does Bradley Wiggins stand a chance?

135

Comments

  • deal
    deal Posts: 857
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    Depends on how the tactics play out on Saturday, but if the attacks start a few kms after St Esteve (where the gradient really steepens) Wiggins could lose 3 or 4 minutes to the pure climbers on Ventoux. So he would need a sizeable cushion on GC by then to keep a podium place.


    seems that the tt will be key, hopefully he can perform well seems they arent leaving anything to chance
    Rest day today, few of us are talking a helipcopter over to check out the TT course over in Annecy

    http://twitter.com/BradWiggins
  • Bhima
    Bhima Posts: 2,145
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    Wiggins could lose 3 or 4 minutes to the pure climbers on Ventoux.

    I think he showed on Sunday that he's a "pure climber" himself. Well, he's at least on-par with Frank and it looks like Sastre was stuggling to keep up with him. Perhaps some riders (even wiggo) are holding back for that final stage though. It's impossible to tell! There's so much bluffing going on at this year's tour, it's unbelievable! :?
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    I think the idea is that as the mountain stages go on, so the pure climbers come to the fore.

    On a side note, what do people think of Nibali's chances? Not heard people talk about him much but he did finish third the other day. He did well in the first TT last year but had a bit of a shocker in the one on the penultimate day. Maybe with something to go for he will turn in a reasonable performance in the TT and be good enough in the mountains to challenge for the last podium place? Will have Kreuziger and Pellizotti (although he is after the KoM) to help him. He is 1:05 behind Bradley at the moment,

    Does anyone know if heat will be a factor in Bradley's performances? Sunday was relatively cool for a fine day in the Alps in July but temperatures looks like being much higher this week.
  • Le Commentateur
    Le Commentateur Posts: 4,099
    edited July 2009
    I was basing it on the times of riders like Zulle (like Wiggins a time trialler who could climb well) and Vino (also a good TTer), who lost 3 mins to Pantani & Armstrong on Ventoux in 2000. Bobby Julich lost almost 7 minutes on the climb that day. Depends if/where Wiggins cracks I guess.
    Un uomo solo al commando
  • stagehopper
    stagehopper Posts: 1,593
    Cumulonimbus wrote:
    Does anyone know if heat will be a factor in Bradley's performances? Sunday was relatively cool for a fine day in the Alps in July but temperatures looks like being much higher this week.

    His wife was saying on Twitter that he hated the cool wet weather prior to the stage Haussler won.
    @stagehopper
  • knedlicky
    knedlicky Posts: 3,097
    stagehopper wrote:
    Cumulonimbus wrote:
    Does anyone know if heat will be a factor in Bradley's performances? Sunday was relatively cool for a fine day in the Alps in July but temperatures looks like being much higher this week.
    His wife was saying on Twitter that he hated the cool wet weather prior to the stage Haussler won.
    Although a couple of posters above say that it's incorrect (as I wrote) that Wiggins was briefly dropped on the last descent in the Vosges, Mrs BW's statement makes me wonder if the commentary I heard had it right after all. I listened to a French commentary which said both Wiggins and Millar were temporarliy dropped when the descent was in the rain on the narrow wet roads throught the woods.
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    I heard something afterwards about him puncturing and Millar stopping to pace him back?
  • stagehopper
    stagehopper Posts: 1,593
    Cumulonimbus wrote:
    I heard something afterwards about him puncturing and Millar stopping to pace him back?

    That definitely happened - they had pictures of it and Millar and Wiggins confirmed it post-stage. The confusion came because it was claimed Wiggins was dropped on the climb of the Cat 1 Platzerwasel Pass - Phil Liggett on TV comms and the ITV twitter feed suggested as much:

    David Millar and Bradley Wiggins were reported to have been dropped on the ascent 3:11 PM Jul 17th

    The main pack now contains all the riders in the top 10 overall, many who were dropped on the climb have clawed their way back 3:17 PM Jul 17th

    however Eurosport comms didn't mention it and Cath Wiggins was pointing out he was still in the pack. Think it was just the general confusion with the conditions and non-standard rain wear. I watched it back on tape and was certain it was Maaskant getting dropped.

    and here's the later puncture incident:

    David Millar and Bradley Wiggins are riding side by side at the back of the pack 4:21 PM Jul 17th

    Millar was pacing Wiggins back after a puncture at the back, both now comfortable in the peloton and heading for the finish 4:25 PM Jul 17th

    which occurs only a few mins before they finish:

    Followed by the peloton, with all the main contenders crossing the line together4:31 PM Jul 17th
    @stagehopper
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Whatever chance Wiggins really has, in interviews after the stage to Bourg St Maurice today Contador mentions Wiggo as his most dangerous rival now. If you would have suggested that a year ago....
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    It really is amazing and I think Contador says that as he is able to stay with Schleck but also because of his TT.

