does Bradley Wiggins stand a chance?
Comments
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Bhima wrote:To answer the original question...
This is how things stand now:
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 63:17:56
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:01:37
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:01:46
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:02:17
Contador broke away with 5km to go and did it in just under 15 minutes.
Bradley finished 1:46 behind Alberto today so you could say that he's 11.7% slower than Alberto on the hills. (Although, Alberto attacked all the way today, while Bradley waited for a bit so the number's overinflated)
1:46 is his overall deficit. Today he was 1:06 behind.0 -
On todays evidence there don't appear many riders that can take time out of Wiggins on the climbs. Contador I think is nailed on for the win. Schleck is still a way behind Wiggins and you have to think he'll lose time to him in the TT. On todays evidence Wiggins looks likely to overtake Armstrong. Bar a blow up on Ventoux it's looking very good for him.0
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He just needs to limit his time losses in the mountains, then try and make up as much as he can in the ITT. I reckon he's got a pretty strong chance of staying on the podium.0
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However, just looking at cyclingnews.com, and they have a headline "Wiggins takes another step towards Tour win", which I think may be pusing it slightly...0
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They might claim they meant winning a future Tour.
On the other hand it may be parochial British hacks forgetting they have an international readership.0 -
I think that Brad's chances depend a lot on how Saxo Bank decide to ride this final week. The one rider likely to see him as a potential target is Andy Schleck. If he is content to ride for 3rd and hope to take a few seconds out of LA on the Ventoux (I am not sure that taking LA out on the tt would be viewed too kindly by Astana) for the 2nd spot then potentially Astana are a very powerful ally capable of controlling the Scleck brothers and helping Brad ride to a well deserved podium (and they would probably be very glad of an ally in Garmin). The remaining finishes are not at altitude so riders capable of closing the gaps on the run in are very handy.
If on the other hand Andy Scleck attacked hard in the Alps and he projected a threat to LA he could find himself with a very difficult few days. He really needs to make Astana work in his interests in the Alps (and that probably means working with them for the next two stages).
Judging by the way that he climbed today he has a very good chance of hanging onto 3rd all the way to Paris if he can limit the damages on the Ventoux (where I do not believe that LA will pose a threat to him) and maybe get 2nd. It may seem negative but he is now a potential target and has to cover his rivals very carefully.
Of course I could have got that wrong. He might be blown to pieces in the Alps. Or AC could fall over his feet on the Ventoux and Brad could win the Tour. I personally think that 3rd or 2nd would be a very fair placing. One thing in his favour, he is an unknown quantity. Richard Virenque didn't even mention his name in his analysis of today's stage and his projections for the next few days.0 -
Le Commentateur wrote:They might claim they meant winning a future Tour.
On the other hand it may be parochial British hacks forgetting they have an international readership.
cyclingnews are Australian run as far as I know.0 -
RichN95 wrote:Currently on Betfair he is:
100/1 to win
15/2 to get on the podium
9/4 to come in the top 6
Essentially, they think he'll come 7th (behind Contador, LA, ASchleck, Evans, Sastre and Kloden)
Check out the trading history for Wiggins to win outright. £333 traded at 1000/1! Bet there are some very nervous people around tonight.0 -
Heh heh,
reading an american forum, there's people still saying that armstrong will win and it was part of the plan to put contador in yellow first to put presure on him. And that wiggins must be doping. (despite the fact that he is one of the most powerful TT riders around and has lost a shed load of weight!).
Crazy...0 -
Hilarious!
Which forum? I'm pissing myself already. <hr>
<h6>What\'s the point of going out? We\'re just going to end up back here anyway</h6>0 -
Notwithstanding his performance at the current Tour, I think we can look forward to him figuring in one week stage races like Paris-Nice in the future, especially if he can still TT very well.Le Blaireau (1)0
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Who, Wiggins or Lance?
I don't think Lance will be back riding after this season.0 -
Wiggins is doing a marvelous performance, his weight loss isn't a great surprise, look at Yekimov, when he stated as a pro, he was positively chubby!Malc Elliott's another example, his face looks like a skull with a bit of skin stretched over it.
