Pub Talk - Nibali would have won anyway

smithy21

mamba80 wrote:

this isn't even worthy of the pub... the (wet) cobbles were there, froome and Contador couldn't stay up right... one might as well say "if it wasn't for those mountain stages, Sagan would have won" or had Nibs lost out on the TT, "well, they shouldn't have had that stage"

Being able to ride over all distances, weathers and surfaces (its hardly as if cobbles are new to cycling) is part of being a GC contender.

I agree with this although you are sailing close to the wind with your comment re cobbles and GT's

There won't be an asterisk next to Nibali's name on any list of winners saying that Froome and Contador crashed. I would not be surprised if there was an asterisk for other reasons though. I can't make up my mind about it. On the one hand the competition is mediocre- on the other he just rode away from 9km out yesterday like he was out for a pootle.

antsmithmk

I could not believe yesterdays ride. Maybe its because I can't seem to warm to Nibbles (nor Froome) that I look at his achievements in this tour with a suspicious eye!

ugo.santalucia

antsmithmk wrote:

I could not believe yesterdays ride. Maybe its because I can't seem to warm to Nibbles (nor Froome) that I look at his achievements in this tour with a suspicious eye!

You clearly don't follow cycling, or you are blinded by Sky performance... It's no news that Nibali is a top climber... he has been since 2010... and in the end he put one minute into people who are not top climbers... so I would be more suspicious about the latter, if you really have to be suspicious... :?

Macaloon

FJS wrote:

So, follow up pub question, if many people here believe it would have been close between Contador, Froome and Nibali after Nibali gained a considerable amount of time on the cobbles, does that mean Nibali would still not have been competitive against Froome and Contador without the cobbles?

Much closer. Nibali lost 30s twice to Froometador at the Dauphiné. But he was climbing with Bardet, VDB, the ubiquitous Zubeldia etc. He's obviously in peak shape seemingly a level or two above Dauphiné form. We don't know if Froometador had much room for improvement, but Froome was going to be busy healing.

I think Quintana could beat this Nibali. It's very close with the other two over a 3 week race. Maybe comes down to efficient bike-handling and positioning.

ugo.santalucia

I think it's pretty pointless to discuss who would have won a different Tour? I think we can all agree that Nibali wouldn't win a Tour with no mountain finish, no cobbles and 120 Km agaist the clock like in the days of Indurain... but does it matter?

Daz555

2013 Froome would have ripped Nibs to shreds in the mountains. 2014 Froome though would have had a serious problem clawing back the time lost on the cobbles. He'd have taken a minute from Nibs in the TT tho.

We'll never know!

Daz555

ugo.santalucia wrote:

I think it's pretty pointless to discuss who would have won a different Tour? I think we can all agree that Nibali wouldn't win a Tour with no mountain finish, no cobbles and 120 Km agaist the clock like in the days of Indurain... but does it matter?

Wiggo would have loved those days.

ugo.santalucia

Daz555 wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

I think it's pretty pointless to discuss who would have won a different Tour? I think we can all agree that Nibali wouldn't win a Tour with no mountain finish, no cobbles and 120 Km agaist the clock like in the days of Indurain... but does it matter?

Wiggo would have loved those days.

Yes, while you can ask Chiappucci ho much HE loved them...
Winning the Tour is not just about being the best out there, you need the right terrain... Nibali has been lucky to come in tiop form in a race that fit him like a glove.

Macaloon

This doping stuff is nuts. (Some) People would be hysterical about Froome imploding if he only put 1:10 into Pinot up the legendary Hautacam. Before posting another "doesn't look right to me", have a listen to a passionate argument in favour of common sense from Mr Friebe, at ~ 36:00.

philbar72

DeadCalm wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

NorvernRob wrote:

Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?

These days. A minute maybe. Maybe not even that. He's improved in the last couple of years.

He has improved a ridiculous amount since going to Astana. No way that the Nibali of 2012 would have dominated this the way the 2014 version has.

thats rubbish. He's improved his TT-ing, He's now using his power meter more on the climbs, he's much more savvy. I don't see any performance increases per se. He's done the right thing and specifically targetted stages where he knew he would be able to make his mark. he's used sprint stages to ensure he gets a form of recovery in, before the big climbs, then has been fresh and has timed his moves correctly.

I still think in terms of climbing ability he is weaker than Froome, and Quintana, and about level with Contador. I think with a 2012 or 2013 parcours he would have podiumed on this years form. he would probably not have won. this year without any direct competition, he's simply been at his normal GC level. which is to say one of the top 4 riders in the world at that level...

