Marmotte 2017

ai_1

narbs wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

narbs wrote:

What time is the cut off? The first time I did the Marmotte it took me almost 12 hours in total and I got to the foot of AdH at just before 6. I then took another two hours to climb the mountain......

I think it's fair to say I underestimated how hard it would be

The cut off is at 18:15 so you made it with just 15mins to spare by the sound of it. I'm estimating 12:30 to finish.

See, plenty of time

It might all go differently on the day, but I think I have a choice of two strategies to aim for.

1. Don't plan for Alpe D'Huez. Just plan to get to the bottom by the cut-off. That would probably involve pacing myself for a 10hr ride to that point which I expect would mean expending almost everything to get to the top of Galibier ASAP. I'd absolutely minimise any time stopped to grab water or food and just keep moving as fast as I can sustain to that point. The question if I did this, is whether it would just be a day of misery and stress, and whether I could then get up Alpe D'Huez or would I get there in time and then end up lying on the side of the road half way up.... This strategy could end up being 10hrs+3hrs or something similar. So an official time but not a good one, and a miserable finish.

2. Pace for the overall distance and accept that if I miss the cut-off I'll just carry on anyway. I could be 30mins slower to the cut-off point, or more if I take a few minutes at stops, or to enjoy the view. Of course the stops may have started packing up by the time I arrive! If I went with this option, I'd expect to be more likely to finish but unlikely to get an official time. Time might end up being 10.5hrs+2hrs or maybe 10.5hrs+2.5hrs.

davidof

Ai_1 wrote:

narbs wrote:

It might all go differently on the day, but I think I have a choice of two strategies to aim for.

Maybe you are overthinking this?

As you seem to have a PM just ride to your all day power to the top of the Galibier and make sure you are in groups for the valleys (Maurienne/Romanche). As the above poster said, don't waste too much time at feeds.

ai_1

davidof wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

narbs wrote:

It might all go differently on the day, but I think I have a choice of two strategies to aim for.

Maybe you are overthinking this?

As you seem to have a PM just ride to your all day power to the top of the Galibier and make sure you are in groups for the valleys (Maurienne/Romanche). As the above poster said, don't waste too much time at feeds.

I actually don't have a PM. I use virtual power on the turbo via Zwift and a Kurt Kinetic Road Machine. And I've used BestBikeSplit.com to get an idea of my real world performance averages. I've been surprised how accurate and repeatable the data from BBS has been, but obviously it's a big compromise compared to actually having a PM data. I seem to be able to pace myself pretty well on heart rate and perceived effort and I know fairly well what an all day pace feels like.

narbs

davidof wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

narbs wrote:

It might all go differently on the day, but I think I have a choice of two strategies to aim for.

Maybe you are overthinking this?

As you seem to have a PM just ride to your all day power to the top of the Galibier and make sure you are in groups for the valleys (Maurienne/Romanche). As the above poster said, don't waste too much time at feeds.

Yep, I've done it with 15 minutes down time and 5 of that was at the chaotic water stop in St-Michel-de-Maurienne.

davidof

Ai_1 wrote:

I seem to be able to pace myself pretty well on heart rate and perceived effort and I know fairly well what an all day pace feels like.

You've done the maths, it seems like you were a bit slow on your last sportif but don't neglect the advantage of riding in groups, it's worth around 30% of your effort, even on the climbs it can be good to be paced. I would certainly keep an eye on the HRM though as you do not to overcook it. Find a climbing group you are comfortable with and the fastest group you can hold on the flats.

ai_1

davidof wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

I seem to be able to pace myself pretty well on heart rate and perceived effort and I know fairly well what an all day pace feels like.

You've done the maths, it seems like you were a bit slow on your last sportif but don't neglect the advantage of riding in groups, it's worth around 30% of your effort, even on the climbs it can be good to be paced. I would certainly keep an eye on the HRM though as you do not to overcook it. Find a climbing group you are comfortable with and the fastest group you can hold on the flats.

