Milan San Remo - Pre Race Chat Thread

tailwindhome

5 more big sleeps.


Anybody think Sagan won't win his first classic on Sunday?

RichN95.

TailWindHome wrote:

Anybody think Sagan won't win his first classic on Sunday?

Not the bookies, that's for sure:

Sagan 6/5
Cavendish 8/1
Goss 13/1
Cancellara 13/1
Pozzato 17/1
Gilbert 22/1
Greipel 22/1
Nibali 25/1
Hushovd 28/1
Hagen 28/1

(From Bet 365)

danlikesbikes

I think he can be beaten but if other teams drag him through rather than tire him out and make him work on his current form we might be seeing him kiss the guns again

DeadCalm

No real value there. Hushovd at a push given his showing on the last TA road stage but it's difficult to imagine a scenario where he'd be in a sprint and Sagan wouldn't unless Sagan had some kind of major problem.

mroli

Goss can outsprint him though.

iainf72

Chance of snow it seems.

I reckon Cavendish is trying to play a head game with this "I can't win" lark.

But Sagan is the 5* fave. Which means Moser will win

danlikesbikes

The weather could really shake things up if they do get snow, anyone know if the local weather reports are as good as those at home? i.e. your better sticking your head out of the window and looking yourself.

FJS

There's plenty of scenarios where Sagan doesn't win.

He's such a big favourite that Cannondale will have to do a lot of the work, and 300 km is very long to control the race. There's rain and wind forecast. A good chance it'll be a chaotic race difficult to control with a successful break. Sagan is strong, but he can't react to everything.

There is a chance Moser can use the fact that everyone is looking at Sagan again and do a Devolder

And if it is a bunch sprint, plenty who can beat Sagan

It's a one-day race, it's unpredictable.

Richmond Racer

FJS wrote:

There's plenty of scenarios where Sagan doesn't win.

He's such a big favourite that Cannondale will have to do a lot of the work, and 300 km is very long to control the race. There's rain and wind forecast. A good chance it'll be a chaotic race difficult to control with a successful break. Sagan is strong, but he can't react to everything.

There is a chance Moser can use the fact that everyone is looking at Sagan again and do a Devolder

And if it is a bunch sprint, plenty who can beat Sagan

It's a one-day race, it's unpredictable.

I'm with FJS on this. Cav was the 5 star fave too last year. Every other team vs Sagan? I'd have no problem with that.

RichN95.

Moser's 33/1 if you fancy a flutter

rick_chasey

Moser won't last 300km.

ddraver

Is he your new Sagan Rick?

cal_stewart

It think sagan's problem is the route is not hard enough, its not unthinkable that better sprinters are left with him.

As a outsider I think John Degenkolb is a good outside bet with dare I say it Tyler Farrar who finished the 62 on stage 6 of TA when other sprinters binned it, he must of been riding for a reason.

rick_chasey

Sagan hasn't won a classic yet.


Massive favourite. There are enough teams there who want to hold it together and Sagan can also follow any Poggio moves.

frenchfighter

"I'm a favourite every year and then never win. We'll see what happens this year," he said.

"Milano-Sanremo is difficult to win. If you make just one mistake, if you crash, if it rains or of the bunch splits, anything can happen. You can't plan before the race, in cycling you've got to go with your instinct. In the last few years the rider who won was not 10 ten favourites.

However when asked by Cyclingnews how he would beat a rider like Peter Sagan, he couldn't stop himself from saying jokingly: "Perhaps it's better if they don't start..."

--

"I'm feeling good and I'll be up there to play my cards," he warned.

"I'll try and do a good result but its difficult predict how the race will go. My problem is that it's not suited to me because I'm not a fast finisher. I've got to come up with something special. I've got the courage to try something."

On Monday, Nibali hinted that he will try a move between the Cipressa and Poggio climbs. However he is wary of several of the big-name favourites.

"I saw a lot of riders riding well this week," he said.

"Cavendish worked a lot for the team the other day and rode hard on the climb, showing he was riding well. Sagan looked good, Hushovd too and Cancellara too has be watched. Maybe someone from Paris-Nice will win too. The last two winners of Milano-Sanremo rode Paris-Nice. Milano-Sanremo is a lottery but I'll give it a go, just like I did here."

above_the_cows

Richmond Racer wrote:

Every other team vs Sagan?

But I thought it was every other team versus Sky?

Anything can happen in this race. All we know is that:

1. Cav says he can't win it and yet he's riding it, so if he really couldn't win it (and he said he couldn't win it in 2009 and did) why are the team taking him? Yes, yes I know it is Cav and you might want to avoid a temper tantrum but he's also a professional and I would have thought he wouldn't take up a place that could go to someone more useful. Of course the sponsors could want him there but he's hardly a good wind break and he's not going to force a decisive split on one of the hills. He and OPQS must think he has at least a chance if it comes down to a sprint and he makes it over the Poggio near the front.

2. Sagan is looking really strong (when has he not come to think of it?).

3. Lots of other people are also looking good.

4. This race often throws up a surprise.

Richmond Racer

Above The Cows wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Every other team vs Sagan?

