BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

Jeremy.89

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

I can see that; I'm asking why. It's pretty clear the article is talking about the past.

I'm well aware that every forecast comes with a probability less than 1.

You have been dragged into an argument about whether economic modelling/forecasting exists.

You know you are correct so just ignore them.

I have seen numbers of that magnitude suggested elsewhere so it seems plausible.

Staggering to think of the lengths a Govt would go to in normal circumstances to increase GDP by 1%pa.

It should also be noted that the shortfall is expected to revert to 0.5%pa

Should we expect to see a bit of a bumper year as investments that were being delayed due to the no deal fear get pushed through? Although I guess it would have to be a very bumper year to make up for the cumulative smaller gains that the data suggests we've had.

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

Finally had the op late last night after it was pushed back 8 times.

Phew. I hope the recovery is speedy now. GWS.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Bit of a pointless argument anyway as we are laving regardless and its all a bit hypothetical.

😁 I'm sure you take the same approach at work. No point reviewing last year's figures: it's all in the past. And forecasts can't be relied upon: you just have to live in the moment.

Slightly different situation, but reviewing our historical results does not make forecasting any easier. If you think you can predict the mid to long term future with reasonable accuracy then you could make yourself very rich. However....

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

Bit of a pointless argument anyway as we are laving regardless and its all a bit hypothetical.

It doesn't strike me as 'hypothetical' to want to consider whether a decision was a sensible one, and the only way of doing that is by assessing possible/probable outcomes for different scenarios. After all, looking at historical choices and seeing how they worked out prevents one from making the same poor choices again. I'm guessing that in your line of business, you do a fair amount of financial modelling, which, (again, I'm guessing), is based on reviewing historical data, and then making your best guesses based on how previous decisions panned out.

You give the impression of wanting for there to be no baseline from which anyone will be allowed to claim that this was a poor choice, if things do go pear-shaped.

That's not the right impression.

Try reading my posts again and see of you get the point that I was making. It's all there - original points made back on page 1354 to help you address the poi t rather than the one you want to address. Same goes for RJS.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Finally had the op late last night after it was pushed back 8 times.

Well you're posting so you must be reasonably OK. Have they 'fixed' you?

Jeremy.89

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

Bit of a pointless argument anyway as we are laving regardless and its all a bit hypothetical.

It doesn't strike me as 'hypothetical' to want to consider whether a decision was a sensible one, and the only way of doing that is by assessing possible/probable outcomes for different scenarios. After all, looking at historical choices and seeing how they worked out prevents one from making the same poor choices again. I'm guessing that in your line of business, you do a fair amount of financial modelling, which, (again, I'm guessing), is based on reviewing historical data, and then making your best guesses based on how previous decisions panned out.

You give the impression of wanting for there to be no baseline from which anyone will be allowed to claim that this was a poor choice, if things do go pear-shaped.

That's not the right impression.

Try reading my posts again and see of you get the point that I was making. It's all there - original points made back on page 1354 to help you address the poi t rather than the one you want to address. Same goes for RJS.

Two sides dancing around an argument but not actually engaging with the other. Sort of feels like the election ;-)

Stevo_666

Jeremy.89 said:

Two sides dancing around an argument but not actually engaging with the other. Sort of feels like the election ;-)

To be fair, I made the original point and then others came in and tried to address a different issue. Classic Cake Stop inability or unwillingness to stick to the point.

Here's a visual representation of the problem for those who think they can predict the future andin say 10 years time they can tell us how much better off we could have been if we hadn't left:
https://peltiertech.com/excel-fan-chart-showing-uncertainty-in-projections/



The example is historical by the principle is still valid. I get similar type graphs for currency exchange rate predictions but over shorter timescales.