Yeah, that will be the plan.
As you say, I was a little slow on the sportive a few days ago. I paced it well but it was a windy day plus I spent no more than a handful of kilometers drafting. My predictions for Marmotte assume I'll be riding solo as well, so if I can find suitably paced groups, especially going up the valley, I should gain some time. I'll keep an eye on my HR and so long as it's not extremely hot I'll know how to interpret that. If it is really hot, it may be more difficult, I know that can effect HR.

DeVlaeminck

Find a group and worry if it's suitably paced when you blow up. Seriously you may have to dig a bit deeper if you want to achieve your target, if you want to enjoy the view then buy a post card, there are 364 other days of the year to do that!

ai_1

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Find a group and worry if it's suitably paced when you blow up. Seriously you may have to dig a bit deeper if you want to achieve your target, if you want to enjoy the view then buy a post card, there are 364 other days of the year to do that!

That's just silly.
You're suggesting I should start off over zealously in an event like the Marmotte and worry about blowing up after it happens? Seriously, I may have to dig a bit deeper? Deeper than what?
You know the way Froome didn't make the podium in Dauphine the other day? Do you reckon it was because no-one told him to dig a bit deeper?
I could say I'm going to finish in 7hrs. I could will it with every fibre of my being. That wouldn't make it happen. Mindset and a good plan will get the best out of someone but there's a limit to what that best is. If you blow up mid event, you screwed up. I'm not going to screw up on purpose. Thanks.

"Go faster" is NOT a plan.

I know how to dig deep. I'll be doing it anyway just to finish that route, and if I'm in with a shot at making the cut-off I'll be digging as deep as I can. I haven't yet finished any event where I was taking my performance seriously, and had anything left in the tank. Historically I've blown up towards the end of a few events and paced others well to finish just as I was utterly spent. However, if, partway through the Marmotte, I already know I'm not going to make the cut-off, I may back off a bit and try to enjoy it, or I may still give it everything and just see what I can do. I do this for enjoyment, satisfaction and fitness. I'll do whatever I feel will maximise those. So yes, if I'm way off the pace anyway, I'll look around and enjoy the view. I won't be in the french alpes 364 other days this year.

I'm not going to try and hang with a group that's going too fast for me in the sure knowledge I'm sabotaging myself. It looks like the portion that will benefit most from drafting will be after descending from Glandon at around 55km until starting up Telegraphie around 80km. On the climbs, it can help psychologically to have someone to pace off but unless there's a strong headwind, drafting isn't of any real benefit. I'd imagine anyone I'm sharing the road with by 55km will likely be of somewhat similar ability to myself since I'm starting in the last wave - or they may be slower and have started ahead of me. No point speculating, I'll join an appropriate group if I can.

rpherts

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Find a group and worry if it's suitably paced when you blow up. Seriously you may have to dig a bit deeper if you want to achieve your target, if you want to enjoy the view then buy a post card, there are 364 other days of the year to do that!

Bit of a problem if you've blown up in Valloire though.

gavinbay

Guys you can't really make a plan until you know what the weather will be like, and even then that is a lottery.

I'm out here (16km below Lautaret) most of the summer, been out since second week of May.

Few weeks back the road up to Alpe D'Huez was evacuated on the big Dutch week day (Thursday) due to sudden drop in temps and hail / heavy rain and people suffering from hypothermia.

Few days later I did 140km 3,600m in mid 20's from Briancon, Lautaret, ADH, Col de Sarenne and back sans problem, last weekend I went back over the Sarenne to watch Porte / Froome in temps low to mid 30's and had major problems getting back over the Lautaret, I also came across a Brit cyclist in a very bad way and had to call emergency services.

Some people don't have a problem with the heat, others like me just fold. And then there's always the chance of cold weather which can be just as bad.

So worth working out how and what to pack should weather look cold (jacket / arm-warmers etc).

