BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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To be honest I don't blame Cameron for not wanting to go down in history as the person who completely screwed the country. He's half-way there already and needs someone to save him. Is that Theresa May? Do we actually know what she's going to do?
One of the stooges suggested that they'll be looking at the financial aspects of various scenarios before choosing the best (which really means the least worst). It'll be a brave (or stupid) person who sees the potential devastation and then invokes.0 -
Joelsim wrote:No, they weren't wrong. We had a shock initially after the vote and then the BofE intervened to steady the ship...
If the short term predictions of doom following a leave vote aren't wrong, where's the immediate recession and the collapse in house prices etc?
Your reference to BoE intervention is telling. It was pretty clear that intervention would happen if required and sensibly it has. Osborne's scary prediction was based on the assumption that the BoE would sit idly by and watch the sky fall in.0 -
Joelsim wrote:It'll be a brave (or stupid) person who sees the potential devastation and then invokes.
There are plenty of brave and stupid politicians. Some are even both. All have taxpayer funded index linked pensions, so don't expect financially rational decisions.0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:Joelsim wrote:No, they weren't wrong. We had a shock initially after the vote and then the BofE intervened to steady the ship...
If the short term predictions of doom following a leave vote aren't wrong, where's the immediate recession and the collapse in house prices etc?
Your reference to BoE intervention is telling. It was pretty clear that intervention would happen if required and sensibly it has. Osborne's scary prediction was based on the assumption that the BoE would sit idly by and watch the sky fall in.
Erm. It hasn't happened yet, as has been mentioned frequently. We haven't left yet.0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:Joelsim wrote:No, they weren't wrong. We had a shock initially after the vote and then the BofE intervened to steady the ship...
If the short term predictions of doom following a leave vote aren't wrong, where's the immediate recession and the collapse in house prices etc?
Your reference to BoE intervention is telling. It was pretty clear that intervention would happen if required and sensibly it has. Osborne's scary prediction was based on the assumption that the BoE would sit idly by and watch the sky fall in.
The BoE also don't have much scope to do anything else now either. The joker has been played already.0 -
Joelsim wrote:We haven't left yet.
To paraphrase what I said to Rick earlier, "No f*cking sh*t, Sherlock".0 -
Joelsim wrote:Wallace and Gromit wrote:Joelsim wrote:No, they weren't wrong. We had a shock initially after the vote and then the BofE intervened to steady the ship...
If the short term predictions of doom following a leave vote aren't wrong, where's the immediate recession and the collapse in house prices etc?
Your reference to BoE intervention is telling. It was pretty clear that intervention would happen if required and sensibly it has. Osborne's scary prediction was based on the assumption that the BoE would sit idly by and watch the sky fall in.
Erm. It hasn't happened yet, as has been mentioned frequently. We haven't left yet.
But the first scary predictions were for what would happen immediately after the vote, before we had left. That one was deliberately overstated. There's a chance that other predictions were also, as they would have been based on worst case scenarios in order to demonstrate the potential impact of leaving.0 -
Joelsim wrote:The BoE also don't have much scope to do anything else now either. The joker has been played already.
Helicopter money?0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:But the first scary predictions were for what would happen immediately after the vote, before we had left. That one was deliberately overstated. There's a chance that other predictions were also, as they would have been based on worst case scenarios in order to demonstrate the potential impact of leaving.
And this highlights a problem. By going "nuclear" on trying to scare us to vote to stay, the "experts" made some predictions there were highly unlikely to ever come true. That would have been fine if the vote had been to stay. But as that didn't happen, there's a lot of ammunition for the Leave side to discredit the experts who are now cautioning against a "hard" departure.
Put simply, the argument goes: The experts talked a load of b*llocks before so they're talking b*llocks again.
If the Remain side had been more sensible with its "forecasts" then there'd be less ammunition for the loony fringe of the Tory party to use to press for an immediate triggering of Article 50, before TM's ducks are aligned.0 -
As has been explained many times, those forecasts would be what was likely to happen if we left. We haven't left.0
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Joelsim wrote:As has been explained many times, those forecasts would be what was likely to happen if we left. We haven't left.
The ones that were what would be likely to happen in the first few months if we voted to leave haven't come true. Because they have been mitigated against. As has been explained about the same number of times.0 -
Joelsim wrote:As has been explained many times, those forecasts would be what was likely to happen if we left. We haven't left.
