Giro stage 18 **SPOILER**

goonz
goonz Posts: 3,106
edited May 2013 in Pro race
So today is a nice brisk 20km uphill sprint. Most likely going to suit the the moutain climbers as it will possibly be too long and too steep for the punchy riders?

10% at its steepest for these guys should take probably 30 mins? Or is that too quick?

Some odds

Alex doswett is 400-1
Heneo 80-1
Scarponi 22-1
Nibali – evens!

Not sure who could take this, will Evans give it some or will Nibs manage things all the way to the finish?
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Comments

  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Think Nibali will win as he's clearly climbing brilliantly, Evans will be fairly close because he knows how to gauge his efforts in this sort of event. Don't think we'll see any really massive changes in the GC.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • petemadoc
    petemadoc Posts: 2,331
    tappa_dettagli_tecnici_altimetria_18.jpg

    Shame Wiggins isn't here for this one
  • Crozza
    Crozza Posts: 991
    be interesting to see the choice of bikes for this one
  • goonz
    goonz Posts: 3,106
    Crozza wrote:
    be interesting to see the choice of bikes for this one

    My guess is they will use their normal bikes?

    Did you see the TOC TT where loads of riders change up bikes midway through the stage at the uphill section...
    Scott Speedster S20 Roadie for Speed
    Specialized Hardrock MTB for Lumps
    Specialized Langster SS for Ease
    Cinelli Mash Bolt Fixed for Pain
    n+1 is well and truly on track
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  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    I haven't seen it on a map so don't know how technical it is, but it looks like quite a steady climb, with no huge changes in gradient or very steep sections.

    Wiggins used a normal road bike with TT bars added to win on the Col d"Eze, so imagine we might see quite a few going for this option.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • Crozza
    Crozza Posts: 991
  • dsoutar
    dsoutar Posts: 1,746
    Start Times (CET):

