Scottish nationalists- a dodged bullet
Comments
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Rick Chasey wrote:Sure, but Scotland can't help it has such a large amount of oil in its territory can it?
It is what it is. Sure you want diversification, but if it's a small country and it's a large amount of oil, there's not much you can do.
You need to make predictions on future tax revenues at some point in order to plan for the future and invest etc.
Go to do it somehow. You build in the price risk into your model - you can take on a big oil hedge if you really want (though all you'd do that is make the criticism inverse to the price of oil in essence).
Just the way it is. Criticising Scotland for having lots of oil is a bit like criticising Switzerland for not having any coastline.
Obtuse doesn't cover it does it?
NO ONE HAS CRITISISED SCOTLAND FOR HAVING OIL.
People are just pointing out the obvious. If you are so reliant on one commodity, you are equally reliant on its price.0 -
Ballysmate wrote:
People are just pointing out the obvious. If you are so reliant on one commodity, you are equally reliant on its price.
Well yes.
Duh. No sh!t.
What's your point?0 -
bompington wrote:
Not for the Scots, it wouldn't. Nor the rest of the UK, actually, for all the "better off rid of them" stuff, the whole UK would actually be diminished. In fact, the only people who would benefit would be the SNP nomenklatura.SoloSuperia wrote:I think the best outcome would have been for the Scots to have got their independence
Don't get me wrong, I agree that both the Scots and the UK would be diminished.......... But I think quite frequently in the future the question of a referendum will surface and in the end the SNP will get its way.
I'll add a codacil.... Unless there is some enormous foul up by the SNP.0 -
That Scotland doesn't currently have to rely on oil but 45% of Scots want Indepence which would result in relying on oil, which is a bit silly.Rick Chasey wrote:Ballysmate wrote:
People are just pointing out the obvious. If you are so reliant on one commodity, you are equally reliant on its price.
Well yes.
Duh. No sh!t.
What's your point?Pinno, מלך אידיוט וחרא מכונאי0 -
seanoconn wrote:
That Scotland doesn't currently have to rely on oil but 45% of Scots want Indepence which would result in relying on oil, which is a bit silly.Rick Chasey wrote:Ballysmate wrote:
People are just pointing out the obvious. If you are so reliant on one commodity, you are equally reliant on its price.
Well yes.
Duh. No sh!t.
What's your point?
You guys are just thinking about tax rev.
That's only part of the picture.
you're looking at GDP - all the guys who work and live in Scotland who run the rigs, who help drill it out of the ground, transport it, refine it etc etc - theyre all exposed to the price of oil and that stays the same if you are part of the Uk or not.
That's what really gets affected. Tax revenues - that's only part of it.
Tax revenues are related to GDP but they aren't the same AS GDP.
Scotland gets hit if it's part of the UK or not. Sure, the rest of the UK gov't can assist with counter-cycle spending, but does it? I don't know - but Scotland could probably do that anyway after a cycle too if it managed the oil rev's properly.
It's moot.0 -
Prices go up and prices go down.
A degree in economics doesn't give you the ability to see into the future. They're not oracles. They can't accurately predict oil prices in the future. If they did, they wouldn't be in politics.
Criticising a government for not knowing that the world was going to see one of the largest oil price crashes in recent memory is a bit much, given no-one relevant saw it coming at the moment it did.You need to make predictions on future tax revenues at some point in order to plan for the future and invest etc.
Nice trick if you can do it with a wildly swinging priced commodity and then run your economy accordingly eh Rick?0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:seanoconn wrote:
That Scotland doesn't currently have to rely on oil but 45% of Scots want Indepence which would result in relying on oil, which is a bit silly.Rick Chasey wrote:Ballysmate wrote:
People are just pointing out the obvious. If you are so reliant on one commodity, you are equally reliant on its price.
Well yes.
Duh. No sh!t.
What's your point?
You guys are just thinking about tax rev.
That's only part of the picture.
you're looking at GDP - all the guys who work and live in Scotland who run the rigs, who help drill it out of the ground, transport it, refine it etc etc - theyre all exposed to the price of oil and that stays the same if you are part of the Uk or not.
That's what really gets affected. Tax revenues - that's only part of it.
Tax revenues are related to GDP but they aren't the same AS GDP.
Scotland gets hit if it's part of the UK or not. Sure, the rest of the UK gov't can assist with counter-cycle spending, but does it? I don't know - but Scotland could probably do that anyway after a cycle too if it managed the oil rev's properly.
It's moot.
As you say Rick, the workers in the oil industry would be affected. Low oil price, subsequent low investment and development. Cuts in production as North Sea oil is expensive to extract so why extract something with a falling value? Ultimately lay offs and consequentially benefit payments from the Scottish purse. So that's more expense to add to Scotland falling tax take.
