BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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mrfpb wrote:Veronese68 wrote:
No we shouldn't stop having the elections, but we should consider the consequences. We're not sacrificing democracy.Coopster the 1st wrote:And as mrfpb pointed out, we should not stop having democratic elections because they cause market jitters. Or is democracy a worthwhile sacrifice for market stability?
In balance to my original argument, the market jitters promoted a speedy decision making process in the case of the 2010 election. Compare this to countries such as Iraq or Ireland where it has taken several months to form a government following an inconclusive election. The jitters are due to the size of our economy, and are another reason to believe that negotiations will be less protracted than some commentators believe.
This isn't the Irish or Middle East peace process, there aren't centuries of hate to overcome. In the event of an Out vote it's in everyone's interest to be constructive in negotiating an exit.
Since when has being in everyones interests stopped mankind from doing themselves over? there are absolutely no guarantees anyone will be falling over themselves to do trade with us, as our economy falls, others will step in and do what we used too.
Leaving is a big gamble, if the £ and ftse are dropping and fED is delaying rate raises, then we need to look at why that might be, confidence in the worlds 5th largest economy is falling.0 -
Given that Japan are today panicking that the Yen keeps rising, I think panic over the pound falling is misplaced. A low pound helps exporters of goods and services.
The pound went up following the announcement of the referendum, and while it has fallen in the last two weeks, it's still 2.5 cents higher than it was at the start of April (compared to the Euro). It has risen against the dollar in the last two days, though it's still low compared to values over the last year. Everything depends on where you look on the graph and how far back you go.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/mark ... _month.stm
If you look at the BBC's graph for currency rates (which only go back twelve months) you will see that the real fall against the dollar and euro happened from Nov-Jan and it has been up and down a bit since the referendum started, but actually more stable than in the previous 3 - 4 month period. Currencies fluctuate all the time, and I don't see the last three months as shocking. As I said earlier, some people on both sides are choosing to focus on extremes and negatives in the available data.
There is massive uncertainty which be resolved in part when we get a result. After the result it will be down to negotiation and the tone of the negotiation will determine how the markets react. No, I don't know if people will act in the best interests of overall market stability, but you don't know either if they will act the other way.0 -
Various media (Mail, Guardian, Sky) reporting that attacker of Jo Cox MP shouted 'Britain First' during shooting.
Leave and Remain campaigning suspended, which sort of lends credence.
If these reports are true, all who have played whatever form of hate card over the past few months need to look hard at their conscience.
Sad times in which we live.
And for the avoidance of doubt this is not a political point scoring post. Just sickened by the divisions in our society.0 -
orraloon wrote:Various media (Mail, Guardian, Sky) reporting that attacker of Jo Cox MP shouted 'Britain First' during shooting.
Leave and Remain campaigning suspended, which sort of lends credence.
If these reports are true, all who have played whatever form of hate card over the past few months need to look hard at their conscience.
Sad times in which we live.
And for the avoidance of doubt this is not a political point scoring post. Just sickened by the divisions in our society.
I had wondered why you posted it here, but the possible reference to Britain First makes sense - it just wasn't mentioned in the BBC link. I hope it will make some in the campaigns and the media step back and look at how we've conducted this campaign. I say we, because we tend to get the media and politics we ask for.0 -
mrfpb wrote:Veronese68 wrote:
No we shouldn't stop having the elections, but we should consider the consequences. We're not sacrificing democracy.Coopster the 1st wrote:And as mrfpb pointed out, we should not stop having democratic elections because they cause market jitters. Or is democracy a worthwhile sacrifice for market stability?
In balance to my original argument, the market jitters promoted a speedy decision making process in the case of the 2010 election. Compare this to countries such as Iraq or Ireland where it has taken several months to form a government following an inconclusive election. The jitters are due to the size of our economy, and are another reason to believe that negotiations will be less protracted than some commentators believe.
This isn't the Irish or Middle East peace process, there aren't centuries of hate to overcome. In the event of an Out vote it's in everyone's interest to be constructive in negotiating an exit.
No it isn't.0 -
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Rick Chasey wrote:mrfpb wrote:Veronese68 wrote:
No we shouldn't stop having the elections, but we should consider the consequences. We're not sacrificing democracy.Coopster the 1st wrote:And as mrfpb pointed out, we should not stop having democratic elections because they cause market jitters. Or is democracy a worthwhile sacrifice for market stability?
