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bendertherobot

Fair play, Corbyn actually made tea time. That's actually quite impressive.

cycleclinic

how though. If he does stand again and get relected the labour party will have to split or face oblivion. I am not a labour supporter but oblivion/split will probably mean a bigger conservative MP count which is not a good thing. The left wingers really need to realise most of the country is not like them and never will be.

morstar

Tangled Metal wrote:

Someone pages back said that the non sun reading Liverpool voted in. Can I just point out that like Manchester, Liverpool voted remain because the centre of those cities actually have a more metropolitan, well paid set of residents who tend to be more pro Europe. It's a pattern that was seen elsewhere in similar with similar demographics.

Of course it's a good southerner's view to see Liverpool as a socialist haven full of working classes to the left of Corbyn. There's areas like that but in the part of Liverpool and Manchester who voted remain, they're no different from the remain voting areas of London, that is they have money, education and good jobs that possibly deal with Europe. Boris was sent to apologise to Liverpool for dodgy comments in the past. Sun is read in Liverpool just not in all areas. I'm sure there's other stereotypes about Liverpool that's only true to southerners who've never been there.

PS I'm one generation away from Liverpool born and bred so my chip is still on my shoulder about Liverpool.

That was me. Wasn't trying to pass judgement on Liverpool, I simply thought the influence of the press was possibly an interesting element. Don't underestimate the power of propaganda. And the Sun is far lower readership in Liverpool than elsewhere of similar demographic. Ergo Liverpool was less exposed to a pro leave propaganda campaign.
FWIW, Chorley is north of Liverpool and I've got some pretty negative first hand experiences of Liverpool if and when I do wish to put it down. But that wasn't my intention.
What was it you were saying about generalisations?

Stevo_666

thecycleclinic wrote:

how though. If he does stand again and get relected the labour party will have to split or face oblivion. I am not a labour supporter but oblivion/split will probably mean a bigger conservative MP count which is not a good thing. The left wingers really need to realise most of the country is not like them and never will be.

I can see a Labour split coming on as the party is fundamentally different from the grass roots membership, who will almost certainly back Corbyn if he stands again as he says he will.

Mind you, the Europe issue looks like it will turn things on its head regardless of this.

mrfpb

con

Stevo 666 wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

how though. If he does stand again and get relected the labour party will have to split or face oblivion. I am not a labour supporter but oblivion/split will probably mean a biggerconservative MP count which is not a good thing. The left wingers really need to realise most of the country is not like them and never will be.

I can see a Labour split coming on as the party is fundamentally different from the grass roots membership, who will almost certainly back Corbyn if he stands again as he says he will.

Mind you, the Europe issue looks like it will turn things on its head regardless of this.

The problem is any breakaway group will get demolished at the polls. When the SDP broke away in 1983, they at least had Roy Jenkins, who had always been a serious contender and had a good track record as a minister, they still got demolished in 1987. There is no one on the labour front bench with any experience or political standing to head up a breakaway that will have any impact. Not much chance of ejecting the far left either, while JC has massive grassroots support.

rolf_f

Stevo 666 wrote:

She now says Scotland needs a second referendum because its essential that Scotland stays in the EU :roll: She is an opportunist but not much more.

She could end up on a sticky wicket with this. The justification for a second Scottish referendum will be that whilst UK as a whole voted out, Scotland voted in.

However, in the Scottish referendum, only Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dundee voted to leave the UK. The rest of Scotland voted to remain part of the UK. If she wants another referendum on this argument and the result is broadly similar to the previous, the only consistent line she can take is that Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dundee go it alone and leave the majority of Scotland (Geographically) to remain part of the UK.

pblakeney

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

She now says Scotland needs a second referendum because its essential that Scotland stays in the EU :roll: She is an opportunist but not much more.

She could end up on a sticky wicket with this. The justification for a second Scottish referendum will be that whilst UK as a whole voted out, Scotland voted in.

However, in the Scottish referendum, only Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dundee voted to leave the UK. The rest of Scotland voted to remain part of the UK. If she wants another referendum on this argument and the result is broadly similar to the previous, the only consistent line she can take is that Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dundee go it alone and leave the majority of Scotland (Geographically) to remain part of the UK.

It just shows how complex this unneccessary situation is.
Scotland voted to remain in the UK. Scotland voted to remain in the EU. But there can be only one.

Stevo_666

mrfpb wrote:

con

Stevo 666 wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

how though. If he does stand again and get relected the labour party will have to split or face oblivion. I am not a labour supporter but oblivion/split will probably mean a biggerconservative MP count which is not a good thing. The left wingers really need to realise most of the country is not like them and never will be.

