Pub Talk - Nibali would have won anyway
Comments
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You are changing your argument. You often have interesting points to make but are totally incapable of admitting that you have ever been wrong (witness the on-bike camera thread) which saddens me.RichN95 wrote:
Yep. Someone who has done well, but never performed at Froome's level. He may have been on course for a top six - but that's ten minutes behind the person Coachb thinks wouldn't have coped.DeadCalm wrote:
You mean a 37 year old who turned pro in 2010, who managed 9th in his first ever participation in the TDF in 2011 and was on course for a top 5 or 6 last year in a supposedly much, much stronger field before crashing out in the TT? Hmmm...RichN95 wrote:
Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?Coachb wrote:I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.0 -
No my argument is consistent. Coachb said that with the high pace Froome would have struggled to cope. My query/point is why wouldn't he cope when riders who are always been inferior to him have managed just fine (Peraud being the best of these)DeadCalm wrote:You are changing your argument. You often have interesting points to make but are totally incapable of admitting that you have ever been wrong (witness the on-bike camera thread) which saddens me.Twitter: @RichN950 -
I feel this is just the beer talking...0
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And to prove my point...RichN95 wrote:
No my argument is consistent. Coachb said that with the high pace Froome would have struggled to cope. My query/point is why wouldn't he cope when riders who are always been inferior to him have managed just fine (Peraud being the best of these)DeadCalm wrote:You are changing your argument. You often have interesting points to make but are totally incapable of admitting that you have ever been wrong (witness the on-bike camera thread) which saddens me.0 -
iainf72 wrote:Nibali is a fine rider and I've not really seen him do anything in this Tour that's beyond what he's done in the past. Aside from the cobbles maybe.
If Contador and Froome were there, it would've been a different animal tactically. But it's impossible to predict what would've happened.
To me, Nibali being 7 minutes up on the guy in 2nd place seems to make complete sense.
While the cobbled stage was exciting, I feel it had an adverse affect on the racing.
The cobbles are racing aren't they?
I know some think they are a lottery but no one went home because of them this year and the (much harder) P-R doesn't seem to through up real outsiders as winners.0 -
DeadCalm wrote:
He has improved a ridiculous amount since going to Astana. No way that the Nibali of 2012 would have dominated this the way the 2014 version has.RichN95 wrote:
These days. A minute maybe. Maybe not even that. He's improved in the last couple of years.NorvernRob wrote:Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?
Nibali has improved but....
2012
3 Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) Liquigas-Cannondale + 6' 19″
4 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (BEL) Lotto-Belisol + 10' 15″
5 Tejay van Garderen (USA) Jersey white.svg BMC Racing Team + 11' 04″
6 Haimar Zubeldia (ESP) Jersey yellow number.svg RadioShack-Nissan + 15' 41″
7 Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 15' 49″
8 Pierre Rolland (FRA) Team Europcar + 16' 26″
9 Janez Brajkovič (SLO) Astana + 16' 33″
10 Thibaut Pinot (FRA) FDJ-BigMat + 17' 17″
There's a healthy gap between him and the also rans.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Well I'm sorry if I'm going to stick to my assessment that Froome is and always will be better than Peraud (amongst others). If you disagree please tell me why? Why would he struggle to cope in the presence of riders he has consistently beaten easily?DeadCalm wrote:
And to prove my point...RichN95 wrote:
No my argument is consistent. Coachb said that with the high pace Froome would have struggled to cope. My query/point is why wouldn't he cope when riders who are always been inferior to him have managed just fine (Peraud being the best of these)DeadCalm wrote:You are changing your argument. You often have interesting points to make but are totally incapable of admitting that you have ever been wrong (witness the on-bike camera thread) which saddens me.Twitter: @RichN950 -
So he was less than 5 minutes ahead of TJVG. Do you think TJVG this year is stronger or weaker than he was in 2012?TailWindHome wrote:DeadCalm wrote:
He has improved a ridiculous amount since going to Astana. No way that the Nibali of 2012 would have dominated this the way the 2014 version has.RichN95 wrote:
These days. A minute maybe. Maybe not even that. He's improved in the last couple of years.NorvernRob wrote:Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?
