Scottish independence - The real issue

Northwind

stubs wrote:

As I have said before if you guys vote for Independence fine I am not bothered. What I am bothered about is this obsession with oil, in the long term it wouldnt even be as big for Scotlands economy as Whisky

Yeah but no, actually not at all. North sea oil employs 450000 people and pays 6.5bn in direct taxes on top of that. Whisky provides 35000 jobs and only £4bn gva (ie, not just tax, but taking into account every last penny that comes from whisky including income tax paid by employees etc). So it's a drop in the bucket frankly.

In the long term oil will run out, which is why it should be being invested- Scotland doesn't actually need the oil to make independence work, our balance of payments would be pretty comparable to the UK's and our national debt is potentially zero (realistically it's likely we'll take on our share of the national debt, which still leaves us with a better debt/GDP ratio than the UK, and better defecit/GDP ratio than the UK)

So the fact that the UK failed to create an oil fund when they should have is a total bummer and we can't fix that, it's probably the biggest economic lost opportunity since the war... but it's not too late for us to make something lasting of the remaining resources.

markhewitt1978

I think the UK at the time saw all the money it had and just wanted to spend it as the oil would last forever - or more honestly it was used to pay unemployment after the tories deliberately put millions out of work for their own amusement.

But the oil rich countries now recognise it won't last forever so the likes of Dubai and Norway are going for investment rather than spending. If Scotland were to persue the same policy they it could become very rich and stay very rich.

adamfo

Northwind wrote:

thekickingmule wrote:

The City is so damn rich, and money flows through it so much, I really believe that Scotland would lose out on that. I completely agree that London takes all the money and considers it "English", but I'd go further and say that London takes the money and considers it "Londons"!

That's kind of the point, all the regions already lose out- we can't lose it twice! But independence will rebalance that at least in part- we don't really know how much but there's no chance it gets worse.

And besides, none of this is taken into account in those GDP figures which show that even as is, Scotland is wealthier than the rest of the UK. So it's a case where the actual numbers will be better, but it's not that important for the argument since even the numbers we have make a good case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of those people that's offended by the fact that we subsidise the rest of the uk- the rich should support the less rich, that's how societies work. Though weirdly the current government is against doing that, except when it's Westminster that gets the benefit- god forbid we should do it for the poor though...

The bit that sucks is the constant chat about Scotland "getting more than their share", and now Westminster talking about revising the Barnett formula. Basically saying "You don't subsidise us enough!" We're supposed to feel grateful that after we give Westminster a sack of cash, we get a smaller sack back.

Scottish GDP per capita is lower than England and the UK average with oil revenue excluded

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24866266

Oil revenue only makes up 1.5% of total UK Govt. revenue. For an independent Scotland the percentage would be ten times more but certainly not the riches some seem to think !

Northwind

adamfo wrote:

Scottish GDP per capita is lower than England and the UK average with oil revenue excluded

Are there any other key industries you'd like to randomly discount?

cooldad

Northwind wrote:

adamfo wrote:

Scottish GDP per capita is lower than England and the UK average with oil revenue excluded

Are there any other key industries?

poah

cooldad wrote:

Northwind wrote:

adamfo wrote:

Scottish GDP per capita is lower than England and the UK average with oil revenue excluded

Are there any other key industries?

Energy sources (not oil & gas)
chemical sciences
life sciences
textiles
ICT and electronic technologies (almost 30% of europes PC's are built in Scotland)
Financial services (7 billion to the economy apparently)
Whisky (4 billion)
tourism makes up 3% of our economic output
not including oil and gas we exported almost 24 billion pounds worth of stuff abroad and 45 billion to the rest of the UK

Stevo_666

Far as I can see, most of us English don't really give a flying **** if Scotland stays or goes as it won't really affect our lives - you have your vote and you do what you want to do.

Just don't expect any farkin favours from us if you do decide to leave, you're on your own after that.

stubs

POAH wrote:

not including oil and gas we exported almost 24 billion pounds worth of stuff abroad and 45 billion to the rest of the UK

When your independent and outside the EU for however long it takes to apply and be accepted arent you guys risking that 45 billion to the UK. Dont know anything about importing into the EU but I bet it involves a shit load of paperwork and extra costs. Not saying that 45 billion of business will disappear but even say 10% of customers in the UK go somewhere else in the EU thats a whopping bite out of the legendary oil money.

I couldnt care less about independence as it will make about 0.1% difference to me but my sister lives in Scotland and has done for more of her life than she lived in England (35 aginst just 23) and she is near retirement age. She is very worried about her pension and retirement rights if Salmond and his cronies gets their greasy hands on her money.

Northwind

Stevo 666 wrote:

Far as I can see, most of us English don't really give a flying **** if Scotland stays or goes as it won't really affect our lives - you have your vote and you do what you want to do.

Your economy's likely to be fairly farked tbh- little chance of retaining the current credit ratings due to the pretty big rise in debt/GDP and deficit/GDP so the cost of maintaining that high debt will rise, and an outright drop in GDP and rise in deficit both in total and per capita. This stuff's all very uncertain though as we don't know how much of the debt and how much of the assets Scotland will take, or how much it'll cost the UK, but there's no likely outcome where Scotland isn't better off and the UK worse.