    1 222 ANDRIATO Rafael BRA VIN 13.12'00"
    2 95 MINGUEZ AYALA Miguel G ESP EUS 13.13'00"
    3 62 BLYTHE Adam G GBR BMC 13.14'00"
    4 12 APPOLLONIO Davide G ITA ALM 13.15'00"
    5 86 MARENTES TORRES Wilson COL COL 13.16'00"
    6 82 AVILA VANEGAS Edwin Alci G COL COL 13.17'00"
    7 106 PICHON Laurent FRA FDJ 13.18'00"
    8 154 KEISSE Iljo BEL OPQ 13.19'00"
    9 219 WAUTERS Willem G BEL VCD 13.20'00"
    10 215 LIGTHART Pim G NED VCD 13.21'00"
    11 167 MOURIS Jens NED OGE 13.22'00"
    12 193 DE BACKER Bert BEL ARG 13.23'00"
    13 135 DEHAES Kenny BEL LTB 13.24'00"
    14 214 LAMMERTINK Maurits G NED VCD 13.25'00"
    15 168 TUFT Svein CAN OGE 13.26'00"
    16 22 ERMETI Giairo ITA AND 13.27'00"
    17 63 CUMMINGS Stephen GBR BMC 13.28'00"
    18 96 TAMOURIDIS Ioannis GRE EUS 13.29'00"
    19 179 SERGENT Jesse G NZL RLT 13.30'00"
    20 124 FERRARI Roberto ITA LAM 13.31'00"
    21 34 GRUZDEV Dmitriy KAZ AST 13.32'00"
    22 112 BELKOV Maxim RUS KAT 13.33'00"
    23 143 DOWSETT Alex G GBR MOV 13.34'00"
    24 102 FISCHER Murilo Antonio BRA FDJ 13.35'00"
    25 133 BULGAC Brian G NED LTB 13.36'00"
    26 162 DURBRIDGE Luke G AUS OGE 13.37'00"
    27 5 HUNTER Robert RSA GRS 13.38'00"
    28 166 MEIER Christian CAN OGE 13.39'00"
    29 3 DEKKER Thomas NED GRS 13.40'00"
    30 94 MESTRE Ricardo POR EUS 13.41'00"
    31 66 OSS Daniel ITA BMC 13.42'00"
    32 45 CANOLA Marco G ITA BAR 13.43'00"
    33 13 BELLETTI Manuel ITA ALM 13.44'00"
    34 49 ZARDINI Edoardo G ITA BAR 13.45'00"
    35 177 POPOVYCH Yaroslav UKR RLT 13.46'00"
    36 43 BOEM Nicola G ITA BAR 13.47'00"
    37 185 PATE Danny USA SKY 13.48'00"
    38 58 TJALLINGII Maarten NED BLA 13.49'00"
    39 199 TIMMER Albert NED ARG 13.50'00"
    40 159 VERMOTE Julien G BEL OPQ 13.51'00"
    41 175 NIZZOLO Giacomo G ITA RLT 13.52'00"
    42 151 CAVENDISH Mark GBR OPQ 13.53'00"
    43 79 WURF Cameron AUS CAN 13.54'00"
    44 212 BOLE Grega SLO VCD 13.55'00"
    45 205 CHRISTENSEN Mads DEN TST 13.56'00"
    46 156 PINEAU Jérome FRA OPQ 13.57'00"
    47 132 BELLEMAKERS Dirk NED LTB 13.58'00"
    48 41 MODOLO Sacha ITA BAR 13.59'00"
    49 152 BRAMBILLA Gianluca ITA OPQ 14.00'00"
    50 198 MEZGEC Luka G SLO ARG 14.01'00"
    51 165 LANCASTER Brett AUS OGE 14.02'00"
    52 171 BENNETT George G NZL RLT 14.03'00"
    53 127 POZZATO Filippo ITA LAM 14.04'00"
    54 78 VIVIANI Elia G ITA CAN 14.05'00"
    55 39 ZEITS Andrey KAZ AST 14.06'00"
    56 72 DALL'ANTONIA Tiziano ITA CAN 14.07'00"
    57 74 MARANGONI Alan ITA CAN 14.08'00"
    58 139 WILLEMS Frederik BEL LTB 14.09'00"
    59 113 BRUTT Pavel RUS KAT 14.10'00"
    60 142 COBO ACEBO Juan Jose ESP MOV 14.11'00"
    61 104 LE BON Johan G FRA FDJ 14.12'00"
    62 197 LUDVIGSSON Tobias G SWE ARG 14.13'00"
    63 158 TRENTIN Matteo G ITA OPQ 14.14'00"
    64 221 GARZELLI Stefano ITA VIN 14.15'00"
    65 9 VANDEVELDE Christian USA GRS 14.16'00"
    66 203 BOARO Manuele ITA TST 14.17'00"