A dodged bullet - I'd say so.0 -
Looks like the English are being stitched up though.
The EVEL don't look to be going far enough.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ament.html0 -
Ballysmate wrote:Not Scots bashing at all. I feel both Scotland and UK benefits from the Union. That said, if Scotland had decided YES then fine, go your own way. My problem was the fiction presented as fact by the SNP.
As I said earlier they had 40 years to prepare for the moment and produced a white paper that didn't bear scrutiny.
Scotland and its people deserved better.
That's a good point. The answer, not often stated during the referendum, is that people are mainly the same, so given support an opportunity they will succeed. The unknown is how long it would take. Scots generally are more left of centre and more egalitarian. But they don't pay enough lip service to business and revenue generation.
I wonder if it has the energy to see it through when there's so much aged and crumbling infrastructure.
I reckon Scotland under independence would have a tough 20 years and would have to roll back its welfare, etc. big time. People were wanting absolute certainty about the future and total continuity with the present but really some degree of risk taking is unavoidable and the outcome and the future are in their hands.
I have seen a lot of elections and referenda in my time but the Scots independence one was by far the most
impressive exercise in democracy I've seen.0 -
Could it be claimed that Alex Salmond is a genius for timing the referendum to occur just before the oil crash?
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
About the time of the referendum there was a news interview with various Scottish accademics. A sort of round up of the situation with special discussion on English v Scots differences politically. An academic from the University of Strathclyde was summarising research into such matters, answering the Interviewer;s questions with summaries of relevent research papers that have been published in recent years.
One of the comments by the interviewer was just what the post before last mentioned, Scots were more left of centre and egalitarian than the English. Her reply was interesting and quoted a specific set of research into this, a review of previously published polls (I guess a combining of data and the subsequent analysis).
Turns out in these surveys the Scots were more left of centre in what they said they wished for and also more egalitatian or for the "greater good" than the English. However analysis of what they did in practise or their actual voting and the policies that won their vote they were actually not too far from the English.
It seems the research into it shows that Scots believe they are more left wing/socialist, egalitarian and community spirited but the truth is they are not any different. Or at least not significantly different. What she also said is that English views on themselves are closer to the truth but Scots are wider off the mark, i.e. they talk the talk about egality but are almost as out for themselves as the rest of us.
Please do not have a go at me for paraphrasing the comments of that academic. I have no way of knowing if it is true but I think she quoted references in her comments so if you could find out which radio show it was off and if it was online somewhere you could trace the papers she mentioned. I personally think Scots have some things right and some things wrong. Not my place to say what since out of our 4 nations Scottish blood is the only one I have none of in my ancestry.
BTW Oil is not their whole economy so why the fixation. As long as part of the Union oil price is not an issue. There are other more pressing issues IMHO such as the life expectancy is lower and it is often mentioned that Scotland has a higher level of lifestyle conditions (heart attacks and the like). Couldn;t find the data to link to but saw some NAO report from probably 2012 which had a 2-3 year drop in life expectancy at birth in Scotland compared to England. England spends about 2% more money on health as a percentage of total public spending. Scotland has 10 more GPs per 100,000 population than England but they are paid about £20k less average taxable income. A right bunch of positives and negatives in that report I have to say but it does surprise me that in the 2009-2011 period England spent more on health as a precentage of public spending than the more left leaning Scots. Hmmm! what do you make of that?
Sorry for going right off topic.0 -
Holy thread resurrection Batman!
A question for forumites north of the border who are presumably more in the know about these goings on. Wtf is going on with the Salmond enquiry?
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/alex-salmond-inquiry-why-any-witnesses-who-lie-msps-inquiry-should-be-worried-brian-wilson-3110056
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2766001/salmond-inquiry-2/
https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/news-special-alex-salmond-challenges-accuracy-of-snp-chief-peter-murrell-sworn-evidence-to-holyrood-inquiry/
Sturgeon being contradicted by her husband about the nature of meetings.
Officials being pressurised to alter dates on documents.
Although witnesses are under oath, it appears that they have no fear of being charged with perjury if their evidence is shown to be false. They just get the chance to "clarify".
Peter Murrell suggesting that it was a good time to pressurise police into investigating Salmond
The list goes on.
I have no fondness for Big Eck, but get the feeling he has been the target of a stitch up.1 -
People that lie in court are generally arrogant enough to believe they will get away with it. The cost benefit analysis of a perjury sentence which are steep factors low on their priority list. It should not but it does for a lot of people.1
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Not sure how many people are following it. She can stand up and claim that England is to blame for a lack of rain in Skye and most of the plebs would believe her at the moment.1
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On another note, the SNP are on target for an increase of 6 seats in the May Scottish parliament election.0
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There will be an illegitimate referendum, that is almost certain.elbowloh said:On another note, the SNP are on target for an increase of 6 seats in the May Scottish parliament election.
