Maybe we are not doomed after all

pblakeney

morstar said:

The technology is there to do this. Biggest problem would be anonymising the data so that you’re not just providing a log of your driving activity to any agency that wants it.

You say that but I think (not want) that black boxes will be compulsory within 15 years. I'd say 10 but want some leeway.

focuszing723

morstar said:

morstar said:

pblakeney said:

pinno said:

When the demand for petrol decreases as the uptake of EV's, ...

I meant to add my second point to this. The Government is going to see a massive drop in tax take from this, not to mention VED. That shortfall will be recouped from somewhere else. Think car charging will remain cheap? Or a real road tax?

I’d happily accept a real road tax for roads driven on.
The rate paid directly correlated to the vehicle driven, the type of road, time of day and road condition.
The technology is there to do this. Biggest problem would be anonymising the data so that you’re not just providing a log of your driving activity to any agency that wants it.

I’d call it a driving tax rather than road tax though.

Yeah, I think that would be a good idea. Pay for the wear and tear you create seems fair. Hauliers would have to be given some kind of break/assistance though as they are crucial to keeping supplies going (I'm sure there as other examples too).

Dorset_Boy

pblakeney said:

Wheelspinner said:

There’s a clue why we have so many cars…

Urban sprawl designed on the basis of the population using cars.
Cyclical problem.

Or the desire for space and not be crammed into streets of terraced houses.

Dorset_Boy

Given your typical urban residential street in the UK results in very few people being able to park outside their house, who will fund the charging infrastructure required? Where in the street will it be put without losing parking and pavement space? How will the cables be run from charge point to vehicle? Is there anything to stop the drunken student unplugging all the vehicles on their way home from a night out?

morstar

pblakeney said:

morstar said:

The technology is there to do this. Biggest problem would be anonymising the data so that you’re not just providing a log of your driving activity to any agency that wants it.

You say that but I think (not want) that black boxes will be compulsory within 15 years. I'd say 10 but want some leeway.

I think there is a strong case to be made for this but I really struggle to see this type of thing getting through parliament.
The motoring lobby (you know, the war on motorists brigade) will fight tooth and nail against such tech.
Limiters could stop speeding tomorrow if there was a will to make it happen. Cue the “accelerate out of trouble” argument.

morstar

focuszing723 said:

morstar said:

morstar said:

pblakeney said:

pinno said:

When the demand for petrol decreases as the uptake of EV's, ...

I meant to add my second point to this. The Government is going to see a massive drop in tax take from this, not to mention VED. That shortfall will be recouped from somewhere else. Think car charging will remain cheap? Or a real road tax?

I’d happily accept a real road tax for roads driven on.
The rate paid directly correlated to the vehicle driven, the type of road, time of day and road condition.
The technology is there to do this. Biggest problem would be anonymising the data so that you’re not just providing a log of your driving activity to any agency that wants it.

I’d call it a driving tax rather than road tax though.

Yeah, I think that would be a good idea. Pay for the wear and tear you create seems fair. Hauliers would have to be given some kind of break/assistance though as they are crucial to keeping supplies going (I'm sure there as other examples too).

Easy enough to associate a charging rate to a unique vehicle.
You could even have lorries paying less than a car on a motorway yet considerably more on a residential street in order to facilitate desirable behaviour.
The only limits would be in the legislation, not the available technology.

rjsterry

focuszing723 said:

That's a fair point about not having driveways.

Plenty of people without driveways still get charging points installed and just run the cable over the pavement.

Dorset_Boy

rjsterry said:

focuszing723 said:

That's a fair point about not having driveways.

Plenty of people without driveways still get charging points installed and just run the cable over the pavement.

H&S issues no?

Jezyboy

rjsterry said:

focuszing723 said:

That's a fair point about not having driveways.

Plenty of people without driveways still get charging points installed and just run the cable over the pavement.

Leaving a trip hazzard over the pavement is hardly community minded!

Jezyboy

Dorset_Boy said:

Given your typical urban residential street in the UK results in very few people being able to park outside their house, who will fund the charging infrastructure required? Where in the street will it be put without losing parking and pavement space? How will the cables be run from charge point to vehicle? Is there anything to stop the drunken student unplugging all the vehicles on their way home from a night out?

Where are these people taking their cars though? Presumably their journeys from the house end at some kind of car park rather than another residential road?

elbowloh

These are all issues that will be solved one way or another.

