Election Predictions Please

surrey_commuter · June 2017

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahahaha. Badge of honour SC.

The individual words he writes all make sense it is just that they do not work in sentences.

surrey_commuter · June 2017

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Ah, here come the lapdogs.

Do you lot wake up in the morning chanting 'Brexit must go badly'

No need

Now how are you doing naming economic good things that will happen as a result of Brexit?

Now that will tell you why any economically literate person thinks it is a bad idea. The Graylings and Farage think that economic hardship is a price worth paying for greater sovereignity.

You really are a mug - you have no idea what you even voted for.

coopster_the_1st · June 2017

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

DavesNotHere wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

hopefully we ll have a more realistic brexit and seek a Norway/Swiss deal or even better forget the whole thing :shock:
.

I admire your optimism Mamba. IMHO i think this will just mean we will struggle to get anything agreed

We were and are only going to get what the EU wants to give us. We have a chance to lose TM's red lines me the chuckle brothers which can only help.

Not a chance. You really think the EU is going to close off such a large financial market? There will be negotiations, but to say EU has the final say in what they "wll give us" is completely wrong

how so? everything we want is theirs to give?

https://www.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20b ... 9?mhq5j=e1

as one example. EU exports to UK heavily so no they want form us as well. We are a massive market for them and as such they need a deal with us just as much as we need a deal with EU. At the end of the day all the talk is media blustering sound bites.

our trade balance is roughly equal but there economy is five times the size of ours so our need is five times greater than theirs. You are also discounting the importance they place on the preservation of the EU.

If you think it is a negotiation of equals just ask yourself who has decided the parameters?

we are approaching it like a bunch of amateurs to the extent that they wonder whether we are even serious

Disagree as they are 5 times as they also trade internally. But of a nation of 28 states we are a fifth? Sure, they'll throw that away.

Agreed there is the perception they need t put forward. However, negotiations are not that clear cut and as a trading partner we are massive for them as they are for us. So no I fundamentally disagree they hold the cards. Yes it appears out team are being muppets, but they also know they cannot simply let us leave without a deal as the likes of China (forget Trumpton for now) is the new block moving forward and China knows we are a big trading partner as well.

But it is relative. They acct for just under half of our exports we will acct for roughly 10% of their exports. That does not make it a negotiation of equals.

The Chinese economy is much larger than ours (as is USA) so they will fark us over in a trade deal. e need to do deals with people big enough to matter but small enough to push around.

We may be the 5th largest economy in the world but as a % we are tiny so yes we can be pushed around and or ignored

5th largest but less that 4% of world GDP

Graham is right - we should reconvene on Brexit thread

Indeed, different thread but comment was made here 4% (actually less), but still a massive market for trade. People should not simply roll over and give up thinking EU holds all the cards

http://www.economywatch.com/economic-st ... Total_PPP/

EU shrinks:

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shru ... d-economy/

UK as a percentage of the EU with 28 member states is therefore a major loss to EU trade. That means UK has a negotiating position and we are not beholden to the EU. We both need each other, hence .......

I wouldn't waste any more time Weezy. SC is an economic terrorist where he only wants to see bad things happen to the UK and there can never be any good economically from Brexit

Well Coopster you have failed to name a single expert who thinks that Brexit is a good idea economically (so I am in good company) so why don' t you name one thing good economically that will come out of Brexit in the next ten years.

One year on and you cannot find one economic metric to point to Brexit being bad for the UK.

You've been hoodwinked by these so-called experts. One day you'll wake up and realise economics is not an exact science.

How do you know an economic forecast has a sense of humour? They use a decimal point in their forecasts

surrey_commuter · June 2017

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

DavesNotHere wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

hopefully we ll have a more realistic brexit and seek a Norway/Swiss deal or even better forget the whole thing :shock:
.

I admire your optimism Mamba. IMHO i think this will just mean we will struggle to get anything agreed

We were and are only going to get what the EU wants to give us. We have a chance to lose TM's red lines me the chuckle brothers which can only help.

Not a chance. You really think the EU is going to close off such a large financial market? There will be negotiations, but to say EU has the final say in what they "wll give us" is completely wrong

how so? everything we want is theirs to give?

https://www.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20b ... 9?mhq5j=e1

as one example. EU exports to UK heavily so no they want form us as well. We are a massive market for them and as such they need a deal with us just as much as we need a deal with EU. At the end of the day all the talk is media blustering sound bites.

our trade balance is roughly equal but there economy is five times the size of ours so our need is five times greater than theirs. You are also discounting the importance they place on the preservation of the EU.

