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finchy

So Stevo, what about someone in, say, their 40s or 50s who's been doing skilled manual labour for the past 20 or 30 years? In all likelihood, they're going to find it very, very difficult to find an employer who will give them a chance to embark on a new career at that age.

How old were you back in the 1980s? In your 20s I think, and IIRC correctly you've said that your children are still at school, so you would have been childless at the time. It's all very well saying "I did this and everyone else should take responsibility for their own life", but not everyone is in the same situation as you were back then. I know if my work dried up, I'd be in no position now to do some of the things I did (such as go abroad to find work) when I was 25 and single.

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

So you answer is that you dint know.

My answer is that the best solution is reskilling and job hunting assistance, as I already said above.

Although as with anything in life, the primary responsibility rests with the individuals concerned - as it did with me back in the late 1980's.

I thought I'd made it perfectly clear that I don't have the solution to hand.
Your answer is what I expected.
Trouble is that they can't simply move for the reason I stated (trapped in a house they can't sell) and training for what as there is nothing else in the area? The area will require massive investment, which won't be coming.
As I said earlier, platitudes and hollow promises are all I expect.

Re the O&G industry. Last estimate I read was that it came to 100,000 including support personnel and suppliers.

Stevo_666

finchy wrote:

So Stevo, what about someone in, say, their 40s or 50s who's been doing skilled manual labour for the past 20 or 30 years? In all likelihood, they're going to find it very, very difficult to find an employer who will give them a chance to embark on a new career at that age.

How old were you back in the 1980s? In your 20s I think, and IIRC correctly you've said that your children are still at school, so you would have been childless at the time. It's all very well saying "I did this and everyone else should take responsibility for their own life", but not everyone is in the same situation as you were back then. I know if my work dried up, I'd be in no position now to do some of the things I did (such as go abroad to find work) when I was 25 and single.

Another example of the mentality I mentioned above, that everyone is a helpless victim reliant on state benevolence. Tine to change your mindset as this is the sort of thing that is holding us back.

I did same same thing in my forties. Took some time and and came back into the job market. When I had kids etc.

So your point is what, exactly?

finchy

My point is that it isn't always as simple as you make it out to be. You were able to get back into the job market, but you might have had different circumstances to these employees. Other people might have tried just as hard as you, but not made it for whatever reason. I used to know somebody like that, he had 30 years of working in one particular profession (I forget which), got into a management position then lost his job. He did everything he could - attended courses, applied for jobs all over the country, did voluntary work, paid for a professional CV writer and help with job applications - but nothing happened for him, and he ended up doing precarious minimum wage work. Life isn't the same for all people.

pinno

Just a point or two regarding the steel industry.

The ex Lord Admiral said that UK steel was very necessary strategically vis-a-vis our ability to build war ships autonomously.

The US put a tariff if 234% on imported steel. The EU have attempted to place similar tariffs but the country dragging their heels on this - the UK !

pblakeney

Why have the government appeared to be incompetent, or disinterested?
A possible answer - http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/steel ... -5ld9882x3

rick_chasey

Pinno wrote:

Just a point or two regarding the steel industry.

The ex Lord Admiral said that UK steel was very necessary strategically vis-a-vis our ability to build war ships autonomously.

The US put a tariff if 234% on imported steel. The EU have attempted to place similar tariffs but the country dragging their heels on this - the UK !

The US is engaged in a trade war with China.

pblakeney

Rick Chasey wrote:

Pinno wrote:

Just a point or two regarding the steel industry.

The ex Lord Admiral said that UK steel was very necessary strategically vis-a-vis our ability to build war ships autonomously.

The US put a tariff if 234% on imported steel. The EU have attempted to place similar tariffs but the country dragging their heels on this - the UK !

The US is engaged in a trade war with China.

Just a personal opinion, but I think China is in a trade war with everyone.
They don't do anything other than look after their own interests.

rick_chasey

http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com ... arket.html

orraloon

PBlakeney wrote:

They don't do anything other than look after their own interests.

