Poo tin... Put@in...

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  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,246

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.


    A literal example of "Choose your battles wisely".
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.

    I think the UF is also realistic about their limitations - their supply lines are also not very elastic and they don't have the resources for a material offensive.

    Presumably the tactic is to defend-in-depth and play for strategic time to build up resources to be able to launch full scale offensives themselves?
    I do not share your optimism, I think they are being ground down and I see nothing to stop it
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.

    I think the UF is also realistic about their limitations - their supply lines are also not very elastic and they don't have the resources for a material offensive.

    Presumably the tactic is to defend-in-depth and play for strategic time to build up resources to be able to launch full scale offensives themselves?
    I do not share your optimism, I think they are being ground down and I see nothing to stop it
    Here’s an excellent animated map of Russia grinding down Ukraine.



  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    They’ve seemingly now called up 70 year old artillery tractors armed with just a light machine gun for their ‘next offensive’.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,246
    Just thought I'd take a quick look... doesn't exactly seem like an army about to make substantial gains...

  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    Meanwhile I’ve been watching USAF Special Ops HC-130s over my house on daily missions to the Highlands that my geek mates, who are local to Mildenhall, claim to be loading up with ‘UF dressed people’.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    Something is definitely on the cards.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644

    Meanwhile I’ve been watching USAF Special Ops HC-130s over my house on daily missions to the Highlands that my geek mates, who are local to Mildenhall, claim to be loading up with ‘UF dressed people’.

    theres a load of them bring trained across the UK at the mo'.

    its open knowledge.

    its all part of a long term phase 1 training plan for there bods who havd never done anything green.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    Yeah saw that. And according to their trainers they’re machines for the learning.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    edited July 2022
    You don’t get put in the back of an HC-130 unless your ‘special’ though. The HC is a serious bit of kit
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    UF doing HALO? That’s special.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,290

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.

    I think the UF is also realistic about their limitations - their supply lines are also not very elastic and they don't have the resources for a material offensive.

    Presumably the tactic is to defend-in-depth and play for strategic time to build up resources to be able to launch full scale offensives themselves?
    I do not share your optimism, I think they are being ground down and I see nothing to stop it
    Here’s an excellent animated map of Russia grinding down Ukraine.



    Grindingly slow isn't it. Let's hope they keep sending enough of the ****ers back in body bags until the Russians realise they're not going to win.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    parity or near as dammit on IDF assets according to reports today
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,478
    Stevo_666 said:

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.

    I think the UF is also realistic about their limitations - their supply lines are also not very elastic and they don't have the resources for a material offensive.

    Presumably the tactic is to defend-in-depth and play for strategic time to build up resources to be able to launch full scale offensives themselves?
    I do not share your optimism, I think they are being ground down and I see nothing to stop it
    Here’s an excellent animated map of Russia grinding down Ukraine.



    Grindingly slow isn't it. Let's hope they keep sending enough of the ****ers back in body bags until the Russians realise they're not going to win.
    Seeing as it is mostly not ethnic Russians but soldiers from the various central Asian regions that are getting slaughtered I doubt Putin or the average Muscovite GAF.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,290
    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.

    I think the UF is also realistic about their limitations - their supply lines are also not very elastic and they don't have the resources for a material offensive.

    Presumably the tactic is to defend-in-depth and play for strategic time to build up resources to be able to launch full scale offensives themselves?
    I do not share your optimism, I think they are being ground down and I see nothing to stop it
    Here’s an excellent animated map of Russia grinding down Ukraine.



    Grindingly slow isn't it. Let's hope they keep sending enough of the ****ers back in body bags until the Russians realise they're not going to win.
    Seeing as it is mostly not ethnic Russians but soldiers from the various central Asian regions that are getting slaughtered I doubt Putin or the average Muscovite GAF.
    And the longer it drags on with no appreciable progress, the more military resources it uses, the higher the cost, the harder it becomes to keep justifying it. Etc.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    And that’s the Ukrainian Government asking citizens of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to evacuate if they can. The big southern UF push is about to begin.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    The UK is a nuclear power. That is a projection of power.
    As a member of the G7, that is a projection of power.

    Even the BBC World Service is a projection of power.

    I think you're confusing 'projection' with 'influence'. Either that, or I missed the bit where BBC World Service employees got into a firefight with the Taliban in Helmand....

    The UK is a nuclear power. That is a projection of power.
    As a member of the G7, that is a projection of power.

    Even the BBC World Service is a projection of power.

    I think you're confusing 'projection' with 'influence'. Either that, or I missed the bit where BBC World Service employees got into a firefight with the Taliban in Helmand....
    I imagine the BBC could deploy more people to Helmand than the british army
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.

    I think the UF is also realistic about their limitations - their supply lines are also not very elastic and they don't have the resources for a material offensive.

    Presumably the tactic is to defend-in-depth and play for strategic time to build up resources to be able to launch full scale offensives themselves?
    I do not share your optimism, I think they are being ground down and I see nothing to stop it
    Here’s an excellent animated map of Russia grinding down Ukraine.