Forecasts have an inherent uncertainty and over time that uncertainty increases - as shown by the variances i.e.gap in the range of possible outcomes. Over the longer term timescales I am talking about, these variances in the forecast 'remain' scenario' will become so large as to make any comparison with the actual at the same point in the future so approximate that they are pretty meaningless.

ballysmate

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

Finally had the op late last night after it was pushed back 8 times.

Well you're posting so you must be reasonably OK. Have they 'fixed' you?

Woke chip needed replacing or better still, removing?
Whatever it was, speedy recovery.

TheBigBean

Interesting article on things to be positive about.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/goodbye-little-england-we-are-positively-happy-0hk3sgd8c

Someone has posted the text here

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/enn9eq/in_brexit_britain_we_are_positively_happy/

Jeremy.89

Stevo_666 said:

Jeremy.89 said:

Two sides dancing around an argument but not actually engaging with the other. Sort of feels like the election ;-)

To be fair, I made the original point and then others came in and tried to address a different issue. Classic Cake Stop inability or unwillingness to stick to the point.

Here's a visual representation of the problem for those who think they can predict the future andin say 10 years time they can tell us how much better off we could have been if we hadn't left:
https://peltiertech.com/excel-fan-chart-showing-uncertainty-in-projections/



The example is historical by the principle is still valid. I get similar type graphs for currency exchange rate predictions but over shorter timescales.

Forecasts have an inherent uncertainty and over time that uncertainty increases - as shown by the variances i.e.gap in the range of possible outcomes. Over the longer term timescales I am talking about, these variances in the forecast 'remain' scenario' will become so large as to make any comparison with the actual at the same point in the future so approximate that they are pretty meaningless.

You don't have to look at predictions though. We can look at actual data from similar economies, and the UKs performance against that.

As a more broad point, people's understanding of statistical uncertainty seems to vary between a misunderstanding of it, to an incomplete understanding of it...

As an illustration I used to work selling software that (amongst other things) used warranty return data to predict the life of components. A company sold tens of thousands of their product and had hundreds returned, and then fit a curve showing expected probability of failure v time. You could then plot the confidence intervals on the curve Because of the high number of sample points the confidence intervals more or less were the same as the curve. Fantastic...except if you looked at the data, the model didn't fit at all. Plotting the confidence intervals was a nice statistical mathematical exercise, but added absolutely no engineering value.

Stevo_666

Jeremy.89 said:

You don't have to look at predictions though. We can look at actual data from similar economies, and the UKs performance against that.

Fair point, as at least then we would be comparing actuals with actuals rather than actuals with extrapolated forecasts.

However, comparing to another country is not comparing apples with apples as other countries, even'similar' ones, have numerous other factors affecting their own economic performance which will muddy the picture alongside the obvious difference of the UK (Brexited) vs other countries (not Brexited). Add to that point's such as being different phases of the economic cycle etc and a proper comparison becomes very unreliable.

We will also have endless selective use of stats (which countries to compare to, which period to use etc, what currency to use - as was done on here very recently) by both sides to prove their point that it was or wasn't harmful.

Stevo_666

TheBlueBean said:

Interesting article on things to be positive about.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/goodbye-little-england-we-are-positively-happy-0hk3sgd8c

Someone has posted the text here

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/enn9eq/in_brexit_britain_we_are_positively_happy/

Very good article. I think the author must have read Cake Stop to get some of the liberal-left perspective

Quote:
"Welcome to the incredibly depressing world-view of the liberal left. The only problem is that it isn’t true. Compare and contrast this bleak picture of Britain with the evidence.

As every study of Brexit has shown, the British voted this way not because of white supremacism, to kick out immigrants or to return to splendid isolation.

No, they wanted two completely reasonable things: for decisions that affect the UK to be taken in the UK, and for the government to be able to control who comes in and out of the country. Since then, the British have become less concerned about migration and more positive about its effects."

