BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

finchy wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

finchy wrote:

It's got to happen at some point. The world's top economists wouldn't be able to put an exact date on when it will happen, so I'm not going to start making specific predictions.

FFS finchy, the economy goes in cycles. You know as well as I do that if you say something like that you will be right eventually.

Yes, but the point I am making is that if it happens soon, governments might find themselves unable to deal with it effectively.

Maybe.

Stop worrying so much. We've come though every other crisis in history and here we are with some people fretting about something that may or may not happen to a degree we dont yet know...

As you said the economy goes in cycles and history suggests we are closer to the next downturn than we are the last. As Finchy says we are very possibly out of ammo. I will add that the deficit is still huge and the bond markets are already moving against us. And we have voluntarily applied an accelerator.

Crisis is melodramatic but our ability to ameliorate a downturn is less than it was previously.

mamba80

Ballysmate wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Which is exactly why I'm calling people names. Not difficult to understand.

The response for 10 year olds perhaps.

The response of someone who thinks dullards like you are twats.

Dullard and tw@t eh? Very Oscar Wilde.
I have to say Joel that having endured your diatribe for the last God knows how many pages, it has become evident to this tw@t that when people (even people who voted the same way as you) raise pertinent points that you are apparently at a loss to comprehend, never mind answer, your default position is to start calling people names.
You then have the neck to call anyone who doesn't 100% share your view, stupid. That appears to be the level of your capacity to engage in debate.
Never mind, please keep logging on, reading other peoples views and watching how grown ups have constructive discussions and you never know, one day you will be able to join in.

If your seeing the business you ve worked extremely hard on, go up in smoke because of Brexit, then maybe your mot going to be particularly understanding of anyone who now appears to support Brexit......

Are you sure May was campaigning for IN ? because i dont recall her being the poster girl for that view. she was sitting on the fence, able to jump down on either side, dependant on who won.

lets face it, she also campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow too...... like DC, weak and wishy washy, very disappointed in her first 100 days.

ballysmate

mamba80 wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Which is exactly why I'm calling people names. Not difficult to understand.

The response for 10 year olds perhaps.

The response of someone who thinks dullards like you are twats.

Dullard and tw@t eh? Very Oscar Wilde.
I have to say Joel that having endured your diatribe for the last God knows how many pages, it has become evident to this tw@t that when people (even people who voted the same way as you) raise pertinent points that you are apparently at a loss to comprehend, never mind answer, your default position is to start calling people names.
You then have the neck to call anyone who doesn't 100% share your view, stupid. That appears to be the level of your capacity to engage in debate.
Never mind, please keep logging on, reading other peoples views and watching how grown ups have constructive discussions and you never know, one day you will be able to join in.

If your seeing the business you ve worked extremely hard on, go up in smoke because of Brexit, then maybe your mot going to be particularly understanding of anyone who now appears to support Brexit......

Are you sure May was campaigning for IN ? because i dont recall her being the poster girl for that view. she was sitting on the fence, able to jump down on either side, dependant on who won.

lets face it, she also campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow too...... like DC, weak and wishy washy, very disappointed in her first 100 days.

First off, I am sorry for anyone whose business takes a downturn, for whatever reason. If you care to go back a few pages in this thread, I congratulated Joelsim on his success and the fact that he was thinking of taking someone on as business was so good. But because he says his business is now suffering, it doesn't give him the right to lash out at everyone, regardless of blame does it?

Whilst on the subject, if he still logs on, he may be interested in this.

The proportion of British travellers taking a beach holiday fell by 24 per cent in the past year, according to research by Abta, the travel association. Yet the number of people going on holiday increased by 12 per cent.

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/uk- ... 55181.html

Perhaps people are taking their cats with them eh?

As regards TM campaigning for IN. the papers are full of column inches about her opinion before Brexit vote. Could she have been more vocal? Yes. Did the remain campaign deliberately focus the campaign on a just a number of individuals? No idea.

Weak leadership? You could be right. She could have triggered A50 on the afternoon she became PM to show that she was in charge and to show Mamba her leadership credentials. But I have a feeling Mamba wouldn't have approved that demonstration of strong leadership either.

rick_chasey

So a someknow I know turns out knows May quite well.