Real world alert. The US is only concerned with its own interests, as is China.

I listen regularly to a number of USanian economic and financial podcasts, from NPR, Motley Fool et al.
Is clear from their tone that free trade is great as long as it means the US can sell its own products in other countries but when their native industries are threatened by foreign competition, whoops up come the trade barrier tariffs.

And that's the brave new world the EU-phobes expect us to magically thrive on our ownsome. :?

pblakeney

orraloon wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

They don't do anything other than look after their own interests.

Real world alert. The US is only concerned with its own interests, as is China.

I listen regularly to a number of USanian economic and financial podcasts, from NPR, Motley Fool et al.
Is clear from their tone that free trade is great as long as it means the US can sell its own products in other countries but when their native industries are threatened by foreign competition, whoops up come the trade barrier tariffs.

And that's the brave new world the EU-phobes expect us to magically thrive on our ownsome. :?

True. But China is using it's power and influence more outside it's own borders.
Look at Africa for example.
Consider where the Chinese will get the steel from to build power stations in the UK as another (prime) example.

pblakeney

Getting back on topic......
I wonder if Jeremy is actually worried about his opposition?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... meron.html

Stevo_666

finchy wrote:

My point is that it isn't always as simple as you make it out to be. You were able to get back into the job market, but you might have had different circumstances to these employees. Other people might have tried just as hard as you, but not made it for whatever reason. I used to know somebody like that, he had 30 years of working in one particular profession (I forget which), got into a management position then lost his job. He did everything he could - attended courses, applied for jobs all over the country, did voluntary work, paid for a professional CV writer and help with job applications - but nothing happened for him, and he ended up doing precarious minimum wage work. Life isn't the same for all people.

Of course it isn't the same - there is always luck, circumstances etc. But the distinguishing factor is effort, not state assistance: those that want to help themselves and have the get up and go will do. I'm nothing out of the ordinary, but have managed to reskill twice - successfully and completely down to my own efforts. So it is possible. There will always be winners and losers in this - it's life.

I visit Wales quite a bit as you know and they are a friendly and enterprising bunch - the fact that they get my 'tourist dollars' on a regular basis is testament to that and a good sign for those in Wales that are affected by this. I hope that as many of them as possible who are laid off find good opportunities.

On a more positive note, I noticed that Aston Martin are opening a production facility not far from Port Talbot and creating 750 new jobs:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-35640339

Also let's not forget that UK unemployment overall has come down significantly since DC entered Downing Street in 2010 and is still at record lows:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35111020

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

On a more positive note, I noticed that Aston Martin are opening a production facility not far from Port Talbot and creating 750 new jobs:

That's great! Nice handy supply of steel nearby. Oh!.......

pinno

Stevo 666 wrote:

finchy wrote:

My

Also let's not forget that UK unemployment overall has come down significantly since DC entered Downing Street in 2010 and is still at record lows:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35111020

Not withstanding the 1m in Zero hours contracts that aren't classed as unemployed.

750 jobs - whoopie do.

Stevo_666

Pinno wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

finchy wrote:

My

Also let's not forget that UK unemployment overall has come down significantly since DC entered Downing Street in 2010 and is still at record lows:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35111020

Not withstanding the 1m in Zero hours contracts that aren't classed as unemployed.

750 jobs - whoopie do.

Lefties can always find negatives in good news. So once again: UK unemployment is at record low levels.



Some people use zero hours contracts as a flexible way of working. Or would you rather these people were on the dole?

mamba80

Stevo 666 wrote:

Of course it isn't the same - there is always luck, circumstances etc. But the distinguishing factor is effort, not state assistance: those that want to help themselves and have the get up and go will do. I'm nothing out of the ordinary, but have managed to reskill twice - successfully and completely down to my own efforts. So it is possible. There will always be winners and losers in this - it's life.

