BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    Also worth reminding everyone of the difference between polls before an election is announced and the final result.

    Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    Update from Tony Connelly

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/092 ... od-brexit/
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Update from Tony Connelly

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/092 ... od-brexit/
    It doesn't dispel the impression that the UK is asking for things it knows the EU & Irish won't accept.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • crispybug2
    crispybug2 Posts: 2,915
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Emily Thornberry wrote:
    The Lib Dems have gotten kind of Taliban, haven’t they? They’ve said they’re just going to revoke, there’s not going to be another referendum.
    Tim Farron
    @timfarron
    Come on Emily, if we really were like a Middle East terrorist group, don’t you think Jeremy would’ve invited us to a conference fringe meeting before now?


    Ouch!
  • bikes_and_dogs
    bikes_and_dogs Posts: 130
    Robert88 wrote:
    Bikes and dogs wrote:
    Hi Ian Blackford and Nicola Sturgeon. As a born and bred Glaswegian now living in England - I am insulted that you claim a mandate to stop us leaving the EU on behalf of all Scots. (Oh sorry - should I have used your sound-bite "CRASHING OUT"?)
    There are no constituencies in a referendum. You were on the wrong side of the biggest democratic vote in British history.
    Pipe down.

    The biggest confidence trick in British history is what you really mean.

    Anyway, we are not destined to get out of this mess. It's the end game all right: in the decline and fall of the British Empire. The break up of the UK is inevitable. Stop moaning and accept the inevitable, pal. You will be sent back Glasgow in due course.

    You make a lot of points, though there may be a stewards enquiry as to whether I should "be sent back to Glasgow" - my mum was English.
    I have a cunning plan. Sir Dave Brailsford should be put in charge of the wind farms. Marginal gains, low friction, energy efficiency, wind resistance, maximum watts. Within 10 years we'll be knocking out kick ass wind turbines. People trying to sell fossil fuels will be so old hat. It'll be like the industrial revolution all over again.

    The Empire will be saved.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Oh dear

    EE7a_w4XUAAwwE_?format=jpg&name=small
    _
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    EE5d1wBUEAMGw39?format=png&name=small
    _
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,408
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,408
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    They haven’t.

    Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.
    _
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    They haven’t.

    Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.

    So is Brexit. Just in case we forget :lol:
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    They haven’t.

    Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.

    It wasn't. The UK wide backstop was the UK's idea. The NI only backstop which came first was the EU's idea. The problem being that it is not consistent with the GFA/BA.
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    They haven’t.

    Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.

    It wasn't. The UK wide backstop was the UK's idea. The NI only backstop which came first was the EU's idea. The problem being that it is not consistent with the GFA/BA.

    That is a simplistic (Brexiteer) interpretation touted by Johnson.

    Unfortunately any peace in Ireland is underpinned by the UK being in the EU. As Maggie would have said: "there is no alternative" (TINA).

    Other than to renegotiate the so-called Good Friday Agreement.

    That'd be fun, and I am sure Johnson would commit to doing it before the end of the month if it furthered his career.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,408
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    They haven’t.

    Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.
    We are talking about alternatives to the backstop now - in case you forgot, the deal with the backbackstop was rejected 3 times by parliament.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,408
    PBlakeney wrote:
    That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.
    So what's your idea?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.
    So what's your idea?

    If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    Brexit: You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    Nevertheless the ball is in our court as the prime minister has accepted.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Westminster Voting Intention

    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 23% (+4)
    LAB: 21% (-2)
    BXP: 14% (=)
    GRN: 4% (-3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    .
    Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


    That's a nice wee bounce.

    Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

    Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now

    Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

    (Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)


    Ok not quite right

    YouGov - 2019-09-18
    Con: 32%
    LDem: 23%
    Lab: 21%
    BRX: 14%
    Grn: 4%
    SNP: 4%
    PC: 1%
    UKIP: 1%

    Flavible Projection
    CON: 331 (+13)
    LAB: 155 (-107)
    LDEM: 88 (+76)
    SNP: 51 (+16)
    PC: 6 (+2)
    GRN: 1 (-)
    Changes w/ 2017

    So the Tories go down 10% of the vote and up 13 seats. That seems fair.

    To me it seems grossly offensive that LDs should beat Labour by % and end up with less than 60% the number of seats Labour has.

    System is utterly f*cked.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    They haven’t.

    Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.
    We are talking about alternatives to the backstop now - in case you forgot, the deal with the backbackstop was rejected 3 times by parliament.

    Yeah so it’s the U.K. rejecting everything. Glad that’s cleared up.

    All the suggestions since the WA from the U.K. are nonesense as they require the EU to either fully undermine its entire premise, or don’t solve the problem.
    _
  • cowsham
    cowsham Posts: 1,399
    Heard that Boris Johnston has been insulted and shouted at in a different place each day this week.
    He should have stayed at home with his girlfriend.
    :D
  • secretsam
    secretsam Posts: 5,120
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...
    I seem to recall it was us who wanted to leave.
    They don't have to make it easy, or fair.
    And they have their own citizens and interests to protect.
    Plus... most of our proposals have been unworkable. Or destroyed the GFA, which the EU underwrote.
    It's just a hill. Get over it.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,408
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Shirley Basso wrote:
    What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

    Hard border innit.
    If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

    First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.
    That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.

    They haven’t.

    Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.
    We are talking about alternatives to the backstop now - in case you forgot, the deal with the backbackstop was rejected 3 times by parliament.

    Yeah so it’s the U.K. rejecting everything. Glad that’s cleared up.

    All the suggestions since the WA from the U.K. are nonesense as they require the EU to either fully undermine its entire premise, or don’t solve the problem.
    Rock and a hard place really unless one side gives, which looks unlikely at present (unless there is some change on the UK political front) - as there's no real overlap between the EU and UK positions on the Irish issue. Hence my guess of a 50% chance of a no deal.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    For fear of repetition.
    It's a basic logic problem.
    You either have regulatory alignment across the entire island of Ireland or across the whole of the UK. The decision made there dictates where the regulatory border is. On land or in the sea.
    A=B
    B=C
    A<>C
    is a logical fallacy.

    A = Laws of Mainland GB
    B = Laws of NI
    C = Laws of Eire

    Compromise is always an option but it seems it is OK for ERG and Dup to refuse to compromise but not for EU.

    Sea border is the simple solution if you remove emotion from the equation but this is Brexit.
  • shortfall
    shortfall Posts: 3,288
    edited September 2019
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.
    So what's your idea?

    If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.

    This seems eminently sensible and would allow a resonable compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?

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