If the government insist there can't be any currency union- which I doubt very much- then the cost of doing business with one of your biggest trading partners (us) goes through the roof but also by ruling out major negotiation points they're walking towards Scotland picking up only what liabilities they're required to (ie, none of the national debt at all, it's legally the UK's)

Stevo_666

I doubt it.

You're forgetting that England and Wales is more that 10 times bigger than Scotland population-wise. So we're one of your biggest trading partners but you're not one of our biggest trading partners.

The idea that Scotland will be better off after a split relies on Scotland keeping all the oil and none of debt - which won't happen. Also probably assumes that big companies headquartered in Scotland will be happy to stay after it drops out of the EU and has no currency of its own - you've already been told you can't have the pound or the Euro. If you want our currency you'll have to be nice to us - that means making concessions

And how are you going to fund all that free higher education and the massive cost of free care for the elderly without us bankrolling it?

If I were Scottish I know what I'd vote for. But as I'm not, go right ahead...

Northwind

Stevo 666 wrote:

I doubt it.

You're forgetting that England and Wales is more that 10 times bigger than Scotland population-wise. So we're one of your biggest trading partners but you're not one of our biggest trading partners.

The idea that Scotland will be better off after a split relies on Scotland keeping all the oil and none of debt - which won't happen. Also probably assumes that big companies headquartered in Scotland will be happy to stay after it drops out of the EU and has no currency of its own - you've already been told you can't have the pound or the Euro. If you want our currency you'll have to be nice to us - that means making concessions

And how are you going to fund all that free higher education and the massive cost of free care for the elderly without us bankrolling it?

Ah, misconceptions...

From the top. First of all, yes Scotland would be one of the UK's biggest trading partners- as it stands, the Republic of Ireland is #5 for exports, to give you an idea of how much more important proximity is than size. It's predicted that Scotland would be #4 post independence.

Scotland absolutely doesn't depend on taking "all the oil and none of the debt", I think I've put numbers earlier in the thread but Scotland with a proportional split of the debt and oil comes out substantially better off. Scotland with a fair split of both comes out better off still, and with our oil and none of the debt, much better off.

Yes we've been told we can't have the pound, but everyone knows that's mince- the UK can't stop it. Though using the pound with no currency union is pretty undesirable IMO. What they can stop, is currency union. But as you say that's a key point of negotiation- as is the national debt, which as mentioned we're under no obligation to take a penny of. Does the rUK want all of the costs of doing business across a currency barrier, in addition to an instant overnight 10% increase in the national debt and corresponding increase in deficit? Not to mention destabilising the pound with a lack of liquidity as we wander off with our share of the reserves.

Oh, you don't currently bankroll free education, prescriptions etc- the UK government just likes to pretend to, by taking scottish revenue then giving it back. Yes Scotland receives more public funding than the UK average but actually provides slightly more revenue in return. (The Scottish higher education system more than pays for itself, it's bizarre to hear it claimed as a drain on resources. The impact of UKBA/Home Office visa madness does cost us a fortune though.)

The UK government would like you to think it holds all the cards but in reality, while Scotland only holds a couple, they're pretty big- the national debt alone is an ace worth up to £130 billion pounds.

Stevo_666

Northwind wrote:

[with our oil and none of the debt, much better off.

Misconceptions - you think it's your oil, it's not. You might think you're entitled to it because its closer to you but that's different. In the end it was mostly non Scottish companies that invested the billions to get the benefits so I'm sure you buy the rights off off us if the price is high enough. Where's you legal right to tax our oil if we don't agree?

And all our debt? How much was the cost of bailing out Royal Bank of Scotland? Again it'll come down to negotiation and you won't have it all your own way, far from it. There will be negoitiations but in the end we're the bigger kid in the playground - by a long way. If you want some oil, you can take some debt.

Currency, well I suppose you can keep on using the pound like small caribbean islands use the dollar. We'll set the interest rates for sterling and the policies that affect exchange rates and Scotland will just have to put up with whatever we decide. That's not really the proud independent Scotland of the future, is it?

Northwind

Stevo 666 wrote:

Misconceptions - you think it's your oil, it's not. You might think you're entitled to it because its closer to you but that's different.

No, it is legally our oil- nobody seriously disputes this, the law of territorial waters and economic exclusivity is long established. TBH I don't think you have the slightest clue what you're talking about, if you'd even read this thread you'd know better than this.

stubs

You can have the oil and a zero % share of the national debt as long as you take on RBS and HBOS. You just owe the British people all the money that kept that bunch of shysters out of prison ;-)

Northwind

HBOS are part of Lloyds, which isn't based in Scotland So yarbles to you. (I worked for HBOS before the crunch, and tbh it wasn't a Scottish company then either, officially it was a merger between Halifax and BOS but nobody believed that)

Thing is, the Scottish government's starting point has always been that we're looking for a fair deal, after all Scotland doesn't benefit from an rUK in another financial crisis. The assumption was always that we'd take on our share of the debt, but on the understanding that this is something we're offering, in return for things we want. Both countries are best served by a mutually acceptable and fair solution. But the UK government seems to have forgotten all this, or rather just wants to pretend it's not the case so they can make arguments against independence.