Wasn't impressed with her leadership credentials.

"Way too into the weeds. Detail & control freak. Can't make big decisions easily, which is basically the job" in his eyes.

Though he's a big fan of her general values, but then he's a god botherer so.

BikeRadarAdmin

Tone down the swearing please all. Completely unnecessary.

Have messaged parties involved.

RideOnTime

Stevo 666 wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Which is exactly why I'm calling people names. Not difficult to understand.

The response for 10 year olds perhaps.

The response of someone who thinks dullards like you are twats.

Dullard and tw@t eh? Very Oscar Wilde.
I have to say Joel that having endured your diatribe for the last God knows how many pages, it has become evident to this tw@t that when people (even people who voted the same way as you) raise pertinent points that you are apparently at a loss to comprehend, never mind answer, your default position is to start calling people names.
You then have the neck to call anyone who doesn't 100% share your view, stupid. That appears to be the level of your capacity to engage in debate.
Never mind, please keep logging on, reading other peoples views and watching how grown ups have constructive discussions and you never know, one day you will be able to join in.

Reminds me of this for some reason?

Where's she been hiding?

kingstongraham

In The Times today:

Strange how politicians who think that Britain can unpick 40-odd years of European integration and negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world in just two years are doubtful about whether we can lay down some tarmac by the M4 in a decade.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

And within those forecasts there are wide ranges.

How will worrying help?

And the general thrust of those forecasts was what? Positive or negative (even with a wide range of forecasts, you can get a general idea, surely?)

If you want to call gloomy forecasts by economists just "worrying", then let's just listen to the nice upbeat forecasts. That'll stop all the problems.

Sorry, just a bit of worrying... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 80081.html

Now to find those nice cheerful forecasts...

You mean like the ones that say we are still growing and still forecast to grow in future?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/25/brexit-vote-will-not-dent-economy-this-year-as-uk-growth-forecas/
http://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-outlook.html

...at rates that are comparable to our major EU trading partners.

Now stop being so defeatist.

orraloon

RideOnTime wrote:

Where's she been hiding?

Genderist! Who says it's a she?

joelsim

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... are_btn_tw

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... out-brexit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... kes-market

coopster_the_1st

Joelsim wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/26/hammond-80bn-black-hole-economic-worsens-brexit-treasury?CMP=share_btn_tw

And you can provide evidence that this would not have happened if we had voted to remain. And I mean evidence, not predictions or forecasts. I recall S&P saying the UK would lose it AAA rating the day after we voted for Brexit. Go and check where we are today with this prediction!

Joelsim wrote:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/morgan-stanley-ceo-james-gorman-sees-nothing-good-about-brexit

You should listen to the whole interview. It is a huge negative vote for European capitals as financial centres. Says "London is still the best place because all the infrastructure, people, legal, etc are in place, employees like living there". "No large scale movement out of the UK, only be at the margins and this is likely to be to New York and not to Europe."

Joelsim wrote:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/london-house-prices-forecast-to-plunge-as-brexit-chokes-market

You really need to do more reading on subjects that you want to blame Brexit on. This has been the case since at least 2015 for London's high end property. In fact, since Brexit things should be looking up for foreign investment into UK property as it is now 20% cheaper due to currency fluctuations.

Note to all media editors. If I want to get my article published I just have to reference 'it's the fault of Brexit' :roll:

Ben6899

Coopster's gonna open his own shipbuilding yard on Teesside, breathe new energy into the area.

CONTROL HIS DESTINY.

briantrumpet

Ben6899 wrote:

Coopster's gonna open his own shipbuilding yard on Teesside, breathe new energy into the area.

CONTROL HIS DESTINY.

Alternatively, he could take over Vauxhall's business. So many opportunities.

wallace_and_gromit

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/26/hammond-80bn-black-hole-economic-worsens-brexit-treasury?CMP=share_btn_tw

And you can provide evidence that this would not have happened if we had voted to remain.

You know the world has gone mad when the Guardian uses a set of Osborne's projections for the deficit as it's baseline position. The Guardian has been crowing for years about how Ozzy always misses his deficit targets.

