BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

Bo Duke

If you read any one of a number of good biographies of Enoch Powell you'll see that everything that's being discussed nationally and in this thread was identified and brought to the public's attention between 1968 and 1971 - and people ignored it because they didn't understand or were unable to see the big picture.

To have a common currency you need to have a common economic policy, common laws and through that, common policies (foreign and defence).

Whether we like it or not, it's what we committed it (Ted Heath pledging that the UK would 'irreversibly economically linked' to the EU by the mid 1980's. Some folks still don't get it that our small bath tub navy is not designed to protect the UK and project our foreign policy, it is already a bit piece of a European navy. Why are we building 2 aircraft carriers but have no support vessels?

The EU needs to radically catch up with it's own success, they must reform Brussels, kick out the MP's who have no place there (ie 2nd and even 3rd rate people), reform the budget and raise the profile respect of the institution. Kick out the crass corruption. Euro MP debates should be weekly occurrences on tv, French and German euro MP's should come and debate in this country etc..

It doesn't really take a lot to see where and why its hated so much, in the same way it's not difficult to see how it could be reformed to be more user friendly.

Personally, I'd vote out because rather like FIFA that rules without a mandate or oversight, I don't believe it ' capable of reform.

mr_goo

I see that Boy George has swung into action yet again, on the news that an exit from EU is looking likely (for the time being). Now the country faces massive tax hikes.
Is there no end to the scaremongering being played out by the Remain camp?

verylonglegs

Probably not, in the same way there is no end to the fantasies promised by the leavers.

mr_goo

verylonglegs wrote:

Probably not, in the same way there is no end to the fantasies promised by the leavers.

So this is Boy George's threat to the UK population:

Basic rate income tax up from 20 to 22%
Higher rate income tax up from 40 to 43%
Inheritance tax up from 40 to 45%
National pension budget cut by £2bn
Home office, transport and local government budget cut by £5.8bn
Alcohol duty up by 5%
Petrol duty up by 5%
NHS budget cut by £2.5bn
Defence budget cut by £1.2bn
Education budget cut by £1.15bn

All designed to scare the 5h*t out of those who dare to vote Leave. 8l00dy disgusting tactics, that have been the Remain campaigns' message from day one.
I would like to see a public enquiry after the vote (whichever way it goes). To threaten the population like this is out of order.

mamba80

Rolls Royce jumping in to! who ever next ?

as for having ago at scare mongering tactics by the 'leaves... maybe they are right? and if the leaves are now aiming for a EU trade deal by 2020, then its fairly obvious that is going to bring about uncertainty and in the world we live in, markets dont like that and leads to less investment, less tax take, less spending.

Uk economy has been slowing since start of year, falls in currency and FTSE, so already we ve seen values in our pensions fall and for millions of us, our hols will cost more, irony is this unfolding eco disaster is solely because of a Tory policy.... and we had 10,000 pages about saving our country from Labour :roll:

ddraver

"The "X" side is using disgraceful scare tactics" has gone on my list of 'Signs the person speaking has no idea what they re talking about' list...

mr_goo

mamba80 wrote:

Rolls Royce jumping in to! who ever next ?

as for having ago at scare mongering tactics by the 'leaves... maybe they are right? and if the leaves are now aiming for a EU trade deal by 2020, then its fairly obvious that is going to bring about uncertainty and in the world we live in, markets dont like that and leads to less investment, less tax take, less spending.

Uk economy has been slowing since start of year, falls in currency and FTSE, so already we ve seen values in our pensions fall and for millions of us, our hols will cost more, irony is this unfolding eco disaster is solely because of a Tory policy.... and we had 10,000 pages about saving our country from Labour :roll:

RR wading in, is a smoke screen. They have business lined up on aero engines which goes off into the far future. They are involved with the development of the next generation long range twin jets.

Channel hopping the other night and happened to watch RT for 10 mins. They were discussing the global finances and saying that all the indications and markers are in place for another big global recession and banking crash. Some of the forumites on here are city boys. Any truth in that?

rick_chasey

Mr Goo wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

Rolls Royce jumping in to! who ever next ?

as for having ago at scare mongering tactics by the 'leaves... maybe they are right? and if the leaves are now aiming for a EU trade deal by 2020, then its fairly obvious that is going to bring about uncertainty and in the world we live in, markets dont like that and leads to less investment, less tax take, less spending.