    Grindingly slow isn't it. Let's hope they keep sending enough of the ****ers back in body bags until the Russians realise they're not going to win.
    Seeing as it is mostly not ethnic Russians but soldiers from the various central Asian regions that are getting slaughtered I doubt Putin or the average Muscovite GAF.
    And the longer it drags on with no appreciable progress, the more military resources it uses, the higher the cost, the harder it becomes to keep justifying it. Etc.
    Depends if the Yanks see $4bn a month as a cheap way of draining Russian resources.

    If Trump starts driving around in a red bus promising to stop funding foreign wars and spend $2bn a week on blue collar workers then Zelensky could be in trouble
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,088
    edited July 2022
    Can Putin live beyond the next US presidential election ?
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,269

    Can Putin live longer beyond the next US presidential election ?

    Yes.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,088
    Let's hope he doesn't and whoever takes over has a different view of this war.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,290

    The UK is a nuclear power. That is a projection of power.
    As a member of the G7, that is a projection of power.

    Even the BBC World Service is a projection of power.

    I think you're confusing 'projection' with 'influence'. Either that, or I missed the bit where BBC World Service employees got into a firefight with the Taliban in Helmand....

    The UK is a nuclear power. That is a projection of power.
    As a member of the G7, that is a projection of power.

    Even the BBC World Service is a projection of power.

    I think you're confusing 'projection' with 'influence'. Either that, or I missed the bit where BBC World Service employees got into a firefight with the Taliban in Helmand....
    I imagine the BBC could deploy more people to Helmand than the british army
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The UF are also very successfully pummelling the Russian rear supply lines and depots (no doubt located thanks to intel from locals) using the MLRS systems and very long range artillery. At some point Ivan's elastic will snap again - as it did in the North. They might have lots of dumb artillery shells, but they have a lot less manpower to hold any ground taken. They definitely don't have enough if/when the UF try and retake Kherson.

    I think the UF is also realistic about their limitations - their supply lines are also not very elastic and they don't have the resources for a material offensive.

    Presumably the tactic is to defend-in-depth and play for strategic time to build up resources to be able to launch full scale offensives themselves?
    I do not share your optimism, I think they are being ground down and I see nothing to stop it
    Here’s an excellent animated map of Russia grinding down Ukraine.



    Grindingly slow isn't it. Let's hope they keep sending enough of the ****ers back in body bags until the Russians realise they're not going to win.
    Seeing as it is mostly not ethnic Russians but soldiers from the various central Asian regions that are getting slaughtered I doubt Putin or the average Muscovite GAF.
    And the longer it drags on with no appreciable progress, the more military resources it uses, the higher the cost, the harder it becomes to keep justifying it. Etc.
    Depends if the Yanks see $4bn a month as a cheap way of draining Russian resources.

    If Trump starts driving around in a red bus promising to stop funding foreign wars and spend $2bn a week on blue collar workers then Zelensky could be in trouble
    Cheap? Unlikely.
    Worth it? Possibly. Otherwise they wouldn't be doing it.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    More aggressive sanctions after Georgia and Crimea would have been cheaper than the war but here we are
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,325
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62218696

    highlights the long-term idiocy of the usa's policy on iran (meekly and foolishly followed by usa allies), which, let's face it, came down to having a hissy fit over it's humiliation when the locals overthrew the usa-backed loathsome dictator and took out their grievances on the embassy

    since then, all that iran sanctions have achieved is to drive iran into an ever more extreme position, benefiting no one

    the iranian people were always among the most liberal in the middle east, but they've had to endure the replacement loathsome regime (which is really appalling now), because of decades of refusal to compromise and encourage/reward better behaviour
    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    sungod said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62218696

    highlights the long-term idiocy of the usa's policy on iran (meekly and foolishly followed by usa allies), which, let's face it, came down to having a hissy fit over it's humiliation when the locals overthrew the usa-backed loathsome dictator and took out their grievances on the embassy

    since then, all that iran sanctions have achieved is to drive iran into an ever more extreme position, benefiting no one

    the iranian people were always among the most liberal in the middle east, but they've had to endure the replacement loathsome regime (which is really appalling now), because of decades of refusal to compromise and encourage/reward better behaviour

    so its safe to say you're not a fan?
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    It’s good evidence that sanctions on their own do not cause regime change
  • Munsford0
    Munsford0 Posts: 678

    More aggressive sanctions after Georgia and Crimea would have been cheaper than the war but here we are

    You think aggressive sanctions would have stopped Putin's madness? I'm thinking it might have prompted him to go in sooner.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    edited July 2022
    .
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Munsford0 said:

    More aggressive sanctions after Georgia and Crimea would have been cheaper than the war but here we are

    You think aggressive sanctions would have stopped Putin's madness? I'm thinking it might have prompted him to go in sooner.
    Yeah.