Today did Boucle Izoard on closed roads on the Izoard and temps were a very pleasant mid 20's on the mountain.

https://youtu.be/sEy3YS7nGuE

DeVlaeminck

Ai_1 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Find a group and worry if it's suitably paced when you blow up. Seriously you may have to dig a bit deeper if you want to achieve your target, if you want to enjoy the view then buy a post card, there are 364 other days of the year to do that!

That's just silly.
You're suggesting I should start off over zealously in an event like the Marmotte and worry about blowing up after it happens? Seriously, I may have to dig a bit deeper? Deeper than what?
.

You should start off at a pace that feels slightly uncomfortable and keep it going, blowing in Valloire would be unfortunate but blowing a few k from the top of the Galibier wouldn't be a disaster so long as you can suffer to the top as it's mostly downhill to the Alpe from there. Worry about that last climb when you get there. You just give me the impression you aren't really used to digging deep on the bike.

ai_1

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Find a group and worry if it's suitably paced when you blow up. Seriously you may have to dig a bit deeper if you want to achieve your target, if you want to enjoy the view then buy a post card, there are 364 other days of the year to do that!

That's just silly.
You're suggesting I should start off over zealously in an event like the Marmotte and worry about blowing up after it happens? Seriously, I may have to dig a bit deeper? Deeper than what?
.

You should start off at a pace that feels slightly uncomfortable and keep it going, blowing in Valloire would be unfortunate but blowing a few k from the top of the Galibier wouldn't be a disaster so long as you can suffer to the top as it's mostly downhill to the Alpe from there. Worry about that last climb when you get there. You just give me the impression you aren't really used to digging deep on the bike.

Don't know where you got that from. I certainly never said it. If I say I may not be capable of getting to the cut-off in time, how do you interpret that as "I don't fancy putting in the effort"?
Do you think a lot of people who don't like to dig deep on the bike sign up for the Marmotte?

narbs

Ai_1 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Find a group and worry if it's suitably paced when you blow up. Seriously you may have to dig a bit deeper if you want to achieve your target, if you want to enjoy the view then buy a post card, there are 364 other days of the year to do that!

That's just silly.
You're suggesting I should start off over zealously in an event like the Marmotte and worry about blowing up after it happens? Seriously, I may have to dig a bit deeper? Deeper than what?
.

You should start off at a pace that feels slightly uncomfortable and keep it going, blowing in Valloire would be unfortunate but blowing a few k from the top of the Galibier wouldn't be a disaster so long as you can suffer to the top as it's mostly downhill to the Alpe from there. Worry about that last climb when you get there. You just give me the impression you aren't really used to digging deep on the bike.

Don't know where you got that from. I certainly never said it. If I say I may not be capable of getting to the cut-off in time, how do you interpret that as "I don't fancy putting in the effort"?
Do you think a lot of people who don't like to dig deep on the bike sign up for the Marmotte?

I'd ignore if I were you. It's not advice you'll see repeated anywhere else.

You'll gain more time riding relatively conservatively until AdH and then hammering it up the last climb.

markwb79

I have my start number, but would love to be further forward (As would most!). I have plenty of history riding l'etape at a high level and Elite road racing.

Has anyone had any positive experiences of getting their numbers changed/ungraded?

DeVlaeminck

narbs wrote:

I'd ignore if I were you. It's not advice you'll see repeated anywhere else.

You'll gain more time riding relatively conservatively until AdH and then hammering it up the last climb.

He really wont, and if he misses the cut off it's immaterial anyway. I've mates who adopt the "it's a long way better start conservatively" approach and they always underperform in these kind of events. I'm not saying go off like it's a 1 hour crit but you should be feeling that the pace is slightly higher than you think you can maintain for the distance.

Anyway it is the OPs choice and we'll see how he gets on, I wish him good luck.

DeVlaeminck

Markwb79 wrote:

I have my start number, but would love to be further forward (As would most!). I have plenty of history riding l'etape at a high level and Elite road racing.

Has anyone had any positive experiences of getting their numbers changed/ungraded?