FJS

mamba80 wrote:

this isn't even worthy of the pub... the (wet) cobbles were there, froome and Contador couldn't stay up right... one might as well say "if it wasn't for those mountain stages, Sagan would have won" or had Nibs lost out on the TT, "well, they shouldn't have had that stage"

Being able to ride over all distances, weathers and surfaces (its hardly as if cobbles are new to cycling) is part of being a GC contender.

absolutely, but the relevance lies in the fact that next year's tdf might well not have cobbles; they're still exceptional in grand tours. Especially wet cobbles!

Crozza

There's only one way to settle this - Nibali vs Quintana vs Froome vs Contador at TDF 2015.

salsiccia1

Crozza wrote:

There's only one way to settle this - Nibali vs Quintana vs Froome vs Contador at TDF 2015.

Word. It's got to happen.

Coachb

philbar72 wrote:

DeadCalm wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

NorvernRob wrote:

Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?

These days. A minute maybe. Maybe not even that. He's improved in the last couple of years.

He has improved a ridiculous amount since going to Astana. No way that the Nibali of 2012 would have dominated this the way the 2014 version has.

thats rubbish. He's improved his TT-ing, He's now using his power meter more on the climbs, he's much more savvy. I don't see any performance increases per se. He's done the right thing and specifically targetted stages where he knew he would be able to make his mark. he's used sprint stages to ensure he gets a form of recovery in, before the big climbs, then has been fresh and has timed his moves correctly.

I still think in terms of climbing ability he is weaker than Froome, and Quintana, and about level with Contador. I think with a 2012 or 2013 parcours he would have podiumed on this years form. he would probably not have won. this year without any direct competition, he's simply been at his normal GC level. which is to say one of the top 4 riders in the world at that level...

Froome is an equal climber to Quintana and better than Contador .

ugo.santalucia

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Crozza wrote:

There's only one way to settle this - Nibali vs Quintana vs Froome vs Contador at TDF 2015.

Word. It's got to happen.

Yes, but without the cobbles is going to be boring... in my ideal world Nibali would be content with his 3 GT victories and concentrate on the classics, including RVV and PR... I don't really like serial winners... I like riders who won them all!

Obviously Froome is too narrow minded to even consider there are other races in the calendar, so we can't count on him

Macaloon

Nibali's first week aggression would have made it more difficult for Froome to recover from the Dauphiné crash, and Contador from his heroics. I think it's obvious from the Sky team that they were more worried about flat stage survival horsepower than climbing legs. Containing a rampant Nibali, in his element, may have been a nasty surprise.

I would love to know if Nibali has been sandbagging everybody, including Vino, all season. The peerless Mikel Condé had Nibali as top podium pick behind Froometador. Very few predicted this performance.

ContrelaMontre

Coachb wrote:

Froome is an equal climber to Quintana and better than Contador .

Seeing as Froome rinsed Quintana up Ventoux last year (on a high spin cycle) and Contador couldn't overtake him in the Dauphine stage where he wheelsucked him to the line I am not sure why you are laughing so much.

adr82

mamba80 wrote:

this isn't even worthy of the pub... the (wet) cobbles were there, froome and Contador couldn't stay up right... one might as well say "if it wasn't for those mountain stages, Sagan would have won" or had Nibs lost out on the TT, "well, they shouldn't have had that stage"

Being able to ride over all distances, weathers and surfaces (its hardly as if cobbles are new to cycling) is part of being a GC contender.

Except that the cobbles were not directly responsible for the withdrawal of Froome (who initially crashed on stage 4, then twice on stage 5 before the cobbles, on normal wet roads) or that of Contador (who crashed going down a dry hill 5 stages later). Before someone jumps in and argues that the cobbles lurking in the latter half of stage 5 caused the first half to be fast and nervy, I'm sure that's true to some extent but in the end it was the wet surface that made the difference. 50k before the cobbles people were already falling off all over the place. It's not exactly unheard of for wet roads to cause crashes. If stage 5 had been a more typical flat/rolling stage with weather like that day we could still have seen a GC contender crashing out.

Crozza

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Crozza wrote:

There's only one way to settle this - Nibali vs Quintana vs Froome vs Contador at TDF 2015.

Word. It's got to happen.

Yes, but without the cobbles is going to be boring... in my ideal world Nibali would be content with his 3 GT victories and concentrate on the classics, including RVV and PR... I don't really like serial winners... I like riders who won them all!

Obviously Froome is too narrow minded to even consider there are other races in the calendar, so we can't count on him

first he should defend his TDF title against the strongest possible opposition, then he can start messing around with one dayers

ugo.santalucia

Crozza wrote:

first he should defend his TDF title against the strongest possible opposition, then he can start messing around with one dayers

If it suits him... I don't believe in the moral obligation to defend the title... if they put 100 Km against the clock, he should look elsewhere. Wiggins didn't defend his title and I think it was the right thing to do.

