TDF 2015 - ***Parcours Officiel***

DeVlaeminck

RichN95 wrote:

mulletmaster wrote:

Froome is stupidly short priced for that route. Would have him as 3rd or 4th favourite really.

He's basically the same odds as Contador and Quintana, which is about right as they're pretty well matched climbers. Nibali rightly over double the odds in fourth as I don't think he's ever beaten any of the other three up a mountain.

Can't disagree with that. I can understand Froome being disappointed with the lack of a decent TT but I'd still have him as slight favourite whatever his protests.

kingstonian

RichN95 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Cav must be delighted.....

Here's a no guts no glory early prediction. Cavendish wins the cobbled stage to Cambrai and takes the yellow jersey.

I can see him winning the first stage from Utrecht to Zeeland. The finish is dead flat, dead straight, as long as the wind is calm it is perfect for him and his team can give him a great lead-out.

And I'll be there to see the finish !!!

Brailsford Bad

I think the designer just whacked his ruler across a map of France and drew a line at the top, then drew a line at the bottom, sat back and went " oui..magnifique!!", lit a Gauloises, had a coffee and threw it at Prudhomme who gave it the thumbs up.

andyp

I think Joaquim Rodriguez designed it.

salsiccia1

andyp wrote:

I think Joaquim Rodriguez designed it.

If he managed to win it then I'd say it was worth the underwhelming route. I really hope he wins a GT before he finishes.

thegibdog

So bonus seconds will have more of a bearing on the outcome than time trials??

calvjones

thegibdog wrote:

So bonus seconds will have more of a bearing on the outcome than time trials??

Yep. Cue lots of GT contenders doing track stands for the last 3K of MTFs.

RichN95.

calvjones wrote:

thegibdog wrote:

So bonus seconds will have more of a bearing on the outcome than time trials??

Yep. Cue lots of GT contenders doing track stands for the last 3K of MTFs.

There's only bonus seconds for the first week. (Which I think is fair enough - gives an opportunity for more YJ wearers)

cal_stewart

First week looks great. Weeks 2 and 3 is a bit s........

DeVlaeminck

For those that don't like the route, is it just the lack of a long time trial or something else? Doesn't look that climbing heavy to me - obviously the lack of a TT favours the climbers who can't TT but compared to most modern Tours it's not a huge amount of MTFs. The first week looks good and for me that kind of parcours is the real test of an all round rider and the the lumpy stages between the Pyrenees and Alps look OK too. The stage from Gap (I think) looks a really interesting finish with that narrow road full of hairpins close to the finish, 19 offers plenty and whatever you think of the Alpe it has a certain entertainment value.

florerider

Seems to be a Vuelta linked theme to not liking it. Personally I thought the Vuelta a better race for the past few years.

Suspect there is an element of wanting to break the time trialling attitude to everything and make it more race tactics than power meters.

Watching French TV last night - seems to be a popular route here.

RichN95.

DeVlaeminck wrote:

For those that don't like the route, is it just the lack of a long time trial or something else? Doesn't look that climbing heavy to me - obviously the lack of a TT favours the climbers who can't TT but compared to most modern Tours it's not a huge amount of MTFs.

Modern cycling, indeed modern sport, tends to have conservative tactics. It's about making the fewest mistakes, not about bold gambles. Time trialling in itself is boring but it is devoid of interpersonal tactics, so it ensures gaps between contenders - gaps which need to be recouped elsewhere. And that encourages attacking in the mountains. It is particularly useful to have the TT near the end so the gaps are anticipated rather than real.
However, with a modern record number of MTFs, and no counterbalance, the emphasis for the rider becomes staying in contention for as long as possible - and that means not really making a move until the last 3km at most.

And add into this a first week which promotes nervousness and crashes, thereby reducing the chances of the big names even making it to the headline stages again. And a TTT which is so late that it will be decided by the injury list rather than talent.

salsiccia1

florerider wrote:

Watching French TV last night - seems to be a popular route here.

I'll bet it is, it's giving Peraud and Pinot their best shot.

salsiccia1

RichN95 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

For those that don't like the route, is it just the lack of a long time trial or something else? Doesn't look that climbing heavy to me - obviously the lack of a TT favours the climbers who can't TT but compared to most modern Tours it's not a huge amount of MTFs.

