BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

I guess I'll post this blog post from an economist again:
https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2020/02/immigrants-as-scapegoats.html

In reality, their estimate implies only a tiny actual effect on the earnings of the low-skilled. As Jonathan says, it suggests that:

the impact of migration on the wages of the UK-born in this sector since 2004 has been about 1 per cent, over a period of 8 years. With average wages in this sector of about £8 an hour, that amounts to a reduction in annual pay rises of about a penny an hour.

This tallies with the general consensus, that migration has little impact on the wages of natives. A survey by the Migration Advisory Committee concluded (pdf):

Migrants have no or little impact on the overall employment and unemployment outcomes of the UK-born workforce…Migration is not a major determinate of the wages of UK-born workers. We found some evidence suggesting that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the magnitude of the impacts are generally small.

I only got as far as the first few paragraphs (last time you linked to it, the link was broken) and looks like they have misinterpreted the Bank of England's report, so I read no further. The impact of 10% immigration on a specific sector results in a reduction in wages of 2%

Not sure you necessarily need to write off the rest of the studies he links to (including the one I quoted).

Your quote is based on a misinterpretation, so I think I do.

It's fairly simple really. Skilled workers earn more. Unskilled workers earn less. Overall, on average, salaries are higher, but the unskilled are disgruntled and therefore voted for Brexit whilst the skilled workers don't know what the problem is because average salaries are up.

rick_chasey

Would you prefer this, from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research?

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages

I think the point I'm making in case it isn't clear, is that the problem in the UK for low earners, and it is a problem, is not really anything to do with immigration.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

Would you prefer this, from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research?

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages

I think the point I'm making in case it isn't clear, is that the problem in the UK for low earners, and it is a problem, is not really anything to do with immigration.

Apart from the fact it is an article about an article in the Telegraph which is about a report that I have posted several times in this thread, it broadly says what I was saying. This shouldn't be surprising because I read the actual report in the first place.

The only aspect where I think my opinion differs was that I interpreted sector to be smaller than all unskilled/semi-skilled workers in the UK e.g. working in a coffee shop in London could be considered a sector. I would be surprised if that sector only has 7% migration.

Yes, there are bigger issues out there, but it is a legitimate issue.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

It's not about accepting it or not, though to suggest I haven't is rather bizarre; where have I said I don't accept it's happening?

I just wonder what made you change your tune.

All I am doing is adapting to the changing reality of the situation - it's mentioned in my post above. We have left, there is no possibility of staying in the single market so we deal with the possibilities. I have always had big reservations about the EU and have said so on here a few times; this is simply applying these to the current position.

I could ask the same of you - except the question is why you haven't changed despite the changing circumstances?

Stevo_666

morstar said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

No point wishing for something that won't happen folks - which is what a lot of you are still doing. The current position we find ourselves in given the EU's current position doesn't leave too many options for either side. Ultimately there may need to be a decision on whether it is more valuable long term to be free of EU regs and bureaucracy (which they want in place to keep us 'in line'), or a Canada style deal with major EU strings attached. I think you can make an case for either but it's not a no brainer. Although if the EU are going to be difficult then our hand may be forced.

Is that OK, or are you still holding on to the pitchforks and burning torches?

Many months ago I praised the fact you were the only one posting consistent, coherent and positive arguments for Brexit despite your remain vote.
These days you’re just spouting b@llox.

Those points remain - they have already been debated.

The points above are dealing with the specific situation we find ourselves in re: doing a deal and the EU demands. I don't see it as bollox to have concerns about those demands, it is simply healthy skepticism about their motives which many share.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

No point wishing for something that won't happen folks - which is what a lot of you are still doing. The current position we find ourselves in given the EU's current position doesn't leave too many options for either side. Ultimately there may need to be a decision on whether it is more valuable long term to be free of EU regs and bureaucracy (which they want in place to keep us 'in line'), or a Canada style deal with major EU strings attached. I think you can make an case for either but it's not a no brainer. Although if the EU are going to be difficult then our hand may be forced.

Is that OK, or are you still holding on to the pitchforks and burning torches?

So if you're not sure - I assume, as you still haven't said which option you think is best - why the Daily Express parody posts?

In your opinion. See my reply to Morstar above. It's a genuine concern and there is clearly more to it than some right-on cliche about the DM.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

RU OK, hun?

I thought I'd get a reaction from you

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

It's not about accepting it or not, though to suggest I haven't is rather bizarre; where have I said I don't accept it's happening?

I just wonder what made you change your tune.

All I am doing is adapting to the changing reality of the situation - it's mentioned in my post above. We have left, there is no possibility of staying in the single market so we deal with the possibilities. I have always had big reservations about the EU and have said so on here a few times; this is simply applying these to the current position.

I could ask the same of you - except the question is why you haven't changed despite the changing circumstances?

