Giro 2017: Stage 21: Monza – Milano 29.3 km ITT

blazing_saddles
blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
edited June 2017 in Pro race
I will put this up early as penance for miss hearing St Tom of the Dump. :P

Stage 21: Monza – Milano 29.3 km ITT

START TIME: TBD
The start of the ITT is set on the home straight of the Autodromo Nazionale Monza (already stage twon in 1949 and 1985). After completing one lap of the circuit, the stage course takes the pit lane and passes behind the paddocks to enter the Monza Park. The route then emerges from Villa Reale (first time split), then proceeds along wide, straight and well-paved avenues. In Sesto San Giovanni, the route takes the railway underpass. The second time split is taken upon entering Viale Italia. From here on, the course runs almost straight up to 2 km from the finish in Piazza Duomo. As far as Milan is concerned, it counts 8 stages with start and finish, 47 starts and 77 arrivals (last arrival in 2015). In the stage finale, the route first runs on wide avenues, and then on narrowed roads over the last few hundred metres, with several consecutive 90-degree turns over the last 100 - 150 metres, before entering Piazza Duomo. The home straight (150 m) is on 6-m wide stone-paved road.
Start:
608093d1315803547-f1-2011-italian-grand-prix-monza-ferr_mass_monz_201141.jpg
Finish:
76873_EN_Luxembourg-Milan-cheap.jpg

Map:-
T21_Milano_plan-2.jpg

Profile:-
T21_Milano_alt-2.jpg

The final final Kms:-
T21_Milano_ukm_web-1.jpg
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
«1345678

Comments

  • above_the_cows
    above_the_cows Posts: 11,406
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.
    Correlation is not causation.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,321
    Dumoulin might fit a massive 55 ring at the front and could in principle hit an average speed not far from 55 km/h... Quintana doesn't have the watts to go that fast. It is a course for big TT beasts who can churn out 500 Watt.

    On paper Dumoulin could take anything between 2 and 5 seconds per km, so anything between 60 and 150 sec. On paper he will lift the trophy tomorrow...

    Then we will see...

    Almost more interesting the battle for the podium and the battle for the white jersey

    It's all still incredibly open... imagine Dumoulin having a mechanical, would you rule out Nibali in pink?
    left the forum March 2023
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    Above The Cows wrote:
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.

    Not unheard of in Italy.
    Almost as if Quintana was in the driving seat.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • 6wheels
    6wheels Posts: 411
    @Blazing,

    Thanks for putting these up for the last three plus weeks. :)
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,107
    I agree this is Dumoulin's to lose but to try and inject a bit of uncertainty a TTT of Dumoulin, Jungles et al couldn't pull back Quintana, Nibali and Pinot today so just maybe in the last week of a grand tour things may not go to form.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,321
    Whoever wins will be a deserving winner...they've all bagged at least one stage and showed flare and panache at some point in the race.

    On balance Dumoulin is the most deserving, as technically this wasn't his race and going up Oropa he was outstanding
    left the forum March 2023
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,440
    I've never been so excited for a TT
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,540
    Above The Cows wrote:
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.

    Probably a cyclist driving they always go the wrong way down a one way street.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,540
    What's the thinking for the winning time in this one? Something like 34 minutes?
  • RonB
    RonB Posts: 3,984
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    Above The Cows wrote:
    One of those cars is going the wrong way.

    Not unheard of in Italy.
    Almost as if Quintana was in the driving seat.

    Tis a Ferrari. In Italy. Therefore it is all the other cars that are going the wrong way
  • shockedsoshocked
    shockedsoshocked Posts: 4,021
    Pross wrote:
    What's the thinking for the winning time in this one? Something like 34 minutes?

    I'm gonna hope Tommy D romps it with a <33min ;)
    "A cyclist has nothing to lose but his chain"

    PTP Runner Up 2015
  • larkim
    larkim Posts: 2,485
    Do we know the start times?
    2015 Canyon Nerve AL 6.0 (son #1's)
    2011 Specialized Hardrock Sport Disc (son #4s)
    2013 Decathlon Triban 3 (red) (mine)
    2019 Hoy Bonaly 26" Disc (son #2s)
    2018 Voodoo Bizango (mine)
    2018 Voodoo Maji (wife's)
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,259
    edited May 2017
    Delete - wrong thread
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • FocusZing
    FocusZing Posts: 4,373
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I've never been so excited for a TT

    Yeah, normally sh1t unless they are on the Isle of Man and have an engine.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,259
    Odds for the overall win (PaddyPower)

    Dumoulin 1/4
    Quintana 7/1
    Pinot 12/1
    Nibali 16/1
    Zakarin 125/1

    I've had a bet at 6/1 on Zakarin making the podium.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • onyourright
    onyourright Posts: 509
    edited May 2017
    I think Quintana at 7/1 is good odds for the punter. DeVlaeminck mentioned the effective time trial at the end of today’s stage. Tired bodies. When Dumoulin put over 4 seconds per km into Quintana in the first time trial, Quintana was (a) riding into form that he presumably has more of now despite appearances, and (b) not riding flat-out: I saw him take a drink after a corner just when he should have been accelerating hard.