I visit Wales quite a bit as you know and they are a friendly and enterprising bunch - the fact that they get my 'tourist dollars' on a regular basis is testament to that and a good sign for those in Wales that are affected by this. I hope that as many of them as possible who are laid off find good opportunities.

On a more positive note, I noticed that Aston Martin are opening a production facility not far from Port Talbot and creating 750 new jobs:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-35640339

Steve0, soooo much depends on your age, your financial position, luck, circumstance as you say play apart but we ve not all got the same ability drive etc effort and get up and go, which in my exp is a small part.

i went from manual work to voice and data comms all over the world and it was all started with free Higher ed and free uni (so a heap of state assistance) something thats not available now and as an adult its even harder, mortgage, kids, elderly family all make it very hard to re train and then almost certainly have to move.
for many of these people in their 40s or 50's its all they ve known and what awaits them is the dole or a Tescos checkout if they are lucky.
So lets hope Sajid Javid is right and British steel has a future.

as for tarrifs seems the Chinese are now applying them to EU goods, even though the EU has applied very little to Chinese goods!

finchy

Stevo 666 wrote:

Of course it isn't the same - there is always luck, circumstances etc. But the distinguishing factor is effort, not state assistance: those that want to help themselves and have the get up and go will do. I'm nothing out of the ordinary, but have managed to reskill twice - successfully and completely down to my own efforts. So it is possible. There will always be winners and losers in this - it's life.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you seem to be suggesting that the state should offer assistance with training and then nothing more. This is where I disagree with you. I don't know what your personal circumstances were, whether you had to move to pursue a new career, how old you were, etc. but having thousands of people lose their jobs in a part of the UK which has suffered a fair bit due to de-industrialisation will require more than just training.

Also, having worked in adult education and training myself, I can tell you now that many of the courses that the government funds, including for the unemployed, are worth less than f*ck all. How the hell the companies offering them keep conning the government is beyond me.

Stevo 666 wrote:

Also let's not forget that UK unemployment overall has come down significantly since DC entered Downing Street in 2010 and is still at record lows:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35111020

UK unemployment has, of course, come down since 2010, it's probably gone about as low as it's going to go now, but it's difficult to say that it's at record lows because the way it's counted keeps getting changed and governments keep finding new ways of shunting unemployed people off the books. I don't know when this report dates from, but it's an example of how the unemployment rate is higher than the numbers of people claiming the dole. I'm not blaming the Tories for this situation, as Labour were also very good at massaging the figures when they were in power, but it's quite difficult to compare unemployment now with unemployment in year 19xx.

(From the link above)

Professor Steve Fothergill, who led the research, said: “For more than 20 years successive governments have hidden the true scale of unemployment, especially by parking vast numbers on incapacity benefits.”

“The health problems and disabilities of these men and women are real, but we estimate that as many as 900,000 of the 2.5m on incapacity benefits would have been in work in a genuinely fully-employed economy.”

Stevo_666

mamba80 wrote:

as for tarrifs seems the Chinese are now applying them to EU goods, even though the EU has applied very little to Chinese goods!

I noticed today that China has applied a 46% tariff for EU, Japan and S. Korea on a type of high tech steel. They do seem to be taking the p1ss here. So I am half minded to say why not retaliate.

Problem is, overcapacity in the world and particularly Chinese steel industry is substantial and will not go away quickly. So low steel prices are here to stay for now. It's a double edged sword though as if we need cheap steel from China, slapping punitive tariffs on it will raise our raw material costs.

Stevo_666

finchy wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Of course it isn't the same - there is always luck, circumstances etc. But the distinguishing factor is effort, not state assistance: those that want to help themselves and have the get up and go will do. I'm nothing out of the ordinary, but have managed to reskill twice - successfully and completely down to my own efforts. So it is possible. There will always be winners and losers in this - it's life.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you seem to be suggesting that the state should offer assistance with training and then nothing more. This is where I disagree with you. I don't know what your personal circumstances were, whether you had to move to pursue a new career, how old you were, etc. but having thousands of people lose their jobs in a part of the UK which has suffered a fair bit due to de-industrialisation will require more than just training.

