2016 (flat) Classics thread

124

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  • jimmythecuckoo
    jimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,719
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    jimmythecuckoo wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    So, anyone want to stick their neck out and say who they think will have the best (flat) classics season?
    Edward Theuns for Roubaix.

    Vanmarcke the Ronde.


    :wink:

    Remember where you read it first.

    Aren't you forgetting a rather big part of the Theuns calculation?
    Dylan?
    http://fendrieneu.home.blog
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    Beers of Belgium Cycling Club UK
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    It's his leader's last Roubaix. There's no way he gets any leeway.

    I went on a charidee ride with him and Benoot in November. They were a sight to behold on the cobbles
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    jimmythecuckoo wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    So, anyone want to stick their neck out and say who they think will have the best (flat) classics season?
    Edward Theuns for Roubaix.

    Vanmarcke the Ronde.


    :wink:

    Remember where you read it first.

    Aren't you forgetting a rather big part of the Theuns calculation?

    And the big part of the Vanmarcke calculation too...he ain't gonna win anything.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    Ill put it out there right now... Sep will win a Roubaix.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Ill put it out there right now... Sep will win a Roubaix.

    That's the most likely one, but I would still be absolutely astounded if that happened. He would have to get away on his own 5 kms or more and stay out. Highly unlikely as he doesn't appear to be able to ITT particularly well.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,719
    eh??

    He did a superb ITT in every classic last year. His trouble is that it's always 1 min behind the front group because he punctured or crashed or a cloud passed too close or something...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    ddraver wrote:
    eh??

    He did a superb ITT in every classic last year. His trouble is that it's always 1 min behind the front group because he punctured or crashed or a cloud passed too close or something...

    I'd love to see him win something but he has no sprint and I don't think he has the TT ability to do a Fabu/Thomas/Sagan and stay out.

    If it does happen I'll be the first to eat a slice of humble pie.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    Joelsim wrote:
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Ill put it out there right now... Sep will win a Roubaix.

    That's the most likely one, but I would still be absolutely astounded if that happened. He would have to get away on his own 5 kms or more and stay out. Highly unlikely as he doesn't appear to be able to ITT particularly well.

    He finished 2nd in a sprint to a top form Cancellara aged 23. He's got it.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Ill put it out there right now... Sep will win a Roubaix.

    That's the most likely one, but I would still be absolutely astounded if that happened. He would have to get away on his own 5 kms or more and stay out. Highly unlikely as he doesn't appear to be able to ITT particularly well.

    He finished 2nd in a sprint to a top form Cancellara aged 23. He's got it.

    He did. 2nd out of 2 riders.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    At the end of Paris Roubaix? You're being a little disingenuous there
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    All I'm saying is that if there are 2,3,4 riders left at the end of a race then he is highly unlikely to win a sprint. He's not Valverde or Canc or Boonen.

    Furthermore if he manages to get away in the last few kms, which is difficult enough in itself, then he has to TT his way to a win. And he's never performed any better than ok in an ITT.

    I have no doubt his palmares will include loads of top 5s at the end of his career, but IMO he is unlikely to win a top level race.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    Joelsim wrote:
    All I'm saying is that if there are 2,3,4 riders left at the end of a race then he is highly unlikely to win a sprint. He's not Valverde or Canc or Boonen.

    Furthermore if he manages to get away in the last few kms, which is difficult enough in itself, then he has to TT his way to a win. And he's never performed any better than ok in an ITT.

    I have no doubt his palmares will include loads of top 5s at the end of his career, but IMO he is unlikely to win a top level race.

    Time trials aren't normally staged after 250km.

    Look at his ride in Flanders last year. Who else is riding back on on his own after a puncture over the hotondberg? I'm not a big fan, but he's a hell of a talent and has only one team mate worth a damn in a race like that
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    All I'm saying is that if there are 2,3,4 riders left at the end of a race then he is highly unlikely to win a sprint. He's not Valverde or Canc or Boonen.

    Furthermore if he manages to get away in the last few kms, which is difficult enough in itself, then he has to TT his way to a win. And he's never performed any better than ok in an ITT.

    I have no doubt his palmares will include loads of top 5s at the end of his career, but IMO he is unlikely to win a top level race.

    Time trials aren't normally staged after 250km.

    Look at his ride in Flanders last year. Who else is riding back on on his own after a puncture over the hotondberg? I'm not a big fan, but he's a hell of a talent and has only one team mate worth a damn in a race like that

    I agree. As I've said before he's as strong as an ox, I also really like him, but to win a big race you need finishing speed or a lot of luck.
  • yorkshireraw
    yorkshireraw Posts: 1,632
    with Geraint T saying he'll only do Flanders, and the end of the Brad show, Stannard & Rowe is a powerful duo for Sky for Roubaix. If Stannard gets to the race in 1 piece he could do some damage.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    YorkshireRaw wrote:
    with Geraint T saying he'll only do Flanders, and the end of the Brad show, Stannard & Rowe is a powerful duo for Sky for Roubaix. If Stannard gets to the race in 1 piece he could do some damage.