Nibali has improved but....
2012
3 Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) Liquigas-Cannondale + 6' 19″
4 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (BEL) Lotto-Belisol + 10' 15″
5 Tejay van Garderen (USA) Jersey white.svg BMC Racing Team + 11' 04″
6 Haimar Zubeldia (ESP) Jersey yellow number.svg RadioShack-Nissan + 15' 41″
7 Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 15' 49″
8 Pierre Rolland (FRA) Team Europcar + 16' 26″
9 Janez Brajkovič (SLO) Astana + 16' 33″
10 Thibaut Pinot (FRA) FDJ-BigMat + 17' 17″
There's a healthy gap between him and the also rans.0 -
Yeah, but in retrospect it's distorted the race. The worst thing that can happen for the race is that the best GC rider gets a sizable advantage from them. And since Contador was a DNF that's exactly what happened.inseine wrote:The cobbles are racing aren't they?
I know some think they are a lottery but no one went home because of them this year and the (much harder) P-R doesn't seem to through up real outsiders as winners.Twitter: @RichN950 -
RichN95 wrote:
Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?Coachb wrote:I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.
Quintata dropped him on Alpe D'Huez last year, when he got the penalty for getting a gel from the team car in the last 10km.
To be fair he still took a minute out of Contador.0 -
Speculation is ultimately futile but such good fun. Nibs has ridden a brilliant professional race. Taken time at every opportunity.
Quite why this means Froome has lost so much form he would be 7 mins behind seems a little bizarre. Great race but the forum seems more stupid than ever this year.0 -
Very true. That's why I said anyone at the front end of this race (to deliberately exclude him and J-Rod).frisbee wrote:RichN95 wrote:Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?
Quintata dropped him on Alpe D'Huez last year, when he got the penalty for getting a gel from the team car in the last 10km.
To be fair he still took a minute out of Contador.Twitter: @RichN950 -
Firstly, you could have accepted that you were wrong to belittle Peraud in the way that you did in your original post. Second, you could have acknowledged the fact that you were completely and utterly wrong in what you were arguing on the on-bike footage thread. As I said, point proven...RichN95 wrote:
Well I'm sorry if I'm going to stick to my assessment that Froome is and always will be better than Peraud (amongst others). If you disagree please tell me why? Why would he struggle to cope in the presence of riders he has consistently beaten easily?DeadCalm wrote:
And to prove my point...RichN95 wrote:
No my argument is consistent. Coachb said that with the high pace Froome would have struggled to cope. My query/point is why wouldn't he cope when riders who are always been inferior to him have managed just fine (Peraud being the best of these)DeadCalm wrote:You are changing your argument. You often have interesting points to make but are totally incapable of admitting that you have ever been wrong (witness the on-bike camera thread) which saddens me.0 -
RichN95 wrote:
Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?Coachb wrote:I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.
Last Autumn he got mugged by a 42 year old whose best previous result was winning Pais Vasco.
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
I have to be honest , Nibali has looked unbeatable...I think to suggest he's using illegal stuff is like one poster said...sour grapes..
I don't think it's fair to think just because he has ridden so well he HAS to be taking something...the leaders are tested EVERY day, after the finish, it would be a fool who used in the current world of pro cycling...that's not to say some don't but come on, a realistic REAL GC contender has got to know he's going to be tested ALL the time.
I would love to have seen a Brit win again, but it's a global sport and I am just happy to see the best in the world on the day come up with the goods.
So all credit to Nibali and his team, they have totally dominated the race and come Sunday it would be fitting for EVERYONE to accept the best man won, all things between now and then being equal.
Just because people don't like a guy doesn't make him a doper does it0 -
First of all I wasn't belittling him, he's a quality rider. In a clean sport he may have won a Tour or two. But I'm seeing him for what he is - a second tier GC rider, significantly below Froome. Not one of preview magazines had him in their contenders list.DeadCalm wrote:Firstly, you could have accepted that you were wrong to belittle Peraud in the way that you did in your original post. Second, you could have acknowledged the fact that you were completely and utterly wrong in what you were arguing on the on-bike footage thread. As I said, point proven...