    67 138 REYNES MIMO Vicente ESP LTB 14.18'00"
    68 37 TIRALONGO Paolo ITA AST 14.19'00"
    69 136 DOCKX Gert G BEL LTB 14.20'00"
    70 172 HONDO Danilo GER RLT 14.21'00"
    71 75 SABATINI Fabio ITA CAN 14.22'00"
    72 213 KEIZER Martijn G NED VCD 14.23'00"
    73 47 LOCATELLI Stefano G ITA BAR 14.24'00"
    74 16 BONNAFOND Guillaume FRA ALM 14.25'00"
    75 226 PRONI Alessandro ITA VIN 14.26'00"
    76 189 ZANDIO ECHAIDE Xabier ESP SKY 14.27'00"
    77 36 KESSIAKOFF Fredrik Carl W SWE AST 14.28'00"
    78 209 SUTHERLAND Rory AUS TST 14.29'00"
    79 131 BAK Lars Ytting DEN LTB 14.30'00"
    80 46 COLBRELLI Sonny G ITA BAR 14.31'00"
    81 77 SARMIENTO TUNARROSA C COL CAN 14.32'00"
    82 225 GATTO Oscar ITA VIN 14.33'00"
    83 147 LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo ESP MOV 14.34'00"
    84 83 CHALAPUD GOMEZ Robinso COL COL 14.35'00"
    85 76 SALERNO Cristiano ITA CAN 14.36'00"
    86 99 VRECER Robert SLO EUS 14.37'00"
    87 69 WYSS Danilo SUI BMC 14.38'00"
    88 7 NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas G LTU GRS 14.39'00"
    89 218 VEUCHELEN Frederik BEL VCD 14.40'00"
    90 107 ROLLIN Dominique CAN FDJ 14.41'00"
    91 126 PIETROPOLLI Daniele ITA LAM 14.42'00"
    92 141 CAPECCHI Eros ITA MOV 14.43'00"
    93 194 DE KORT Koen NED ARG 14.44'00"
    94 195 GRETSCH Patrick GER ARG 14.45'00"
    95 211 MARCATO Marco ITA VCD 14.46'00"
    96 137 HANSEN Adam AUS LTB 14.47'00"
    97 176 OLIVEIRA Nelson Filipe G POR RLT 14.48'00"
    98 85 DUQUE Leonardo Fabio COL COL 14.49'00"
    99 155 PAUWELS Serge BEL OPQ 14.50'00"
    100 98 VERDUGO MARCOTEGUI Gor ESP EUS 14.51'00"
    101 186 PUCCIO Salvatore G ITA SKY 14.52'00"
    102 44 BONGIORNO Francesco Ma G ITA BAR 14.53'00"
    103 115 GUSEV Vladimir RUS KAT 14.54'00"
    104 123 DURASEK Kristijan CRO LAM 14.55'00"
    105 184 KNEES Christian GER SKY 14.56'00"
    106 57 MARTENS Paul GER BLA 14.57'00"
    107 73 LONGO BORGHINI Paolo ITA CAN 14.58'00"
    108 164 KEUKELEIRE Jens G BEL OGE 14.59'00"
    109 208 PIRES Bruno POR TST 15.00'00"
    110 182 CATALDO Dario ITA SKY 15.01'00"
    111 148 VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisc ESP MOV 15.02'00"
    112 129 STORTONI Simone ITA LAM 15.03'00"
    113 2 DANIELSON Thomas USA GRS 15.04'00"
    114 227 RABOTTINI Matteo ITA VIN 15.05'00"
    115 153 GOLAS Michal POL OPQ 15.06'00"
    116 111 PAOLINI Luca ITA KAT 15.07'00"
    117 53 CLEMENT Stef NED BLA 15.08'00"
    118 8 STETINA Peter USA GRS 15.09'00"
    119 216 RUIJGH Rob NED VCD 15.10'00"
    120 29 SELLA Emanuele ITA AND 15.11'00"
    121 18 GASTAUER Ben LUX ALM 15.12'00"
    122 192 DAMUSEAU Thomas G FRA ARG 15.13'00"
    123 26 RODRIGUEZ Jackson VEN AND 15.14'00"
    124 28 RUBIANO CHAVEZ Miguel A COL AND 15.15'00"
    125 48 PIRAZZI Stefano ITA BAR 15.16'00"
    126 33 ARU Fabio G ITA AST 15.17'00"
    127 88 PANTANO Jarlinson G COL COL 15.18'00"
