BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

joelsim

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/sta ... 7635468288

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/sta ... 4882031616

It really is a shame that Parliament wasn't paying attention when the referendum bill went through the HoC and the HoL. A few minor tweaks re turnout threshold and a super-majority and the referendum would all be a distant memory and Cameron would be best buddies with JCJ. I'm not sure they deserve a second chance, tbh.

It isn't about them, it's about 'hard working families' in today's parlance.

wallace_and_gromit

Joelsim wrote:

The predictions aren't wrong. They were based on analysis of what would be the likely outcomes if we were to leave.

We haven't left yet. For the umpteenth time. I'm beginning to think you're a bit thick.

I've spent a lot of time on various internet forums over the years but I've never felt compelled to call someone a f*cking idiot. Until now. You are one. Just take your head out of your backside and read what I've actually written. If that's too hard then just practice tying your shoelaces.

joelsim

Ha ha ha.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/sta ... 7169084417

https://twitter.com/supadrogulus/status ... 6895673344

joelsim

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

The predictions aren't wrong. They were based on analysis of what would be the likely outcomes if we were to leave.

We haven't left yet. For the umpteenth time. I'm beginning to think you're a bit thick.

I've spent a lot of time on various internet forums over the years but I've never felt compelled to call someone a f*cking idiot. Until now. You are one. Just take your head out of your backside and read what I've actually written. If that's too hard then just practice tying your shoelaces.

How can a forecast for something that hasn't happened be proven to be wide of the mark?

A forecast is something based on the likely outcome when something happens. If that something doesn't happen then that forecast isn't relevant.

You've been told this by several posters over the last few hours, but you choose to ignore it.

joelsim

To make it easier for you to understand, here's an analogy.

I place a bet on a horse race, that was last week.

My friend asks me today if I won. I say the race hasn't happened yet, it's actually next week.

He says. Ha ha ha, you lost.

joelsim

We won’t get the official take on post-referendum GDP growth until October. But early surveys of the construction, manufacturing and services sectors, point to the economy shrinking in the third quarter, say their compilers. There was a record fall in the all-sector purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in July, which was published earlier in the month. Markit’s chief economist Chris Williamson said that pointed to a 0.4% drop in GDP in the July-to-September quarter, a stark contrast to growth of 0.6% in the previous three months.

kingstongraham

Joelsim wrote:

It's pointless trying to reason with people who twist reality to suit their purposes.

Is that another joke?

kingstongraham

Joelsim wrote:

To make it easier for you to understand, here's an analogy.

I place a bet on a horse race, that was last week.

My friend asks me today if I won. I say the race hasn't happened yet, it's actually next week.

He says. Ha ha ha, you lost.

But the race was last week.

Lookyhere

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

why arent you so damming of the brexitors and their £350m per week to spend on NHS or their points based system, to slash immigration ?

these had a far greater effect on the out come and were blatant lies.

But there's no-one here defending those claims, so damning them would be a bit pointless - everyone here would agree. And pretty much every obvious "porky" made by the Leave campaign has already been disowned. IIRC the £350m for the NHS was disowned within a few hours of the result being called. There are a few who are unable or unwilling to accept that some of the predictions made by the Remain campaign were simply wrong, hence my interest in debating the subject.

It's all from an academic viewpoint. Sh*t regularly happens at the ballot box and you just have to make the best of it, however bad it may be, so I'm not trying to justify to myself or others that the result is "wrong" or that the referendum is invalid or that we should use all available means to ignore the result, as some (well Joel) seem to want to do.

well, given that attitude, no point arguing about any thing.

Society of motor manufactures are seriously worried about not being part of single market... how jobs is that? so worried they are in Paris pushing their wares.

Joel is correct, until A50 is triggered and we leave, no one, not even you, know what will happen, not sure why you struggle with this tbh.

TheBigBean

Joelsim - out of interest, what do you like about the EU?

TheBigBean

I also think there were a lot of lies told on both sides, but most of the self-proclaimed more intelligent 48% seem oblivious to half of them.

finchy

TheBigBean wrote:

Joelsim - out of interest, what do you like about the EU?