The change to all electric is coming, we really have no choice. The legislation for no new ICE cars has already been passed.

pangolin

Jezyboy said:

Dorset_Boy said:

Given your typical urban residential street in the UK results in very few people being able to park outside their house, who will fund the charging infrastructure required? Where in the street will it be put without losing parking and pavement space? How will the cables be run from charge point to vehicle? Is there anything to stop the drunken student unplugging all the vehicles on their way home from a night out?

Where are these people taking their cars though? Presumably their journeys from the house end at some kind of car park rather than another residential road?

That's true for some journeys but far from all. And takes away the benefits of charging at night.

TheBigBean

There are quite a few charging points in lamp posts now. The trip hazard needs to be sorted out, but only by ensuring people use protectors and are insured. The set up is nearly there for electric vehicles - it is only those that regularly drive long distances that will struggle.

The network of hydrogen filling stations is really bad though as is the choice of cars. This is where subsidies are really required.

Jezyboy

pangolin said:

Jezyboy said:

Dorset_Boy said:

Given your typical urban residential street in the UK results in very few people being able to park outside their house, who will fund the charging infrastructure required? Where in the street will it be put without losing parking and pavement space? How will the cables be run from charge point to vehicle? Is there anything to stop the drunken student unplugging all the vehicles on their way home from a night out?

Where are these people taking their cars though? Presumably their journeys from the house end at some kind of car park rather than another residential road?

That's true for some journeys but far from all. And takes away the benefits of charging at night.

Sure, but with ranges increasing it doesn't need to be all journeys, just enough.

Agree on the charging at night problem.

The much better solution would seem to be an uber service of electric self drivers...but that's a while different kettle of fish.

Dorset_Boy

Jezyboy said:

Dorset_Boy said:

Given your typical urban residential street in the UK results in very few people being able to park outside their house, who will fund the charging infrastructure required? Where in the street will it be put without losing parking and pavement space? How will the cables be run from charge point to vehicle? Is there anything to stop the drunken student unplugging all the vehicles on their way home from a night out?

Where are these people taking their cars though? Presumably their journeys from the house end at some kind of car park rather than another residential road?

I live in a village 6 miles from my office in the local small town. I park on a residential street in town with parking on only one side of the street. It works quite well most days as I use a parking space that will have been vacated by a resident, and we effectively swap over again later in the day.

The town in which I work could be considered a satellite town for Poole, and Bournemouth, with plenty also working in Salisbury and Dorchester. There will be hundreds of similar towns in the UK. A large number of those travelling probably don't park in a car park at the other end.

At home I park on the street as we don't have a drive. I could not get to and from work on public transport even though an A road runs through the village as there isn't really a service let alone one that would suit timings wise.

Jezyboy

So you'd do about 2 weeks of commuting before you'd need to worry about finding a charge point.

You could also... cycle

pblakeney

morstar said:

pblakeney said:

morstar said:

The technology is there to do this. Biggest problem would be anonymising the data so that you’re not just providing a log of your driving activity to any agency that wants it.

You say that but I think (not want) that black boxes will be compulsory within 15 years. I'd say 10 but want some leeway.

I think there is a strong case to be made for this but I really struggle to see this type of thing getting through parliament.
The motoring lobby (you know, the war on motorists brigade) will fight tooth and nail against such tech.
Limiters could stop speeding tomorrow if there was a will to make it happen. Cue the “accelerate out of trouble” argument.

A prediction, not a given. 😉
Starts off with a charge per mile, then speeding is added not as a restrictor but a fund builder, then... well ask anyone who has experience of having a black box fitted.

elbowloh

Some real world feedback rom EV owners

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/03/whats-the-fuss-no-fuss-readers-on-their-electric-vehicles

Its from the Guardian so will have a lefty tint...

Dorset_Boy

Jezyboy said:

So you'd do about 2 weeks of commuting before you'd need to worry about finding a charge point.

You could also... cycle

Actually i do occassionally, but I have no showering / washing facilities, so cycling is impractical 98% of the year given what i do.

rick_chasey

focuszing723 said:

That's a fair point about not having driveways.

I know a couple who live near me - no permit needed to park on our street. Spent a fortune doing up their electrics so they could charge up their car safely - only it’s not easy to get the spot by your house so they’re permanently stressed about nabbing the spot outside their house.

They rather regret the purchase.

focuszing723

rick_chasey said:

focuszing723 said:

That's a fair point about not having driveways.

I know a couple who live near me - no permit needed to park on our street. Spent a fortune doing up their electrics so they could charge up their car safely - only it’s not easy to get the spot by your house so they’re permanently stressed about nabbing the spot outside their house.

