Donald Trump
Comments
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he's agent orange in human form, though more toxic
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
Interesting listening to the Rest is Politics podcast. Rory Stewart is going all out and says he is increasingly convinced that Harris going to win and will do so convincingly. I think the same and have done since Biden stepped down from the race. I am fully prepared to accept I may be wildly wrong on this. I guess we shall see next week.
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Let's hope so. There's a lot going on, including, I suspect, a lot of disinfo. The early voting patterns (higher female %, and much higher overall) suggest a rerun of the midterms that had them neck and neck, but in which democrats outperformed polls significantly, but ironically the (suspected) disinfo will help to keep those determined to thwart MAGA engaged. Part of the disinfo seems to come from the Polymarket betting, along with Musk's misuse of Twitter, in amplifying the Trumpian side.
And the closing MAGA message seems to be doubling down on appealing to the base, and alienating everyone else.
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This will be a turn out election. Will the Dems be so afraid they will turn out in higher proportions than the Magas?
Hopefully yes, on the basis that less educated people tend to be less likely to vote.
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This is Stewart's thesis (and my own). In the key states, young women are more likely to vote than young men and the Dems have a far better ground game to get people to the voting booths (volunteers literally collecting people and driving them to polling stations).
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The disinfo is part of Stewart's rationale, he also thinks that the polling methodology in most major polls is flawed and that pollsters are putting in huge margins of error to hedge their bets and not look stupid either way.
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The turnout for Harris's Ellipse rally (75k) does suggest her laugh hasn't put too many people off. And the significance of this being the same place where Trump sent people off to ransack the Capitol won't be lost on anyone.
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Trump got 5.4% of the vote in 2020 in DC, which was up on his showing in 2016.
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Washington DC, where they can vote in presidential elections, but have no Senate representative. US 'democracy' is so weird/broken.
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Can someone explain to me why anyone is voting for Trump? Genuinely baffled.
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Sexism, misogyny, racism, greed, Christian extremism, ignorance, stupidity.
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Same as those voting for Farage. Hollow promises to the dumb which will never be lived up to.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Is that the majority US opinion now though? I guess that's the bit that confuses me.
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I went through those one by one. Yes, they are highly prevalent.
Remember 51% of the vote is not the same as 51% of the population. He only needs enough.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Anyone who has one of these as their top priority:
a) they are rich and want a tax cut over everything else
b) think that immigrants are taking everything
c) think that Democrats are not pro Israel
d) want to ban abortion
Plus, if you are used to having the system tilted in your favour, any call for more fairness feels like an attack to be resisted.
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It is probably a veritable cornucopia of reasons.
There are those that will look at genuine policy reasons, mainly the economy and immigration and think that Trump best represents their interests i.e. closed borders, lower taxes, less govt regulation.
There is a huge swathe clearly vulnerable to disinformation who have fallen down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole and think Trump is the saviour come to rid Washington of a deep state conspiracy.
Some will be extreme right Christian Conservatives who want full abortion bans, no gay rights and lots of the other stuff promised under Project 2025 and think Trump is their righteous leader who will turn the US back towards 19th Century puritanism.
A lot of younger and middle aged guys identify with the autocratic outsider narrative. They think Trump is a winner who makes lots of money and doesn't take notice of any rules (think Musk and his love for Trump). There has always been this existential love of the outsider in American culture (think Cowboys/Noir Detectives). The kind of rugged masculine bloke who doesn't follow the norms. Lots of Americans identify with this.
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Also think about the MAGA voter saying that Trump is there to help the little guy fight the elite.
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
No, but the electoral college seems to have ensured that clever urban people (the majority) don't get to lord it over stupid & rich people for the presidential election, or in Congress, where a Californian has about a quarter of the representation of someone from Kentucky.
It's the same unholy alliance - the very rich and the ill-educated - that delivered Brexit: the very rich dream up simplistic scams that the ill-educated will believe.
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Probably the key reason is that he is more trusted on the economy than Harris by 52% to 44%
More people believe that Trump will leave them better off financially than Harris by 45% to 37%
I can only assume these beliefs must also include him not actually implementing his stated policies.
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'Whether the women like it or not I'm going to protect them' - Trump
FFS…. USA needs a reality check.
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Yes that is my gut feeling - and if I wanted to rationalise it it'd for similar reasons as RS - they'll get more of "their" vote out.
That said my gut feeling was Brexit would be defeated quite comfortably. Maybe gut feelings are always that the norm - or the status quo - will remain - and despite Trump being elected previously he's still not your usual politician.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
I think you are right that gut feelings are quite likely connected to the status quo and a feeling (or hope) that it will remain in place.
No doubt that Trump's appeal is in his being perceived as being outside of the establishment. Whether that gets him over the line again. I am not convinced it is enough this time out.
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Genuinely hard to comprehend that not that long ago Obama was ridiculed just for wearing a tan suit.
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Rather gives the impression that MAGA has abandoned any pretence of trying to persuade women to vote Republican. (The 19th Amendment precludes denying the vote to anyone because of their gender.) Kinda weird to alienate 50% of the population at an election.
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Also, I think Musk's flipping of Twitter to be a MAGA echo chamber might, just might, work in Democrats' favour this time, with Trumpists not realising quite how out-of-step they are with vast numbers of Americans. One way or another, it's not going to be long before we find out.
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Interesting article on the Beeb website about the 'swing states' that will likely decide the outcome:
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I think he has a, dare I say, fun aspect that is lacking in a lot of other authoritarian wannabes. I think if you're a white male, doing pretty well for yourself and utterly self centred, it's just a bit of a "joke".
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Yes he's entertaining.
I think some people just want to see the world burn.
As mentioned pro life is important to a reasonable minority.
There'll be lifelong Republicans who say well he did ok last time.
Immigration
If you are American would you not be happy for Ukraine to lose a bit more territory for an end to your taxes paying for their war ?
The woke agenda is less popular with the population than the political class.
Offering tax free loans to black males, letting black students into colleges with lower scores etc - if I'm a poor white you can bet I'm voting against that every day of the week.
People who will genuinely benefit from his economic policies.
People who think he's a stronger world statesman - maybe blame Biden for letting these conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine escalate
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]1 -
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Again, I feel like I know people that would make that exact joke or laugh at it.
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