-thousand dollar installation was the saviour of the planet green energy panacea?

I’ve a mate who installed one of the complete off-grid battery solutions in his little weekend cottage, at a cost of over 20 grand. The promise was an expected functional life of 15 years for the batteries. He got 6 years before the battery performance had degraded so much it was useless, and just for good measure he was slugged with a very hefty fee to recycle the batteries on top of the replacement cost quoted.

Like many, he binned the whole setup and wrote the cost off as a bad choice.

The renewables industry @TheBigBean is so actively promoting is full of promises that don’t meet reality yet, often by very wide margins.

And there’s so much money being thrown at it, that industry is also seemingly loaded with people just scamming as much of it as they can.

TheBigBean

With regard to your inverter that doesn't make much sense. The panels produce DC, the inverter converts it to AC. It is therefore independent of the panels and just an electrical device.

Lots of inverters didn't last as long as expected and were of dubious quality, so that doesn't surprise me.

Yes, the Aus grid is a bit messed up at the moment.

Wheelspinner

TheBigBean said:

With regard to your inverter that doesn't make much sense. The panels produce DC, the inverter converts it to AC. It is therefore independent of the panels and just an electrical device.

Lots of inverters didn't last as long as expected and were of dubious quality, so that doesn't surprise me.

Yes, the Aus grid is a bit messed up at the moment.

The short answer is apparently this particular inverter and panels (Chinese made) had some oddity in the earthing and somehow new panels are differently wired. Or something?

I'm hopeful we'll find a decent solution that is reliable and not outrageously expensive.

pinno

I still think that (part of) the solution is Hybrids. Theoretically, car emissions are dwarfed by the use of fossil fuels for energy but it is difficult to separate the fossil fuel consumption that drives the industry that manufactures cars and the industry that is not involved with the automotive industry.

https://www.clientearth.org/latest/latest-updates/stories/fossil-fuels-and-climate-change-the-facts/

I hope that erratic weather from drought to floods to forest fires will spur more action from governments and industry.
Perhaps, a massive crop failure in China would make for a very unhappy populace and actually force change because the profit motive currently exceeds conservation will.
At least the Biden presidency recognises climate change but whether this transpires into real action, we shall have to wait and see.
I do not know what disaster or string of disasters will actually make governments globally make real changes.

When does the acidification of the seas start to really impact on the oxygen producing organisms, thereby compounding CO2 levels?
When does collapsing marine eco-systems reach a critical point?

There are so many unknowns and it's all rather spooky.
I have been watching the Blue planet series again and the recovery of marine life in protected areas is remarkable. However, there aren't enough protected areas and there are suggestions that we could manage our seas a lot better and all prosper as a result.
Still, no international consensus.

I'm rambling...

elbowloh

Deliveries by cargobike in cities looks like the way forward.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/05/cargo-bikes-deliver-faster-and-cleaner-than-vans-study-finds

pblakeney

pinno said:

...
I do not know what disaster or string of disasters will actually make governments globally make real changes.
...

Could be a multitude of things but I think push will come to shove with rising sea levels flooding areas that they don't want flooded. Too late by then obviously.

Jezyboy

If the right are outraged by the number of immigrants making it into Europe now, they should imagine what it could be like with serious climate change.

pinno

elbowloh said:

Deliveries by cargobike in cities looks like the way forward.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/05/cargo-bikes-deliver-faster-and-cleaner-than-vans-study-finds

He's an unreliable stalker. [Sorry}

Yes but only a small contribution.
Although I think that a plethora of micro schemes may provide (some) macro solutions.

Pross

The Welsh news yesterday had an article about how communities are being "destroyed" because English companies are buying up farms to plant forests as part of a Welsh Government initiative to build a National Forest to help with carbon offsetting. As far as I can tell the issue isn't that the farms are being bought for planting woodland but that it is big 'English' investment companies doing the buying. With insular attitudes like that it is going to be even harder to try to improve things. One farmer retired and sold his farm then said it was heartbreaking the purchaser sold it on. It was embarrassing to watch. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58103603

elbowloh

If it's a Welsh Government initiative, why are companies buying the land? What does the company get out of buying the land and planting forests? Or is it for carbon offsetting?

Pross

elbowloh said:

If it's a Welsh Government initiative, why are companies buying the land? What does the company get out of buying the land and planting forests? Or is it for carbon offsetting?

Not sure of the details to be honest. It is for carbon offsetting as I understand it and there are grants available but I'm not fully sure how the investment companies expect to make money. Maybe in addition to any grants they sell the space to the companies that are planting trees as part of their cerbon offsetting programmes.

The "issue" though seems to be simply that the farms are falling into the hands of 'incomers' rather than the planned use of the land even though the farmers are very keen to tell everyone how they can no longer make enough money to keep their businesses going. The impression I got was they would be fine with the farms being planted as forest providing it is being done by someone born and raised within a 5 mile radius.

pangolin

Jezyboy said:

If the right are outraged by the number of immigrants making it into Europe now, they should imagine what it could be like with serious climate change.

Ah but the Channel will get wider, making it harder to cross.

TheBigBean

I've lost work for "not being Welsh enough".

Pross

TheBigBean said:

I've lost work for "not being Welsh enough".