And as for the bike camera thread - where was I wrong. (Bear in mind here that for a living I examine patent applications for cameras, so I have a pretty solid idea of the technology)Twitter: @RichN950 -
VinnyMarsden wrote:I have to be honest , Nibali has looked unbeatable...I think to suggest he's using illegal stuff is like one poster said...sour grapes..
I don't think it's fair to think just because he has ridden so well he HAS to be taking something...the leaders are tested EVERY day, after the finish, it would be a fool who used in the current world of pro cycling...that's not to say some don't but come on, a realistic REAL GC contender has got to know he's going to be tested ALL the time.
I would love to have seen a Brit win again, but it's a global sport and I am just happy to see the best in the world on the day come up with the goods.
So all credit to Nibali and his team, they have totally dominated the race and come Sunday it would be fitting for EVERYONE to accept the best man won, all things between now and then being equal.
Just because people don't like a guy doesn't make him a doper does it
No, but choosing a team like Astana, with.., politely said, a questionable man behind the desk, and add dodgy connections to Ferrari should rightfully be grounds for concern.0 -
You don't think that the phrase 'a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice' is belittling of Peraud?RichN95 wrote:
First of all I wasn't belittling him, he's a quality rider. In a clean sport he may have won a Tour or two. But I'm seeing him for what is - a second tier GC rider, significantly. Not one of preview magazines had him in their contenders list.DeadCalm wrote:Firstly, you could have accepted that you were wrong to belittle Peraud in the way that you did in your original post. Second, you could have acknowledged the fact that you were completely and utterly wrong in what you were arguing on the on-bike footage thread. As I said, point proven...
I suggest you re-read the thread which someone (not me) has conveniently bumped and maybe take a look at the link johnboy183 posted on page 5.RichN95 wrote:And as for the bike camera thread - where was I wrong. (Bear in mind here that for a living I examine patent applications for cameras, so I have a pretty solid idea of the technology)
Look through my posting history and you will see plenty of examples of me admitting that I was wrong. But in this instance I'm not and I won't be doing so.0 -
Which bit? The video were some people are talking about how they are looking into developing ways of doing it in real time. That's tallies with what I sad - the technology is not there to do it right now. It didn't say it never would be - because it will.DeadCalm wrote:I suggest you re-read the thread which someone (not me) has conveniently bumped and maybe take a look at the link johnboy183 posted on page 5.Twitter: @RichN950 -
Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?RichN95 wrote:Coachb wrote:I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.
Last year's tour Froome got dropped.
Horner in his 40's beat Nibs.
I should have looked at the posts above :oops:0 -
Coachb wrote:Horner in his 40's beat Nibs.
I suspect to a great extent, that fact is hugely contributory to the Nibs we have seen these last 3 weeks.
Everything about his approach to this race has been thoroughly professional. I suspect, like the Wiggo of 2010, Nibs at the 2013 Vuelta got complacent. Both bounced back all the stronger from those set backs.0 -
By riders not in or not challenging for this race. And when the GC was basically done and dusted.Coachb wrote:Last year's tour Froome got dropped.
He did. And we can argue as to why that was until the cows come home. Froome got beaten by Cobo once. But have any of the others in the Tour top ten challenged for a GT? Valverde back in the day. When have the rest shown Froome-like ability?Coachb wrote:Horner in his 40's beat Nibs.Twitter: @RichN950 -
Apologies to all and Rich in particular for derailing this thread into a pointless and stupid argument. My only excuse (and it is a poor one) is that it was 4am here at the time and I'd just got back from a lengthy night out on the town0
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this is very true. The defensive riding for minor placings behind Nibali started even earlier than normal (even though that produced its own entertaining racing, although obviously not as entertaining as bold attacks on yellow would have been).iainf72 wrote:Nibali is a fine rider and I've not really seen him do anything in this Tour that's beyond what he's done in the past. Aside from the cobbles maybe.
While the cobbled stage was exciting, I feel it had an adverse affect on the racing.