Add £10b to each year of Ozzy's predictions and you'll have a more realistic baseline against which to compare.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet wrote:

Ben6899 wrote:

Coopster's gonna open his own shipbuilding yard on Teesside, breathe new energy into the area.

CONTROL HIS DESTINY.

Alternatively, he could take over Vauxhall's business. So many opportunities.

As a US group, GM is probably reeling from losses on the steep depreciation of the Euro against the US dollar in late 2014/early 2015:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=5Y

The Euro/US $ exchange rate went from nearly 1.40 to below 1.10 in approx 6 months and has stayed there. That is a bigger % drop than sterling vs Euro since the referendum.

These darn weak currencies eh?

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

These darn weak currencies eh?

Well yeah. After my honeymoon I'll have considerably less spending money to consume goods over here in the UK 'cos I'll have blown it all in Italy.

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Ben6899 wrote:

Coopster's gonna open his own shipbuilding yard on Teesside, breathe new energy into the area.

CONTROL HIS DESTINY.

Alternatively, he could take over Vauxhall's business. So many opportunities.

As a US group, GM is probably reeling from losses on the steep depreciation of the Euro against the US dollar in late 2014/early 2015:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=5Y

The Euro/US $ exchange rate went from nearly 1.40 to below 1.10 in approx 6 months and has stayed there. That is a bigger % drop than sterling vs Euro since the referendum.

These darn weak currencies eh?

Fascinating that car manufacturing is so emotive. Even if they shut up shop it is less than 5,000 jobs. Barclays will have done a multiple of that' without a murmur.

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/26/hammond-80bn-black-hole-economic-worsens-brexit-treasury?CMP=share_btn_tw

And you can provide evidence that this would not have happened if we had voted to remain. And I mean evidence, not predictions or forecasts. I recall S&P saying the UK would lose it AAA rating the day after we voted for Brexit. Go and check where we are today with this prediction!

so it was the 27th not the 25th. The Brexit leadership forecast short-term pain

Joelsim wrote:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/morgan-stanley-ceo-james-gorman-sees-nothing-good-about-brexit

You should listen to the whole interview. It is a huge negative vote for European capitals as financial centres. Says "London is still the best place because all the infrastructure, people, legal, etc are in place, employees like living there". "No large scale movement out of the UK, only be at the margins and this is likely to be to New York and not to Europe."

there was an article in the economist about how the bankers need to agree the song they are singing. Saying NYC is the beneficiary focuses the mind in London and Brussels. A few tens of thousands of jobs will knock a few billion more into the deficit

Joelsim wrote:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/london-house-prices-forecast-to-plunge-as-brexit-chokes-market

You really need to do more reading on subjects that you want to blame Brexit on. This has been the case since at least 2015 for London's high end property. In fact, since Brexit things should be looking up for foreign investment into UK property as it is now 20% cheaper due to currency fluctuations.

i find myself agreeing with Coopster on this. Brexit will not have helped the market lower down but the stamp duty rates will have done more harm

Note to all media editors. If I want to get my article published I just have to reference 'it's the fault of Brexit' :roll:

bramstoker

Ballysmate wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

finchy wrote:

There is nothing that rules us out of the single market. Polls are showing that most people want to prioritise SM membership over immigration. The government could accept that, rather than base their policy on avoiding Tory voters switching to UKIP.

Anyway, as I said, an EU which is divided on a trade deal with the UK is not good news for us. Why do you think so many countries want a deal with the EU?

Unfortunately, no matter what people say it has no influence on whether we get a trade deal or not. We accept free movement or we don't. Or we pay stupid money to 'protect' our prime revenue earners, far more than we pay now and I'm not even sure that's possible.

And while we do this we have a country where morons can promote their racist views and get away with it as if it is right.

On another note, my own personal business has been hit hard by Brexit. A business that was growing hugely has suddenly come to a stop. I rely on people going away, and to be honest it's way poorer this half-term than I would've expected. probably 50% down on estimation. Something to do with a weak pound.

With regard to CETA, do you know why it's been stalled? Because it prioritised multinationals over local businesses.

Here's me thinking your despair following sterling's devaluation was altruistic.