While Paris-Roubaix is always the same, hence the moral obligation to defend the title, the Tour can be vastly different and completely unsuitable to one's characteristics. It's beyond doubt that Froome can take 4-5 minutes off Nibali over 100 Km TT... so why bother?

Crozza

ugo.santalucia wrote:

... so why bother?

for my entertainment

Crozza

and besides, surely ASO won't be blind to the prospect of a battle royale (plus the new crop of French climbers getting even stronger) and will design the route accordingly?

ugo.santalucia

Crozza wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

... so why bother?

for my entertainment

Well, for my own entertainment I would like to see Nibali at RVV and PR... I am a bit fed up to see hopeless Pozzato as the only italian contender ...

Macaloon

Crozza wrote:

and besides, surely ASO won't be blind to the prospect of a battle royale (plus the new crop of French climbers getting even stronger) and will design the route accordingly?

To crank up the suspense, future Tour TTs should be kept in the motel attic. There's no need for early showers.

vinnymarsden

I think banging on about what ifs etc re Froome & Contador is pointless, both riders fell off and left the race..... end of.

Nibali has ridden a very canny race and credit to him, I don't like the fact that a Brit didn't,t get a single stage but let's be honest we weren't over represented were we
Sky need a total utter root and branch debrief because quite frankly they were sh1t once Froome was out.
I like Sky but their marginal gains thing is not new now, everyone's doing it,so DB Needs a new approach/team

Macaloon

VinnyMarsden wrote:

Sky need a total utter root and branch debrief because quite frankly they were sh1t once Froome was out.

Don't overreact. A few hard-hitting hand-hygiene Awareness Campaigns will do the trick.

Pross

From what I've seen there's no way Contador or Froome would have regained a significant part (or any) of their pave losses in the mountains and I can't see Contador in particular having pulled anything back in the TT. Nibali has been utterly dominant (albeit it against second string riders) and I feel sure he could have followed wheels to defend if necessary. Maybe being put under pressure everyday would have cracked him but he could have given a few seconds here and there. I actually feel a bit sorry for him as people will always ask the question. That said, a major part of being a successful GT rider is enduring illness and injury to get through the 3 weeks. I think Astana played a blinder with this Tour to the extent that no-one was considering Nibali for anything other than the 3rd step on the podium.

mm1

What is absolutely clear is that Nibali had the Tour as his main focus for the season (albiet that he is a proper all season racer as we saw at MSR), it looks like he has had an easier time than he prepared for but he was ready to take on Froome and Contador and probably misses not having been able to. At the start of the race Paulo Slongo said that he doubted that Froome and Contador would be able to hold the form that they had from the Dauphine, while Nibali was just coming into form.

powerbookboy

I think all you can say is that Nibali was the most complete GC rider who entered THIS Tour. Whether he would have actually won it had Froome not been injured both prior and during, and Contador not face-planted we'll never know. But in terms of the rider with the range of skills necessary to win this race, Nibali had everything. He can race instinctively, he can use his team to position himself well and safely, he can climb with the very best, he can TT, he can descend fast and finally he can ride cobbles like he was born to it (who knew?).

You might argue that with G as wingman Froome would have held the gap down as Porte did on the cobbles. Maybe Bertie did have clogged gears that day? But no maybes about Nibali's performance; he twisted the knife hard and deep. For the remainder of the Tour I watched a rider in complete, almost effortless control of the race. He measured his efforts beautifully, wore the jersey well, and finally showed real panache (and let's be honest a bit of stupidity) in the final day in the mountains. Attacking 10km from the summit when you've everything to lose and nothing to gain apart from slapping Horner? Ballsy.

Had all 3 remained fit and well, I think it would have come down to seconds in the final time trail, much as it did yesterday for 2-4th. Would have been wonderful entertainment. Whether Nibs would have won, I can't say. But it would have been close. Maybe Lemond/Fignon close.

My gut feeling is that the time he took on the cobbles would have been decisive. I was expecting that Contador and Froome might have been able to chips 30 seconds here, 20 seconds there, but having watched Nibs and Astana through the race I don't think they'd have done it. I think desperation would have made them do stupid things, and the mental pressure would have ground them down and they'd have popped like Valv finally did.

A great winner. And a triple GT winner. Let's trust it was believable and applaud a superb rider who's actually gone on to fulfil all the early hype by slowly improving year on year. A very rare beastie...

rick_chasey

I wouldn't forget that Nibali was able to ride more or less entirely on his own terms in this Tour.

He had no real challengers, and no-one ever put him under pressure, so he could pick and choose his efforts.

That gives you so much freshness going into that final week and it showed.


Contrast with Valverde who was put under a lot of pressure in the Pyrenees. That hurt him a lot come the TT.

Had Nibali been racing Contador & Froome who would have been able to put him under at least some pressure, Nibali would not have been anywhere near as strong as he was come week 3.

And his team failings would have shown up a lot more.