    It’s going to be about 29°C and sunny. How does Dumoulin do in heat?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,448
    Projected time gaps based on secs/KM to Dumoulin on the first TT


    Dumoulion -
    Jungels -41.9 -1.4
    Nibali -95.1 -3.2
    Moolema -102.6 -3.4
    Zakarin -104.1 -3.5
    Yates -119.1 -4.0
    Pinot -121.3 -4.1
    Quintana -129.5 -4.3
    Pozzovivo -140.0 -4.7
    Formolo -182.7 -6.1


    (my calcs so any errors are mine)


    Did Quintana have a bad day on the first TT?
    Who will be suffer the greatest deterioration in performance after a 3 week tour?
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,540
    OnYourRight wrote:
    I think Quintana at 7/1 is good odds for the punter. DeVlaeminck mentioned the effective time trial at the end of today’s stage. Tired bodies. When Dumoulin put over 4 seconds per km into Quintana in the first time trial, Quintana was (a) riding into form that he presumably has more of now despite appearances, and (b) not riding flat-out: I saw him take a drink after a corner just when he should have been accelerating hard.

    It’s going to be about 29°C and sunny. How does Dumoulin do in heat?

    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana and I think Nibali has the beating of him too.
  • RonB
    RonB Posts: 3,984
    TWH - If I have the context right I fear that might be Jan Hirt, which would be a shame because he & the team, rather under the radar because of the main GC battle, have had a cracking Giro
  • onyourright
    onyourright Posts: 509
    Pross wrote:
    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana
    Now that’s what I call insight!

    The question is will he to the tune of 7/1 odds for Quintana. The last time trial had several kilometres into a raging headwind. Dumoulin rode it like his Giro depended on it (as everyone believed at the time), while Quintana sipped water coming out of corners. It was somewhat uphill, but with hindsight that has not proved to be a Dumoulin weakness.

    Obviously I’m not saying Quintana is likely to remain in pink tomorrow. I’m commenting on those odds.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,259
    RonB wrote:
    TWH - If I have the context right I fear that might be Jan Hirt, which would be a shame because he & the team, rather under the radar because of the main GC battle, have had a cracking Giro
    There was a point today when Hirt was riding on the front of a chasing group and I wondered who he has signed for next year. He's clearly too good for CCC.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,259
    OnYourRight wrote:
    Pross wrote:
    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana
    Now that’s what I call insight!

    The question is will he to the tune of 7/1 odds for Quintana. The last time trial had several kilometres into a raging headwind. Dumoulin rode it like his Giro depended on it (as everyone believed at the time), while Quintana sipped water coming out of corners. It was somewhat uphill, but with hindsight that has not proved to be a Dumoulin weakness.

    Obviously I’m not saying Quintana is likely to remain in pink tomorrow. I’m commenting on those odds.
    I think you would struggle to find a flat time trial that Quintana has finished within one minute of the leading GC rider (excepting the time he beat Porte on his local Basque roads in the rain)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,540
    OnYourRight wrote:
    Pross wrote:
    Even if Tom only gains time at half the rate he did in the first TT he still beats Quintana
    Now that’s what I call insight!

    The question is will he to the tune of 7/1 odds for Quintana. The last time trial had several kilometres into a raging headwind. Dumoulin rode it like his Giro depended on it (as everyone believed at the time), while Quintana sipped water coming out of corners. It was somewhat uphill, but with hindsight that has not proved to be a Dumoulin weakness.

    Obviously I’m not saying Quintana is likely to remain in pink tomorrow. I’m commenting on those odds.

    I'd rather take Zakarin at 125/1 if you're working on that logic.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,440
    Dutch fans have the best songs. I'm sing the "we beat Nibali" one to myself.
  • Bo Duke
    Bo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Come on Tom !!

    Nibbles is the worry for me, he can producer a blinder when he needs to.

    Need have a small G&T to calm my nerves, a mere 6 hours before kick off...
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    If Quintana ends up without even a podium position the Giro / Tour double is going to look unwise. He must have known that with all these TT kms it wasn't the right Giro for him.
    http://cyclinganddesign.blogspot.fr/
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    I expect the TT to be pretty close.

    Final day TT is an odd thing, especially after this last week.
    _
  • Bo Duke
    Bo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    I expect the TT to be pretty close.
    .
    I expect it to be VERY close, I think big Tom's on his knees.... the question is whether he can throw off the fatigue of the last 3 stages and pull out a stunning TT.... big ask.
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    If someone were to tell me that Quintana will not be on the podium by the end of today I wouldn't be that surprised.
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    Start times of the top 10 (local time)

    153 Davide Formolo (Ita) Cannondale-Drapac 16:29:00
    154 Bob Jungels (Lux) Quick-Step Floors 16:32:00
    155 Adam Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 16:35:00
    156 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Trek-Segafredo 16:38:00
    157 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) AG2R 16:41:00
    158 Ilnur Zakarin (Rus) Katusha-Alpecin 16:44:00
    159 Tom Dumoulin (Ned) Team Sunweb 16:47:00
    160 Thibaut Pinot (Fra) FDJ 16:50:00
    161 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Bahrain-Merida 16:53:00
    162 Nairo Quintana (Col) Movistar Team 16:56:00

Categories