    If you had bet on him it would have turned out very nicely. I would be interested if anyone knows what the odds were at the start compared to now?
    Contador is the Greatest
  • skavanagh.bikeradar
    skavanagh.bikeradar Posts: 1,097
    Hmmmm, interesting. Tomorrow is obviously shaping up to be big day as it looks hard and there are a few riders scrapping over the podium now. Also the effects of today and tomorrow will influence the TT and importantly Ventoux. We live in interesting times.

    I'm dreaming that Wiggins is still close to Contador and takes time out of him in the TT and then attacks on Ventoux (successful or not). I'm assuming Armstrong will crack tomorrow and not TT as well as Wiggins but be super motivated for Ventoux after his history with it and I'm wishing for a suicide attack by Armstrong on it.

    In reality I'm simply hoping that Wiggins doesn't crack tomorrow or on Ventoux and hangs in there fending off Kloden who will do a TT that is as good or better than Wiggins, Armstrong who will glue himself to Wiggins and A. Schleck who has to take risks tomorrow and on Ventoux (as his TT will likely be crap).
  • Eurostar
    Eurostar Posts: 1,806
    Followed by Wiggo getting away on the Champs Elysses and TTing to victory! Maybe he and DZ could go together - imagine the damage they could do.
    <hr>
    <h6>What\'s the point of going out? We\'re just going to end up back here anyway</h6>
  • Le Commentateur
    Le Commentateur Posts: 4,099
    None, because the official time is taken as they begin those laps of the centre. Only if the leader fails to cross the finish line will the Champs-Elysses crit be a factor.
    Un uomo solo al commando
  • Capo
    Capo Posts: 439
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    None, because the official time is taken as they begin those laps of the centre. Only if the leader fails to cross the finish line will the Champs-Elysses crit be a factor.

    That only happens "if the road surface of the Champs-Elysees becomes slippery before the riders reach it", according to the rules.

    Same rule applies on each subsequent lap, so if it starts hammering down when they are on lap 2, time is taken at the end of that lap.

    They still have to do the full eight laps though.

    In normal conditions, the time when crossing the finish line for the ninth and final time is the one that counts.
    Can\'t drive, won\'t drive
  • Kléber
    Kléber Posts: 6,842
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    None, because the official time is taken as they begin those laps of the centre. Only if the leader fails to cross the finish line will the Champs-Elysses crit be a factor.
    Are you sure? In 2005 Vinokourov jumped the bunch with just over a kilometer to go and in doing this, gained enough time to move from 6th to 5th overall.
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Kléber wrote:
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    None, because the official time is taken as they begin those laps of the centre. Only if the leader fails to cross the finish line will the Champs-Elysses crit be a factor.
    Are you sure? In 2005 Vinokourov jumped the bunch with just over a kilometer to go and in doing this, gained enough time to move from 6th to 5th overall.


    That time was gained through bonus seconds I think
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • Capo
    Capo Posts: 439
    Timoid. wrote:
    That time was gained through bonus seconds I think

    See Article 20(b) on page 39 - the times are only taken early (first or subsequent crossings of finish line) if the road surface of the Champs-Elysees is "slippery":

    http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/COURSE/do ... ent_us.pdf
    Can\'t drive, won\'t drive
  • Capo
    Capo Posts: 439
    Capo wrote:
    Timoid. wrote:
    That time was gained through bonus seconds I think

    See Article 20(b) on page 39 - the times are only taken early (first or subsequent crossings of finish line) if the road surface of the Champs-Elysees is "slippery":

    http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/COURSE/do ... ent_us.pdf


    AHA!

    Timoid is right, would have been bonus seconds (which we don't have any more, of course), that year was a rare case of the race time being taken as the riders crossed line for the first time, this is from the BBC report:

    "Sunday's traditional champagne leg to Paris threatened to turn sour when Armstrong's Discovery Team henchman George Hincapie slid off his bike on rain-swept roads.

    But Armstrong managed to put out his right foot to avoid tumbling into his compatriot.

    And organisers responded by taking the unusual step of stopping the race clock after the first of eight laps through the streets of Paris because of the poor weather."
    Can\'t drive, won\'t drive
  • edhornby
    edhornby Posts: 1,780
    looking at tomorrow - 4 cat 1 climbs and a cat 2 as well.... :shock: :shock: although I would imagine that the GC group will be mostly together with the exception of the last climb but it's not a mountaintop finish so the GC would be unchanged going into the TT

    question is, where would Andy Schleck make up the 1 minute ? on Ventoux and not lose any time on the TT???
    "I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, how good is that"
    --Jens Voight
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,874
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    Depends if/where Wiggins cracks I guess.

    he ain't going to crack.... he is going to drop contador and win the tour :wink:
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Stuey01
    Stuey01 Posts: 1,273
    mididoctors wrote:
    Le Commentateur wrote:
    Depends if/where Wiggins cracks I guess.

    he ain't going to crack.... he is going to drop contador and win the tour :wink:

    That's the spirt! 8)