If you think it is a negotiation of equals just ask yourself who has decided the parameters?

we are approaching it like a bunch of amateurs to the extent that they wonder whether we are even serious

Disagree as they are 5 times as they also trade internally. But of a nation of 28 states we are a fifth? Sure, they'll throw that away.

Agreed there is the perception they need t put forward. However, negotiations are not that clear cut and as a trading partner we are massive for them as they are for us. So no I fundamentally disagree they hold the cards. Yes it appears out team are being muppets, but they also know they cannot simply let us leave without a deal as the likes of China (forget Trumpton for now) is the new block moving forward and China knows we are a big trading partner as well.

But it is relative. They acct for just under half of our exports we will acct for roughly 10% of their exports. That does not make it a negotiation of equals.

The Chinese economy is much larger than ours (as is USA) so they will fark us over in a trade deal. e need to do deals with people big enough to matter but small enough to push around.

We may be the 5th largest economy in the world but as a % we are tiny so yes we can be pushed around and or ignored

5th largest but less that 4% of world GDP

Graham is right - we should reconvene on Brexit thread

Indeed, different thread but comment was made here 4% (actually less), but still a massive market for trade. People should not simply roll over and give up thinking EU holds all the cards

http://www.economywatch.com/economic-st ... Total_PPP/

EU shrinks:

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shru ... d-economy/

UK as a percentage of the EU with 28 member states is therefore a major loss to EU trade. That means UK has a negotiating position and we are not beholden to the EU. We both need each other, hence .......

I wouldn't waste any more time Weezy. SC is an economic terrorist where he only wants to see bad things happen to the UK and there can never be any good economically from Brexit

Well Coopster you have failed to name a single expert who thinks that Brexit is a good idea economically (so I am in good company) so why don' t you name one thing good economically that will come out of Brexit in the next ten years.

One year on and you cannot find one economic metric to point to Brexit being bad for the UK.

You've been hoodwinked by the non-experts. One day you'll wake up and realise economics is not an exact science.

How do you know an economic forecast has a sense of humour? They use a decimal point in their forecasts

The bit on the end makes no sense.

I am guessing this is what you mean by economic metric

Brexit has not happened yet and inflation has soared to nearly 3% due to the fall in the pound caused by the Brexit vote. This means people have less money and there is increasing evidence that this is slowing the consumer led growth in the economy with Q1 growth at 0.2% taking us below Italy to make us the worse performing economy in the G7. Oh and early figures for construction and manufacturing look bad for last month.

The worsening economic data could have influenced TM's timing of the election and could well encourage them to go again before things get bad in the Autumn.

coopster_the_1st · June 2017

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

DavesNotHere wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

hopefully we ll have a more realistic brexit and seek a Norway/Swiss deal or even better forget the whole thing :shock:
.

I admire your optimism Mamba. IMHO i think this will just mean we will struggle to get anything agreed

We were and are only going to get what the EU wants to give us. We have a chance to lose TM's red lines me the chuckle brothers which can only help.

Not a chance. You really think the EU is going to close off such a large financial market? There will be negotiations, but to say EU has the final say in what they "wll give us" is completely wrong

how so? everything we want is theirs to give?

https://www.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20b ... 9?mhq5j=e1

as one example. EU exports to UK heavily so no they want form us as well. We are a massive market for them and as such they need a deal with us just as much as we need a deal with EU. At the end of the day all the talk is media blustering sound bites.

our trade balance is roughly equal but there economy is five times the size of ours so our need is five times greater than theirs. You are also discounting the importance they place on the preservation of the EU.

If you think it is a negotiation of equals just ask yourself who has decided the parameters?

we are approaching it like a bunch of amateurs to the extent that they wonder whether we are even serious

Disagree as they are 5 times as they also trade internally. But of a nation of 28 states we are a fifth? Sure, they'll throw that away.

Agreed there is the perception they need t put forward. However, negotiations are not that clear cut and as a trading partner we are massive for them as they are for us. So no I fundamentally disagree they hold the cards. Yes it appears out team are being muppets, but they also know they cannot simply let us leave without a deal as the likes of China (forget Trumpton for now) is the new block moving forward and China knows we are a big trading partner as well.

But it is relative. They acct for just under half of our exports we will acct for roughly 10% of their exports. That does not make it a negotiation of equals.

The Chinese economy is much larger than ours (as is USA) so they will fark us over in a trade deal. e need to do deals with people big enough to matter but small enough to push around.