I know this question isn't directed to me, but I like the fact that the European Parliament has multi-member constituencies, so unlike the British Parliament, the vast majority of voters actually get a constituency MEP that they voted for.

orraloon

Meanwhile back in the real world, on R4 this morning a director of JaguarLandRover, while dodging the direct question of impact on UK jobs, did stress their focus on globalised production with new investment taking place in Slovakia. You know, one of those countries that will remain inside the EU.

Well played Leave voting Brummies. How will your face feel minus your nose?

mamba80

orraloon wrote:

Meanwhile back in the real world, on R4 this morning a director of JaguarLandRover, while dodging the direct question of impact on UK jobs, did stress their focus on globalised production with new investment taking place in Slovakia. You know, one of those countries that will remain inside the EU.

Well played Leave voting Brummies. How will your face feel minus your nose?

Very popular now, no doubt, but their spokesman was worried about Brexit, hence the marketing in Paris, the sale of cars into Europe is immense, no doubt Peugeot and VW are eyeing up the "opportunities" of Brexit.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2016/09/british-b ... otor-show/

rick_chasey

joelsim

TheBigBean wrote:

Joelsim - out of interest, what do you like about the EU?

Whilst the EU is far from perfect, there are plenty of benefits of being a member. I'm more concerned about the social and economic aspects of leaving the Union. Of course as well as the obvious economic benefits of being part of the single market, workers' rights are far stronger in than they would be out, environmental issues are bigger in (we lag here anyway), security, peace & collaboration and many more. Some reform is needed clearly, but on balance the benefits hugely outweigh the costs.

Just seen this too, worth a read.

http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/arch ... ern-europe

joelsim

mamba80 wrote:

orraloon wrote:

Meanwhile back in the real world, on R4 this morning a director of JaguarLandRover, while dodging the direct question of impact on UK jobs, did stress their focus on globalised production with new investment taking place in Slovakia. You know, one of those countries that will remain inside the EU.

Well played Leave voting Brummies. How will your face feel minus your nose?

Very popular now, no doubt, but their spokesman was worried about Brexit, hence the marketing in Paris, the sale of cars into Europe is immense, no doubt Peugeot and VW are eyeing up the "opportunities" of Brexit.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2016/09/british-b ... otor-show/

Add that to Nissan etc relocating if we don't have free access to the single market. Oh dear Sunderland, didn't really think that one through did you.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37024707

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 24841.html

Stopping Brexit really is an absolute no-brainer.

joelsim

Lookyhere wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

why arent you so damming of the brexitors and their £350m per week to spend on NHS or their points based system, to slash immigration ?

these had a far greater effect on the out come and were blatant lies.

But there's no-one here defending those claims, so damning them would be a bit pointless - everyone here would agree. And pretty much every obvious "porky" made by the Leave campaign has already been disowned. IIRC the £350m for the NHS was disowned within a few hours of the result being called. There are a few who are unable or unwilling to accept that some of the predictions made by the Remain campaign were simply wrong, hence my interest in debating the subject.

It's all from an academic viewpoint. Sh*t regularly happens at the ballot box and you just have to make the best of it, however bad it may be, so I'm not trying to justify to myself or others that the result is "wrong" or that the referendum is invalid or that we should use all available means to ignore the result, as some (well Joel) seem to want to do.

well, given that attitude, no point arguing about any thing.

Society of motor manufactures are seriously worried about not being part of single market... how jobs is that? so worried they are in Paris pushing their wares.

Joel is correct, until A50 is triggered and we leave, no one, not even you, know what will happen, not sure why you struggle with this tbh.

Even if we had have left already, then the majority of the economic affects take months to manifest themselves, aside from the obvious shocks. As companies pull out one by one, foreign investment slides, unemployment begins to rise, shops then start seeing decreased sales, and so the cycle begins.

Already appearing there's likely to be a percentage point shift in growth from the last quarter as well as Sterling's devaluation, amongst other things.