They rather regret the purchase.

Yeah, I can imagine that. I think it that case I would be more inclined to have a hybrid if I wanted the tech.

lesfirth

TheBigBean said:

The network of hydrogen filling stations is really bad though as is the choice of cars. This is where subsidies are really required.

Subsidies or money is a minor problem in establishing a network of hydrogen filling stations. Hydrogen production uses energy. Production uses more energy than you get in the hydrogen produced. The only way that hydrogen can be produced as a "green" fuel is to use the surplus of electricity generating capacity we will have from renewables, whenever, or if, we ever have that.

By the way BigBean, this morning all our wind mills were producing 2% of our demand. It is up to 5% now. (Gridwatch.co.uk)

This topic started with the BBC headline "Renewables provide more than half UK electricity for first time". That was for a very brief period one afternoon. If you only look at the headline you could think we are half way there. That was 4years ago. We are still far short of what that headline suggests .

TheBigBean

lesfirth said:

TheBigBean said:

The network of hydrogen filling stations is really bad though as is the choice of cars. This is where subsidies are really required.

Subsidies or money is a minor problem in establishing a network of hydrogen filling stations. Hydrogen production uses energy. Production uses more energy than you get in the hydrogen produced. The only way that hydrogen can be produced as a "green" fuel is to use the surplus of electricity generating capacity we will have from renewables, whenever, or if, we ever have that.

By the way BigBean, this morning all our wind mills were producing 2% of our demand. It is up to 5% now. (Gridwatch.co.uk)

This topic started with the BBC headline "Renewables provide more than half UK electricity for first time". That was for a very brief period one afternoon. If you only look at the headline you could think we are half way there. That was 4years ago. We are still far short of what that headline suggests .

Yes, it needs an elctrolyser and eventually needs a carbon free grid. That's possible. It needs kickstarting though as no one will use it as a fuel if they can't buy it.

pangolin

lesfirth said:

TheBigBean said:

The network of hydrogen filling stations is really bad though as is the choice of cars. This is where subsidies are really required.

Subsidies or money is a minor problem in establishing a network of hydrogen filling stations. Hydrogen production uses energy. Production uses more energy than you get in the hydrogen produced. The only way that hydrogen can be produced as a "green" fuel is to use the surplus of electricity generating capacity we will have from renewables, whenever, or if, we ever have that.

By the way BigBean, this morning all our wind mills were producing 2% of our demand. It is up to 5% now. (Gridwatch.co.uk)

This topic started with the BBC headline "Renewables provide more than half UK electricity for first time". That was for a very brief period one afternoon. If you only look at the headline you could think we are half way there. That was 4years ago. We are still far short of what that headline suggests .

Agree with your point about the 50% being a snapshot, but why isolate wind power to make the point? Solar is double that currently according to your link.

Currently wind 7%, solar 14%, renewables total 30%. You're doing exactly what you're complaining about and exaggerating the issue for effect, it just weakens your argument.

pinno

Years ago, the then govt. (under G Brown IIRC), increased the feed in tarriff from domestic renewables was set at 35p per kw/h.
There was a huge uptake of solar panels and since then, it has dwindled to 7p per kwh*. There's much less incentive for that initial big outlay.

*I beleive.

Why?

focuszing723

Investors are urging on plans by General Motors and Ford to spend tens of billions of dollars on electric vehicles, even as the carmakers capitalise on booming revenues from cars and trucks with traditional engines.

GM posted a record $4.1bn in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the second quarter, with low inventory driving higher pricing on popular — and more profitable — trucks and sport utility vehicles. Chief executive Mary Barra said that with strong demand from customers, low inventory could last until early next year.

Ford surprised investors last week when it reported a $561m second-quarter profit on surging demand for trucks and SUVs.

The companies will need all the profit they can earn to meet their new goals for building factories and hiring more software and electrical engineers as they shift to manufacturing electric vehicles. In June, GM again increased its planned spending on electric and autonomous vehicles, to $35bn by 2025, while Ford has committed $30bn over the same period.

https://www.ft.com/content/b4e9745f-24c9-4ddc-bae1-45e4a4a58022

It's a big shift towards EV's

TheBigBean

pinno said:

Years ago, the then govt. (under G Brown IIRC), increased the feed in tarriff from domestic renewables was set at 35p per kw/h.
There was a huge uptake of solar panels and since then, it has dwindled to 7p per kwh*. There's much less incentive for that initial big outlay.