I seem to remember a mate got an early start on his first try by providing them with a photo of his 1st cat licence but that was some years ago. Unless you are really quick though - maybe sub 6.30 - you should find plenty of decent riders at the front of the last (main) start. My tip would be wait on the road leading up to the start and join the front of the bunch as they roll up (I'm assuming they still run it like they did last time I rode - gather elsewhere and ride to the start behind motorcycles).

rc856

Interesting reading

I'm feeling pretty underprepared and have started to worry about making it.
A combination of work/injury/childcare means I've yet to even do a century ride in my training.
I'm definitely in the camp of being happy if I make the cut off by 1min bad then worry about the Alpe.

I'm going with Sport Tours and still no hint of what our numbers are!

I'm hoping we won't be in the last pen.
Is it advisable to be early enough to get near the front of your respective pen?

If my working out is correct, I thought worse case scenario was leaving by 8am at the latest?

10.5 hrs to make a 6.30pm cut off (read that from a previous edition), an hour for stops, 9.5hrs to
do circa 100 miles to the Alpe....10.5mph ave.

Being a pasty Scot, the heat is my biggest fear. I'll have my factor 50 with me but will be hoping there are plenty of water places so I know I'm safe to drink regularly enough.

If I remember, there are drinkable water fountains/taps on the mountains or in towns??
Do these appear on any route maps and if not, are you able to find out where they are?

Cheers

craigus89

I think this is quite interesting about how to pace yourself. I would have thought you'd be better off not riding the Galibier full gas but if you feel you need to put the hammer down to make the time cut, to do that on the really long downhill to the bottom of the alpe.

I've not done an event like this before, but I know that on a long climb the difference for me between just riding tempo and really pushing it is at best say 3 km/h difference. If you're climbing for an hour anyway the advantage from doing that would be minimal in terms of making the time cut, whereas it is easier to sustain more of an effort on the flat, especially if it is slightly downhill and keeping that pace up, particularly in a group, would be easier and would surely go further in terms of making the time cut. Once you've done that just get up the alpe as best you can. Or is that me being too simplistic?

ai_1

Craigus89 wrote:

I think this is quite interesting about how to pace yourself. I would have thought you'd be better off not riding the Galibier full gas but if you feel you need to put the hammer down to make the time cut, to do that on the really long downhill to the bottom of the alpe.

I've not done an event like this before, but I know that on a long climb the difference for me between just riding tempo and really pushing it is at best say 3 km/h difference. If you're climbing for an hour anyway the advantage from doing that would be minimal in terms of making the time cut, whereas it is easier to sustain more of an effort on the flat, especially if it is slightly downhill and keeping that pace up, particularly in a group, would be easier and would surely go further in terms of making the time cut. Once you've done that just get up the alpe as best you can. Or is that me being too simplistic?

Generally speaking, the fastest way to complete any course is to push hardest when you're going slowest and recover when the going is easier. So you'd ride a bit harder on steep hills or into the wind. The reasons are pretty simple but the rationale doesn't seem to be intuitive for most people.

Reason 1: The slower you are going due to the prevailing conditions, the longer you'll have to endure them and the more time and energy they will cost you. This is most pertinent for a headwind. think of it this way; the longer you are sitting in a headwind the more wind passes you. So if you go slower you essentially have to go further (in terms of air resistance, i.e. speed*time).
If it helps to do an example:
Let's say you're doing a 1km climb and then coming back down again.
First steady effort: 12km/h up, 50km/h down = 5min up, 1.2min down = 6.2mins
Next hard up, easy down: 15km/h up, 40km/h down = 4min up, 1.5min down = 5.5mins
Now easy up, hard down: 10km/h up, 60km/h down = 6min up, 1min down = 7mins
Of course I'm just making up those speed figures, but put in whatever you think reasonable and I suspect you'll come up with the same result. Putting the effort in more effort on the uphill is the better strategy.
Of course the slower parts take longer and therefore you're not going way above whatever your steady power would have been, whereas the fast sections don't last as long so you can really hammer....but the payback isn't worth it.