Bear in mind, the UK also supported banks elsewhere, especially the republic, and the US supported UK banks. And the UK benefited from the bailout probably just as much as Scotland- sure a lot of the RBOS and BOS (but not H) jobs are in Scotland but the impact on the economy from a collapse would have been national.

Stevo_666

Northwind wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Misconceptions - you think it's your oil, it's not. You might think you're entitled to it because its closer to you but that's different.

No, it is legally our oil- nobody seriously disputes this, the law of territorial waters and economic exclusivity is long established. TBH I don't think you have the slightest clue what you're talking about, if you'd even read this thread you'd know better than this.

I think you'll find that it legally belongs to the company that extracts the stuff. If I dig something valuable up in my back garden it doesn't belong to 'the UK' does it :roll:

The other slight flaw in what you claim is that it's difficult for oil to belong to a country that doesn't actually exist

You're good at quoting stuff as if it's fact when it's not.

Northwind

Stevo 666 wrote:

I think you'll find that it legally belongs to the company that extracts the stuff. If I dig something valuable up in my back garden it doesn't belong to 'the UK' does it :roll: You're good at quoting stuff as if it's fact when it's not.

Eh go on then, do you fancy backing that up?

While we're on the subject, look up the law on "treasure trove" to find out what actually happens if you dig up something valuable in your back garden And then, realise that actually, that's not at all relevant anyway because you own your back garden, whereas we (the nation) own the sea bed and mineral rights thereof.

(also, how confident are you that you own the land under your garden?

Stevo_666

Northwind wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I think you'll find that it legally belongs to the company that extracts the stuff. If I dig something valuable up in my back garden it doesn't belong to 'the UK' does it :roll: You're good at quoting stuff as if it's fact when it's not.

Eh go on then, do you fancy backing that up?

You what?

Let's take BP shall we. BP extract the oil, and it's theirs to sell. The oil is not sold by Scotland is it.

Honestly....

Northwind

Ye gods... BP pay the country for the extraction rights, so yes it belongs to them once they've paid for it. Do you think oil companies just stick a hole in the ground and whatever they find belongs to them?

If you'd like to get a bit informed you could read up on EEZs- then you'll understand both why, yes, it's the UK's oil and why after independence, it will be Scotland's. And yes, once an oil company has paid for the privilege they can drill for it and take it.

coulddobetter

We're doomed ........look what happened at the cycling world championship s without Chris Hoy.

poah

coulddobetter wrote:

We're doomed ........look what happened at the cycling world championship s without Chris Hoy.

people gave even less of a rats ass about it

Northwind

It'll be the same for ice-bowling, you mark my words.

Thewaylander

One thing you can say about the scotts, they are good at tossing there cabers...

welshkev

yeah they're all a bunch of caber tossers I'd heard

adamfo

stubs wrote:

POAH wrote:

not including oil and gas we exported almost 24 billion pounds worth of stuff abroad and 45 billion to the rest of the UK

When your independent and outside the EU for however long it takes to apply and be accepted arent you guys risking that 45 billion to the UK. Dont know anything about importing into the EU but I bet it involves a shoot load of paperwork and extra costs. Not saying that 45 billion of business will disappear but even say 10% of customers in the UK go somewhere else in the EU thats a whopping bite out of the legendary oil money.

I export stuff to Germany, there is no additional paperwork. The EU is a single market. In fact, in my case, shipping costs are cheaper as I have an account with DHL which works out cheaper than shipping across the UK via Parcelforce.
Germany is the UK's biggest export market (circa $53 billion in 2012) and the UK Germany's second biggest export market ($104 billion in 2012). Using a different currency has not hindered that relationship to any great extent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Germany

markhewitt1978

It would be pretty crappy for Scotland if they vote no for independence, then the UK leaves the EU. After all that fuss about being part of the EU! They are more likely to stay in if they do go independent.

Stevo_666

Look you lot, we'd better stop distracting the caber tossers from working hard, after all the fate of the entire English and Welsh economy rests on their shoulders

Northwind

markhewitt1978 wrote:

It would be pretty crappy for Scotland if they vote no for independence, then the UK leaves the EU. After all that fuss about being part of the EU! They are more likely to stay in if they do go independent.

It is funny that... "No Scotland, you might not be able to get into the EU and if you don't, you'll be dooooooomed. PS we're having a vote on leaving the EU and like with every other UK vote, it'll be decided by the English. Don't have nightmares!"

coulddobetter

Let them go .......... BBC weather forecasts would then get better for areas that concern the majority of the population

solosuperia

Isn't the the word independence a bit of a misnomer.
As a ordinary English punter I don't feel independent, my life is governed by so many factors outside my control.....
EU, Government, Bakers (That should read Bankers..... But not getting a nice pain au raisin!!!!), Vagaries of the world completely outside my control and influence.
Does it really drastically affect any of us Scot or English in the long run?
I do see it costing us, tax payers a few bob organising the split, but any major change for your man in the street no.