    Go for it Bradders!
    Not climber, not sprinter, not rouleur
  • munroer
    munroer Posts: 29
    I don't believe Wiggins can stick with Contador when he's really pushing hard, but Brad showed today that A. schleck, Evans and pretty much everyone else is unable to drop him when he doesn't want to be dropped.
    A good time trial Thursday around Annecy could put him close to Contador, but that still doesn't negate the fact that Mont Ventoux is Contadors' chance to put the win in the bag beyond all doubt.
    I'm hopeful that Brad can get a podium, and believe he could even make it a second place, but I think the win has passed him by....this year.
  • Moomaloid
    Moomaloid Posts: 2,040
    If he did.. would the shock and total unexpectedness of it render the achievement even more un reportable to the English media?

    Anyways Brad may be an amazing TT rider, but remember so is Bertie. I think Bertie will try to get some time on Brad tomorrow, its his final chance to put himself out of reach.
  • nick hanson
    nick hanson Posts: 1,655
    Didn't see the after race interviews,but apparently,AC said he needs to get time on Wiggo tomorrow,to get a buffer for the TT.
    Seems even AC rates Bradders.
    Oh well,flying out to Nice airport thurs am,my family are going to text TT updates.Couple of days to get to the Ventoux,a few beers fri nite,hopefully at challet reynard then....bring it on!!!!
    so many cols,so little time!
  • Ocrider
    Ocrider Posts: 19
    I was listening to Luc leBlanc's phone in show on RMC earlier this evening, the debate subject being "Can a track cyclist become a climber?" They tried hard at playing devil's advocate, but with the francaise des jeux team doctor being one of the panel, didnt do too so well. It even became a bit of a Wiggo love-in :D He read off a list of attributes that you need to be a decent climber and then went into how high Wiggo's VO2max is and how his weight loss equated to 20 seconds less per minute up a mountain.

    He went on to claim that Armstrong's climbing up to Verbier was at more or less the same rate as Alpe d'Huez when in his prime and how Contador's was the best 20 minutes climbing on the tour (statistically) in the last 5 years, all very interesting.

    Of course one smartarse then piped up with "oh, he reminds me of Raimondas Rumsas" and the bubble burst. :roll:
  • paulcuthbert
    paulcuthbert Posts: 1,016
    He's doing well. But I hate the fact that the British media are (as always) only talking about British interest at the Tour. None of them mention the Kreuzigers, the Contadors, the Voigts...

    For example, ITV4s highlights coverage today was made up of nearly all Wiggins coverage. A 5 minute interview at the start, 2 minutes action- then commercials. And it was the same at the end of the stage.

    So a British rider can finally cut it with the top GC guys. Big deal! It's about bloody time... Nicholas Roche has finished in the Top 5 on 2 stages and he doesn't get a look in. Pathetic British media!

    ps. Phil Liggett called Wiggins the "hero of the stage", right after Armstrong had spectacularly closed a 2km gap on the leaders. Wiggins had ridden tempo all day. Go figure!
    The most painful climb in Northern Ireland http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs200.snc1/6776_124247198694_548863694_2335754_8016178_n.jpg
  • stagehopper
    stagehopper Posts: 1,593
    paulcuthbert wrote:
    ps. Phil Liggett called Wiggins the "hero of the stage", right after Armstrong had spectacularly closed a 2km gap on the leaders.!

    Were you watching a diffrent stage?
    @stagehopper
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,241
    paulcuthbert wrote:
    He's doing well. But I hate the fact that the British media are (as always) only talking about British interest at the Tour. None of them mention the Kreuzigers, the Contadors, the Voigts...

    So let me get this straight. Britain has a rider on the verge of being the first British rider on the podium for the first time in the race's 106 year history and you want the British media to focus on a Czech bloke in 12th position who hasn't done much of note?

    Contador gets mentioned a lot and ITV usually have an interview with him, but they get more time with Wiggins and don't need a translator.

    Voigt got mentioned today and will tomorrow. On most stages he's been fairly quiet.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • paulcuthbert
    paulcuthbert Posts: 1,016
    No, I don't want them to focus on anyone. That's my point. Cycling is a team sport- not an individual one. Why should one guy get so much focus just because he's improved at the job he is paid to do?

    ps. Didn't Robert Millar win the King of the Mountains competition and end up on a podium once...
    The most painful climb in Northern Ireland http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs200.snc1/6776_124247198694_548863694_2335754_8016178_n.jpg
  • paulcuthbert
    paulcuthbert Posts: 1,016
    RichN95 wrote:
    Contador gets mentioned a lot and ITV usually have an interview with him, but they get more time with Wiggins and don't need a translator

    I can't be the only person to find Bradley Wiggins HUGELY boring, can i? He could at least be happy about his position. He's as dour as a cows arse
    The most painful climb in Northern Ireland http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs200.snc1/6776_124247198694_548863694_2335754_8016178_n.jpg

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