Modern cycling, indeed modern sport, tends to have conservative tactics. It's about making the fewest mistakes, not about bold gambles. Time trialling in itself is boring but it is devoid of interpersonal tactics, so it ensures gaps between contenders - gaps which need to be recouped elsewhere. And that encourages attacking in the mountains. It is particularly useful to have the TT near the end so the gaps are anticipated rather than real.
However, with a modern record number of MTFs, and no counterbalance, the emphasis for the rider becomes staying in contention for as long as possible - and that means not really making a move until the last 3km at most.

And add into this a first week which promotes nervousness and crashes, thereby reducing the chances of the big names even making it to the headline stages again. And a TTT which is so late that it will be decided by the injury list rather than talent.

All this.

tailwindhome

If Dan Martin is ever going to win a Tour it's this one.

The_Boy

Salsiccia1 wrote:

florerider wrote:

Watching French TV last night - seems to be a popular route here.

I'll bet it is, it's giving Peraud and Pinot their best shot.

Peraud is a Time Trialler who can climb, he has already expressed his disappointment at the lack of TT kms. Pinot, while not a specialist, performed fine on the 54km TT this year - and still has plenty of scope for improvement.

edit: not to mention the fact that the TTT helps neither of them.

If the parcours favours anyone, it's Rodriguez.

above_the_cows

Well I have already got my wishes in early for a stiff north westerly or south easterly breeze for stage 2...

Mad_Malx

RichN95 wrote:

Modern cycling, indeed modern sport, tends to have conservative tactics. It's about making the fewest mistakes, not about bold gambles.

I was watching 'Slaying the Badger' last week and thinking exactly this - I know that looking at exceptional races is not an unbiased sample, but in that era leads appeared to move by minutes on an almost daily basis. Power meters, race radios and scientific approaches to nutrition have a lot to answer for.
I think we need a graph showing stage time gaps against years.

DeVlaeminck

RichN95 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

For those that don't like the route, is it just the lack of a long time trial or something else? Doesn't look that climbing heavy to me - obviously the lack of a TT favours the climbers who can't TT but compared to most modern Tours it's not a huge amount of MTFs.

Modern cycling, indeed modern sport, tends to have conservative tactics. It's about making the fewest mistakes, not about bold gambles. Time trialling in itself is boring but it is devoid of interpersonal tactics, so it ensures gaps between contenders - gaps which need to be recouped elsewhere. And that encourages attacking in the mountains. It is particularly useful to have the TT near the end so the gaps are anticipated rather than real.
However, with a modern record number of MTFs, and no counterbalance, the emphasis for the rider becomes staying in contention for as long as possible - and that means not really making a move until the last 3km at most.

And add into this a first week which promotes nervousness and crashes, thereby reducing the chances of the big names even making it to the headline stages again. And a TTT which is so late that it will be decided by the injury list rather than talent.

I disagree. I want to see a GC where the contenders are close - that encourages them to attack because there is a chance of winning. If Froome takes 90 seconds on a flat TT then everyone else (possibly bar Contador) rides for second place. If the TT comes after the mountains all that happens is riders believe that maybe they can pull something out of the bag in the TT - it also neutralises at least the preceding stage as riders need to go into it as fresh as possible. In the last two decades all TTs have done most often is reinforce the advantage of the guy that went on to win. Of course it's possible to go the other way but history suggests more often than not a TT kills rather than opens up the race.

frenchfighter

From someone over on WW:

RichN95.

DeVlaeminck wrote:

I disagree. I want to see a GC where the contenders are close - that encourages them to attack because there is a chance of winning. If Froome takes 90 seconds on a flat TT then everyone else (possibly bar Contador) rides for second place. If the TT comes after the mountains all that happens is riders believe that maybe they can pull something out of the bag in the TT - it also neutralises at least the preceding stage as riders need to go into it as fresh as possible. In the last two decades all TTs have done most often is reinforce the advantage of the guy that went on to win. Of course it's possible to go the other way but history suggests more often than not a TT kills rather than opens up the race.

OK. Here's a case study. The 2014 Tour of Catalunya. That race had no time trial. But it did have a Cat 1 MTF finish and an Hors Cat MTF. (You can see the full parcours here: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread ... =catalunya ).

And there was a stella field - best of the year perhaps . Contador, Froome, Rodriguez, Quintana, Talansky, Bardet and Van Garderen were the eventual top seven....