Reason 2: Aerodynamic drag is proportional to the square of your airspeed and absorbs a much greater proportion of your power than rolling resistance when travelling quickly. Climbing at 13km/h versus 10km/h doesn't really change the amount of work you need to do, just the rate at which you are doing it. On the other hand, descending at 52km/h versus 40km/h will actually require a much greater total amount of work done as well as a substantially greater rate of work.

Another consideration on this route, I suspect, is that much of the decent has tight corners and switchbacks on it. That will mean fairly regular heavy braking. So, if you're trying to gain serious time on the descent you'll be accelerating hard out of corners and braking hard into them, do it if you' can and if you need to, and I enjoy doing it, BUT, I'd argue it's not the best use of limited energy.

ai_1

RC856 wrote:

....If my working out is correct, I thought worse case scenario was leaving by 8am at the latest?

10.5 hrs to make a 6.30pm cut off (read that from a previous edition), an hour for stops, 9.5hrs to
do circa 100 miles to the Alpe....10.5mph ave....

I haven't done it before but as I understand it from the event info, the last wave consists of people who haven't either done the event before or provided evidence of ability to do a good time. I've got my number and I'm, correctly, in that last wave. It heads out at 07:50. However there's over 3000 people in that wave so I expect it will take a while for everyone to get moving. So, I'm taking it as an 08:00 start for scheduling purposes. The race close in Bourg D'Oisins is given as 18:15. So it's 10.25hrs from the time I'm hoping to have left the start.

gavinbay

I would suggest saving yourself on the Galibier climb (again depends on how warm it is in the Mauienne valley) so if super warm take it easy anyway rather than overheat - easy to say though, after the Telegraph you have a small descent to Valloire and then the climb up to Plan Lachat is not too bad 1,960m, it then ramps up to the Col from there 2,642 though theoretically should be cooler than in the valley.

The Galibier descent is a wee bit technical in places but on the whole not too bad, from the Lautaret you can pretty well freewheel all the way past La Grave - I presume the tunnel will not be open (it will be open in July/Aug High Season and then close again) so you'll take the rescue road and that is undulating then once at the damn it's downhill to Le Freney with a short spike out of there and then down to the Oisans flat before the Alpe.

It's roughly 80 or so mins from the top of Galibier to the bottom of the Alpe.

DeVlaeminck

Craigus89 wrote:

I think this is quite interesting about how to pace yourself. I would have thought you'd be better off not riding the Galibier full gas but if you feel you need to put the hammer down to make the time cut, to do that on the really long downhill to the bottom of the alpe.
?

Just for clarity, I'm not recommending a tactic of emptying the tank by the top of the Galibier ! Just given the long descent it wouldn't be a complete disaster.

Ai - you wont need to accelerate hard out of corners to make time on the descents - most of the technical stuff is steep enough that the bike wont need much encouragement to go as fast as you can handle.

I still think you are ignoring the benefits of being in a group - it's worth going a bit harder to stick in a decent group on any of the valley roads and on the Lauteret. If you are solo and get a headwind down there it is hard work.

ai_1

I still don't know where you keep getting these massively incorrect ideas about my opinions or why you're misconstruing all my posts. What makes you think I underestimate the advantage if drafting?
What I've said is that it would be foolish to destroy myself early in the race in order to stay in a group that was too fast for me should that opportunity occur, which comment, incidentally, only came about because you'd questioned my saying I'd be aiming to join a suitable group....you thought suitability was irrelevant. Look, you're making inaccurate assumptions and then arguing with them. I assume you're trying to be helpful but really it's not helpful. I'm not a life long cyclist but I've been at it for about 6.5 years's now so I'm not a novice either. This is my first Marmotte and my first alpine sportive. However, its far from my first long ride, first long race, first long climb. I'm an engineer and an aerodynamicist by profession so I know the physics better than most. Will you please try and read my posts properly before responding.

itboffin

to the OP stopping worrying about all the advise and opinions on here, filter out what sounds reasonable to you, you know how you ride and what feels right to you, go with what you know.

but most of all its the Marmotte, its a big ride for 99% of us but its you're choice to do it so damn well enjoy it, stop worrying relish the challenge regardless of if you make it to the end or not. If you fail to finish it'll be a goal for next year or the year after.