On the other hand that defensive riding for minor placings would have happened anyway without the cobbles, wih a whole range of riders with th chance of a lifetime to get on the podium. The absence by now of the whole top 5 of last year has had a bigger impact than the cobbles.
Like many I believe it would have been a close fight between Contador, Nibali and Froome with the 2 and a half minutes gained on the cobbles by Nibali, with a decisive TT (it's very long, and I do believe an in form Froome could take well over a minute on Nibali there).
So, follow up pub question, if many people here believe it would have been close between Contador, Froome and Nibali after Nibali gained a considerable amount of time on the cobbles, does that mean Nibali would still not have been competitive against Froome and Contador without the cobbles?0 -
this isn't even worthy of the pub... the (wet) cobbles were there, froome and Contador couldn't stay up right... one might as well say "if it wasn't for those mountain stages, Sagan would have won" or had Nibs lost out on the TT, "well, they shouldn't have had that stage"
Being able to ride over all distances, weathers and surfaces (its hardly as if cobbles are new to cycling) is part of being a GC contender.0 -
FJS wrote:Like many I believe it would have been a close fight between Contador, Nibali and Froome with the 2 and a half minutes gained on the cobbles by Nibali, with a decisive TT (it's very long, and I do believe an in form Froome could take well over a minute on Nibali there).
mebbe, but then St 8 of last year's Giro was a very long TT also (the one Dowsett won) and Nibs lost only 11 seconds to Wiggins* and 21 to Dowsett, in a stage he was expected to lose buckets. he's worked on it a lot, eg
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gallery ... pecialized
contrast this with Andy Schleck, who after Saxo brought in a TT fitting expert to help him didn't actually train on his TT bike once in 3 months between sessions
*ok he needed a bike swap but...0 -
Can you point to some link or info on the connection to Ferrari? I'm not nearly as avid a cycling reader as many on here and I was completely unaware of any connection.ThomThom wrote:No, but choosing a team like Astana, with.., politely said, a questionable man behind the desk, and add dodgy connections to Ferrari should rightfully be grounds for concern.0 -
BelgianBeerGeek wrote:I'm with deejay. The stage 2 win was opportunistic, albeit slightly calculated. Wearing yellow puts pressure on the others and Nibali is a seasoned enough campaigner to know anything can happen in a GT. When Froome and Contador folded, he was already in a good place. He was canny enough to capitalise on this.
If Froome and Contador were still in and in contention - no way. He has worn the yellow jersey with style, though, and today's stage was taken with real style.
Stage 2 was not opportunism I reckon, it was part of Nibali's plan. Basically, by taking the yellow at that stage it meant the Astana car was at the front of the convoy for Stage 5 where he had the plan to attack on the cobbles. If he'd been 10th - 20th on GC going into the cobbles it would have been harder to execute the plan as the order of the cars is based on the highest GC rider's position.
Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster0 -
The turning point of the race was stage 5. He gained a hell of a lot of time there and it would have been pretty hard for Contador or Froome to gain it back. That said, Froome could have put a couple of minutes into Nibali in the TT, as he did back in 2012, so it's down to how much time he would have lost in stage 5 had he not been injured already. Being a modest bike handler, I suspect more than Contador, so hard to say.
The race has been great without those two: had they been in, all the battle between the French boys would have been for irrelevant positions out of the podium and a lot less interestingleft the forum March 20230 -
dougzz wrote:
Can you point to some link or info on the connection to Ferrari? I'm not nearly as avid a cycling reader as many on here and I was completely unaware of any connection.ThomThom wrote:No, but choosing a team like Astana, with.., politely said, a questionable man behind the desk, and add dodgy connections to Ferrari should rightfully be grounds for concern.
There is none. It was raised a few years ago when Fanini told Capodacqua that he saw Nibs training with Ferrari and had photos. Nibali started legal action and that carried on for a while. They eventually asked Nibs to drop it as he was right, no one had seen him and there was no photos. Nibs also confirms he's never met Ferrari
Fanini paid a fine to charity due to the claims.Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.0