Why should I change beliefs because of the outcome of a vote? The facts haven't materially changed.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

No point wishing for something that won't happen folks - which is what a lot of you are still doing. The current position we find ourselves in given the EU's current position doesn't leave too many options for either side. Ultimately there may need to be a decision on whether it is more valuable long term to be free of EU regs and bureaucracy (which they want in place to keep us 'in line'), or a Canada style deal with major EU strings attached. I think you can make an case for either but it's not a no brainer. Although if the EU are going to be difficult then our hand may be forced.

Is that OK, or are you still holding on to the pitchforks and burning torches?

So if you're not sure - I assume, as you still haven't said which option you think is best - why the Daily Express parody posts?

In your opinion. See my reply to Morstar above. It's a genuine concern and there is clearly more to it than some right-on cliche about the DM.

DM? It's an observation that the tone of your posts has shifted noticeably - you used to sound more like a Telegraph reader 😉. I don't recall you previously being that bothered about sovereignty. And the healthy scepticism seems to be applied in one direction only.

One last time on the Canada thing: CETA is not zero tariff/zero quota, which is what we (Johnson) previously said we were after. That is definitely a 'closer' relationship than CETA, so the principle of closer alignment is not unreasonable. Its debatable whether the EU's starting position is over-egging that, but I'm sure that'll come out in the wash. The idea that the UK are innocent hard-done-by victims is going too far the other way for me.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

RU OK, hun?

I thought I'd get a reaction from you

Well, you've gone all Coopster on us (viz "flushed out quite a few"). And I noticed you didn't answer my question about whether you'd think that arguing against a future elected Labour Government would be 'sad & bitter' and not 'accepting the democratic outcome'. I'd say it was both your right and your duty, in a democracy, to keep arguing for what you believe in.

kingstongraham

I accept we have left, but still think it's fucking stupid.

kingstongraham

I also can't see any deal that might destabilise the EU as good for the UK in the long term.

TheBigBean

The EU is keen for the UK to commit to the ECHR. For anyone who likes a thought provoking lecture this is very good and very persuasive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0005msd

tailwindhome

If the UK want to leave the ECHR they've a Good Friday Agreement problem

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

If the UK want to leave the ECHR they've a Good Friday Agreement problem

Indeed, but that doesn't negate rational and persuasive debate.

rjsterry

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

No point wishing for something that won't happen folks - which is what a lot of you are still doing. The current position we find ourselves in given the EU's current position doesn't leave too many options for either side. Ultimately there may need to be a decision on whether it is more valuable long term to be free of EU regs and bureaucracy (which they want in place to keep us 'in line'), or a Canada style deal with major EU strings attached. I think you can make an case for either but it's not a no brainer. Although if the EU are going to be difficult then our hand may be forced.

Is that OK, or are you still holding on to the pitchforks and burning torches?

So if you're not sure - I assume, as you still haven't said which option you think is best - why the Daily Express parody posts?

In your opinion. See my reply to Morstar above. It's a genuine concern and there is clearly more to it than some right-on cliche about the DM.

DM? It's an observation that the tone of your posts has shifted noticeably - you used to sound more like a Telegraph reader 😉. I don't recall you previously being that bothered about sovereignty. And the healthy scepticism seems to be applied in one direction only.

One last time on the Canada thing: CETA is not zero tariff/zero quota, which is what we (Johnson) previously said we were after. That is definitely a 'closer' relationship than CETA, so the principle of closer alignment is not unreasonable. Its debatable whether the EU's starting position is over-egging that, but I'm sure that'll come out in the wash. The idea that the UK are innocent hard-done-by victims is going too far the other way for me.

And based on this thread on the first round of negotiations we are still asking for *more* than Canada: more like a greatest hits compilation of EU FTAs.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1235837363885989893

surrey_commuter

I assume the DT is madly pro-Brexit, do all of it’s writers religiously toe the line or is this Foster chap more balanced?

I am just trying to get a handle on whether the DT is disapproving of the Boris apparent stupidity

rjsterry

Well Coopster thinks he's a Remoaner so...

rjsterry

Fascinating interview with David Lidington (posted for general interest, not making any particular point).

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/ministers-reflect/person/david-lidington/

briantrumpet

rjsterry said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1235837363885989893

Here's the whole Foster Twitter thread. Foster's moving to the FT, incidentally. The DT remains rabidly Brexitty... but, like Stevo, it once thought that Remain was the way to go.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1235836011613048832.html

surrey_commuter

It is amazing how far we have come from the halcyon days of leaving on terms at least as good as we already have.

I think it is becoming apparent that the way to know what BoJo really thinks is to take note of his unguarded comments “fvck business” and telling the NI biz meeting that nothing will change.

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

It is amazing how far we have come from the halcyon days of leaving on terms at least as good as we already have.

I think it is becoming apparent that the way to know what BoJo really thinks is to take note of his unguarded comments “fvck business” and telling the NI biz meeting that nothing will change.

It's almost as if the Cake-&-Eat-It plan was never realistic.

