TdF 2015 - Stage 3 Anvers - Huy *SPOILERS*

imatfaal
imatfaal Posts: 2,716
edited July 2015 in Pro race
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Epic opening first two days. I have only recently taken to watching the Classics and have only seen one finish on the Mur de Huy so have a newbie question:

How much time can be gained/lost on this brutal last climb?

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Comments

  • JackPozzi
    JackPozzi Posts: 1,191
    Definitely a last 30km day tomorrow...
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641527#p19641527]JackPozzi[/url] wrote:
    Definitely a last 30km day tomorrow...


    Be fair, scenery should be nice.

    I was gonna take the train to Eupen and watch tomorrow. But one of my Japanese colleagues has flown in all the way from the Land of the Rising Sun especially to make me work late all week :cry:

    As to the OPs question, probably no more than 20s.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • Turfle
    Turfle Posts: 3,762
    Yeah I can't see the GC favourites being split by more than 10 or 15 seconds.

    I wonder if Movistar will let Valverde go for the win. That could stretch the group and cause splits more than if he rides for Quintana. Similarly with Sagan and Contador.
  • smithy21
    smithy21 Posts: 2,204
    I would be tempted to let Movistar do that if they like if I was another GC contender. If Valverde gets a bit more of a lead on Quintana he will shaft him for team leadership.
  • adr82
    adr82 Posts: 4,002
    Going to be a very nervy run-in you'd think, none of the GC contenders will want to risk getting stuck too far back and losing more time, and obviously there'll be a bunch of others going for the stage win wanting to be at/near the front too.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,731
    James Nesbitt ftw.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Beyond crashes, you could lose up half a minute, though you'd expect to lose a bit less.


    Will be time gaps though.
    _
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,264
    Crashes are a bigger threat to GC riders than the actual Mur. Froome and Contador can afford lose 15s on the final climb if it keeps them in decent shape for Tuesday. Not that I think they will - Contador should be the best of the 'big four' up there.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RideOnTime
    RideOnTime Posts: 4,712
    just watched hi-lights... this could be a great tour... splits already :shock: :shock:
  • smithy21
    smithy21 Posts: 2,204
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641740#p19641740]RideOnTime[/url] wrote:
    just watched hi-lights... this could be a great tour... splits already :shock: :shock:

    You watched the highlights of stage 3 already. Do you drive a delorean?
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,264
    Today's bet for me:

    Costa to beat Kelderman 11/10
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,464
    edited July 2015
    Is the no losing time in the last 2k(?) rule in effect for a stage like today?

    Found my own answer - it's 3k and no.

    • finish for the 1st stage, which is individual time trial; • finish for the 9th stage, which is a team time trial; • summit finishes of the 3rd; 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 17th, 19th and 20th.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,264
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641805#p19641805]TailWindHome[/url] wrote:
    Is the no losing time in the last 2k(?) rule in effect for a stage like today?
    No it isn't. It never is when the stage finishes on a categorised climb.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RideOnTime
    RideOnTime Posts: 4,712
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641750#p19641750]smithy21[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641740#p19641740]RideOnTime[/url] wrote:
    just watched hi-lights... this could be a great tour... splits already :shock: :shock:

    You watched the highlights of stage 3 already. Do you drive a delorean?

    clearly stage 2, I was trying to provide continuity
  • rozzer32
    rozzer32 Posts: 3,923
    Will be interesting today. I think Movistar are going to have to absolutely drill it in the final few kms. Try to set valverde up for the win and try and gain some time back for Quintana.
    ***** Pro Tour Pundit Champion 2020, 2018, 2017 & 2011 *****
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Cancellara's time in yellow may end after this stage.

    General Classification after Stage 2
    SUI 1 CANCELLARA, Fabian (TREK FACTORY RACING) 3:44:01
    GER 2 MARTIN, Tony (ETIXX - QUICK STEP) + 3
    NED 3 DUMOULIN, Tom (GIANT - ALPECIN) + 6
    SVK 4 SAGAN, Peter (TINKOFF - SAXO) + 33
    GBR 5 THOMAS, Geraint (SKY) + 35
    ITA 6 OSS, Daniel (BMC RACING) + 42
    COL 7 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (ETIXX - QUICK STEP)
    USA 8 VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING) + 44
    BEL 9 VAN AVERMAET, Greg (BMC RACING) + 48
    GBR 10 FROOME, Christopher (SKY)

    He could well lose a lot of time on the Muur and Dumoulin can climb. (if he took the yellow jersey it would be the first Ned rider in 26 years - shockingly poor result for a country with so many cyclists).
    Contador is the Greatest
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641560#p19641560]Turfle[/url] wrote:
    I wonder if Movistar will let Valverde go for the win. That could stretch the group and cause splits more than if he rides for Quintana. Similarly with Sagan and Contador.