Stevo_666

And also from the article above:
"Many on the liberal left claim that Britain has gone “hard right” because they catastrophise about the worst possible outcome and view the world through the same binary lens as the populists. There are no shades of grey in this world. But all the key trends are heading in the other direction. In recent years the percentage of Brits who think there are too many migrants has slumped by 20 points. Britain has not only become more welcoming but more positive.

Whereas at the beginning of last decade two in three felt that immigration had been bad for the nation, the proportion is now down to one in four. Surveys show that public support for doctors, care workers and students from overseas remains widespread.

Whisper it quietly in Brussels, but the Brits are also more positive about these issues than many of their supposedly more enlightened neighbours.

Many in the EU talk about “Little England”, but according to the YouGov-Cambridge survey the British are less likely than the French, Germans and Italians to think that the costs of migration outweigh the benefits.

Brexit made our politics more responsive, whereas most EU states are still struggling and failing to contain populist forces.

These changes reflect deeper, longer-term trends that are sweeping across Britain and that throw cold water on liberal pessimism."

All from the rabidly Tory rag The Times.

thecycleclinic

Stevo_666 said:

thecycleclinic said:

FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k

If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public.

Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.

I'd agree with that. I dont think there will be a noticable impact. The impact will be real though if we only get a limited goods trade agreement but the impact you wont pin effect x to brexit.

That the while problem with the whole project
It based on what people feel rather than what real. I'm beyond caring now. I'm more concerned helping my party start to see reality hense I am now membership secretary for the local branch.

thecycleclinic

Forecasts are just that. They make assumptions about conditions. There is also a range with probabilities attached to them. From what I remember the forecast range did include some growth with is what we have seen but had a low probability of that. For once the unlikely happened and that's probably because some of the assumptions made about how people reacted to the referendum result where incorrect. That the thing with forecasts they are only as good as the Initial data and it's not like they were wrong. What is wrong is to say the forecast predicts x
It predict a range of possibilities from a through to z with different probabilities attached to each.

Stevo_666

thecycleclinic said:

Forecasts are just that. They make assumptions about conditions. There is also a range with probabilities attached to them. From what I remember the forecast range did include some growth with is what we have seen but had a low probability of that. For once the unlikely happened and that's probably because some of the assumptions made about how people reacted to the referendum result where incorrect. That the thing with forecasts they are only as good as the Initial data and it's not like they were wrong. What is wrong is to say the forecast predicts x
It predict a range of possibilities from a through to z with different probabilities attached to each.

True.

There is also the point that in complex systems (such as national economies), there is what's known as sensitive dependence on initial conditions, aka 'The Butterfly Effect'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

Which basically means that it's pretty much impossible to predict the lohg term future state of such systems with any accuracy, as minor variances in the starting conditions are magnified over time (which also accounts for the increasing spread of forecast GDP variances in the graph I posted above).

The book 'Chaos' is a great if rather techy read about this.

orraloon

Stevo_666 said:

And also from the article above:
"Many on the liberal left claim that Britain has gone “hard right” because they catastrophise about the worst possible outcome and view the world through the same binary lens as the populists. There are no shades of grey in this world. But all the key trends are heading in the other direction. In recent years the percentage of Brits who think there are too many migrants has slumped by 20 points. Britain has not only become more welcoming but more positive.

Whereas at the beginning of last decade two in three felt that immigration had been bad for the nation, the proportion is now down to one in four. Surveys show that public support for doctors, care workers and students from overseas remains widespread.

Whisper it quietly in Brussels, but the Brits are also more positive about these issues than many of their supposedly more enlightened neighbours.

Many in the EU talk about “Little England”, but according to the YouGov-Cambridge survey the British are less likely than the French, Germans and Italians to think that the costs of migration outweigh the benefits.

Brexit made our politics more responsive, whereas most EU states are still struggling and failing to contain populist forces.

These changes reflect deeper, longer-term trends that are sweeping across Britain and that throw cold water on liberal pessimism."

All from the rabidly Tory rag The Times.