Also, having worked in adult education and training myself, I can tell you now that many of the courses that the government funds, including for the unemployed, are worth less than f*ck all. How the hell the companies offering them keep conning the government is beyond me.

Stevo 666 wrote:

Also let's not forget that UK unemployment overall has come down significantly since DC entered Downing Street in 2010 and is still at record lows:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35111020

UK unemployment has, of course, come down since 2010, it's probably gone about as low as it's going to go now, but it's difficult to say that it's at record lows because the way it's counted keeps getting changed and governments keep finding new ways of shunting unemployed people off the books. I don't know when this report dates from, but it's an example of how the unemployment rate is higher than the numbers of people claiming the dole. I'm not blaming the Tories for this situation, as Labour were also very good at massaging the figures when they were in power, but it's quite difficult to compare unemployment now with unemployment in year 19xx.

(From the link above)

Professor Steve Fothergill, who led the research, said: “For more than 20 years successive governments have hidden the true scale of unemployment, especially by parking vast numbers on incapacity benefits.”

“The health problems and disabilities of these men and women are real, but we estimate that as many as 900,000 of the 2.5m on incapacity benefits would have been in work in a genuinely fully-employed economy.”

On the first point, what do you think the state can realistically do in this case? It can't magic jobs out of thin air. I think you may overestimate what is feasible for the state to do.

On the second point, you can also look at number of people in work - also at a record high and harder to fudge. I know it's hard to swallow good news under a tory govt. but good news it is.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2016#employment

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

I noticed today that China has applied a 46% tariff for EU, Japan and S. Korea on a type of high tech steel. They do seem to be taking the p1ss here. So I am half minded to say why not retaliate.

Finally coming round to my way of thinking.

Stevo_666

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I noticed today that China has applied a 46% tariff for EU, Japan and S. Korea on a type of high tech steel. They do seem to be taking the p1ss here. So I am half minded to say why not retaliate.

Finally coming round to my way of thinking.

If new facts come to light I take them into consideration.

Lookyhere

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I noticed today that China has applied a 46% tariff for EU, Japan and S. Korea on a type of high tech steel. They do seem to be taking the p1ss here. So I am half minded to say why not retaliate.

Finally coming round to my way of thinking.

Wasnt it steve0, bally and Rick that poo hoo ed tariffs few days ago, when i raised that the tories had blocked eu moves to increase tariffs on chinese steel, echo chamber rick????

the tories have once again backed the wrong horse, when is he and others going to realise that China, more than any other state, doesnt give a xxxx about anyone else?

Camerons latest idea to the chinese is to wait until September at next G7 meeting to discuss, chinas reaction... slap another tariff on EU steel now.... he is on another planet.

pblakeney

Lookyhere wrote:

Camerons latest idea to the chinese is to wait until September at next G7 meeting to discuss, chinas reaction... slap another tariff on EU steel now.... he is on another planet.

Tata will have waved ta ta by then.

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I noticed today that China has applied a 46% tariff for EU, Japan and S. Korea on a type of high tech steel. They do seem to be taking the p1ss here. So I am half minded to say why not retaliate.

Finally coming round to my way of thinking.

If new facts come to light I take them into consideration.

Good to know. I could seek out more facts, but think I'll go out on my bike instead...... :P

ballysmate

Lookyhere wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I noticed today that China has applied a 46% tariff for EU, Japan and S. Korea on a type of high tech steel. They do seem to be taking the p1ss here. So I am half minded to say why not retaliate.

Finally coming round to my way of thinking.

Wasnt it steve0, bally and Rick that poo hoo ed tariffs few days ago, when i raised that the tories had blocked eu moves to increase tariffs on chinese steel, echo chamber rick????

the tories have once again backed the wrong horse, when is he and others going to realise that China, more than any other state, doesnt give a xxxx about anyone else?