    128 146 KARPETS Vladimir RUS MOV 15.19'00"
    129 23 FELLINE Fabio G ITA AND 15.20'00"
    130 169 WEENING Pieter NED OGE 15.21'00"
    131 116 IGNATENKO Petr RUS KAT 15.22'00"
    132 32 AGNOLI Valerio ITA AST 15.23'00"
    133 114 CARUSO Giampaolo ITA KAT 15.24'00"
    134 65 MORABITO Steve SUI BMC 15.25'00"
    135 187 SIUTSOU Kanstantsin BLR SKY 15.26'00"
    136 92 AZANZA SOTO Jorge ESP EUS 15.27'00"
    137 174 MACHADO Tiago POR RLT 15.28'00"
    138 149 VISCONTI Giovanni ITA MOV 15.29'00"
    139 68 SANTAROMITA Ivan ITA BMC 15.30'00"
    140 17 DUPONT Hubert FRA ALM 15.31'00"
    141 54 GARATE Juan Manuel ESP BLA 15.32'00"
    142 84 DUARTE AREVALO Fabio An COL COL 15.33'00"
    143 217 VALLS FERRI Rafael ESP VCD 15.34'00"
    144 27 ROSA Diego G ITA AND 15.35'00"
    145 144 HERRADA LOPEZ Jose' ESP MOV 15.36'00"
    146 128 SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo COL LAM 15.37'00"
    147 224 DI LUCA Danilo ITA VIN 15.38'00"
    148 56 KRUIJSWIJK Steven NED BLA 15.39'00"
    149 71 CARUSO Damiano ITA CAN 15.40'00"
    150 93 MARTINEZ DE ESTEBAN Ego ESP EUS 15.41'00"
    151 105 MOUREY Francis FRA FDJ 15.42'00"
    152 134 DE GREEF Francis BEL LTB 15.43'00"
    153 81 ATAPUMA HURTADO Darwin G COL COL 15.44'00"
    154 207 PETROV Evgeni RUS TST 15.45'00"
    155 55 KELDERMAN Wilco G NED BLA 15.46'00"
    156 183 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Lu COL SKY 15.47'00"
    157 118 TROFIMOV Yury RUS KAT 15.48'00"
    158 91 SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samue ESP EUS 15.51'00"
    159 173 KISERLOVSKI Robert CRO RLT 15.54'00"
    160 21 PELLIZOTTI Franco ITA AND 15.57'00"
    161 35 KANGERT Tanel EST AST 16.00'00"
    162 11 POZZOVIVO Domenico ITA ALM 16.03'00"
    163 51 GESINK Robert NED BLA 16.06'00"
    164 145 INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Be ESP MOV 16.09'00"
    165 201 MAJKA Rafal G POL TST 16.12'00"
    166 15 BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos A. G COL ALM 16.15'00"
    167 228 SANTAMBROGIO Mauro ITA VIN 16.18'00"
    168 125 NIEMIEC Przemyslaw POL LAM 16.21'00"
    169 121 SCARPONI Michele ITA LAM 16.24'00"
    170 188 URAN URAN Rigoberto COL SKY 16.27'00"
    171 61 EVANS Cadel AUS BMC 16.30'00"
    172 31 NIBALI Vincenzo ITA AST 16.33'00"
  • Macaloon
    Macaloon Posts: 5,545
    Uran could use a good result here to cement his place above Wiggo on the Sky GC leaderboard :P
    ...a rare 100% loyal Pro Race poster. A poster boy for the community.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    edited May 2013
    Apparently it's tougher than the profile suggests. One of our own technical correspondents on the scene has described it as a "a bugger of a TT course".
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • knedlicky
    knedlicky Posts: 3,097
    Coincidentally, the TT stage of the Tour of Japan is also today. Or was, they will have finished by now.

