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Giro 2017: Stage 21: Monza – Milano 29.3 km ITT

blazing_saddlesblazing_saddles Posts: 14,029
edited June 2017 in Pro race
I will put this up early as penance for miss hearing St Tom of the Dump. :P

Stage 21: Monza – Milano 29.3 km ITT

START TIME: TBD

The start of the ITT is set on the home straight of the Autodromo Nazionale Monza (already stage twon in 1949 and 1985). After completing one lap of the circuit, the stage course takes the pit lane and passes behind the paddocks to enter the Monza Park. The route then emerges from Villa Reale (first time split), then proceeds along wide, straight and well-paved avenues. In Sesto San Giovanni, the route takes the railway underpass. The second time split is taken upon entering Viale Italia. From here on, the course runs almost straight up to 2 km from the finish in Piazza Duomo. As far as Milan is concerned, it counts 8 stages with start and finish, 47 starts and 77 arrivals (last arrival in 2015). In the stage finale, the route first runs on wide avenues, and then on narrowed roads over the last few hundred metres, with several consecutive 90-degree turns over the last 100 - 150 metres, before entering Piazza Duomo. The home straight (150 m) is on 6-m wide stone-paved road.
Start:
608093d1315803547-f1-2011-italian-grand-prix-monza-ferr_mass_monz_201141.jpg
Finish:
76873_EN_Luxembourg-Milan-cheap.jpg

Map:-
T21_Milano_plan-2.jpg

Profile:-
T21_Milano_alt-2.jpg

The final final Kms:-
T21_Milano_ukm_web-1.jpg
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
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Posts

  • above_the_cowsabove_the_cows Posts: 10,862
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.
    Correlation is not causation.
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,258
    Dumoulin might fit a massive 55 ring at the front and could in principle hit an average speed not far from 55 km/h... Quintana doesn't have the watts to go that fast. It is a course for big TT beasts who can churn out 500 Watt.

    On paper Dumoulin could take anything between 2 and 5 seconds per km, so anything between 60 and 150 sec. On paper he will lift the trophy tomorrow...

    Then we will see...

    Almost more interesting the battle for the podium and the battle for the white jersey

    It's all still incredibly open... imagine Dumoulin having a mechanical, would you rule out Nibali in pink?
  • blazing_saddlesblazing_saddles Posts: 14,029
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.

    Not unheard of in Italy.
    Almost as if Quintana was in the driving seat.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • 6wheels6wheels Posts: 404
    @Blazing,

    Thanks for putting these up for the last three plus weeks. :)
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 5,608
    I agree this is Dumoulin's to lose but to try and inject a bit of uncertainty a TTT of Dumoulin, Jungles et al couldn't pull back Quintana, Nibali and Pinot today so just maybe in the last week of a grand tour things may not go to form.
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  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,258
    Whoever wins will be a deserving winner...they've all bagged at least one stage and showed flare and panache at some point in the race.

    On balance Dumoulin is the most deserving, as technically this wasn't his race and going up Oropa he was outstanding
  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 8,084
    I've never been so excited for a TT
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,172
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.

    Probably a cyclist driving they always go the wrong way down a one way street.
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,172
    What's the thinking for the winning time in this one? Something like 34 minutes?
  • RonBRonB Posts: 3,984
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.

    Not unheard of in Italy.
    Almost as if Quintana was in the driving seat.

    Tis a Ferrari. In Italy. Therefore it is all the other cars that are going the wrong way
  • shockedsoshockedshockedsoshocked Posts: 3,860
    Pross wrote:
    What's the thinking for the winning time in this one? Something like 34 minutes?

    I'm gonna hope Tommy D romps it with a <33min ;)
    "A cyclist has nothing to lose but his chain"

    PTP Runner Up 2015
  • larkimlarkim Posts: 2,279
    Do we know the start times?
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  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 22,914
    edited May 2017
    Delete - wrong thread
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • FocusZingFocusZing Posts: 4,416
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I've never been so excited for a TT

    Yeah, normally censored unless they are on the Isle of Man and have an engine.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 22,914
    Odds for the overall win (PaddyPower)

    Dumoulin 1/4
    Quintana 7/1
    Pinot 12/1
    Nibali 16/1
    Zakarin 125/1

    I've had a bet at 6/1 on Zakarin making the podium.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • onyourrightonyourright Posts: 509
    edited May 2017
    I think Quintana at 7/1 is good odds for the punter. DeVlaeminck mentioned the effective time trial at the end of today’s stage. Tired bodies. When Dumoulin put over 4 seconds per km into Quintana in the first time trial, Quintana was (a) riding into form that he presumably has more of now despite appearances, and (b) not riding flat-out: I saw him take a drink after a corner just when he should have been accelerating hard.