Uk economy has been slowing since start of year, falls in currency and FTSE, so already we ve seen values in our pensions fall and for millions of us, our hols will cost more, irony is this unfolding eco disaster is solely because of a Tory policy.... and we had 10,000 pages about saving our country from Labour :roll:

RR wading in, is a smoke screen. They have business lined up on aero engines which goes off into the far future. They are involved with the development of the next generation long range twin jets.

Channel hopping the other night and happened to watch RT for 10 mins. They were discussing the global finances and saying that all the indications and markers are in place for another big global recession and banking crash. Some of the forumites on here are city boys. Any truth in that?

City types are predicting a UK recession in the event of a Brexit.

Given most of us have lived through one, you'd think the public would want to avoid inflicting it on themselves.

I don't think anyone who has any sense of what they're talking about thinks there will be another banking crash. Banks have too much equity and not enough leverage for that to happen.

rick_chasey

Then there is fairly unanimous predictions of a serious impact on Financial services, which accounts for 10% of GDP...

http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/brexit-pot ... ial-sector

mamba80

Mr Goo wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

Rolls Royce jumping in to! who ever next ?

as for having ago at scare mongering tactics by the 'leaves... maybe they are right? and if the leaves are now aiming for a EU trade deal by 2020, then its fairly obvious that is going to bring about uncertainty and in the world we live in, markets dont like that and leads to less investment, less tax take, less spending.

Uk economy has been slowing since start of year, falls in currency and FTSE, so already we ve seen values in our pensions fall and for millions of us, our hols will cost more, irony is this unfolding eco disaster is solely because of a Tory policy.... and we had 10,000 pages about saving our country from Labour :roll:

RR wading in, is a smoke screen. They have business lined up on aero engines which goes off into the far future. They are involved with the development of the next generation long range twin jets.

Channel hopping the other night and happened to watch RT for 10 mins. They were discussing the global finances and saying that all the indications and markers are in place for another big global recession and banking crash. Some of the forumites on here are city boys. Any truth in that?

as i asked Coopster, where is outs Plan B ? if even a fraction of these so called scare stories are true, then this country will need one and it can ever be "we ll re join EU"

as for RR, how is it a smoke screen? they ve said they ll look again at their investment plans post out vote, that it ll hand USA rivals a competitive advantage and now the CBI is wading in, OUTs argument is "well they would say that, they are voice of Brussels" well, thats convinced me!
i m certain the EU, freed of any trade obligations, will be offering RR and anyone else, huge incentives to move to the mainland.

we should stay and have our say in the future of what will prove to be a fast changing EU.

surrey_commuter

PBlakeney wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

What will they think of next!!!
A European Energy Union will ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy. Wiser energy use while fighting climate change is both a spur for new jobs and growth and an investment in Europe's future.

Common currency, common laws, common parliament, common energy, common army, common investment........
See where this is heading?

Am I the only person who can see the benefits of a European Energy Union

mr_goo

Rick Chasey wrote:

Then there is fairly unanimous predictions of a serious impact on Financial services, which accounts for 10% of GDP...

http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/brexit-pot ... ial-sector

Yet again it is those in the financial sector that are making the threats and doom laden forecasts.
Have you bothered to look at the impact of the EU has on people not in London?
My wife works in our local health centre. The demographic of new registrations all come from Romania and Bulgaria, none of whom have to prove anymore that they are gainfully employed etc, etc. The average waiting time to see a GP is now about 2+ weeks. There is no continuity of care, so you no longer have a family GP, as in the past.
The added pressure of the mass influx from the EU member states and those from outside is putting a strain on local services and if a brake is not put on immigration then there is bound to be a collapse. You cannot keep throwing money at it and hope the problems go away.
I am not saying stop immigration full stop, but slow it right down. Get public services into a position whereby they can cope efficiently with the current level of population. Surely that is just common sense?