TheBigBean

Pesky EU rule example, all biometric residence cards must have some new form of encryption after 2024 which the UK government can't currently produce. The result being they now all expire in Dec 2024. These are cards that control non-EU immigration to the UK.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

No point wishing for something that won't happen folks - which is what a lot of you are still doing. The current position we find ourselves in given the EU's current position doesn't leave too many options for either side. Ultimately there may need to be a decision on whether it is more valuable long term to be free of EU regs and bureaucracy (which they want in place to keep us 'in line'), or a Canada style deal with major EU strings attached. I think you can make an case for either but it's not a no brainer. Although if the EU are going to be difficult then our hand may be forced.

Is that OK, or are you still holding on to the pitchforks and burning torches?

So if you're not sure - I assume, as you still haven't said which option you think is best - why the Daily Express parody posts?

In your opinion. See my reply to Morstar above. It's a genuine concern and there is clearly more to it than some right-on cliche about the DM.

DM? It's an observation that the tone of your posts has shifted noticeably - you used to sound more like a Telegraph reader 😉. I don't recall you previously being that bothered about sovereignty. And the healthy scepticism seems to be applied in one direction only.

One last time on the Canada thing: CETA is not zero tariff/zero quota, which is what we (Johnson) previously said we were after. That is definitely a 'closer' relationship than CETA, so the principle of closer alignment is not unreasonable. Its debatable whether the EU's starting position is over-egging that, but I'm sure that'll come out in the wash. The idea that the UK are innocent hard-done-by victims is going too far the other way for me.

I've explained before the advantages of being able to set rules that are applicable to the UK rather than being some compromise effort to suit 20-odd countries with different circumstances and needs. That's not DM, its just common sense.

Also why do you think the EU is so insistent on this 'level playing field'. Could it be because they are worried that their playing field isn't very good compared to what ours could become? In which case, it is a tacit admission that of the benefits of being able to set your own rules.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

surrey_commuter said:

It is amazing how far we have come from the halcyon days of leaving on terms at least as good as we already have.

I think it is becoming apparent that the way to know what BoJo really thinks is to take note of his unguarded comments “fvck business” and telling the NI biz meeting that nothing will change.

It's almost as if the Cake-&-Eat-It plan was never realistic.

A bit late now Brian.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

surrey_commuter said:

It is amazing how far we have come from the halcyon days of leaving on terms at least as good as we already have.

I think it is becoming apparent that the way to know what BoJo really thinks is to take note of his unguarded comments “fvck business” and telling the NI biz meeting that nothing will change.

It's almost as if the Cake-&-Eat-It plan was never realistic.

A bit late now Brian.

I think you might find that some of us were making the point some time ago. And I assume you're not going to complain should we observe when past predictions come to pass. Had the Leave camp been honest/realistic earlier, we might not have been in the current predicament.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

surrey_commuter said:

It is amazing how far we have come from the halcyon days of leaving on terms at least as good as we already have.

I think it is becoming apparent that the way to know what BoJo really thinks is to take note of his unguarded comments “fvck business” and telling the NI biz meeting that nothing will change.

It's almost as if the Cake-&-Eat-It plan was never realistic.

A bit late now Brian.

I think you might find that some of us were making the point some time ago. And I assume you're not going to complain should we observe when past predictions come to pass. Had the Leave camp been honest/realistic earlier, we might not have been in the current predicament.

May as well set out your predictions now so we know what we are judging. Also give a time scale.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

RU OK, hun?

I thought I'd get a reaction from you

Well, you've gone all Coopster on us (viz "flushed out quite a few"). And I noticed you didn't answer my question about whether you'd think that arguing against a future elected Labour Government would be 'sad & bitter' and not 'accepting the democratic outcome'. I'd say it was both your right and your duty, in a democracy, to keep arguing for what you believe in.

When what you believe in is pretty much an impossible scenario for the foreseeable future, maybe it's time to change tack? Helps avoid disappointment and bitterness, which I think is good advice for you right now.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

I see I have flushed out quite a few who are in the 'incapable of accepting a democratic outcome' category judging by the volume and tone of this morning's posts so far

RU OK, hun?

I thought I'd get a reaction from you

Well, you've gone all Coopster on us (viz "flushed out quite a few"). And I noticed you didn't answer my question about whether you'd think that arguing against a future elected Labour Government would be 'sad & bitter' and not 'accepting the democratic outcome'. I'd say it was both your right and your duty, in a democracy, to keep arguing for what you believe in.

When what you believe in is pretty much an impossible scenario for the foreseeable future, maybe it's time to change tack? Helps avoid disappointment and bitterness, which I think is good advice for you right now.

Perhaps you'll answer my question about whether you'd complain if a Labour Government got in...

briantrumpet

And just to remind you... a certain group of people pretty much complained for the past forty years about our membership of the EEC/EU... are you saying that their complaints didn't work?