Yeah there's still a bit of that around. My old company had to open a Cardiff office to win work from the Welsh offices of some very big National companies. Much as I enjoy a bit of banter around sport etc. there are still some (generally more rural) areas that are still incredibly insular to the point of embarrassment.

TheBigBean

Hydrogen consultation launched. Other than the tedious need for everything to be "world leading" it sounds like a good idea.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-government-launches-plan-for-a-world-leading-hydrogen-economy

TheBigBean

Have now read most of the publications and it is generally very good. The government is absolutely determined to kick start the hydrogen market.

This graph is very interesting. It shows the carbon impact of producing hydrogen with different tech and how this is expected to change.


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elbowloh

The ex-head of the hyrdogen fuel lobby as branded "blue-hydrogen" schemes pushed by the oil companies to be “not sustainable” and “make no sense at all” - leading him to leave the lobbying group.

Oil firms made ‘false claims’ on blue hydrogen costs, says ex-lobby boss

Chris Jackson believes companies promoted ‘unsustainable’ fossil gas projects to access billions in taxpayer subsidies

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/20/oil-firms-made-false-claims-on-blue-hydrogen-costs-says-ex-lobby-boss

TheBigBean

elbowloh said:

The ex-head of the hyrdogen fuel lobby as branded "blue-hydrogen" schemes pushed by the oil companies to be “not sustainable” and “make no sense at all” - leading him to leave the lobbying group.

Oil firms made ‘false claims’ on blue hydrogen costs, says ex-lobby boss

Chris Jackson believes companies promoted ‘unsustainable’ fossil gas projects to access billions in taxpayer subsidies

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/20/oil-firms-made-false-claims-on-blue-hydrogen-costs-says-ex-lobby-boss

The entire point of one of the consultations is define what a low carbon hydrgoen is. See graph above. The guardian could have published that graph.

lesfirth

Another view of the subject here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EA4tDYwNYo

pinno

^ interesting. Alarming really.

It's going to be some fight (if the will exists) to say to the fossil fuel producers to severely cut production.

TheBigBean

It shouldn't be a shock that blue hydrogen isn't as green as green hydrogen. There is a clue in the name.

The graph I posted above clearly shows that.

lesfirth

TheBigBean said:

It shouldn't be a shock that blue hydrogen isn't as green as green hydrogen. There is a clue in the name.

The graph I posted above clearly shows that.

At school the most difficult to do was to be the first to put your hand up when the teacher said," Anyone does not understand that?" The majority of the class didn't but they all thought they were the only dummy and everyone kept quiet.
I am putting my hand up. BigBean, your graph is as clear as mud to me.
Am I the only dummy?

TheBigBean

lesfirth said:

TheBigBean said:

It shouldn't be a shock that blue hydrogen isn't as green as green hydrogen. There is a clue in the name.

The graph I posted above clearly shows that.

At school the most difficult to do was to be the first to put your hand up when the teacher said," Anyone does not understand that?" The majority of the class didn't but they all thought they were the only dummy and everyone kept quiet.
I am putting my hand up. BigBean, your graph is as clear as mud to me.
Am I the only dummy?

I'm always happy to explain if there is any interest.

The graph shows 10 different ways to make hydrogen. These range from green hyrodgen to grey hydrogen as referenced in your video. It includes quite a few variants as well.

For each methodology, they show the range of carbon emissions expected and how this will change with time. So, for example, grid electroysis will produce less carbon in a few years when the grid is expected to be more decarbonised.

The red line going across is what they consider to be an acceptable level. Not perfect, but a decent start.

Your video is arguing that blue hydrogen (with CCS) isn't that great, but this is what the graph shows anyway. The video is also arguing that it should be worse than shown due to the way methane is considered.

TheBigBean

Norway interconnector came online today which means that the UK can use Norway's hydro power a bit like a battery.

pinno

Some reports say that the energy squeeze on China is partly due to their Carbon reduction commitment.
Can someone explain please?

TheBigBean

pinno said:

Some reports say that the energy squeeze on China is partly due to their Carbon reduction commitment.
Can someone explain please?

I thought they had similar problems to here. They are selling to consumers at prices lower than they can generate due the high coal/gas prices. Also, the government is trying not to open more coal power, so they are more dependent on gas.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

Norway interconnector came online today which means that the UK can use Norway's hydro power a bit like a battery.

If anybody else is intrigued by how that market works this is a remarkably succinct explanation
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trading-start-uk-norway-power-cable-both-markets-face-constraints-2021-09-30/

pblakeney

This snippet from the above neatly sums up our problems.

"On Friday, power will flow from Norway to the UK for all hours from 0800 CET (0600 GMT) with hourly prices in the UK reaching as high as 255.55 pounds per megawatt hour compared with 106.25 euros (91.65 pounds) per megawatt hour in NO2, Nord Pool data showed."

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

Norway interconnector came online today which means that the UK can use Norway's hydro power a bit like a battery.

If anybody else is intrigued by how that market works this is a remarkably succinct explanation
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trading-start-uk-norway-power-cable-both-markets-face-constraints-2021-09-30/

So power trading is a fairly niche commodity as it is instant - not easy to store it - so power trading desk are never shut.

Had a colleague helping a client find a shift trader. Office prank removed all Fs from shift in the report 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

“Doesn’t sound like you rate these traders”