    It’s going to be about 29°C and sunny. How does Dumoulin do in heat?
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,464
    Projected time gaps based on secs/KM to Dumoulin on the first TT


    Dumoulion -
    Jungels -41.9 -1.4
    Nibali -95.1 -3.2
    Moolema -102.6 -3.4
    Zakarin -104.1 -3.5
    Yates -119.1 -4.0
    Pinot -121.3 -4.1
    Quintana -129.5 -4.3
    Pozzovivo -140.0 -4.7
    Formolo -182.7 -6.1


    (my calcs so any errors are mine)


    Did Quintana have a bad day on the first TT?
    Who will be suffer the greatest deterioration in performance after a 3 week tour?
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  • ProssPross Posts: 22,172
    I think Quintana at 7/1 is good odds for the punter. DeVlaeminck mentioned the effective time trial at the end of today’s stage. Tired bodies. When Dumoulin put over 4 seconds per km into Quintana in the first time trial, Quintana was (a) riding into form that he presumably has more of now despite appearances, and (b) not riding flat-out: I saw him take a drink after a corner just when he should have been accelerating hard.

    It’s going to be about 29°C and sunny. How does Dumoulin do in heat?

    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana and I think Nibali has the beating of him too.
  • RonBRonB Posts: 3,984
    TWH - If I have the context right I fear that might be Jan Hirt, which would be a shame because he & the team, rather under the radar because of the main GC battle, have had a cracking Giro
  • onyourrightonyourright Posts: 509
    Pross wrote:
    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana
    Now that’s what I call insight!

    The question is will he to the tune of 7/1 odds for Quintana. The last time trial had several kilometres into a raging headwind. Dumoulin rode it like his Giro depended on it (as everyone believed at the time), while Quintana sipped water coming out of corners. It was somewhat uphill, but with hindsight that has not proved to be a Dumoulin weakness.

    Obviously I’m not saying Quintana is likely to remain in pink tomorrow. I’m commenting on those odds.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 22,914
    RonB wrote:
    TWH - If I have the context right I fear that might be Jan Hirt, which would be a shame because he & the team, rather under the radar because of the main GC battle, have had a cracking Giro
    There was a point today when Hirt was riding on the front of a chasing group and I wondered who he has signed for next year. He's clearly too good for CCC.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 22,914
    Pross wrote:
    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana
    Now that’s what I call insight!

    The question is will he to the tune of 7/1 odds for Quintana. The last time trial had several kilometres into a raging headwind. Dumoulin rode it like his Giro depended on it (as everyone believed at the time), while Quintana sipped water coming out of corners. It was somewhat uphill, but with hindsight that has not proved to be a Dumoulin weakness.

    Obviously I’m not saying Quintana is likely to remain in pink tomorrow. I’m commenting on those odds.
    I think you would struggle to find a flat time trial that Quintana has finished within one minute of the leading GC rider (excepting the time he beat Porte on his local Basque roads in the rain)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,172
    Pross wrote:
    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana
    Now that’s what I call insight!

    The question is will he to the tune of 7/1 odds for Quintana. The last time trial had several kilometres into a raging headwind. Dumoulin rode it like his Giro depended on it (as everyone believed at the time), while Quintana sipped water coming out of corners. It was somewhat uphill, but with hindsight that has not proved to be a Dumoulin weakness.

    Obviously I’m not saying Quintana is likely to remain in pink tomorrow. I’m commenting on those odds.

    I'd rather take Zakarin at 125/1 if you're working on that logic.
  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 8,084
    Dutch fans have the best songs. I'm sing the "we beat Nibali" one to myself.
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Come on Tom !!

    Nibbles is the worry for me, he can producer a blinder when he needs to.

    Need have a small G&T to calm my nerves, a mere 6 hours before kick off...
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • inseineinseine Posts: 5,609
    If Quintana ends up without even a podium position the Giro / Tour double is going to look unwise. He must have known that with all these TT kms it wasn't the right Giro for him.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,780 Lives Here
    I expect the TT to be pretty close.

    Final day TT is an odd thing, especially after this last week.
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    I expect the TT to be pretty close.
    .
    I expect it to be VERY close, I think big Tom's on his knees.... the question is whether he can throw off the fatigue of the last 3 stages and pull out a stunning TT.... big ask.
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • milton50milton50 Posts: 3,892
    If someone were to tell me that Quintana will not be on the podium by the end of today I wouldn't be that surprised.
  • milton50milton50 Posts: 3,892
    Start times of the top 10 (local time)

    153 Davide Formolo (Ita) Cannondale-Drapac 16:29:00
    154 Bob Jungels (Lux) Quick-Step Floors 16:32:00
    155 Adam Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 16:35:00
    156 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Trek-Segafredo 16:38:00
    157 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) AG2R 16:41:00
    158 Ilnur Zakarin (Rus) Katusha-Alpecin 16:44:00
    159 Tom Dumoulin (Ned) Team Sunweb 16:47:00
    160 Thibaut Pinot (Fra) FDJ 16:50:00
    161 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Bahrain-Merida 16:53:00
    162 Nairo Quintana (Col) Movistar Team 16:56:00
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