In balance to my original argument, the market jitters promoted a speedy decision making process in the case of the 2010 election. Compare this to countries such as Iraq or Ireland where it has taken several months to form a government following an inconclusive election. The jitters are due to the size of our economy, and are another reason to believe that negotiations will be less protracted than some commentators believe.
This isn't the Irish or Middle East peace process, there aren't centuries of hate to overcome. In the event of an Out vote it's in everyone's interest to be constructive in negotiating an exit.
No it isn't.
and we have no leverage0 -
mrfp - you are very good at arguing a point of view..... would love to hear your background ie where you are coming from... and no I don't mean how much money you have.
Put another way - I really do not get why you are OUT0 -
mrfpb wrote:
There is massive uncertainty which be resolved in part when we get a result. After the result it will be down to negotiation and the tone of the negotiation will determine how the markets react. No, I don't know if people will act in the best interests of overall market stability, but you don't know either if they will act the other way.
This article sums it up far better than I can. Reading thing the first and last paragraphs gives you the gist.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... ferendum-0
THERE is an old story that puritanical Scottish preachers used to tell their congregations about sinners cast into the fires of hell. The condemned call out to the Almighty for mercy who replies “Did I not tell you to abandon your lives of drinking, fornicating and sinning?” “Yes, lord” comes the pitiable reply “but we didna ken.”* “Well” comes the implacable reply “Ye ken noo.”
Anyway, the shoddy reasoning may win out in the end. And then people will complain later in 2016 when jobs are lost and the purchasing power of their pounds declines, and say that no-one told them such things might happen. And it will give the rest of us no satisfaction at all to say “Ye ken noo”.0 -
I don't want to name my employer, but I work for an arms length organisation for a gov't dept - one with a secretary of state and a commons select committee, so my boss has great power, but accountability to parliament and gets to appear on BBC Parliament twice a year being grilled by MPs. Watching him have to defend the work I do informs my point of view on democratic accountability a great deal.
I have also worked extensively elsewhere in the public sector. I am not educated to degree level, but have a professional qualification.
I am a child of Irish immigrants and went to a primary school where most of my classmates were children or grandchildren of immigrants, including the Asian refugees expelled from Uganda. Again, a formative experience.
One of the extra curricular activites my school encouraged was debating and public speaking, it produced regional or national winners in both every year I was there, I was too much of an introvert to take part, but the principles of debating underpinned a lot of the English teaching in particular.
I'm not an activist for any party or politically affiliated organisation
I'm not sure if that's the stuff your after.
Additionally I do like riding my bike.0 -
I have to say mrfpb has made the most coherent case I've heard or read for leaving. I still think it's too optimistic and too big a gamble but at least it's reasoned and considers both sides.0
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Pross wrote:I have to say mrfpb has made the most coherent case I've heard or read for leaving. I still think it's too optimistic and too big a gamble but at least it's reasoned and considers both sides.
Thanks, I think the standard of debate has been quite high on this thread compared to the public debate, but it has taken some effort on both sides (and a bit of moderating) to keep it that way.0 -
mrfpb wrote:Pross wrote:I have to say mrfpb has made the most coherent case I've heard or read for leaving. I still think it's too optimistic and too big a gamble but at least it's reasoned and considers both sides.
Thanks, I think the standard of debate has been quite high on this thread compared to the public debate, but it has taken some effort on both sides (and a bit of moderating) to keep it that way.
Agreed with all of the above.
Appreciate the answer above and it is always best online to not be too specific. As somebody who has prospered in a multicultural UK , as part of the EU, why are you voting out?0 -
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That arctile is just another example of what the wrecking ball will knock over next.
the main problem with poltics now is campaigners get too carried away. Women get hate online for having opinions. MP's are all treated like they are on the take (they are not in general) and because politicans for so long have twisted the truth and used stats to confuse and obfiscate no one believes them much anymore. Take this EU debate. The don't know still don't know why because there a so many outlandish claims out there many people cant make head nor tale of what the votes means for them. Add to that we have a tabloid press (and some of the broadsheets are guilty too) of pedaling lies and you have a toxic mix. There are so many mistruths about how the EU works and what they do it is untrue. Hardly anyone can tell truth from fiction given the amount of misinformation out there. I don't think the journalists deliberatly lie either they write for the most part what they believe but half of what they write in factually wrong then add the lurid headlines to toxify opinion more.