But I thought it was every other team versus Sky?

Anything can happen in this race. All we know is that:

1. Cav says he can't win it and yet he's riding it, so if he really couldn't win it (and he said he couldn't win it in 2009 and did) why are the team taking him? Yes, yes I know it is Cav and you might want to avoid a temper tantrum but he's also a professional and I would have thought he wouldn't take up a place that could go to someone more useful. Of course the sponsors could want him there but he's hardly a good wind break and he's not going to force a decisive split on one of the hills. He and OPQS must think he has at least a chance if it comes down to a sprint and he makes it over the Poggio near the front.

2. Sagan is looking really strong (when has he not come to think of it?).

3. Lots of other people are also looking good.

4. This race often throws up a surprise.

Last year's race it was everyone vs Cav & Sky - ironically IIRC it was Sagan's team who led the stomping of the pedals as soon as word got through that that he was in a bit of trouble. Think a lot of effort will go into trying to repeat this, as well as trying to find a key to cracking Sagan - cos no one believes Cav's protests that he's not a contender ('fool me once, and all that')

Anyone think Hushovd has a chance?

danlikesbikes

Richmond Racer wrote:

Anyone think Hushovd has a chance?

I would so love for him to be up there. Hard to tell how he's going but with a small team to help him if he's there for the last 2 climbs think he could solo away on the descents with his skills

Richmond Racer

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Anyone think Hushovd has a chance?

I would so love for him to be up there. Hard to tell how he's going but with a small team to help him if he's there for the last 2 climbs think he could solo away on the descents with his skills

He won first stage at Haut-Var, and placed 9th on Stage 6 on Sun, so seems to be going well...

greasedscotsman

Danlikesbikes wrote:

I would so love for him to be up there. Hard to tell how he's going but with a small team to help him if he's there for the last 2 climbs think he could solo away on the descents with his skills

That should be skillz.

ddraver

Hushovd has a better than average change I'd say just because people might forget about him in their hurry to despatch Sagan or Cav.

Not sure who I'd bet on in a Sagan vs Hushovd Showdown...

Just realised I'm not going to be able to do my old club's sportive the morning beforehand either

wombly_knees

Would like to see a decent performance from Ciolek. He'll not win, he'll likely not top 10, not top 20 or maybe even top 50, but I'm still looking forward to him racing.

tailwindhome

Thor must be looking at Boonen and Cancellara and thinking his time has come for Paris Roubaix.

danlikesbikes

greasedscotsman wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

I would so love for him to be up there. Hard to tell how he's going but with a small team to help him if he's there for the last 2 climbs think he could solo away on the descents with his skills

That should be skillz.

Too old for that shizzle

Richmond Racer

TailWindHome wrote:

Thor must be looking at Boonen and Cancellara and thinking his time has come for Paris Roubaix.

Yeah, but sod's law that Garmin's Classics squad might be a bit depleted this year - Vanmarcke's at Blanco, Nuyens entire classics campagn looks scuppered, Haussler's at IAM, even Millar's had a late start to his season

above_the_cows

Richmond Racer wrote:

Last year's race it was everyone vs Cav & Sky - ironically IIRC it was Sagan's team who led the stomping of the pedals as soon as word got through that that he was in a bit of trouble. Think a lot of effort will go into trying to repeat this, as well as trying to find a key to cracking Sagan - cos no one believes Cav's protests that he's not a contender ('fool me once, and all that')

Anyone think Hushovd has a chance?

Liquigas (as was then) absolutely drilled it but I think that was more for Nibbles than for Sagan no?

As for Hushovd I'd almost completely forgotten about his existence but he could sneak it if people are too busy marking Sagan, Cav et.al. Talking about people I'd nearly forgotten about what about Haussler? If it snows? He likes the chilly weather.

OK so if this year it won't be everyone versus Sky, what about someone from Sky? EBH or Thomas from a select group that gets away on the Poggio?

disgruntledgoat

Haussler- Done
Thomas- Not hard enough for him
EBH- Too long for him

Next!

above_the_cows

disgruntledgoat wrote:

EBH- Too long for him

Next!

I thought they were supposed to have sorted that? He managed at the worlds.

Richmond Racer

Above The Cows wrote:

disgruntledgoat wrote:

EBH- Too long for him

Next!

I thought they were supposed to have sorted that? He managed at the worlds.

Silver medal would seem to confirm that's been sorted.

Come on DG, you're so, like, 2011

Turfle

This is the one big classic I think Sagan is odds on favourite for.

Sagan, Nibali, Cance, Albasini to get away. Sagan to win the sprint.

Degenkolb or EBH could follow the attacks and win the sprint, but I don't know what form they're in.

smithy21

I do think EBH is worth a small flutter at 28/1 (covered with an each way on Fab). Having said that I am not sure how EBH can get to the finish in a way that Sagan cant and then beat him.

I struggle to get that excited by M-SR. Too long with not much happening (I know I know- thats cycling).

Last year was good though.