There are few places and events like it - now get out there and ride.

ai_1

itboffin wrote:

to the OP stopping worrying about all the advise and opinions on here, filter out what sounds reasonable to you, you know how you ride and what feels right to you, go with what you know.

but most of all its the Marmotte, its a big ride for 99% of us but its you're choice to do it so damn well enjoy it, stop worrying relish the challenge regardless of if you make it to the end or not. If you fail to finish it'll be a goal for next year or the year after.

There are few places and events like it - now get out there and ride.

I've no problem with any of that advice
I'm not worried about the advice, but I do appreciate it. Some of the feedback is really helpful. I was at a loose end so let those with suspect advice know my thoughts, perhaps better to say nothing.
I'm sure the Marmotte will be an experience to remember whatever way it goes on the day and I'll be making the best of it!

DeVlaeminck

Ai_1 wrote:

I still don't know where you keep getting these massively incorrect ideas about my opinions or why you're misconstruing all my posts. What makes you think I underestimate the advantage if drafting?
What I've said is that it would be foolish to destroy myself early in the race in order to stay in a group that was too fast for me should that opportunity occur, which comment, incidentally, only came about because you'd questioned my saying I'd be aiming to join a suitable group....you thought suitability was irrelevant. Look, you're making inaccurate assumptions and then arguing with them. I assume you're trying to be helpful but really it's not helpful. I'm not a life long cyclist but I've been at it for about 6.5 years's now so I'm not a novice either. This is my first Marmotte and my first alpine sportive. However, its far from my first long ride, first long race, first long climb. I'm an engineer and an aerodynamicist by profession so I know the physics better than most. Will you please try and read my posts properly before responding.

I make those assumptions because you say you rode a recent sportive solo and talk at length above about the fastest way to complete a course but totally ignore the fact there will be other riders and staying in a group makes far more difference than the factors you mention. Physics doesn't tell you to make the front split of a group in the valley or how to avoid being dropped coming off the Galibier and riding the Lautaret into a headwind. Obviously you don't destroy yourself in the first 50k but with so much recovery, and the Glandon descent does not require the work you assume it does to go fast and neither does the Galibier descent, the best approach is not to measure out your effort over 12 hours. I'm just saying if you want to get round quickly it is more a case of go reasonably hard, recover, repeat.

As I say though I wish you good luck and enjoy the day.

ai_1

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

I still don't know where you keep getting these massively incorrect ideas about my opinions or why you're misconstruing all my posts. What makes you think I underestimate the advantage if drafting?
What I've said is that it would be foolish to destroy myself early in the race in order to stay in a group that was too fast for me should that opportunity occur, which comment, incidentally, only came about because you'd questioned my saying I'd be aiming to join a suitable group....you thought suitability was irrelevant. Look, you're making inaccurate assumptions and then arguing with them. I assume you're trying to be helpful but really it's not helpful. I'm not a life long cyclist but I've been at it for about 6.5 years's now so I'm not a novice either. This is my first Marmotte and my first alpine sportive. However, its far from my first long ride, first long race, first long climb. I'm an engineer and an aerodynamicist by profession so I know the physics better than most. Will you please try and read my posts properly before responding.

I make those assumptions because you say you rode a recent sportive solo and talk at length above about the fastest way to complete a course but totally ignore the fact there will be other riders and staying in a group makes far more difference than the factors you mention. Physics doesn't tell you to make the front split of a group in the valley or how to avoid being dropped coming off the Galibier and riding the Lautaret into a headwind. Obviously you don't destroy yourself in the first 50k but with so much recovery, and the Glandon descent does not require the work you assume it does to go fast and neither does the Galibier descent, the best approach is not to measure out your effort over 12 hours. I'm just saying if you want to get round quickly it is more a case of go reasonably hard, recover, repeat.