    8777488047_30507df7e9_o.jpg
    8777487881_c3c38954c0_o.jpg

    About 950 m climbing in 11.4 km up the side of the Fujisan mountain.

    (previous winners of Tour of Japan included Cameron Meyer, recently in the Tour of California, and Sergio Pardilla, currently in the Tour of Bavaria)
  • goonz
    goonz Posts: 3,106
    Is that very steep?
    Scott Speedster S20 Roadie for Speed
    Specialized Hardrock MTB for Lumps
    Specialized Langster SS for Ease
    Cinelli Mash Bolt Fixed for Pain
    n+1 is well and truly on track
    Strava http://app.strava.com/athletes/1608875
  • Macaloon
    Macaloon Posts: 5,545
    edited May 2013
    goonz wrote:
    Is that very steep?

    The Japanese (all of them) say: "A wise man climbs Mt Fuji once, a fool twice". In the climbing season (July/August) it's a roped-off cordoned slog that you take in darkness to welcome the rising sun from the crater. Looks like the TT finish was half-way up.
    Edit: Looked for race photos, but it turns out it's tomorrow, 24th May.
    194118.jpg
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  • edhornby
    edhornby Posts: 1,780
    I would bet there will be a lot of road bikes - especially if at all windy... Uran could be a good bet for a win but the safe odds are right to be with Nibali
    "I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, how good is that"
    --Jens Voight
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,207
    goonz wrote:
    So today is a nice brisk 20km uphill sprint. Most likely going to suit the the moutain climbers as it will possibly be too long and too steep for the punchy riders?

    10% at its steepest for these guys should take probably 30 mins? Or is that too quick?

    Some odds

    Alex doswett is 400-1
    Heneo 80-1
    Scarponi 22-1
    Nibali – evens!

    Not sure who could take this, will Evans give it some or will Nibs manage things all the way to the finish?

    Think you are way out on that time guess, I'd say more like 50 minutes.
  • Crozza
    Crozza Posts: 991
    Since I am now completely neutral I hope Evans manages to take enough time out of Nibs to make the last couple of days interesting
  • knedlicky
    knedlicky Posts: 3,097
    goonz wrote:
    Is that very steep?
    In the Japan TT, the average is 8.3% with clearly steeper sections about kms 5-6, about 14-15% perhaps

    By comparison, at the Giro the average is about 5%, with 10% steepest. But almost twice as long.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Pross wrote:
    goonz wrote:
    So today is a nice brisk 20km uphill sprint. Most likely going to suit the the moutain climbers as it will possibly be too long and too steep for the punchy riders?

    10% at its steepest for these guys should take probably 30 mins? Or is that too quick?

    Some odds

    Alex doswett is 400-1
    Heneo 80-1
    Scarponi 22-1
    Nibali – evens!

    Not sure who could take this, will Evans give it some or will Nibs manage things all the way to the finish?

    Think you are way out on that time guess, I'd say more like 50 minutes.

    Dan Lloyd reckons about 40 mins for the winner.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • danlikesbikes
    danlikesbikes Posts: 3,898
    edited May 2013
    Cav ready for the start he's on a rode bike today & by the looks a few others too in the background.
    Pain hurts much less if its topped off with beating your mates to top of a climb.
  • kleinstroker
    kleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    first splits...
  • danlikesbikes
    danlikesbikes Posts: 3,898
    Miguel Minguez sets the benchmark time to beat of 48:55
    Pain hurts much less if its topped off with beating your mates to top of a climb.
  • goonz
    goonz Posts: 3,106
    Nice time by Cummings, good to see Brits doing well in TT..
    Scott Speedster S20 Roadie for Speed
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  • Le Commentateur
    Le Commentateur Posts: 4,099
    Stg18mappa_zps44297865.png~original

    Gets twisty nearing the end. First section of climbing looks a slog.
  • kleinstroker
    kleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    more in...
  • Le Commentateur
    Le Commentateur Posts: 4,099
    Cummings 47:08 - currently fastest time.
  • ContrelaMontre
    ContrelaMontre Posts: 3,027
    Cummings 47:08

    Good for Evans to have a teammate set a decent time early on.

    Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster
  • danlikesbikes
    danlikesbikes Posts: 3,898
    Dowsett was +2:48 on the line but suffered a mechanical & had to change his bike. Started on TT bike but moved over to road bike.
    Pain hurts much less if its topped off with beating your mates to top of a climb.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,741
    It's a bit dull.............................and the weather is overcast, too.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • LeicesterLad
    LeicesterLad Posts: 3,908
    It's a bit dull.............................and the weather is overcast, too.

    Cuz it's a TT 'innit
  • doug5_10
    doug5_10 Posts: 465
    Pippo Pozzato's Sidi's . . . . WANT!
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  • goonz
    goonz Posts: 3,106
    It's a bit dull.............................and the weather is overcast, too.

    Cuz it's a TT 'innit

    And its uphill!
    Scott Speedster S20 Roadie for Speed
    Specialized Hardrock MTB for Lumps
    Specialized Langster SS for Ease
    Cinelli Mash Bolt Fixed for Pain
    n+1 is well and truly on track
    Strava http://app.strava.com/athletes/1608875