Pub Talk - Nibali would have won anyway

tailwindhome

Even if the rest of the Big Four were there, Nibali was just too good and would have won this Tour.

Discuss

sy1975

TailWindHome wrote:

Even if the rest of the Big Four were there, Nibali was just too good and would have won this Tour.

Discuss

must admit as I watched Nibali power past the leader with 6km to go I thought exactly that (or hes on the juice). I don't think that Sky have looked anywhere near strong enough and i believe the team would have been found wanting if Froome had made it to the mountains.

RichN95.

We will never know. But if we consider the cobbles stage as two and a half minutes gained by Nibali rather than lost by the others (i.e. he would have gained it on Froome and Quintana too), then it would have been a hell of a struggle to get that time back.

RichN95.

sy1975 wrote:

must admit as I watched Nibali power past the leader with 6km to go I thought exactly that (or hes on the juice). I don't think that Sky have looked anywhere near strong enough and i believe the team would have been found wanting if Froome had made it to the mountains.

It's been rare for riders to have more than one teammate on the final climb this Tour, so I'm not sure that would be that much of a factor.

above_the_cows

He hasn't won yet. Just saying.

milton50

TailWindHome wrote:

Even if the rest of the Big Four were there, Nibali was just too good and would have won this Tour.

Discuss

Without the Arenberg stage then I still think either Froome or Contador would have won.

After Nibali found himself with a lead of 2:30 then I think it would have been very close by the end of today. I don't think it would have been done and dusted before the TT on Saturday.

above_the_cows

Milton50 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Even if the rest of the Big Four were there, Nibali was just too good and would have won this Tour.

Discuss

Without the Arenberg stage then I still think either Froome or Contador would have won.

After Nibali found himself with a lead of 2:30 then I think it would have been very close by the end of today. I don't think it would have been done and dusted before the TT on Saturday.

I think that you're right Milton, that the TT would have been the deciding factor, I think even Froome admitted that somewhere.

norvernrob

Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?

I don't think Froome or Contador would have overhauled Nibali yet after that cobbled stage, but both would have made some time back then Froome taken the win in the TT.

tailwindhome

Above The Cows wrote:

He hasn't won yet. Just saying.

Of course.
But it's so over that no one has complained about the lack of *spoilers* in the title.

above_the_cows

TailWindHome wrote:

Above The Cows wrote:

He hasn't won yet. Just saying.

Of course.
But it's so over that no one has complained about the lack of *spoilers* in the title.

RichN95.

NorvernRob wrote:

Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?

These days. A minute maybe. Maybe not even that. He's improved in the last couple of years.

milton50

NorvernRob wrote:

Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?

I'd say 1 minute absolute maximum. Nibali has a much improved TT and especially on a rolling course. In last year's Vuelta Nibali only gave away 1:25 to Cancellara. Although that did include a 3rd cat climb.

Coachb

Sky would not and have not coped with Nibs. The tempo has been to fast and most of the Sky riders have not even managed to stay with the 2nd or 3rd group on a mountain stage, they have been blown away. Froome would have been alone and isolated if he could keep up and he would have had to ride on instinct. Froome does lose time to climbers, he did last year so IMO Froome would not even have made the podium.
Contador has been super all season and a more gifted climber than Froome and looking at the strength of Saxo I think it would have been close. I think Bertie would have pulled time back but not sure after the cobbles issue he could have won.
Nibs is a worthy champ.

All the dope talk reeks of bad losers.

ddraver

Impossible to say, but I think he has done enough to be considered a worthy winner of this tour...

dougzz

ddraver wrote:

Impossible to say, but I think he has done enough to be considered a worthy winner of this tour...

If he wins this is certainly true, he's been the best. Had they remained in the race and healthy, both Froome and Contador would have beaten him. He's looked strong in the mountains roughing up the 'B' team basically. Sky would have been stronger if Froome had remained as they're a support team, Porte lacks the mental edge to step up, I bet he rides harder for Froome than he does for himself.

RichN95.

Coachb wrote:

Sky would not and have not coped with Nibs. The tempo has been to fast and most of the Sky riders have not even managed to stay with the 2nd or 3rd group on a mountain stage, they have been blown away. Froome would have been alone and isolated if he could keep up and he would have had to ride on instinct. Froome does lose time to climbers, he did last year so IMO Froome would not even have made the podium.

But Sky's tactic with Froome last year was to isolate the team leaders, including Froome, by setting a fast pace. The scenario you descirbe is what Froome would have wanted. If anything Froome would have wanted it even faster

DeVlaeminck

So the question is what - how would Froome, Quintana and Contador coped with a 2.5 minute deficit after the cobbled stage because I guess we don't know how much Quintana and Froome would have conceded on that stage - and if they were there would Contador have taken more risks to stay ahead of them ?

Immediately after that stage I thought Contador was still favourite and I'd have had Froome and an on form Quintana pretty much equal to Contador. Having seen the rest of the Tour you'd have to say Nibali may well have held a lead up until the time trial but whether it'd be a decisive one I wouldn't like to call. It's hard to get round the fact that coming into this race most of us would have had Froome, Quintana and Contador as the top grand tour riders and none were really tested against Nibali in the race.

deejay

Nibali studied the Parcours over the winter and worked out were the possible weaknesses for the other GC contenders would be and then his strategy was to gain time as early as stage 2.
With yellow on his back he now had the high ground for them to climb and this caused their downfall because they were very worried about the Pave and the time differences they need to reduce. This is the pressure he put on them.
They could ride the Pave but had never reaced on it.
Maybe Nibali did a lot of fast riding to be sure.
In the mountains they had to drop him and we saw him in the Dauphine practicing about just keeping in touch but at no time did he challenge them in that race.
I now think he had this TDF win in his strategy and some other surprises if he needed and he would have won anyway.