But hey, all will be fine as we strike a cracking trade deal with Togo.

kingstongraham

Think I'll just get on with making the most of the opportunities there'll be as we move through leaving the EU. No point in pretending it isn't going to happen.

joelsim

KingstonGraham wrote:

Think I'll just get on with making the most of the opportunities there'll be as we move through leaving the EU. No point in pretending it isn't going to happen.

20% off penguins after the trade deal with Antartica is sealed.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

Joelsim - out of interest, what do you like about the EU?

I like it for the following reasons. They’re not enormously well thought out or well written. Just a splurge.

I fundamentally think the single market is great. I think being a part of it is a huge advantage. In so many ways I think it’s great. I’ve found doing business in the EU and absolute breeze (versus Switzerland which is a PITA, let alone the US). It means Britain, along with every other EU country is one of the first in line for trade deals across the world. It’s the biggest market, so everyone wants to make a deal with it. Bi-lateral agreements outside of the EU and the US get put back. It gives huge bargaining power when it pulls in the same direction. But the ease of business should not be underestimated. It has made my job so much easier, and I have been able to sell my services uninhibited on the continent with so much ease. Working with a Dutch client? Not a problem. It opens up the rest of Europe, and it’s so liberating to have that.

I like that it has raised standards across the EU for products, in order to make them part of the single market. No more worries about salmonella in raw eggs. I know that anything EU produced is up to the same standards as in the UK and visa versa.

I’ve also lived in a town which has been the recipient of EU objective 2 funding, and the results have been great; Sheffield. I can’t think of a better example of how to reverse post-industrial decline.
I like that Britain, as a member, is reminded that there is a bigger world out there. Outside of the US, I can’t think of a country with such introverted news and focus. I do think this is a huge contribution to the lilliput syndrome the UK has. It is odd that EU rules, debates, and decisions were never on the evening news for example. It’s a shame, but at least there was a reminder every 5 years with the EU election.

I like that I am/was free to move to different parts of the EU without any hassle. My friend & family have benefited so much from that. The opportunity and access to jobs across Europe such a huge privilege, and I envy my friends who took advantage of it.

I read a lot of European history, and I like that by being forced to negotiate how to co-operate, sitting around round tables. It’s very difficult to fall into a mindset of enemies. I think it helps keep the peace. If people complain that all the EU does is discuss petty things like the size of pillows, then surely that is a sign of success? I’d rather that than debating a peace treaty.

There’s a lot I like about the EU.

finchy

^^^ To add to this list, I'd say that it's an absolute shame that our children will probably have fewer opportunities to work, study and travel in Europe now. Fortunately mine will be able to apply for Slovak citizenship and get an EU passport, but others will not be so fortunate.

kingstongraham

Hopefully their children will be back in. I don't think it will be 40 years before we rejoin something that is like the EU.

surrey_commuter

Why do I like the EU?
I know enough about economic history to know the UK was in long term economic decline then we joined the EU.
I inherently believe in free trade. We live in a world where it is as easy to buy/sell/work in Sheffield as it is Munich, Marseilles or Malaga.

joelsim

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Why do I like the EU?
I know enough about economic history to know the UK was in long term economic decline then we joined the EU.
I inherently believe in free trade. We live in a world where it is as easy to buy/sell/work in Sheffield as it is Munich, Marseilles or Malaga.

Well, whilst being in the EU we've fared better than the US. Clearly that isn't going to be the case soon. Hey, it doesn't matter. Little England will be fine I'm sure. The rich will get richer, some areas will become horror zones of poverty.

No probs.

rick_chasey

Any Sunderland Brexiters want to come and defend their vote?

Stevo_666

Nervous times ahead for the EU...
http://fortune.com/2016/08/24/austria-italy-france-eu-exit/

pblakeney

Curious what Mex cities have to do with the EU.

ddraver

Stevo 666 wrote:

Nervous times ahead for the EU...
http://fortune.com/2016/08/24/austria-italy-france-eu-exit/

...well at least they ve stopped harping on about that Nexit nonsense.....

mamba80

Stevo 666 wrote:

Nervous times ahead for the EU...
http://fortune.com/2016/08/24/austria-italy-france-eu-exit/

whats our banks exposure to this?