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First.Aspect said:
There will be an illegitimate referendum, that is almost certain.elbowloh said:On another note, the SNP are on target for an increase of 6 seats in the May Scottish parliament election.
So it would appear.
If Westminster don't recognise it, what is next step for SNP?0 -
1. Huff and puff about self determination.ballysmate said:First.Aspect said:
There will be an illegitimate referendum, that is almost certain.elbowloh said:On another note, the SNP are on target for an increase of 6 seats in the May Scottish parliament election.
So it would appear.
If Westminster don't recognise it, what is next step for SNP?
2. Take UK government to court.
3. Run a referendum.
4. Win by miles because one half won't vote.
5. Lose in court.
6. Totally fcuk up the economy and investment in Scotland for another 5 years.
7. Say earnest things about waiting times and bringing the drung problem down.
8. Blame the UK for the economic situation.
Broadly in that order.1 -
Not sure on the run your own referendum bit.
There is a recent precedent for that path backing you into an impossible corner.
Also makes you look a bit banana republic when Scotland’s current upper hand is that Westminster is run like a banana republic.0 -
Hard to say. There are a lot of loonies in the SNP. What we get to see are extreme nationalists dressed up in reasonable clothing.morstar said:Not sure on the run your own referendum bit.
There is a recent precedent for that path backing you into an impossible corner.
Also makes you look a bit banana republic when Scotland’s current upper hand is that Westminster is run like a banana republic.
But this is the party that is destabilising their country in the middle of the most acute health crisis in a century, the most acute recession in history and a fortnight after a Brexit deal came into effect, the results of which we don't yet know. So there is clearly a lot of pressure to do something, anything.
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the SNP is the gift that keeps on giving, especially now the trump show season one is finished.
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its already de stabalised it. theyve been sowing lies, misinformation and resentment for years. Their once enviable education systems has dissapeared, the financial competence of the SNP / Scottish government is non existant and with no one to oppose them they make up ridiculous badly thought through laws to prosecute political rivals.First.Aspect said:
Hard to say. There are a lot of loonies in the SNP. What we get to see are extreme nationalists dressed up in reasonable clothing.morstar said:Not sure on the run your own referendum bit.
There is a recent precedent for that path backing you into an impossible corner.
Also makes you look a bit banana republic when Scotland’s current upper hand is that Westminster is run like a banana republic.
But this is the party that is destabilising their country in the middle of the most acute health crisis in a century, the most acute recession in history and a fortnight after a Brexit deal came into effect, the results of which we don't yet know. So there is clearly a lot of pressure to do something, anything.
Sturgeon ran their health department and over saw the metoric rise of the drug and health problems of Scotland, they have a much bigger budget per head for the things theyre responsible for and yet, their problems have got worse not better under SNP rule.
AND yet, despite all that, the dissent, bitterness and resentment that that harridan sows means the SNP continue. A highly successful politician on that measure. A vile deceitful sow on all others.
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Sounds more like a failure of other parties and the UK government from failing to offer a coherent counter message.0
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Also a massive own goal to make promises in indyref 1 that the government then broke almost immediately. If the SNPs message was all about lying by the London government, then the Tories did their work for them.0
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Since the SNP are so keen on the EU, maybe Westminster should follow the latest EU example of dealing with an illegitimate referendum, I.e. how Spain dealt with the leaders of the Catalan administration? WJK might look quite fetching an orange jumpsuit with arrows.First.Aspect said:
There will be an illegitimate referendum, that is almost certain.elbowloh said:On another note, the SNP are on target for an increase of 6 seats in the May Scottish parliament election.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
Declare war on England then quickly realise no one gives a sh1t either in Scotland or abroad. The Scottish people fluffed their chance last time and the landscape has made an independent Scotland's argument weaker from an already questionable position.ballysmate said:First.Aspect said:
There will be an illegitimate referendum, that is almost certain.elbowloh said:On another note, the SNP are on target for an increase of 6 seats in the May Scottish parliament election.
So it would appear.
If Westminster don't recognise it, what is next step for SNP?0 -
You sound like a remainer. Just swap out SNP for Brexiters.david37 said:
its already de stabalised it. theyve been sowing lies, misinformation and resentment for years. Their once enviable education systems has dissapeared, the financial competence of the SNP / Scottish government is non existant and with no one to oppose them they make up ridiculous badly thought through laws to prosecute political rivals.First.Aspect said:
Hard to say. There are a lot of loonies in the SNP. What we get to see are extreme nationalists dressed up in reasonable clothing.morstar said:Not sure on the run your own referendum bit.
There is a recent precedent for that path backing you into an impossible corner.
Also makes you look a bit banana republic when Scotland’s current upper hand is that Westminster is run like a banana republic.