As I say though I wish you good luck and enjoy the day.

You're clearly not of a scientific persuasion if you thing any of those scenarios isn't entirely dependent on physics!

Again, putting words in my mouth on the other stuff and I couldn't be bothered continuing to corrct you at length. I never said constant pace was best, I never said descending fast required a lot of work, I said it wasn't worth working, presumed others would understand the implication that you'd be going fast on a descent anyway. I said I rode recent sportive solo because I did. That was intentional to mire accurately assess where I was on power and endurance plus I wanted to add a bit ti ehat would be my longest training ride.
....You're still making unwarranted assumptions

DeVlaeminck

Well you did say above that you need to accelerate hard out of the hairpins to make up time on the descents and that that would waste limited energy so I wasn't really putting words in your mouth.

Secondly if you think you have gained any kind of accurate assessment of where you are on power from doing a long ride without a power meter with 45 minutes for lunch in the middle then I'm not sure you are of much more of a scientific persuasion than me.

Thirdly if I can refer you to Davidof's advice over the page - hang in a climbing group you can manage and the fastest group on the flat you can stay with (I'd add the final descent to that) - then you'll see it's not really much different to what I'm telling you.

itboffin

Is this BR or road.cc ?

Will everyone just take a MASSHOOF chill pill

ai_1

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Well you did say above that you need to accelerate hard out of the hairpins to make up time on the descents and that that would waste limited energy so I wasn't really putting words in your mouth.

Secondly if you think you have gained any kind of accurate assessment of where you are on power from doing a long ride without a power meter with 45 minutes for lunch in the middle then I'm not sure you are of much more of a scientific persuasion than me.

Thirdly if I can refer you to Davidof's advice over the page - hang in a climbing group you can manage and the fastest group on the flat you can stay with (I'd add the final descent to that) - then you'll see it's not really much different to what I'm telling you.

Firstly: Yes and no, again you're misinterpreting my point. I was replying to another poster who reckoned he'd be better served putting his effort into the descent than the climb. What do you mean by "make up time"? I'll descend considerably faster than my average speed so in that sense I'm "making up time" but that is the case whether I work hard on the descent or not. I'm saying there's no point saving energy for the downhill and then hammering because you'll be going fast anyway and there isn't as much scope to make up time. The places you could inject additional effort like accelerating hard out of corners aren't worth it. So on the contrary, I didn't say you need to accelerate hard out of corners to make up time, I said it was where you COULD work harder but the payback wasn't worth it. You're not disagreeing with this, are you? You're saying something else and attributing it to me. Perhaps you could use quotes instead of telling me what I said? It might help.

Secondly: Go back and have a look at what I said about how I was assessing/predicting my performances. I did explain that I'm using simulation software to estimate power requirements for a given course based on time, effort distribution, weather and bike and rider parameters. This has proved rather accurate so far having used analysis of previous rides to determine how to predict future ones. The 200km ride last week served both as training and to verify this method - thus my preference for solo riding since drafting cannot be modelled. I'm not doing anything revolutionary here, BBS is heavily used and has generally been found to provide accurate modelling. Most use it with a PM which is the ideal way to do it, but it is still useful without one. So, no, I'm not fooling myself in thinking I've learnt something. I have, but I also understand the limitations of the method I'm using.

Thirdly: You suggested going as hard as it takes to stay in a group and ridiculed my comment that I'd aim to ride with a "suitable" group. You said, essentially, that I should ride with whatever group came along and if this results in blowing up I could worry about it then. Stupid advice which no-one else has endorsed. What am I missing? If you didn't really mean that then the problem here is your ability to say what you mean and read what others say.

Now, this whole conversation has quite frankly become embarrassing. Time to drop it I think?