I can see a Labour split coming on as the party is fundamentally different from the grass roots membership, who will almost certainly back Corbyn if he stands again as he says he will.

Mind you, the Europe issue looks like it will turn things on its head regardless of this.

The problem is any breakaway group will get demolished at the polls. When the SDP broke away in 1983, they at least had Roy Jenkins, who had always been a serious contender and had a good track record as a minister, they still got demolished in 1987. There is no one on the labour front bench with any experience or political standing to head up a breakaway that will have any impact. Not much chance of ejecting the far left either, while JC has massive grassroots support.

Maybe.

Here is how one scenario could play out and I think many in Labour have twigged that this is their best shot at power - this assumes that ratifying the referendum result and triggering article 50 of the Lisbon treaty needs to be done by a vote in parliament:
- Breakaway New Labour group formed on a clear anti-BREXIT mandate
- Vote to ratify in parliament is opposed by 'New' Labour, probably a fair bit of the old rump Labour, Lib Dems and possibly the majority of the Tory MPS and so fails to be passed.
- Government probably has no choice but to call a general election
- New Labour, Old Labour, Lib Dems stand on an anti-BREXIT ticket.
- Tory party may also splinter at this point with anti-BREXIT tories breaking away?
- GE is fought essentially on a single issue.

Effectively the electorate get a second referendum on BREXIT, dressed up as a general election....

bobmcstuff

/\ I think this is fairly likely.

Regardless I think we need a GE as a matter of urgency so we have a party in power who have a mandate to negotiate for a particular post-Brexit deal (because at the moment there is no clear preferred outcome and it's hard to see how there will be)

mrfpb

But the only clear Brexit party who are guaranteed to say what they mean will be UKIP, and splitting the vote for other major parties will let them in to a lot of seats. I think the major parties will paper over a lot of cracks before letting that happen.

mrfpb

172 to 40 against JC in the confidence vote. WIll he gone by the 6:00 news or will he hang on till 10:00?

bobmcstuff

Jeremy Corbyn is like a student who's been asked to leave the classroom but refuses so the teacher just moves the class somewhere else.

Stevo_666

He says he's staying and the Labour rules combined with who the member support means its very difficult to unseat him. They will need to trigger a formal leadership contest and JC will stand again. Groundhog day for the Labour party?

I guess Corbyn thinks this is the last chance of the leftiebollox brigade hanging onto power in Labour - but if he does I reckon they will split. A variant the teacher taking the class elsewhere mentioned above.

I wonder what any splinter group would call themselves? We've had New Labour then New Old Labour. Maybe New New Labour?

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

I wonder what any splinter group would call themselves? We've had New Labour then New Old Labour. Maybe New New Labour?

Tory Lite.
Cos that's what they are.

mrfpb

Ever the diplomat, Lord Blunkett:

Former Labour minister David Blunkett thinks that Jeremy Corbyn supporters should leave Labour and form their own "suicidal, kamikaze party".

mrfpb

Can anyone explain to Ms Dugdale how to calculate 80% of 1

Dugdale: I couldn't do my job if I lost support of 80% of my MSPs

And I THINK Dugdale is the only Lab MSP.

ballysmate

Stevo 666 wrote:

He says he's staying and the Labour rules combined with who the member support means its very difficult to unseat him. They will need to trigger a formal leadership contest and JC will stand again. Groundhog day for the Labour party?

I guess Corbyn thinks this is the last chance of the leftiebollox brigade hanging onto power in Labour - but if he does I reckon they will split. A variant the teacher taking the class elsewhere mentioned above.

I wonder what any splinter group would call themselves? We've had New Labour then New Old Labour. Maybe New New Labour?

SDP?

bobmcstuff

Ballysmate wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

He says he's staying and the Labour rules combined with who the member support means its very difficult to unseat him. They will need to trigger a formal leadership contest and JC will stand again. Groundhog day for the Labour party?

I guess Corbyn thinks this is the last chance of the leftiebollox brigade hanging onto power in Labour - but if he does I reckon they will split. A variant the teacher taking the class elsewhere mentioned above.

I wonder what any splinter group would call themselves? We've had New Labour then New Old Labour. Maybe New New Labour?

SDP?

mrfpb wrote:

Ever the diplomat, Lord Blunkett:

Former Labour minister David Blunkett thinks that Jeremy Corbyn supporters should leave Labour and form their own "suicidal, kamikaze party".

SKP?

orraloon

mrfpb wrote:

Can anyone explain to Ms Dugdale how to calculate 80% of 1

Dugdale: I couldn't do my job if I lost support of 80% of my MSPs

And I THINK Dugdale is the only Lab MSP.