As said earlier we get the politics we deserve and given we the public allow this to happen it happens. There needs to be on the ballot paper none of the above box. that would wake up those in power that there message is not swaying minds.
the culture of poltics is all wrong and free speech will suffer for it. free speech is not just about being able to say what ever you want. It is also about being listened too and being able to have a discussion with others who's mind can be changed by the power of arguement. all to often though free speech is seen as the right to say what ever you want even if it offends and while this is necessary it rarely persuades anyone to your point of view.
what british poltics has lost is the ability to debate and change peoples minds. We have many of the mechanisms in place to do it. We could start by not buying papers that print our point of view and those that print trash. by reading and listening to a variety of view points we challenge our own. all too often many in the public don't do that. This is why I don't use twitter it is a pointless echo chamber and no one is persuaded to change there view point it simply entrenches existing ones and it is a place where women find hate for having an opinion.
If we want out democracy back it starts at home. The EU has nothing to do with it that is one of the lies that many believe is true. It is easier to believe the problem is imported than home grown. Whatever the outcome of the referendum we still have to fix this but will we. this I am unsure off as collectively we always want to blame someone else.http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Mr Goo wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:mrfpb wrote:mrfpb wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:
Stufstuff
other stuff
I seem to have been defending someone else's words as my own. Apologies to Coopster and Rick
I answered Goo in a very civilised manner but got a rant about fishing - would you mind answering
I'm not sure I 'ranted' about fishing industry Mr Surrey Commuter.
As you have an economics degree, which I am sure would have involved looking at contributors to a state's economy, I wanted an explanation and your views on why you think being an EU member is beneficial to the UK Fishing fleet.
Most plebs like me know that the UK Fishing industry has been decimated by the EU. Yet it is something that the Remain campaign do not want to engage in dialogue. They merely send out a multi millionaire pop star come self proclaimed saviour of the 3rd world to slag off the fishermen.
FYI. I work in construction industry. Basic rate tax payer. Secondary school education. Small house. Wife 2 children. 2 cats. Gold tench in a small pond. Therefore officially classified as Pleb in the eyes of the educated, self righteous and who love to talk down to those who dare to think about their communities and country rather than their portfolio.
OK have just found figures from 24th September 2015 and the UK fishing industry is worth £861,000,000. Whilst that is important to the 11,800 people working in that industry it really does not matter in the grand scheme of things. The UK economy is worth nearly £3,000,000,000,000, which I think is 0.03%.
You may hate "the city" but they are the ones who fund everything
I guess my analogy here would be. A house is made of bricks and mortar with a roof. The roof being this wonderful utopian financial and banking system which is the Remain campaigns' main reason for staying in. Take away the individual bricks, fishing industry, steel etc etc, then you don't have a house to put a roof on.Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:mrfpb wrote:Veronese68 wrote:
No we shouldn't stop having the elections, but we should consider the consequences. We're not sacrificing democracy.Coopster the 1st wrote:And as mrfpb pointed out, we should not stop having democratic elections because they cause market jitters. Or is democracy a worthwhile sacrifice for market stability?
In balance to my original argument, the market jitters promoted a speedy decision making process in the case of the 2010 election. Compare this to countries such as Iraq or Ireland where it has taken several months to form a government following an inconclusive election. The jitters are due to the size of our economy, and are another reason to believe that negotiations will be less protracted than some commentators believe.
This isn't the Irish or Middle East peace process, there aren't centuries of hate to overcome. In the event of an Out vote it's in everyone's interest to be constructive in negotiating an exit.
No it isn't.
and we have no leverage
If the UK votes to leave next week. Do you honestly think that Germany, France et all are going to pull up the draw bridge? This is just damned right scaremongering. The likes of Mercedes, BMW and VW will be banging the door down to Herr Merkel's office to make sure that the trade agreements are sorted asap. Same will happen all over Europe. It's not just our exports that we should think about as the crux of the European issue. Europe in turn wants to export to the UK.