Oh, I think we can expect much more of the 'it's all wonderful' line trotted out by da Gummint and its tame hacks. Then there is (S)Cummings and BloJo's film factory...

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/tim-walker-mandrake-brexit-dream-factory-open-for-business-1-6457671

As for the boxxox in that Times splurge... maybe just ask about the increase in overt racism evident in the kickball theatre?

Don't question. Just accept. Then everyone (make that the politicos) is happy.

Have a re-read of Orwell's '1984'. See if you can see any patterns.

Stevo_666

orraloon said:

Stevo_666 said:

And also from the article above:
"Many on the liberal left claim that Britain has gone “hard right” because they catastrophise about the worst possible outcome and view the world through the same binary lens as the populists. There are no shades of grey in this world. But all the key trends are heading in the other direction. In recent years the percentage of Brits who think there are too many migrants has slumped by 20 points. Britain has not only become more welcoming but more positive.

Whereas at the beginning of last decade two in three felt that immigration had been bad for the nation, the proportion is now down to one in four. Surveys show that public support for doctors, care workers and students from overseas remains widespread.

Whisper it quietly in Brussels, but the Brits are also more positive about these issues than many of their supposedly more enlightened neighbours.

Many in the EU talk about “Little England”, but according to the YouGov-Cambridge survey the British are less likely than the French, Germans and Italians to think that the costs of migration outweigh the benefits.

Brexit made our politics more responsive, whereas most EU states are still struggling and failing to contain populist forces.

These changes reflect deeper, longer-term trends that are sweeping across Britain and that throw cold water on liberal pessimism."

All from the rabidly Tory rag The Times.

Oh, I think we can expect much more of the 'it's all wonderful' line trotted out by da Gummint and its tame hacks. Then there is (S)Cummings and BloJo's film factory...

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/tim-walker-mandrake-brexit-dream-factory-open-for-business-1-6457671

As for the boxxox in that Times splurge... maybe just ask about the increase in overt racism evident in the kickball theatre?

Don't question. Just accept. Then everyone (make that the politicos) is happy.

Have a re-read of Orwell's '1984'. See if you can see any patterns.

1984?

You seem to fit the profile very well - I rest my case.

surrey_commuter

Can I suggest that the forecast deniers read up upon economic modelling.

briantrumpet

Weather forecasting: just because forecasts 'go wrong' doesn't mean that the Met Office doesn't forecast or stop analysing where divergences occur and why. That's why forecasting has got more accurate, both in day-to-day terms, and in climate trends. The current state of weather forecasting is indeed entirely based on making the best extrapolations from analysing historical data, creating various models based on that data, then comparing the outcomes of those models with actual weather.

It's a given that no weather forecasts can 'guarantee' their reliability to a specific accuracy, but they increasingly understand how reliable their probability of accuracy is, specifically because they compare the modelling & forecasts to the actual weather and climate. We'd not think much of them if they just said "no point in forecasting, as we know we'll get weather, whatever we do".

More specifically, what we do to mitigate climate change, given the projections suggested by climate science, could be rather important... "oh well, whatevs!" might not be the best course of action.

Stevo_666

surrey_commuter said:

Can I suggest that the forecast deniers read up upon economic modelling.

I just explained it for you.

john80

briantrumpet said:

Weather forecasting: just because forecasts 'go wrong' doesn't mean that the Met Office doesn't forecast or stop analysing where divergences occur and why. That's why forecasting has got more accurate, both in day-to-day terms, and in climate trends. The current state of weather forecasting is indeed entirely based on making the best extrapolations from analysing historical data, creating various models based on that data, then comparing the outcomes of those models with actual weather.

It's a given that no weather forecasts can 'guarantee' their reliability to a specific accuracy, but they increasingly understand how reliable their probability of accuracy is, specifically because they compare the modelling & forecasts to the actual weather and climate. We'd not think much of them if they just said "no point in forecasting, as we know we'll get weather, whatever we do".