But this is the party that is destabilising their country in the middle of the most acute health crisis in a century, the most acute recession in history and a fortnight after a Brexit deal came into effect, the results of which we don't yet know. So there is clearly a lot of pressure to do something, anything.
Sturgeon ran their health department and over saw the metoric rise of the drug and health problems of Scotland, they have a much bigger budget per head for the things theyre responsible for and yet, their problems have got worse not better under SNP rule.
AND yet, despite all that, the dissent, bitterness and resentment that that harridan sows means the SNP continue. A highly successful politician on that measure. A vile deceitful sow on all others.
It is the same logic to them to leave the U.K. as it is for the U.K. to leave Europe.
How can you not see this.
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How can you not see the yawning gulf in competence between the UK parliament institutions and government and that in Scotland. Now you might say democracy is democracy but theyve had a vote and the vote was UK not independence.rick_chasey said:
You sound like a remainer. Just swap out SNP for Brexiters.david37 said:
its already de stabalised it. theyve been sowing lies, misinformation and resentment for years. Their once enviable education systems has dissapeared, the financial competence of the SNP / Scottish government is non existant and with no one to oppose them they make up ridiculous badly thought through laws to prosecute political rivals.First.Aspect said:
Hard to say. There are a lot of loonies in the SNP. What we get to see are extreme nationalists dressed up in reasonable clothing.morstar said:Not sure on the run your own referendum bit.
There is a recent precedent for that path backing you into an impossible corner.
Also makes you look a bit banana republic when Scotland’s current upper hand is that Westminster is run like a banana republic.
But this is the party that is destabilising their country in the middle of the most acute health crisis in a century, the most acute recession in history and a fortnight after a Brexit deal came into effect, the results of which we don't yet know. So there is clearly a lot of pressure to do something, anything.
Sturgeon ran their health department and over saw the metoric rise of the drug and health problems of Scotland, they have a much bigger budget per head for the things theyre responsible for and yet, their problems have got worse not better under SNP rule.
AND yet, despite all that, the dissent, bitterness and resentment that that harridan sows means the SNP continue. A highly successful politician on that measure. A vile deceitful sow on all others.
It is the same logic to them to leave the U.K. as it is for the U.K. to leave Europe.
How can you not see this.
Scotlands devolved nepotistic government and operations are like those of a crap unitary authority. (see the fanny doctor as a good example)
I can see that a democratic vote is not something that sways you.
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You misunderstand me.
I’m not talking about the ref.
I’m saying the logic of Brexit and the logic of Scottish independence is extremely similar so I find it really weird you want to keep Scotland in the U.K. but support Brexit.
And I will ignore your comment about English competence vs Scottish - that is not very safe ground at all.0 -
Are you saying the UK government isn't nepotistic?david37 said:
How can you not see the yawning gulf in competence between the UK parliament institutions and government and that in Scotland. Now you might say democracy is democracy but theyve had a vote and the vote was UK not independence.rick_chasey said:
You sound like a remainer. Just swap out SNP for Brexiters.david37 said:
its already de stabalised it. theyve been sowing lies, misinformation and resentment for years. Their once enviable education systems has dissapeared, the financial competence of the SNP / Scottish government is non existant and with no one to oppose them they make up ridiculous badly thought through laws to prosecute political rivals.First.Aspect said:
Hard to say. There are a lot of loonies in the SNP. What we get to see are extreme nationalists dressed up in reasonable clothing.morstar said:Not sure on the run your own referendum bit.
There is a recent precedent for that path backing you into an impossible corner.
Also makes you look a bit banana republic when Scotland’s current upper hand is that Westminster is run like a banana republic.
But this is the party that is destabilising their country in the middle of the most acute health crisis in a century, the most acute recession in history and a fortnight after a Brexit deal came into effect, the results of which we don't yet know. So there is clearly a lot of pressure to do something, anything.
Sturgeon ran their health department and over saw the metoric rise of the drug and health problems of Scotland, they have a much bigger budget per head for the things theyre responsible for and yet, their problems have got worse not better under SNP rule.
AND yet, despite all that, the dissent, bitterness and resentment that that harridan sows means the SNP continue. A highly successful politician on that measure. A vile deceitful sow on all others.
It is the same logic to them to leave the U.K. as it is for the U.K. to leave Europe.
How can you not see this.
Scotlands devolved nepotistic government and operations are like those of a censored unitary authority. (see the fanny doctor as a good example)
I can see that a democratic vote is not something that sways you.
Where the feck have you been. How many friends of ministers and MPs received lucrative COVID contracts, often with no experience in the field. Who got appointed to big, new jobs heading up agencies?
When we talk about competence, how many of our government have been sacked previously from ministerial and other roles for either lying or for just being shit (the PM included)?0