Yet all the Remain are concerned about is 'The City'. Just about says it all about the mindset.

mr_goo

Surrey Commuter wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

What will they think of next!!!
A European Energy Union will ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy. Wiser energy use while fighting climate change is both a spur for new jobs and growth and an investment in Europe's future.

Common currency, common laws, common parliament, common energy, common army, common investment........
See where this is heading?

Am I the only person who can see the benefits of a European Energy Union

Yes. Because ultimately it will be run by the French and German state owned power providers.

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Financial markets are more about uncertainty so the irresponsible thing was calling the referendum. What has been said since is irrelevant.

Produce a reputable source to back up your claim that a post Brexit currency crisis will result in greater foreign direct investment.

Again show me a reputable source to explain why you think it will be no worse than a General Election?

The Bank of Japan could say one of many things that would crash stock markets world wide but don't as they promote trust and confidence in the world wide economy. To say what the BoE and Chancellor have said is irrelevant is idiotic. They should be promoting independence and producing positive messages to calm the markets for both scenarios. They did not talk down the actions they were taking in the banking crisis!

I have no problem with the IFS, OECD, etc making their predictions but those at the financial controls of our economy should be neutral and acting responsibly in the countries interest not talking down one side for political gain.

The PWC report said that at 2030 a remain vote will mean the economy will have grown by 41% but under a brexit vote we will have grown by 39%. I think that comes within the influence of a general election when you are looking that far out.

I will let the personal insult slide or we will both end up getting banned.

Nothing they say will reverse market sentiment - check out our departure from the ERM or the recent Swiss franc issues.

Your PWC report is supporting one of our previous debates that in 14 years time the UK economy will only be 2% smaller post Brexit than if we had stayed in. That is of course assuming a bounce back after after the initial shock.

coopster_the_1st

Rick Chasey wrote:

City types are predicting a UK recession in the event of a Brexit.

And as I'm reading your post I'm listening to David Buik on Radio 5 saying how excited he will be on 24th June if he wakes up to a Leave vote.

mr_goo

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Financial markets are more about uncertainty so the irresponsible thing was calling the referendum. What has been said since is irrelevant.

Produce a reputable source to back up your claim that a post Brexit currency crisis will result in greater foreign direct investment.

Again show me a reputable source to explain why you think it will be no worse than a General Election?

The Bank of Japan could say one of many things that would crash stock markets world wide but don't as they promote trust and confidence in the world wide economy. To say what the BoE and Chancellor have said is irrelevant is idiotic. They should be promoting independence and producing positive messages to calm the markets for both scenarios. They did not talk down the actions they were taking in the banking crisis!

I have no problem with the IFS, OECD, etc making their predictions but those at the financial controls of our economy should be neutral and acting responsibly in the countries interest not talking down one side for political gain.

The PWC report said that at 2030 a remain vote will mean the economy will have grown by 41% but under a brexit vote we will have grown by 39%. I think that comes within the influence of a general election when you are looking that far out.

I will let the personal insult slide or we will both end up getting banned.

Nothing they say will reverse market sentiment - check out our departure from the ERM or the recent Swiss franc issues.

Your PWC report is supporting one of our previous debates that in 14 years time the UK economy will only be 2% smaller post Brexit than if we had stayed in. That is of course assuming a bounce back after after the initial shock.

Mr Surrey Commuter I get the impression that you work in 'the city'. One would surely have to posses a modicum of intelligence for this, although I couldn't possibly comment.
I OBSERVE that nearly all of your posts are influenced by finance and the world which you and yours inhabit and benefit from. It would be very refreshing to hear your thoughts on local health services, local schools, the local jobs market and how membership of the EU has benefited or not. When I mean 'local', I mean out in the rough old provinces, not a dormitory of London.

kingstongraham

On the subject of personalities, I only just realised that the chief executive of the official Vote Leave campaign is Matthew Elliott, founder of the Taxpayers' Alliance.

surrey_commuter

Mr Goo wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Financial markets are more about uncertainty so the irresponsible thing was calling the referendum. What has been said since is irrelevant.

Produce a reputable source to back up your claim that a post Brexit currency crisis will result in greater foreign direct investment.

Again show me a reputable source to explain why you think it will be no worse than a General Election?