More specifically, what we do to mitigate climate change, given the projections suggested by climate science, could be rather important... "oh well, whatevs!" might not be the best course of action.

I think you might be comparing apples and oranges here.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Weather forecasting: just because forecasts 'go wrong' doesn't mean that the Met Office doesn't forecast or stop analysing where divergences occur and why. That's why forecasting has got more accurate, both in day-to-day terms, and in climate trends. The current state of weather forecasting is indeed entirely based on making the best extrapolations from analysing historical data, creating various models based on that data, then comparing the outcomes of those models with actual weather.

It's a given that no weather forecasts can 'guarantee' their reliability to a specific accuracy, but they increasingly understand how reliable their probability of accuracy is, specifically because they compare the modelling & forecasts to the actual weather and climate. We'd not think much of them if they just said "no point in forecasting, as we know we'll get weather, whatever we do".

More specifically, what we do to mitigate climate change, given the projections suggested by climate science, could be rather important... "oh well, whatevs!" might not be the best course of action.

The weather forecasting example backs up my point very well - specifically that accurate longer term forecasts are not possible. Thanks for raising that one Brian.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Weather forecasting: just because forecasts 'go wrong' doesn't mean that the Met Office doesn't forecast or stop analysing where divergences occur and why. That's why forecasting has got more accurate, both in day-to-day terms, and in climate trends. The current state of weather forecasting is indeed entirely based on making the best extrapolations from analysing historical data, creating various models based on that data, then comparing the outcomes of those models with actual weather.

It's a given that no weather forecasts can 'guarantee' their reliability to a specific accuracy, but they increasingly understand how reliable their probability of accuracy is, specifically because they compare the modelling & forecasts to the actual weather and climate. We'd not think much of them if they just said "no point in forecasting, as we know we'll get weather, whatever we do".

More specifically, what we do to mitigate climate change, given the projections suggested by climate science, could be rather important... "oh well, whatevs!" might not be the best course of action.

The weather forecasting example backs up my point very well - specifically that accurate longer term forecasts are not possible. Thanks for raising that one Brian.

You neatly overlook the climate science point... i.e., what is happening has been predicted.

And, of course, they still do do longer range forecasts, even if the results are variable. That's rather different from your "don't bother" suggestion.

rick_chasey

Somehow had the forecast shown Brexit was an economic master stroke I don’t think we’d be having this argument with Stevo.

rick_chasey

Also, f’ck me the NHS experience is pretty sh!t isn’t it? Holy moly.

bompington

rick_chasey said:

Also, f’ck me the NHS experience is pretty sh!t isn’t it? Holy moly.

Blasphemy! Don't you know the NHS is now our official national religion, and no negative thoughts will be tolerated?

Seriously, the experience of being ill / operated on is no fun (apart from the drugs) in any system - and YMMV enormously in the NHS. Hope you're doing well in spite / because of it

ballysmate

rick_chasey said:

Somehow had the forecast shown Brexit was an economic master stroke I don’t think we’d be having this argument with Stevo.

If that was the case do you seriously think it would have seen the light of day in Cake Stop?

surrey_commuter

bompington said:

rick_chasey said:

Also, f’ck me the NHS experience is pretty sh!t isn’t it? Holy moly.

Blasphemy! Don't you know the NHS is now our official national religion, and no negative thoughts will be tolerated?

Seriously, the experience of being ill / operated on is no fun (apart from the drugs) in any system - and YMMV enormously in the NHS. Hope you're doing well in spite / because of it

It is like the emperor’s new clothes and makes you wonder whether the bubble will ever burst.

Rick - are you back home?

Stevo_666

ballysmate said:

rick_chasey said:

Somehow had the forecast shown Brexit was an economic master stroke I don’t think we’d be having this argument with Stevo.

If that was the case do you seriously think it would have seen the light of day in Cake Stop?

How true.