*I beleive.

Why?

There are no FITs any more. The incentive to install is that you save on your electricity bill. Solar panels are a lot cheaper now.

For example, 10 years ago 1MW of panels would be close to £3m. Now it would be more like £150k.

surrey_commuter

pinno said:

Years ago, the then govt. (under G Brown IIRC), increased the feed in tarriff from domestic renewables was set at 35p per kw/h.
There was a huge uptake of solar panels and since then, it has dwindled to 7p per kwh*. There's much less incentive for that initial big outlay.

*I beleive.

Why?

To simplify the argument- the subsidies were being harvested by the rich and as the Govt has no money this meant that Mondeo Man was subsidising David Cameron’s father in law.

Like all these green initiatives there is a known cost, that is a debate that nobody is prepared to have so the can gets kicked down the road.

Mondeo Man can’t/won’t pay £12k for his non-gch which means those with the broadest shoulders will have to pay. So the top 10% will have to pay for their own and 9 other new non-gas heating systems.

Methinks Carrie Antoinette won’t be in power long enough for it to matter.

lesfirth

pangolin said:

lesfirth said:

TheBigBean said:

The network of hydrogen filling stations is really bad though as is the choice of cars. This is where subsidies are really required.

Subsidies or money is a minor problem in establishing a network of hydrogen filling stations. Hydrogen production uses energy. Production uses more energy than you get in the hydrogen produced. The only way that hydrogen can be produced as a "green" fuel is to use the surplus of electricity generating capacity we will have from renewables, whenever, or if, we ever have that.

By the way BigBean, this morning all our wind mills were producing 2% of our demand. It is up to 5% now. (Gridwatch.co.uk)

This topic started with the BBC headline "Renewables provide more than half UK electricity for first time". That was for a very brief period one afternoon. If you only look at the headline you could think we are half way there. That was 4years ago. We are still far short of what that headline suggests .

Agree with your point about the 50% being a snapshot, but why isolate wind power to make the point? Solar is double that currently according to your link.

Currently wind 7%, solar 14%, renewables total 30%. You're doing exactly what you're complaining about and exaggerating the issue for effect, it just weakens your argument.

I do not have an argument. My point on wind power was aimed at Bigbean. I was aware that I was being selective in the info I was using. Solar is quietly giving an increasing contribution to our energy needs. However it does not take Einstein to work out that solar generation at 10pm will be zero and that no matter how big the wind farms are if the wind does not blow they are useless. If at some future time we are depending on solar and wind for power generation we could ,one night, be sat in the dark with our overcoats on.
IMHO we will not all be doomed if we have a lot more nuclear generation and
carbon capture.

TheBigBean

lesfirth said:

pangolin said:

lesfirth said:

TheBigBean said:

The network of hydrogen filling stations is really bad though as is the choice of cars. This is where subsidies are really required.

Subsidies or money is a minor problem in establishing a network of hydrogen filling stations. Hydrogen production uses energy. Production uses more energy than you get in the hydrogen produced. The only way that hydrogen can be produced as a "green" fuel is to use the surplus of electricity generating capacity we will have from renewables, whenever, or if, we ever have that.

By the way BigBean, this morning all our wind mills were producing 2% of our demand. It is up to 5% now. (Gridwatch.co.uk)

This topic started with the BBC headline "Renewables provide more than half UK electricity for first time". That was for a very brief period one afternoon. If you only look at the headline you could think we are half way there. That was 4years ago. We are still far short of what that headline suggests .

Agree with your point about the 50% being a snapshot, but why isolate wind power to make the point? Solar is double that currently according to your link.

Currently wind 7%, solar 14%, renewables total 30%. You're doing exactly what you're complaining about and exaggerating the issue for effect, it just weakens your argument.

I do not have an argument. My point on wind power was aimed at Bigbean. I was aware that I was being selective in the info I was using. Solar is quietly giving an increasing contribution to our energy needs. However it does not take Einstein to work out that solar generation at 10pm will be zero and that no matter how big the wind farms are if the wind does not blow they are useless. If at some future time we are depending on solar and wind for power generation we could ,one night, be sat in the dark with our overcoats on.
IMHO we will not all be doomed if we have a lot more nuclear generation and
carbon capture.

Every proprosed solution to decarbonise the grid involves more nuclear and carbon capture.

Every proposed solution to decarbonise transport involves batteries and hyrdogen.

I have posted a graph several times in this thread of the increase in capacity required. I have also posted a graph showing possible mixes to provide this.