Donald Trump
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It's not quite a done deal according to the betting markets. This is the implied probability of Biden winning.rick_chasey said:Polling numbers are collapsing for Trump.
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£44m out of £112m is on Biden.rick_chasey said:How deep is the market?
FWIW I don't find betting markets to be useful predictors of politics, but nonetheless it is interesting that a lot of people still think Trump has a chance.0 -
mmm I wouldn't put a lot of stock (pun not intended) in a market that thin.TheBigBean said:
£44m out of £112m is on Biden.rick_chasey said:How deep is the market?
FWIW I don't find betting markets to be useful predictors of politics, but nonetheless it is interesting that a lot of people still think Trump has a chance.
I usually refer to the fivethirtyeight model which aggregates polls in a relatively sophisticated way and spits out probabilities.0 -
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I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.0
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The markets got Brexit massively wrong.
I think there are way more shy Trump voters than the polls are showing although not enough for Biden to lose.0 -
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid0 -
Does VP count as 3rd in an each way bet?surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
just kidding. 😉The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Well he's not coughing, and he's not gasping for breath in this seemingly endless interview.
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At that market depth it's trivial money for people who don't give a sh!t either way if they make or lose.surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
Poll aggregators with sensible parameters make a lot more sense, especially if they're back-tested etc.0 -
People think Trump has a change because most polls put Hilary at around 3 in 4 to 4 in 5 chance of winning ( I think FiveThirtyEight had Trump down at 1/3 chance of winning), so they therefore don't want to be played out again like they were with Hilary.TheBigBean said:
£44m out of £112m is on Biden.rick_chasey said:How deep is the market?
FWIW I don't find betting markets to be useful predictors of politics, but nonetheless it is interesting that a lot of people still think Trump has a chance.
Polls are *way worse* for Trump this time around and heading in the wrong direction. I think if the election was held today there's something like a 90% chance Biden wins.0 -
Bear in mind that the polls were pretty good on the popular vote even last time. If he loses by 8 points+, the electoral college can't save him.0
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That's a deep betting market.rick_chasey said:
At that market depth it's trivial money for people who don't give a sh!t either way if they make or lose.surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
Poll aggregators with sensible parameters make a lot more sense, especially if they're back-tested etc.0 -
Eh? Come on. You see comparable volumes each Sunday just for the prem.TheBigBean said:
That's a deep betting market.rick_chasey said:
At that market depth it's trivial money for people who don't give a sh!t either way if they make or lose.surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
Poll aggregators with sensible parameters make a lot more sense, especially if they're back-tested etc.0 -
If you want a deeper market you'd look at the ETF F&O markets on the S&P and push out the duration (delta I think this is, but i'm at the limits here) to just after polls close and see what the positions look like there.TheBigBean said:
That's a deep betting market.rick_chasey said:
At that market depth it's trivial money for people who don't give a sh!t either way if they make or lose.surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
Poll aggregators with sensible parameters make a lot more sense, especially if they're back-tested etc.
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The biggest market ever on Betfair was the 2016 US election that matched £200m. This one has a way to run, but at £100m+ it is a big market.rick_chasey said:
Eh? Come on. You see comparable volumes each Sunday just for the prem.TheBigBean said:
That's a deep betting market.rick_chasey said:
At that market depth it's trivial money for people who don't give a sh!t either way if they make or lose.surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
Poll aggregators with sensible parameters make a lot more sense, especially if they're back-tested etc.
Of course, the financial markets are bigger, no one would claim otherwise,
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( I meant combined matches, but sure, take your point. It's just no-one's really sticking their neck on the line in a retail bet...)TheBigBean said:
The biggest market ever on Betfair was the 2016 US election that matched £200m. This one has a way to run, but at £100m+ it is a big market.rick_chasey said:
Eh? Come on. You see comparable volumes each Sunday just for the prem.TheBigBean said:
That's a deep betting market.rick_chasey said:
At that market depth it's trivial money for people who don't give a sh!t either way if they make or lose.surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
Poll aggregators with sensible parameters make a lot more sense, especially if they're back-tested etc.
Of course, the financial markets are bigger, no one would claim otherwise,0 -
They aren't usually with financial bets either. It's usually someone else's money they are playing with.rick_chasey said:
( I meant combined matches, but sure, take your point. It's just no-one's really sticking their neck on the line in a retail bet...)TheBigBean said:
The biggest market ever on Betfair was the 2016 US election that matched £200m. This one has a way to run, but at £100m+ it is a big market.rick_chasey said:
Eh? Come on. You see comparable volumes each Sunday just for the prem.TheBigBean said:
That's a deep betting market.rick_chasey said:
At that market depth it's trivial money for people who don't give a sh!t either way if they make or lose.surrey_commuter said:
many people think that the betting exchanges are better than opinion polls because you have to pay to have an opinion. The more money that is wagered the more likely it is to be correct.elbowloh said:I literally have no idea what you guys are talking about now.
trump is at 2/1 which is long odds in a two horse race but implies he still has a chance
interestingly pence is at 160/1 which would seem to be worth a couple of quid
Poll aggregators with sensible parameters make a lot more sense, especially if they're back-tested etc.
Of course, the financial markets are bigger, no one would claim otherwise,0 -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8819293/Trump-claims-cured-interview-COVID-hospital-treatment.html
It would appear he may not be POTUS for much longer whatever happens.0 -
Comical quote in that article (which feels like a bit of wishful thinking - they'd need Pence on board)brundonbianchi said:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8819293/Trump-claims-cured-interview-COVID-hospital-treatment.html
It would appear he may not be POTUS for much longer whatever happens.
'I'm a perfect physical specimen and I'm extremely young. And so I'm lucky that way,' said the president, who at 74 and overweight is in the high risk category for COVID.
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono1 -
That would be a bad move from the democrats.brundonbianchi said:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8819293/Trump-claims-cured-interview-COVID-hospital-treatment.html
It would appear he may not be POTUS for much longer whatever happens.0 -
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Well, I'm glad Trump's cleared that up.
https://mobile.twitter.com/therecount/status/13142560686634803230 -
He does love playing that imaginary accordion.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
rjsterry said:
He does love playing that imaginary accordion.
I can't bear to hear him talk normally, but stick an accordion in his hands, and it's fine...
https://youtu.be/WcILZsJ2SRc 0 -
Maybe it's a ploy to get him to stop the drugs so he can't be seen as incapacitated, and get him sent back to hospital.brundonbianchi said:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8819293/Trump-claims-cured-interview-COVID-hospital-treatment.html
It would appear he may not be POTUS for much longer whatever happens.0 -
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Doesn't action that looks to be trying to force him out play into his hands and his claims of conspiracy? It could backfire.0
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Can't be done without the agreement of the vice president, so as long as she makes that absolutely clear, it's just drawing more attention to his craziness. And on a practical level providing a way to actually remove him if his condition goes backwards again. He's not signing over control ever.Pross said:Doesn't action that looks to be trying to force him out play into his hands and his claims of conspiracy? It could backfire.
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