I can't put this any clearer: There were a lot of forecasts. Many were in respect of the medium to long term. I'm not commenting on these as we're not into the medium or long term. Some were in respect of what would happen immediately after a vote to leave. These are the forecasts/predictions I'm commenting on as they are wrong - the predictions of immediate recession, stock market crash and house price collapse have just not happened.
I'll say it again: I'm only commenting on the forecasts/predictions of doom immediately following a vote to leave. This refers to the period from around 5am on 24th June onwards.
And I'll say it again, just to make sure: I'm only commenting on the forecasts/predictions of doom immediately following a vote to leave. This refers to the period from around 5am on 24th June onwards.
And just to make sure you get the point: I am not commenting on forecasts of what will happen in the medium / long term when we actually commit to leaving and then actually leave. We're not in the medium term, we haven't committed to leaving and we obviously haven't left, so checking the validity of predictions related to such events is not actually possible.0 -
but we haven't left yet.Wallace and Gromit wrote:Joelsim wrote:As has been explained many times, those forecasts would be what was likely to happen if we left. We haven't left.
I can't put this any clearer: There were a lot of forecasts. Many were in respect of the medium to long term. I'm not commenting on these as we're not into the medium or long term. Some were in respect of what would happen immediately after a vote to leave. These are the forecasts/predictions I'm commenting on as they are wrong - the predictions of immediate recession, stock market crash and house price collapse have just not happened.
I'll say it again: I'm only commenting on the forecasts/predictions of doom immediately following a vote to leave. This refers to the period from around 5am on 24th June onwards.
And I'll say it again, just to make sure: I'm only commenting on the forecasts/predictions of doom immediately following a vote to leave. This refers to the period from around 5am on 24th June onwards.
And just to make sure you get the point: I am not commenting on forecasts of what will happen in the medium / long term when we actually commit to leaving and then actually leave. We're not in the medium term, we haven't committed to leaving and we obviously haven't left, so checking the validity of predictions related to such events is not actually possible.0 -
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Wallace and Gromit wrote:
Well, it's easy to show that you've understood by not quoting a forecast for having left when we haven't left. Whether you are only meaning the immediate aftermath, that was based on triggering A50 immediately, in other words we have left.
If and when we leave it may become relevant again. Until then it isn't.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Wallace and Gromit wrote:
Well, it's easy to show that you've understood by not quoting a forecast for having left when we haven't left. Whether you are only meaning the immediate aftermath, that was based on triggering A50 immediately, in other words we have left.
If and when we leave it may become relevant again. Until then it isn't.
I'm not talking about forecasts relating to when we've left. Either I've been unclear, you are just trolling or you are stupid. I apologise if the former and sympathise if the latter.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Wallace and Gromit wrote:
Well, it's easy to show that you've understood by not quoting a forecast for having left when we haven't left. Whether you are only meaning the immediate aftermath, that was based on triggering A50 immediately, in other words we have left.
If and when we leave it may become relevant again. Until then it isn't.
Where did that suddenly appear from?0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:Joelsim wrote:Wallace and Gromit wrote:
Well, it's easy to show that you've understood by not quoting a forecast for having left when we haven't left. Whether you are only meaning the immediate aftermath, that was based on triggering A50 immediately, in other words we have left.
If and when we leave it may become relevant again. Until then it isn't.
I'm not talking about forecasts relating to when we've left. Either I've been unclear, you are just trolling or you are stupid. I apologise if the former and sympathise if the latter.
i dont get where your coming from at all....
ALL the predictions were based on what DC said he would do, if he lost, he and no one else has done these things yet, so i dont see how you rubbish these forcasts, as has been said, we saw what happened when the markets did think we were leaving, to me your just being obtuse... to quote Shawshank
as for project fear failing to scare people into voting the way there were supposed..... the majority of people voted on immigration, they didnt give a 4x about "scary predictions" because many had stuff all to lose,
it was very telling when IDS rubbed his hands with glee when some northern predominantly social housing estate areas vote OUT, he knew that these people would be the back bone of the OUT voters.0 -
I admire your commitment to the cause, if not your logic. The prediction from the chancellor for what will happen "within a few weeks" was presented as if there was no other option. We now have the benefit of seeing that this was not the case because we are living in that future where it was not the only option. Is that something that can be argued?0
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Lookyhere wrote:ALL the predictions were based on what DC said...
That's why some of them were wrong. The predictions should have been based on what could plausibly happen, including events panning out differently to how DC himself predicted.0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:Lookyhere wrote:ALL the predictions were based on what DC said...
That's why some of them were wrong. The predictions should have been based on what could plausibly happen, including events panning out differently to how DC himself predicted.
this is what i actually said.... selective quoting, isnt a good way to make your argument.