Queue the put downs.Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.0 -
Please don't tell me that you are voting "out" on the basis that Boris will rush off to Brussels after the vote and get a better deal, and then we'll all live happily ever after?finchy wrote:Aw crap, even the telephone polls now put us down as leaving the EU.
So if we vote out, we'll stay in the EU for another 2 years. I wonder if in that time the government will offer us a second referendum... a chance to change our minds if it all goes as badly wrong as they're predicting. I can't see the EU refusing us re-entry if that did happen, but it would probably mean Cameron and Osborne hanging on to power.
Jesus, I wish votes were intelligence-weighted.
I'm "in" because
(a) "out" are making mutually exclusive promises - its either common market AND free movement of people or, complete border control outside of the common market. If we leave, the rest of Europe will be hit quite hard and there won't be much appetite for giving us a sweet deal. Remember the rhetoric from the rest of the UK during the Scottish referendum. Same thing.
(b) regardless of where we'd end up, we will have a generation of flux, during which we will all be worse off. I'm in my 40s and I don't feel so altruistic towards future Britons to basically bug5er up the rest of my working life (my industry would be very badly hit).0 -
Some remainers on here seem to think that the world would end outside the EU institution. Why is it then that Euro scepticism is seemingly on the rise throughout swathes of the continent? Amazing if the EU is so benevolent.
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/eur ... nd-brexit/0 -
Because an increase in recession* always results in an increase of Far right parties too. People will do anything to blame their problems on someone else. Look at all the "I crashed my bike and no one is giving me a new one for free" threads in Road General
*I know, increase in recession is a bad phrase but I though it was more poeticWe're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
ddraver wrote:Because an increase in recession* always results in an increase of Far right parties too. People will do anything to blame their problems on someone else. Look at all the "I crashed my bike and no one is giving me a new one for free" threads in Road General
*I know, increase in recession is a bad phrase but I though it was more poetic
If I was German (they don't all drive Mercs and have a summer house in the countryside) and was affected by the massive influx of immigration. Then I think I would be disenfranchised, but it doesn't mean that I would go goosestepping down Unter den Linden.
The EU has changed thousands upon thousands of local communities across Europe without any checks and balances.Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.0 -
First Aspect wrote:
Please don't tell me that you are voting "out" on the basis that Boris will rush off to Brussels after the vote and get a better deal, and then we'll all live happily ever after?finchy wrote:Aw crap, even the telephone polls now put us down as leaving the EU.
So if we vote out, we'll stay in the EU for another 2 years. I wonder if in that time the government will offer us a second referendum... a chance to change our minds if it all goes as badly wrong as they're predicting. I can't see the EU refusing us re-entry if that did happen, but it would probably mean Cameron and Osborne hanging on to power.
No. I'm voting "in". I thought that might have been quite obvious from the fact that I wrote "Aw crap", in response to the latest opinion polls.0 -
Mr Goo wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Mr Goo wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:mrfpb wrote:mrfpb wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:
Stufstuff
other stuff
I seem to have been defending someone else's words as my own. Apologies to Coopster and Rick
I answered Goo in a very civilised manner but got a rant about fishing - would you mind answering
I'm not sure I 'ranted' about fishing industry Mr Surrey Commuter.
As you have an economics degree, which I am sure would have involved looking at contributors to a state's economy, I wanted an explanation and your views on why you think being an EU member is beneficial to the UK Fishing fleet.
Most plebs like me know that the UK Fishing industry has been decimated by the EU. Yet it is something that the Remain campaign do not want to engage in dialogue. They merely send out a multi millionaire pop star come self proclaimed saviour of the 3rd world to slag off the fishermen.
FYI. I work in construction industry. Basic rate tax payer. Secondary school education. Small house. Wife 2 children. 2 cats. Gold tench in a small pond. Therefore officially classified as Pleb in the eyes of the educated, self righteous and who love to talk down to those who dare to think about their communities and country rather than their portfolio.
OK have just found figures from 24th September 2015 and the UK fishing industry is worth £861,000,000. Whilst that is important to the 11,800 people working in that industry it really does not matter in the grand scheme of things. The UK economy is worth nearly £3,000,000,000,000, which I think is 0.03%.