We may be the 5th largest economy in the world but as a % we are tiny so yes we can be pushed around and or ignored

5th largest but less that 4% of world GDP

Graham is right - we should reconvene on Brexit thread

Indeed, different thread but comment was made here 4% (actually less), but still a massive market for trade. People should not simply roll over and give up thinking EU holds all the cards

http://www.economywatch.com/economic-st ... Total_PPP/

EU shrinks:

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shru ... d-economy/

UK as a percentage of the EU with 28 member states is therefore a major loss to EU trade. That means UK has a negotiating position and we are not beholden to the EU. We both need each other, hence .......

I wouldn't waste any more time Weezy. SC is an economic terrorist where he only wants to see bad things happen to the UK and there can never be any good economically from Brexit

Well Coopster you have failed to name a single expert who thinks that Brexit is a good idea economically (so I am in good company) so why don' t you name one thing good economically that will come out of Brexit in the next ten years.

One year on and you cannot find one economic metric to point to Brexit being bad for the UK.

You've been hoodwinked by the non-experts. One day you'll wake up and realise economics is not an exact science.

How do you know an economic forecaster has a sense of humour? They use a decimal point in their forecasts

The bit on the end makes no sense.

I am guessing this is what you mean by economic metric

Brexit has not happened yet and inflation has soared to nearly 3% due to the fall in the pound caused by the Brexit vote. This means people have less money and there is increasing evidence that this is slowing the consumer led growth in the economy with Q1 growth at 0.2% taking us below Italy to make us the worse performing economy in the G7. Oh and early figures for construction and manufacturing look bad for last month.

The worsening economic data could have influenced TM's timing of the election and could well encourage them to go again before things get bad in the Autumn.

The last sentence is a jokey statement on how inaccurate economic forecasting is.

Oooohhhh, nearly 3%. That's not even at the BoE letter writing threshold!

Under 2% inflation was bad for our economy according to the BoE. Are they expert enough for you to accept that?

Now we are between 2-3% and you making it out like we are heading for hyperinflation...

You have fully demonstrated the point I was making. You will try to spin 'normal' as being 'bad' and then put the blame on Brexit.

rjsterry · June 2017

Arrrgh! Stop quoting the entire conversation each time - the thread is unreadable.

rick_chasey · June 2017

If inflation is at 3% it is over the threshold and they do have to write the letter.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary ... ework.aspx

The inflation target
The inflation target of 2% is expressed in terms of an annual rate of inflation based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The remit is not to achieve the lowest possible inflation rate. Inflation below the target of 2% is judged to be just as bad as inflation above the target. The inflation target is therefore symmetrical.

If the target is missed by more than 1 percentage point on either side – i.e. if the annual rate of CPI inflation is more than 3% or less than 1% – the Governor of the Bank must write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining the reasons why inflation has increased or fallen to such an extent and what the Bank proposes to do to ensure inflation comes back to the target.

surrey_commuter · June 2017

I never mentioned hyperinflation. The problem is that it is outstripping earnings growth.

So you can not tell me an economic benefit of Brexit - let me know when the penny drops.

FocusZing · June 2017

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

DavesNotHere wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

hopefully we ll have a more realistic brexit and seek a Norway/Swiss deal or even better forget the whole thing :shock:
.

I admire your optimism Mamba. IMHO i think this will just mean we will struggle to get anything agreed

We were and are only going to get what the EU wants to give us. We have a chance to lose TM's red lines me the chuckle brothers which can only help.

Not a chance. You really think the EU is going to close off such a large financial market? There will be negotiations, but to say EU has the final say in what they "wll give us" is completely wrong

how so? everything we want is theirs to give?

https://www.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20b ... 9?mhq5j=e1

as one example. EU exports to UK heavily so no they want form us as well. We are a massive market for them and as such they need a deal with us just as much as we need a deal with EU. At the end of the day all the talk is media blustering sound bites.

our trade balance is roughly equal but there economy is five times the size of ours so our need is five times greater than theirs. You are also discounting the importance they place on the preservation of the EU.

If you think it is a negotiation of equals just ask yourself who has decided the parameters?

we are approaching it like a bunch of amateurs to the extent that they wonder whether we are even serious

Disagree as they are 5 times as they also trade internally. But of a nation of 28 states we are a fifth? Sure, they'll throw that away.

Agreed there is the perception they need t put forward. However, negotiations are not that clear cut and as a trading partner we are massive for them as they are for us. So no I fundamentally disagree they hold the cards. Yes it appears out team are being muppets, but they also know they cannot simply let us leave without a deal as the likes of China (forget Trumpton for now) is the new block moving forward and China knows we are a big trading partner as well.

But it is relative. They acct for just under half of our exports we will acct for roughly 10% of their exports. That does not make it a negotiation of equals.