No one is altuistic in this and this is where the remain camp got it wrong, more people think they will be better off out for what ever reason. But don't kid yourself if you think anyones done this for altruistic reasons.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

These darn weak currencies eh?

Well yeah. After my honeymoon I'll have considerably less spending money to consume goods over here in the UK 'cos I'll have blown it all in Italy.

Boo hoo. I went skiing in France in 2009 and the exchange rate was even lower than it is now. The beer cost me a fortune. A couple of years ago it was a lot cheaper. That's life.

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Ben6899 wrote:

Coopster's gonna open his own shipbuilding yard on Teesside, breathe new energy into the area.

CONTROL HIS DESTINY.

Alternatively, he could take over Vauxhall's business. So many opportunities.

As a US group, GM is probably reeling from losses on the steep depreciation of the Euro against the US dollar in late 2014/early 2015:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=5Y

The Euro/US $ exchange rate went from nearly 1.40 to below 1.10 in approx 6 months and has stayed there. That is a bigger % drop than sterling vs Euro since the referendum.

These darn weak currencies eh?

Fascinating that car manufacturing is so emotive. Even if they shut up shop it is less than 5,000 jobs. Barclays will have done a multiple of that' without a murmur.

Banking seems quite emotive now they are suddenly our saviours

One High Street bank is in the process of cut to 10 times as many jobs in the UK (planned and started before the referendum before anyone shouts 'Fujitsu!' ) than it estimates it might have to move to the EU depending on the outcome.

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

These darn weak currencies eh?

Well yeah. After my honeymoon I'll have considerably less spending money to consume goods over here in the UK 'cos I'll have blown it all in Italy.

Boo hoo. I went skiing in France in 2009 and the exchange rate was even lower than it is now. The beer cost me a fortune. A couple of years ago it was a lot cheaper. That's life.

You don't really understand the point do you? :roll:

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

These darn weak currencies eh?

Well yeah. After my honeymoon I'll have considerably less spending money to consume goods over here in the UK 'cos I'll have blown it all in Italy.

Boo hoo. I went skiing in France in 2009 and the exchange rate was even lower than it is now. The beer cost me a fortune. A couple of years ago it was a lot cheaper. That's life.

You don't really understand the point do you? :roll:

I refrained from advising you to spend wisely on your honeymoon but the point is that in many cases such as holidays we have a choice about where to go and how much to spend. You're kind of locked in here but most are not, so yours is a bad example. The natural impact of this is to dampen down consumption of what has become more expensive.

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

The natural impact of this is to dampen down consumption of what has become more expensive.

And there in a nutshell, goes the economy.

rick_chasey

Wouldn't quite go as far as to say it'll sink it, but it's not ideal for consumption generally, which has held up post Brexit.

(though you'd kinda expect that, if you think about it)

Stevo_666

The forecasts I posted above still show growth, albeit reduced. Its reasonable to assume that they have factored in the exchange rate impacts.

pinno

Consumption of UK goods by UK citizens has been traditionally low uptake. A devalued pound is great for the export market.

Are there any figures on UK exports on the back of the devalued pound?

Stevo_666

Pinno wrote:

Consumption of UK goods by UK citizens has been traditionally low uptake. A devalued pound is great for the export market.

Are there any figures on UK exports on the back of the devalued pound?

There is a bit of a lag in producing the figures so the impact of the most recent drop won't be visible yet. I posted a link a while back that showed positive signs:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37748667

However the biggest drag on our exports appears to be the poor economic conditions in the EU which is dampening demand: quelle surprise.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28784701

mamba80

Got to love this "positive" article from a right wing think tank, at first glance conclusive evidence that the EU will need to give us a good deal after Brexit..... until you read the last paragraph.......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -after-br/

Stevo_666

mamba80 wrote:

Got to love this "positive" article from a right wing think tank, at first glance conclusive evidence that the EU will need to give us a good deal after Brexit..... until you read the last paragraph.......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -after-br/

Depends whether the EU is indeed thinking 'as one' or whether they are looking at it as individual countries. But the fact remains - tariffs on EU goods coming into the UK will exceed tariffs on UK goods going to the EU.

Useful article, thanks mamba