    I'd be amazed if they didn't. Movistar will almost certainly be right on the front going into the Mur anyway because they cannot afford to lose any more time. After that there's very little help that can be given on a climb like the Mur. It's just you versus gravity.

    I think there'll probably be time gaps of 20-30 seconds. The main problem is the lack of space on the climb. Everyone wants to be in the top 30 and if you get stuck behind riders falling back then before you know it you're on the wrong side of split. Again.
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,823
    edited July 2015
    Lazy journalism means I cba finding the answer to this question.

    With the possibility of Dumoulin taking yellow today, then A.N.Other rider taking over again tomorrow (assuming Canc has a mare on the cobbles), has there ever been four different riders in yellow in four days before?
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,729
    If you re in The Netherlands at the moment TTHR, then the answer to the first is 100% and the second is 0%.

    In all seriousness, after the success of the Grand Depart it would be a great bit of icing on the cake if Tommy went into geel...I may have to have a mumble of the chant that was ringing round the course on sunday with his name set to "Baby give it up".
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641869#p19641869]TakeTheHighRoad[/url] wrote:
    Lazy journalism means I cba finding the answer to this question.

    With the possibility of Dumoulin taking yellow today, then A.N.Other rider taking over again tomorrow (assuming Canc has a mare on the cobbles), has there ever been four different riders in yellow in four days before?


    You are familiar with Mr Cancellara? Not a good assumption.

    How much time could Sagan put into Canc on the Muur?
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641977#p19641977]Timoid.[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641869#p19641869]TakeTheHighRoad[/url] wrote:
    Lazy journalism means I cba finding the answer to this question.

    With the possibility of Dumoulin taking yellow today, then A.N.Other rider taking over again tomorrow (assuming Canc has a mare on the cobbles), has there ever been four different riders in yellow in four days before?


    You are familiar with Mr Cancellara? Not a good assumption.

    How much time could Sagan put into Canc on the Muur?


    I see the two of them as quite similar in potential up that. They both thrive on the likes of Berendries and the Valkenberg in RVV so this shouldn't be too much different.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • jimmythecuckoo
    jimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,719
    Geraint Thomas for the win...
    http://fendrieneu.home.blog
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  • rozzer32
    rozzer32 Posts: 3,923
    Canc won't lose that much time up the muur. Wasn't it an opening stage a few years ago that finished like today's stage and he attacked to try and get yellow but was beaten by Gilbert. Canc will know he can hold on for a few days if he keeps it today. He will be sticking very close to sagans wheel.
    ***** Pro Tour Pundit Champion 2020, 2018, 2017 & 2011 *****
  • muttley_109
    muttley_109 Posts: 177
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641987#p19641987]jimmythecuckoo[/url] wrote:
    Geraint Thomas for the win...

    I have a few quid on G at 125/1 :mrgreen:
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  • Anonymous
    Anonymous Posts: 79,666
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641527#p19641527]JackPozzi[/url] wrote:
    Definitely a last 30km day tomorrow...

    Just like yesterday.
  • FocusZing
    FocusZing Posts: 4,373
    Sagans good on short Sharp climbs, hpoe Tinkoff let him have the chance.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,729
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19642075#p19642075]FocusZing[/url] wrote:
    Sagans good on short Sharp climbs, hpoe Tinkoff let him have the chance.

    Agreed - his chase back on shows he must be on tipity top form and I'd like to see him return to winning ways
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,823
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641984#p19641984]disgruntledgoat[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641977#p19641977]Timoid.[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19641869#p19641869]TakeTheHighRoad[/url] wrote:
    Lazy journalism means I cba finding the answer to this question.

    With the possibility of Dumoulin taking yellow today, then A.N.Other rider taking over again tomorrow (assuming Canc has a mare on the cobbles), has there ever been four different riders in yellow in four days before?


    You are familiar with Mr Cancellara? Not a good assumption.

    How much time could Sagan put into Canc on the Muur?


    I see the two of them as quite similar in potential up that. They both thrive on the likes of Berendries and the Valkenberg in RVV so this shouldn't be too much different.

    Admittedly, it's a slim possibility, but as with every lazy journalist I'm making assumptions to fit my narrative ;)
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,731
    I think Contador will try and grab a few seconds on his rivals.
    He is probably the best suited of the big 4 for the Huy finish and he is clearly worried about
    just how much time he is going to ship tomorrow, on the cobbles.

    Valverde, D Martin or Albasini for the win. (possibly Purito if he isn't too banged up)
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • letape2
    letape2 Posts: 22
    I definitely see this as a race between Valverde and D Martin.

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