BelgianBeerGeek

I'm with deejay. The stage 2 win was opportunistic, albeit slightly calculated. Wearing yellow puts pressure on the others and Nibali is a seasoned enough campaigner to know anything can happen in a GT. When Froome and Contador folded, he was already in a good place. He was canny enough to capitalise on this.

If Froome and Contador were still in and in contention - no way. He has worn the yellow jersey with style, though, and today's stage was taken with real style.

Macaloon

I think Nibali is much stronger than they thought he would be. Nobody will make that mistake again.

Even a 2013 Froome was being dropped by J-Rod at this point and his team is significantly weaker (Porte and Nieve still get sick). Saxo would torture him.

I think the bigger question is whether Contador was a level above Nibali. After the first week battering, I really doubt it.

frisbee

I think Nibali has gone up a level or two on the climbs. The TT will be an interesting benchmark.

He hasn't needed to fully extend himself on any stage, he's made a gap and maintained it. The rest of the field look tired and he doesn't.

He would have won even if the other big 3 were in the race.

Macaloon

I don't think it would be over by now. Nibali might well have to claw back a small deficit to Quintana, and defend small enough leads over Froome and Contador that they'd come close to on their best days. It hurts to speculate on winning margins.

Bakunin

Not sure that he would have won -- Tinkoff and Sky may have been stronger teams than Astana. You would have to think that both Tinko and Sky would have tried to make him uncomfortable and chip away.

Nibs was isolated a lot (maybe just a function of JF's crash) in the mountains, Froome and AC would have pushed him.

But Nibs was very strong and very smart. With everyone racing for second -- he could do what he wanted, and he did.

brianonyx

I don't think anyone would have kept up with Nibali.

The way he doesn't even look out of breath he is on a different level to the rest of them.

iainf72

Nibali is a fine rider and I've not really seen him do anything in this Tour that's beyond what he's done in the past. Aside from the cobbles maybe.

If Contador and Froome were there, it would've been a different animal tactically. But it's impossible to predict what would've happened.

To me, Nibali being 7 minutes up on the guy in 2nd place seems to make complete sense.

While the cobbled stage was exciting, I feel it had an adverse affect on the racing.

Coachb

RichN95 wrote:

Coachb wrote:

Sky would not and have not coped with Nibs. The tempo has been to fast and most of the Sky riders have not even managed to stay with the 2nd or 3rd group on a mountain stage, they have been blown away. Froome would have been alone and isolated if he could keep up and he would have had to ride on instinct. Froome does lose time to climbers, he did last year so IMO Froome would not even have made the podium.

But Sky's tactic with Froome last year was to isolate the team leaders, including Froome, by setting a fast pace. The scenario you descirbe is what Froome would have wanted. If anything Froome would have wanted it even faster

I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.

cesco

Slightly off-topic, but Nibali ticks a lot of my boxes:
- He's Italian (kind of)
- Rides with panache
- Has a cool nickname
- Is in a questionable team

and still he doesn't seem to excite me much.

RichN95.

Coachb wrote:

I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.

Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?

DeadCalm

RichN95 wrote:

NorvernRob wrote:

Froome would have made how much time over Nibali on the TT? 90s? 2 minutes?

These days. A minute maybe. Maybe not even that. He's improved in the last couple of years.

He has improved a ridiculous amount since going to Astana. No way that the Nibali of 2012 would have dominated this the way the 2014 version has.

DeadCalm

RichN95 wrote:

Coachb wrote:

I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.

Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?

You mean a 37 year old who turned pro in 2010, who managed 9th in his first ever participation in the TDF in 2011 and was on course for a top 5 or 6 last year in a supposedly much, much stronger field before crashing out in the TT? Hmmm...

RichN95.

DeadCalm wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Coachb wrote:

I understand your point Rich but I just don't think Froome could have coped. Sky are used to controlling races and setting the tempo. Froome has a few bad days I just feel the way Nibs has rode and the strength Saxo have shown they seemed to have stepped up a level. I am looking forward to the Vuelta and to see if Froome can be consistent for the whole of the race. I don't like the winner of a GT to win because he has a huge ITT margin. I like the way this tour has been set up with the ITT at the end. I like to see the gains made on the climbs not being destroyed by a ITT. The tour has got it right this time. I do want to add that I hope Froome gets into top form and we have some great close racing at the Vuelta. Froome and Bertie have been greatly missed from this race.

Why would he have struggled to cope when a 37 year old whose best previous result was 3rd place at Paris-Nice seems to manage OK? And when has a fit Froome ever been dropped by anyone at the front end of this race?

You mean a 37 year old who turned pro in 2010, who managed 9th in his first ever participation in the TDF in 2011 and was on course for a top 5 or 6 last year in a supposedly much, much stronger field before crashing out in the TT? Hmmm...

Yep. Someone who has done well, but never performed at Froome's level. He may have been on course for a top six - but that's at least ten minutes behind the person Coachb thinks wouldn't have coped.