ALL the predictions were based on what DC said he would do, if he lost, he and no one else has done these things yet, so i dont see how you rubbish these forcasts, as has been said, we saw what happened when the markets did think we were leaving, to me your just being obtuse... to quote Shawshank
how on earth could DC have gone into the vote saying he d quit as PM (if he lost) and that A50 wouldn't be triggered????
as i said both sides lied and i go back to the fact it is fraud and has led to a fraudulent result, with zero accountability.0 -
Lookyhere wrote:Wallace and Gromit wrote:Lookyhere wrote:ALL the predictions were based on what DC said...
That's why some of them were wrong. The predictions should have been based on what could plausibly happen, including events panning out differently to how DC himself predicted.
this is what i actually said.... selective quoting, isnt a good way to make your argument.
ALL the predictions were based on what DC said he would do, if he lost, he and no one else has done these things yet, so i dont see how you rubbish these forcasts, as has been said, we saw what happened when the markets did think we were leaving, to me your just being obtuse... to quote Shawshank
OK. Thanks. I rubbish the forecasts because they were wrong. If there was so much uncertainty that reliable forecasts couldn't be made then either the forecasts shouldn't have been made or they should have been heavily caveated, with very prominent estimation errors included.0 -
why arent you so damming of the brexitors and their £350m per week to spend on NHS or their points based system, to slash immigration ?
these had a far greater effect on the out come and were blatant lies.0 -
It's pointless trying to reason with people who twist reality to suit their purposes.0
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Lookyhere wrote:why arent you so damming of the brexitors and their £350m per week to spend on NHS or their points based system, to slash immigration ?
these had a far greater effect on the out come and were blatant lies.
I'm not really bothered about that tbh. It was clearly b*llocks by my interpretation, so it didn't affect my vote. I voted to stay as it happened. I've long since given up expecting my fellow voters to behave as I would like them to or interpret information as I would like to so, so I'd steeled myself to the possibility of a vote to leave as soon as the referendum was called.
But there's no-one here defending those claims, so damning them would be a bit pointless - everyone here would agree. And pretty much every obvious "porky" made by the Leave campaign has already been disowned. IIRC the £350m for the NHS was disowned within a few hours of the result being called. There are a few who are unable or unwilling to accept that some of the predictions made by the Remain campaign were simply wrong, hence my interest in debating the subject.
It's all from an academic viewpoint. Sh*t regularly happens at the ballot box and you just have to make the best of it, however bad it may be, so I'm not trying to justify to myself or others that the result is "wrong" or that the referendum is invalid or that we should use all available means to ignore the result, as some (well Joel) seem to want to do.0 -
Joelsim wrote:It's pointless trying to reason with people who twist reality to suit their purposes.
If that's aimed at me I'm simply highlighting reality not twisting it. Sorry if it doesn't fit with your world view.0 -
Wallace and Gromit wrote:Lookyhere wrote:why arent you so damming of the brexitors and their £350m per week to spend on NHS or their points based system, to slash immigration ?
these had a far greater effect on the out come and were blatant lies.
I'm not really bothered about that tbh. It was clearly b*llocks by my interpretation, so it didn't affect my vote. I voted to stay as it happened. I've long since given up expecting my fellow voters to behave as I would like them to or interpret information as I would like to so, so I'd steeled myself to the possibility of a vote to leave as soon as the referendum was called.
But there's no-one here defending those claims, so damning them would be a bit pointless - everyone here would agree. And pretty much every obvious "porky" made by the Leave campaign has already been disowned. IIRC the £350m for the NHS was disowned within a few hours of the result being called. There are a few who are unable or unwilling to accept that some of the predictions made by the Remain campaign were simply wrong, hence my interest in debating the subject.
It's all from an academic viewpoint. Sh*t regularly happens at the ballot box and you just have to make the best of it, however bad it may be, so I'm not trying to justify to myself or others that the result is "wrong" or that the referendum is invalid or that we should use all available means to ignore the result, as some (well Joel) seem to want to do.
The predictions aren't wrong. They were based on analysis of what would be the likely outcomes if we were to leave.
We haven't left yet. For the umpteenth time. I'm beginning to think you're a bit thick.0 -
Joelsim wrote:
It really is a shame that Parliament wasn't paying attention when the referendum bill went through the HoC and the HoL. A few minor tweaks re turnout threshold and a super-majority and the referendum would all be a distant memory and Cameron would be best buddies with JCJ. I'm not sure they deserve a second chance, tbh.
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