The Bank of Japan could say one of many things that would crash stock markets world wide but don't as they promote trust and confidence in the world wide economy. To say what the BoE and Chancellor have said is irrelevant is idiotic. They should be promoting independence and producing positive messages to calm the markets for both scenarios. They did not talk down the actions they were taking in the banking crisis!

I have no problem with the IFS, OECD, etc making their predictions but those at the financial controls of our economy should be neutral and acting responsibly in the countries interest not talking down one side for political gain.

The PWC report said that at 2030 a remain vote will mean the economy will have grown by 41% but under a brexit vote we will have grown by 39%. I think that comes within the influence of a general election when you are looking that far out.

I will let the personal insult slide or we will both end up getting banned.

Nothing they say will reverse market sentiment - check out our departure from the ERM or the recent Swiss franc issues.

Your PWC report is supporting one of our previous debates that in 14 years time the UK economy will only be 2% smaller post Brexit than if we had stayed in. That is of course assuming a bounce back after after the initial shock.

Mr Surrey Commuter I get the impression that you work in 'the city'. One would surely have to posses a modicum of intelligence for this, although I couldn't possibly comment.
I OBSERVE that nearly all of your posts are influenced by finance and the world which you and yours inhabit and benefit from. It would be very refreshing to hear your thoughts on local health services, local schools, the local jobs market and how membership of the EU has benefited or not. When I mean 'local', I mean out in the rough old provinces, not a dormitory of London.

I will take your post as a quest for knowledge and not merely provocative. I will be open and would be interested to hear your background.

Nope I don't work in "the City" but I do have a degree in economics and work totally unrelated work with economists/analysts so get first hand insight into their forecasts and thinking. I am also a pension fund trustee so get to sit in a room with financial professionals who despair at the thought of brexit.

If you look at it through the above prism my posts are about the economy (not finance). You need economic prosperity to fund the NHS, education and provide jobs. In most peoples opinion membership of the EU has benefited the UK economy and that leaving will be bad for it. Therefore you will see a worsening of public services and less jobs.

surrey_commuter

Mr Goo wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

What will they think of next!!!
A European Energy Union will ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy. Wiser energy use while fighting climate change is both a spur for new jobs and growth and an investment in Europe's future.

Common currency, common laws, common parliament, common energy, common army, common investment........
See where this is heading?

Am I the only person who can see the benefits of a European Energy Union

Yes. Because ultimately it will be run by the French and German state owned power providers.

So what? we have proven to be incapable of running our own energy market so why not let somebody else have a go. Are you really unaware of the impending energy crisis? https://www.imeche.org/news/news-articl ... 55-by-2025

TheBigBean

Does anyone else think that the polls are unlikely to be surveying the expats and therefore there is a Brexit bias?

veronese68

Surrey Commuter wrote:

You need economic prosperity to fund the NHS, education and provide jobs. In most peoples opinion membership of the EU has benefited the UK economy and that leaving will be bad for it. Therefore you will see a worsening of public services and less jobs.

So most financial experts seem to be in agreement that short term the economy will take a downturn if we leave, nobody really knows what will happen long term. If the economy takes a downturn services will be cut further and they are already struggling due to previous cuts. This will be bad for the whole country.

coopster_the_1st

TheBigBean wrote:

Does anyone else think that the polls are unlikely to be surveying the expats and therefore there is a Brexit bias?

No, this is all included in their calculations. They have models that will have what percentage of expats will vote remain.

It not just a simple case of phoning 1000 people and tallying up the numbers.

e.g. If they call a home phone during the working day they are not going to get representation of what people out at work think

pblakeney

Mr Goo wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

What will they think of next!!!
A European Energy Union will ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy. Wiser energy use while fighting climate change is both a spur for new jobs and growth and an investment in Europe's future.

Common currency, common laws, common parliament, common energy, common army, common investment........
See where this is heading?

Am I the only person who can see the benefits of a European Energy Union

Yes. Because ultimately it will be run by the French and German state owned power providers.

Well, I have just switched my supplier to EDF at a large saving, so in isolation, yes.
I was looking at the bigger picture, the future of the EU and the direction it is heading in.

Jez mon

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

What will they think of next!!!
A European Energy Union will ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy. Wiser energy use while fighting climate change is both a spur for new jobs and growth and an investment in Europe's future.