So what happened? Well there was next to no attacking. Everyone watched each other. On the first MTF a front group of around 30 went under the red kite. It's harder to say what happened on the second MTF (no footage), but the first seven were within five seconds (and Van Garderen won). The whole race passed without an attack from a major player and the top seven were separated by just 18 seconds. The race was a dud.

The_Boy

What did it have in the way of crosswinds, cobbles and muurs, though?

I expect that the route will lead to conservative racing from the heads of state as nobodyhas the balls to go for broke, but I also imagine that a lot more riders who might not usually be in contention will be drawn into the fight for yellow - *possibly* making for a race that is harder to control.

RichN95.

Mad_Malx wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Modern cycling, indeed modern sport, tends to have conservative tactics. It's about making the fewest mistakes, not about bold gambles.

I was watching 'Slaying the Badger' last week and thinking exactly this - I know that looking at exceptional races is not an unbiased sample, but in that era leads appeared to move by minutes on an almost daily basis. Power meters, race radios and scientific approaches to nutrition have a lot to answer for.
I think we need a graph showing stage time gaps against years.

It's also something to bear in mind when people talk about power estimates on climbs. These days typically a group of over 50 will reach the bottom of the final climb and then it will be run as a paced negative split time trial (usually paced by Sky). And this produces relatively higher numbers than the older tactics of making a tougher selection in the lead-up that you would see in Armstrong/Landis/Rasmussen days

anjasola

I am trying to find a more detailed route map of the tour but not having much joy, can anyone help please?

Thanks

RichN95.

anjasola wrote:

I am trying to find a more detailed route map of the tour but not having much joy, can anyone help please?

Thanks

The detailed ones don't usually come out until a month or two before the race.

blazing_saddles

RichN95 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

I disagree. I want to see a GC where the contenders are close - that encourages them to attack because there is a chance of winning. If Froome takes 90 seconds on a flat TT then everyone else (possibly bar Contador) rides for second place. If the TT comes after the mountains all that happens is riders believe that maybe they can pull something out of the bag in the TT - it also neutralises at least the preceding stage as riders need to go into it as fresh as possible. In the last two decades all TTs have done most often is reinforce the advantage of the guy that went on to win. Of course it's possible to go the other way but history suggests more often than not a TT kills rather than opens up the race.

OK. Here's a case study. The 2014 Tour of Catalunya. That race had no time trial. But it did have a Cat 1 MTF finish and an Hors Cat MTF. (You can see the full parcours here: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread ... =catalunya ).

And there was a stella field - best of the year perhaps . Contador, Froome, Rodriguez, Quintana, Talansky, Bardet and Van Garderen were the eventual top seven....

So what happened? Well there was next to no attacking. Everyone watched each other. On the first MTF a front group of around 30 went under the red kite. It's harder to say what happened on the second MTF (no footage), but the first seven were within five seconds (and Van Garderen won). The whole race passed without an attack from a major player and the top seven were separated by just 18 seconds. The race was a dud.

All true, Rich and I agree with your earlier post, but there is a direct counter to this.

Rarely the most exciting race on the calendar and always including a marathon ITT.
What happened when the Dauphine opened with a glorified prologue of 10kms this year?
Best stage race of the season.

RichN95.

Blazing Saddles wrote:

All true, Rich and I agree with your earlier post, but there is a direct counter to this.

Rarely the most exciting race on the calendar and always including a marathon ITT.
What happened when the Dauphine opened with a glorified prologue of 10kms this year?
Best stage race of the season.

It was but I would counter that was in part due to unusual circumstances - namely Froome crashing and Contador's singular focus on Froome. But 10km provided a reasonable balance - perhaps a little short. Too much TTing can be as bad as too little of course.

The Tour 2015 may yet turn out to be an all time classic.

anjasola

RichN95 wrote:

anjasola wrote:

I am trying to find a more detailed route map of the tour but not having much joy, can anyone help please?

Thanks

The detailed ones don't usually come out until a month or two before the race.

Thank you.

florerider

Salsiccia1 wrote:

florerider wrote:

Watching French TV last night - seems to be a popular route here.

I'll bet it is, it's giving Peraud and Pinot their best shot.

Funny you should say that, AG2RLM got a lot of air time!

tailwindhome

Green Jersey comp gets tinkered with too
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racing/t ... 4MXVwtR.99