Bzzzt! There are 23 Scottish Labour MSPs. Google is your friend.

You may be mixing with the fact that there is 1 x Labour MP from Scotland in the Westminster parliament.

mrfpb

orraloon wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Can anyone explain to Ms Dugdale how to calculate 80% of 1

Dugdale: I couldn't do my job if I lost support of 80% of my MSPs

And I THINK Dugdale is the only Lab MSP.

Bzzzt! There are 23 Scottish Labour MSPs. Google is your friend.

You may be mixing with the fact that there is 1 x Labour MP from Scotland in the Westminster parliament.

Yep, that's me not thinking.

Oddly a leadership challenge requires the support of 20% of MPs + MEPs (50 names) but no MSPs. Nomination for Tory leadership requires 2 MPs. Expect a long list of Tory nominees, unless the Whips start doing some heavy leaning.

mrfpb

orraloon wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Can anyone explain to Ms Dugdale how to calculate 80% of 1

Dugdale: I couldn't do my job if I lost support of 80% of my MSPs

And I THINK Dugdale is the only Lab MSP.

Bzzzt! There are 23 Scottish Labour MSPs. Google is your friend.

You may be mixing with the fact that there is 1 x Labour MP from Scotland in the Westminster parliament.

Yep, that's me not thinking.

Oddly a leadership challenge requires the support of 20% of MPs + MEPs (50 names) but no MSPs. Nomination for Tory leadership requires 2 MPs. Expect a long list of Tory nominees, unless the Whips start doing some heavy leaning.

joelsim

This is really very good.

https://medium.com/@carlgardner/for-bri ... .nsfyrzis9

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

This is really very good.

https://medium.com/@carlgardner/for-bri ... .nsfyrzis9

Not bad in terms of there being a single issue GE and a non-triggering of article 50 as the result as I posted on the last page. The ideas of the Tories passing a motion of no confidence in themselves is a novel idea.

bobmcstuff

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

This is really very good.

https://medium.com/@carlgardner/for-bri ... .nsfyrzis9

Not bad in terms of there being a single issue GE and a non-triggering of article 50 as the result as I posted on the last page. The ideas of the Tories passing a motion of no confidence in themselves is a novel idea.

Whether we trigger article 50 or not we need a general election anyway.

Stevo_666

bobmcstuff wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

This is really very good.

https://medium.com/@carlgardner/for-bri ... .nsfyrzis9

Not bad in terms of there being a single issue GE and a non-triggering of article 50 as the result as I posted on the last page. The ideas of the Tories passing a motion of no confidence in themselves is a novel idea.

Whether we trigger article 50 or not we need a general election anyway.

It appears that triggering Article 50 needs a commons vote so as mentioned above if there isna cross party rebellion on this, I reckon a GE is almost inevitable. But it will be like no other.

bobmcstuff

Shadow secretary of state for education, Pat Glass, has resigned - after being appointed on Monday...

Emma Lewell-Buck, shadow secretary for communities and local government has also quit in the last half hour.

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

This is really very good.

https://medium.com/@carlgardner/for-bri ... .nsfyrzis9

Not bad in terms of there being a single issue GE and a non-triggering of article 50 as the result as I posted on the last page. The ideas of the Tories passing a motion of no confidence in themselves is a novel idea.

Whether we trigger article 50 or not we need a general election anyway.

It appears that triggering Article 50 needs a commons vote so as mentioned above if there isna cross party rebellion on this, I reckon a GE is almost inevitable. But it will be like no other.

Yep. And with c. 70% Labour voters voting Remain in the Ref, and a new leader...

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

and a new leader...

More that, it will effectively be a single issue GE.

Labour still have to get over the small point that a leadership challenge will have Corbyn as a candidate and effectively the same electoral base for the leadership election as voted him in last year. It may not be the same Labour party that has a new leader if JC continues to dig his heels in.

mrfpb

When does self belief and determination become arrogance. Even Mrs T. wasn't this pig headed over the leadership challenge to her - she never polled less than 50% of her MPs, but knew when the game was up.

Quietest ever PMQS happening now. DC just told JC "for heaven's sake man, just go".

Stevo_666

mrfpb wrote:

When does self belief and determination become arrogance. Even Mrs T. wasn't this pig headed over the leadership challenge to her - she never polled less than 50% of her MPs, but knew when the game was up.

Quietest ever PMQS happening now. DC just told JC "for heaven's sake man, just go".

If 80% or so of the Labour party MP's delivering a vote of no confidence isn't going to sway him, the Tory leader might not manage it either.

Otherwise Labour will have to splinter to get round this unless the members somehow change their deep seated views (unlikely).