Common currency, common laws, common parliament, common energy, common army, common investment........
See where this is heading?

Am I the only person who can see the benefits of a European Energy Union

Yes. Because ultimately it will be run by the French and German state owned power providers.

So what? we have proven to be incapable of running our own energy market so why not let somebody else have a go. Are you really unaware of the impending energy crisis? https://www.imeche.org/news/news-articl ... 55-by-2025

I do find this POV slightly problematic though... because fundamentally, it is surely pretty undemocratic.

The problem I'm having atm, is for me, a European trading block is a good thing...But in order to actually get successful free trade that's mutually beneficial, you surely need pretty well balanced economies(although I'm not an economist). In order to get well balanced economies you need similar financial policies, which brings closer political union.

Then in order to get fair free trade, you need similar business laws in the trading block. Free isn't going to be mutually beneficial if one country is allowed to utilize slave labour and have no controls on environmental pollution. So then you need similar employment and environmental controls...i.e. closer political union.

So fundamentally, we do have to have reasonably close political union. On balance I don't see this as a particular big issue. However, the general population and the media do not pay enough attention to what goes on within the EU, I think we need to get our heads around the fact that we are members of the EU and have influence, rather than subjects of it.

mrfpb

Anyone else dsicovered this site:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-poll ... l-results/

It's run by the guy that does the BBC's predictions on election nights.

TheBigBean

Coopster the 1st wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Does anyone else think that the polls are unlikely to be surveying the expats and therefore there is a Brexit bias?

No, this is all included in their calculations. They have models that will have what percentage of expats will vote remain.

It not just a simple case of phoning 1000 people and tallying up the numbers.

e.g. If they call a home phone during the working day they are not going to get representation of what people out at work think

You have a lot more faith than me in polls. I was under the impression that they did just phone 1000 people. Hopefully, they're more advanced as you say.

mrfpb

My wife (a staistician by background) explained one model of polling that followed the 1992 election with the "spiral of silence" that led to an unpredicted Tory win - with the biggest popular vote ever.
People were handed a card with two questions and asked to answer one of them to the canvaser, but not say which one they were answering:

"Will you vote conservative at the next election"

"Were you born in December"

The results were then adjusted to the extract the known proportion of the population that were born in December to extract the number of people intending to vote Conservative.

Not sure if this type of model still persists, but it is an example of the hoops pollsters go through to ensure they are getting "unbiased" data - though "less biased" is more likely.

If you look at the What UK Thinks link I posted earlier yo'll find a lot of info on methodology of polls, including the phone v. online discussion.

darkhairedlord

mrfpb wrote:

Anyone else dsicovered this site:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-poll ... l-results/

It's run by the guy that does the BBC's predictions on election nights.

better off with this site:http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

darkhairedlord

mrfpb wrote:

My wife (a staistician by background) explained one model of polling that followed the 1992 election with the "spiral of silence" that led to an unpredicted Tory win - with the biggest popular vote ever.
People were handed a card with two questions and asked to answer one of them to the canvaser, but not say which one they were answering:

"Will you vote conservative at the next election"

"Were you born in December"

The results were then adjusted to the extract the known proportion of the population that were born in December to extract the number of people intending to vote Conservative.

Not sure if this type of model still persists, but it is an example of the hoops pollsters go through to ensure they are getting "unbiased" data - though "less biased" is more likely.

If you look at the What UK Thinks link I posted earlier yo'll find a lot of info on methodology of polls, including the phone v. online discussion.

All that intellectual energy going into this? what a waste of human endeavour.

bobmcstuff

Mr Goo wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

What will they think of next!!!
A European Energy Union will ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy. Wiser energy use while fighting climate change is both a spur for new jobs and growth and an investment in Europe's future.

Common currency, common laws, common parliament, common energy, common army, common investment........
See where this is heading?

Am I the only person who can see the benefits of a European Energy Union

Yes. Because ultimately it will be run by the French and German state owned power providers.

Thing is we need it (due to decades of underinvestment by our own government) - this winter we're going to need imports just to keep the lights on. And it's getting worse year on year.

e.g., http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/e ... inter.html