The Chinese economy is much larger than ours (as is USA) so they will fark us over in a trade deal. e need to do deals with people big enough to matter but small enough to push around.

We may be the 5th largest economy in the world but as a % we are tiny so yes we can be pushed around and or ignored

5th largest but less that 4% of world GDP

Graham is right - we should reconvene on Brexit thread

Indeed, different thread but comment was made here 4% (actually less), but still a massive market for trade. People should not simply roll over and give up thinking EU holds all the cards

http://www.economywatch.com/economic-st ... Total_PPP/

EU shrinks:

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shru ... d-economy/

UK as a percentage of the EU with 28 member states is therefore a major loss to EU trade. That means UK has a negotiating position and we are not beholden to the EU. We both need each other, hence .......

I wouldn't waste any more time Weezy. SC is an economic terrorist where he only wants to see bad things happen to the UK and there can never be any good economically from Brexit

Well Coopster you have failed to name a single expert who thinks that Brexit is a good idea economically (so I am in good company) so why don' t you name one thing good economically that will come out of Brexit in the next ten years.

One year on and you cannot find one economic metric to point to Brexit being bad for the UK.

You've been hoodwinked by these so-called experts. One day you'll wake up and realise economics is not an exact science.

How do you know an economic forecast has a sense of humour? They use a decimal point in their forecasts

Exactly.

letap73 · June 2017

Please give an economic/political metric that the impending Brexit has improved our political/economic standing

FocusZing · June 2017

FocusZing wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

WeezySwiss wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

DavesNotHere wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

hopefully we ll have a more realistic brexit and seek a Norway/Swiss deal or even better forget the whole thing :shock:
.

I admire your optimism Mamba. IMHO i think this will just mean we will struggle to get anything agreed

We were and are only going to get what the EU wants to give us. We have a chance to lose TM's red lines me the chuckle brothers which can only help.

Not a chance. You really think the EU is going to close off such a large financial market? There will be negotiations, but to say EU has the final say in what they "wll give us" is completely wrong

how so? everything we want is theirs to give?

https://www.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20b ... 9?mhq5j=e1

as one example. EU exports to UK heavily so no they want form us as well. We are a massive market for them and as such they need a deal with us just as much as we need a deal with EU. At the end of the day all the talk is media blustering sound bites.

our trade balance is roughly equal but there economy is five times the size of ours so our need is five times greater than theirs. You are also discounting the importance they place on the preservation of the EU.

If you think it is a negotiation of equals just ask yourself who has decided the parameters?

we are approaching it like a bunch of amateurs to the extent that they wonder whether we are even serious

Disagree as they are 5 times as they also trade internally. But of a nation of 28 states we are a fifth? Sure, they'll throw that away.

Agreed there is the perception they need t put forward. However, negotiations are not that clear cut and as a trading partner we are massive for them as they are for us. So no I fundamentally disagree they hold the cards. Yes it appears out team are being muppets, but they also know they cannot simply let us leave without a deal as the likes of China (forget Trumpton for now) is the new block moving forward and China knows we are a big trading partner as well.

But it is relative. They acct for just under half of our exports we will acct for roughly 10% of their exports. That does not make it a negotiation of equals.

The Chinese economy is much larger than ours (as is USA) so they will fark us over in a trade deal. e need to do deals with people big enough to matter but small enough to push around.

We may be the 5th largest economy in the world but as a % we are tiny so yes we can be pushed around and or ignored

5th largest but less that 4% of world GDP

Graham is right - we should reconvene on Brexit thread

Indeed, different thread but comment was made here 4% (actually less), but still a massive market for trade. People should not simply roll over and give up thinking EU holds all the cards

http://www.economywatch.com/economic-st ... Total_PPP/

EU shrinks:

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shru ... d-economy/

UK as a percentage of the EU with 28 member states is therefore a major loss to EU trade. That means UK has a negotiating position and we are not beholden to the EU. We both need each other, hence .......

I wouldn't waste any more time Weezy. SC is an economic terrorist where he only wants to see bad things happen to the UK and there can never be any good economically from Brexit

Well Coopster you have failed to name a single expert who thinks that Brexit is a good idea economically (so I am in good company) so why don' t you name one thing good economically that will come out of Brexit in the next ten years.

One year on and you cannot find one economic metric to point to Brexit being bad for the UK.

You've been hoodwinked by these so-called experts. One day you'll wake up and realise economics is not an exact science.

How do you know an economic forecast has a sense of humour? They use a decimal point in their forecasts

Exactly.

letap73 wrote:

Please give an economic/political metric that the impending Brexit has improved our political/economic standing

Fishing.

Election Predictions Please

Comments

Categories