Camerons latest idea to the chinese is to wait until September at next G7 meeting to discuss, chinas reaction... slap another tariff on EU steel now.... he is on another planet.

I did point out that raised tariffs on Chinese steel would hit what's left of our manufacturing industry and consequently jobs as our exports would be more expensive. 8 out of 10 cars made here go abroad. That would still be the case. There is scope for upping any tariff without scrapping the lesser duty rule as some seem to have advocated.
Whether we are in any position to wage a trade war with China, who I agree, only cares about China is a different matter. Retaliatory tariffs as the Chinese have moved first? Perhaps there is now little option but I fear that it will not end well for us.

ballysmate

In the first half of JLR’s current financial year, China accounted for 18.7% of net retail sales, compared with 27.7% in the same period a year ago. As sales fall in the world’s second biggest economy, the carmaker has moved up a gear in other regions.

JLR directly employs 37,000 people worldwide. In addition, 210,000 UK jobs are supported through the supply chain and wider economy. It has factories in Halewood near Liverpool, and in the West Midlands at Castle Bromwich, Solihull and Wolverhampton, where it has a new engine manufacturing centre that JLR has committed to double in size, taking its investment in the factory to £1bn.

As well as rebuilding its UK manufacturing base, JLR has opened overseas factories to keep pace with demand. Besides China, it also produces vehicles in the conglomerate’s home country India and is to begin production in Brazil next year.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... s-forecast

In a trade war with massive tariffs imposed, what do you think will happen to some of these 210,000 jobs?

pinno

At another level, the UK should be working towards producing higher end quality steel for a high tech market and high tech products. The whole argument does not really paint a realistic picture of steel demand vis-a-vis purpose. It's a bit like talking about blanket net immigration into the UK without differentiating between EU migrants, non EU economic migrants, asylum seekers, refugees etc etc.
The Chinese obviously see the current situation as a threat and are protecting their markets. They have heavily subsidised their industry to achieve a monopoly so to get to a point where all that subsidy is now threatened by reduced demand, they are suddenly under pressure. I think that there is also a link with the slow down of their economy: they are a bit tetchy at the moment.
For a proper bun fight, the west (including the US) should engage with Japan, India, Korea and all the countries affected by the tariffs imposed by China.

Stevo_666

As I said above it's a double edged sword if we start imposing tariffs - everyone suffers. Unfortunately it has already started. We are also unable to act unilateraly as import tariffs are done on an EU basis.

The hard headed view is that steel production here is already small and declining - possibly rapidly if Tata shut up shop without finding a buyer. However we have other successful industries such as Ballys JLR example that will suffer from retaliatory tariffs imposed by China. It is not an easy situation to be in.

Pinno's idea of ganging up on China has some merit. So a G7/G20 approach could work but will take time.

Stevo_666

Lookyhere wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I noticed today that China has applied a 46% tariff for EU, Japan and S. Korea on a type of high tech steel. They do seem to be taking the p1ss here. So I am half minded to say why not retaliate.

Finally coming round to my way of thinking.

Wasnt it steve0, bally and Rick that poo hoo ed tariffs few days ago, when i raised that the tories had blocked eu moves to increase tariffs on chinese steel, echo chamber rick????

the tories have once again backed the wrong horse, when is he and others going to realise that China, more than any other state, doesnt give a xxxx about anyone else?

Camerons latest idea to the chinese is to wait until September at next G7 meeting to discuss, chinas reaction... slap another tariff on EU steel now.... he is on another planet.

As mentioned above, I look at the facts and and take a view based on them. If new facts change the situation then I reappraise. As opposed to some who come out with an answer without looking at the facts and stick to it regardless

See also my point that the UK cannot unilaterally impose tariffs - EU rules.

And as mentioned above this goes wider than just the steel industry, so Corbyn's one dimensional drum banging is not addressing the whole issue - as you would expect he is engaging in a spot of political opportunism.