You may hate "the city" but they are the ones who fund everything
I guess my analogy here would be. A house is made of bricks and mortar with a roof. The roof being this wonderful utopian financial and banking system which is the Remain campaigns' main reason for staying in. Take away the individual bricks, fishing industry, steel etc etc, then you don't have a house to put a roof on.
That makes more sense. Rather than pouring billions into propping up legacy industries it may be more productive to use the money to invest in new industries and/or re-skilling the workers.0 -
Mr Goo wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:mrfpb wrote:Veronese68 wrote:
No we shouldn't stop having the elections, but we should consider the consequences. We're not sacrificing democracy.Coopster the 1st wrote:And as mrfpb pointed out, we should not stop having democratic elections because they cause market jitters. Or is democracy a worthwhile sacrifice for market stability?
In balance to my original argument, the market jitters promoted a speedy decision making process in the case of the 2010 election. Compare this to countries such as Iraq or Ireland where it has taken several months to form a government following an inconclusive election. The jitters are due to the size of our economy, and are another reason to believe that negotiations will be less protracted than some commentators believe.
This isn't the Irish or Middle East peace process, there aren't centuries of hate to overcome. In the event of an Out vote it's in everyone's interest to be constructive in negotiating an exit.
No it isn't.
and we have no leverage
If the UK votes to leave next week. Do you honestly think that Germany, France et all are going to pull up the draw bridge? This is just damned right scaremongering. The likes of Mercedes, BMW and VW will be banging the door down to Herr Merkel's office to make sure that the trade agreements are sorted asap. Same will happen all over Europe. It's not just our exports that we should think about as the crux of the European issue. Europe in turn wants to export to the UK.
Queue the put downs.
Common sense must tell you that we will get a worse deal outside of the EU than in it.
Not every country has an export surplus with the UK, each and every one of them has the right of veto. The French will refuse to sign unless we promise not to sell Cornish Brie etc. The clock will be ticking and all the leverage will lie with the EU.0 -
Ballysmate wrote:Some remainers on here seem to think that the world would end outside the EU institution. Why is it then that Euro scepticism is seemingly on the rise throughout swathes of the continent? Amazing if the EU is so benevolent.
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/eur ... nd-brexit/
maybe a lack of intelligence is not just limited to the UK?.... eg - life has been tough for the last 8 years because of a global financial crisis and now there are civil wars on the southern Europe border resulting in a wave of refugees.... let's blame Brussels!!!0 -
The Economist have done a EU Referendum Special podcast for anyone interested. https://soundcloud.com/theeconomist/the ... um-special0
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Mr Goo wrote:ddraver wrote:Because an increase in recession* always results in an increase of Far right parties too. People will do anything to blame their problems on someone else. Look at all the "I crashed my bike and no one is giving me a new one for free" threads in Road General
*I know, increase in recession is a bad phrase but I though it was more poetic
If I was German (they don't all drive Mercs and have a summer house in the countryside) and was affected by the massive influx of immigration. Then I think I would be disenfranchised, but it doesn't mean that I would go goosestepping down Unter den Linden.
The EU has changed thousands upon thousands of local communities across Europe without any checks and balances.
i would like to know where this has happened?
The communities that i see that have been devastated in the UK, have been so because of collapse in world markets and Government policy, if we close down steel, coal and negotiate away fishing quota, then thats our doing not the EU's.
Remember it was EU that wanted tariffs on chinese steel and UK that held this up.
Didnt someone ask what all thse laws and regs are that have had such a detrimental effect on UK ? and got no replies!!!
the reality is the EU does not have the power you give it, just because a EU commissioner says xy or z, doesnt make it law!
even in the case of Germany and immigration, it was Merkel alone that allowed in 1m migrants, most other eu countries refused to take any (inc UK) and many closed their borders and the EU could not effect this.0 -
So, to use the same analogy you would replace old crumbling bricks with new stronger ones.Surrey Commuter wrote:Mr Goo wrote:I guess my analogy here would be. A house is made of bricks and mortar with a roof. The roof being this wonderful utopian financial and banking system which is the Remain campaigns' main reason for staying in. Take away the individual bricks, fishing industry, steel etc etc, then you don't have a house to put a roof on.
That makes more sense. Rather than pouring billions into propping up legacy industries it may be more productive to use the money to invest in new industries and/or re-skilling the workers.0