    Looking forward to Luke Rowe this year.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • salsiccia1
    salsiccia1 Posts: 3,725
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    YorkshireRaw wrote:
    with Geraint T saying he'll only do Flanders, and the end of the Brad show, Stannard & Rowe is a powerful duo for Sky for Roubaix. If Stannard gets to the race in 1 piece he could do some damage.

    Looking forward to Luke Rowe this year.

    Yep. I think he's got a podium in him.
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,823
    Sep's outprinted Boonen to win Het Volk before, but I still think he's going to be the New Leif Hoste.

    NO doubting his talent, he just won't win big
  • Richmond Racer 2
    Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    TakeTheHighRoad wrote:
    Sep's outprinted Boonen to win Het Volk before, but I still think he's going to be the New Leif Hoste.

    NO doubting his talent, he just won't win big



    Let's hope not, in more ways than one
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Oi that's my line, this generation's Hoste.
    _
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,719
    Joelsim wrote:
    And he's never performed any better than ok in an ITT.

    Shades of the Clinic on Froome there - an ITT in a GT/WLSR is unlikely to tempt a Belgian Cobble specialist...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    Richmond Racer 2 wrote:
    TakeTheHighRoad wrote:
    Sep's outprinted Boonen to win Het Volk before, but I still think he's going to be the New Leif Hoste.

    NO doubting his talent, he just won't win big



    Let's hope not, in more ways than one

    I won't hear a word against Leif Hoste.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • Richmond Racer 2
    Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Richmond Racer 2 wrote:
    TakeTheHighRoad wrote:
    Sep's outprinted Boonen to win Het Volk before, but I still think he's going to be the New Leif Hoste.

    NO doubting his talent, he just won't win big



    Let's hope not, in more ways than one

    I won't hear a word against Leif Hoste.


    Why, are you wearing ear muffs?
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    It'll be one of those transition years without any one head and shoulders above.

    Bit like 2007: MSR: Freire, Flanders: Balan, PR: O'Grady

    Was thinking along those lines as well. The Boonen-Cancellara era is at an end (probably) and the likes of Vanmarcke, Sagan, Degenkolb, Kristoff are pretty evenly matched.

    Sep is easily good enough to win the big monuments (more likely Paris Roubaix). Better than Leif Hoste. Last year he definitely looked burnt out by the time he got to Flanders so the team need to focus his workload a bit more.

    I was really impressed with Luke Rowe in PR. Be interesting to see if he can make another step up this year.
  • professeur
    professeur Posts: 232
    Tour of Flanders wildcards for Bora-Argon 18, CCC, Southeast, Direct Energie, Roompot, Wanty-Gobert & Topsport Vlaanderen (via @inrng)
  • Macaloon
    Macaloon Posts: 5,545
    ddraver wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    And he's never performed any better than ok in an ITT.

    Shades of the Clinic on Froome there - an ITT in a GT/WLSR is unlikely to tempt a Belgian Cobble specialist...

    I won't hear a word against the Clinic.

    All he needs is some normal luck, and the sprinters to hesitate organising a chase. They won't catch him.
    ...a rare 100% loyal Pro Race poster. A poster boy for the community.
  • ShutupJens
    ShutupJens Posts: 1,373
    Yeah, you don't necessarily need to go from a long way out in Flanders or Roubaix.. Ask Terpstra. That win wasn't about his time trial ability, it was because the bunch wouldn't organise any sort of coherent chase
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    ShutupJens wrote:
    Yeah, you don't necessarily need to go from a long way out in Flanders or Roubaix.. Ask Terpstra. That win wasn't about his time trial ability, it was because the bunch wouldn't organise any sort of coherent chase

    Stijn Devolder will tell you a tale about that too
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • ozzzyosborn206
    ozzzyosborn206 Posts: 1,340
    Yeah if you get in the right group at the end and have good legs a well timed attack by someone unexpected could win it, can't see cancerllara or boonen chasing 100% if the other is there, would be lots of looking around which could be enough for sep or someone to take the win. Personally I'd just like to see a royal smashfest of the classic hitters, strongest man wins.

    There is a massive different between a top 10 and winning though, not sure Luke Rowe can win a race of that level seems like he will always be a plan B/strong domestique
  • deejay
    deejay Posts: 3,138
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    ShutupJens wrote:
    Yeah, you don't necessarily need to go from a long way out in Flanders or Roubaix.. Ask Terpstra. That win wasn't about his time trial ability, it was because the bunch wouldn't organise any sort of coherent chase
    Stijn Devolder will tell you a tale about that too
    Stijn got a contract in a team with a favourite and the lucky lad jumped away and nobody would chase him with the favourite on their wheels. (poor old Pozzi just lost it because you can't wheel suck the win)
    Bugger me, he did it again the next year and the lucky bugger can retire now as a monument Hero.
    Is that what you meant DG.
    Organiser, National Championship 50 mile Time Trial 1972
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Stijn has done it on a few other occasions too.

    Don't care how favourable the tactical play is, on his day he's an Ox on the bike.
    _

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