Just means Wiggins is out on that razor that Armstrong talks about in his autobiographies, he's peaked absolutely at the right time.Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.0 -
Le Commentateur wrote:Who, Wiggins or Lance?
I don't think Lance will be back riding after this season.
WigginsLe Blaireau (1)0 -
DaveyL wrote:Notwithstanding his performance at the current Tour, I think we can look forward to him figuring in one week stage races like Paris-Nice in the future, especially if he can still TT very well.
"I'm not going to stick my neck out and say I can win the Tour in the next four years, but can I win the Vuelta? Maybe. Can I win the Dauphiné Libéré, or Paris-Nice or the Tour of Switzerland? Why not,"
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/lat ... -2012.htmlinterview.cyclingfever.com0 -
After the stage on Sunday, Millar was asked about the fact that Wiggins looking good for second place overall. He agreed, and also said 'why not the win, seriously?' or words to that effect.
Goes without saying that it depends how much time Contador can take in the mountains this coming week, and how much Wiggins can beat Contador by in the TT, and if it matters to win the tour, I can see Contador pulling an astounding TT performance out of the bag, followed by an absurd climb of the Ventoux.
But its not a ridiculous idea, and more confident mountain riding from Wiggins, and/or problems for Contador such as a crash, or an inopportune puncture at the bottom of the Ventoux could put Bradley in yellow.
You never know...0 -
:shock:Dan0
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Go GEEZER!!!!!0
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Twiggo for Prime Minister!!!
(And a Top 5 finish)Let's close our eyes and see what happens0 -
I definitely think he can make top three...2nd if he doesn't lose too much time to Andy in the mountains.
Although I like him for his performances and various other things, I cannot warm to him. For example, see his interview after yesterday's stage: http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/ ... l=14597555
It is like that every time and I know it has always been like that with him, I just wish he could be more open and more amenable.Contador is the Greatest0 -
Glad he isn't wearing those AWFUL sunglasses:
Graham Watson
Contador is the Greatest0 -
frenchfighter wrote:It is like that every time and I know it has always been like that with him, I just wish he could be more open and more amenable.
The way Bertie was at the Tour in 2007 when those nasty hacks were asking difficult questions about Operacion Puerto and DNA?Le Blaireau (1)0 -
I wonder if there is too Wiggomania optimism.
Verbier was a relatively-short climb compared to some, and seemed to take Wiggins to the limit. The next few Alpine days have longer climbs and/or greater amounts of climbing (also longer/greater than this year’s Pyrennees too, where BW did okay but the pressure wasn’t then on).
Also wasn’t he briefly dropped on the last or last but one descent in the Vosges? The descent run-in on tomorrow’s stage is longer albeit wider than those in the Vosges.
I think his best chances lie with what I fear the most – Astana so heavily controlling the race that nobody with GC ambitions is allowed (or able) to escape, and the upper GC doesn’t change much (maybe just AC opens his lead to get a TT buffer), all in order that LA gets a podium place.0 -
knedlicky wrote:Also wasn’t he briefly dropped on the last or last but one descent in the Vosges? The descent run-in on tomorrow’s stage is longer albeit wider than those in the Vosges.
No, I'm pretty sure that this was a commentary error.0 -
avoidingmyphd wrote:knedlicky wrote:Also wasn’t he briefly dropped on the last or last but one descent in the Vosges? The descent run-in on tomorrow’s stage is longer albeit wider than those in the Vosges.
No, I'm pretty sure that this was a commentary error.
Yes - I was pretty sure he was there all the time, but Harmon couldn't see him (to be fair, everyone was wearing rain capes, so it wasn't that easy to identify the riders). It was one of the few occasions where those "AWFUL sunglasses" (FF
) came in useful as they and the orange flash on the front-top of Garmin's helmets helped pick him out. 0 -
I've just realised - he may lose a bit of time to Andy Schleck on Ventoux but he'd kick his ar5e in the TT. :shock: If it's a good enough gap on the TT (enough to get a big chunk out of Andy), Wiggo could just try and stay on Andy's wheel on Ventoux (possible?), using Menchov/Di Luca Giro tactics in order to try and secure a 2nd place.0
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frenchfighter wrote:It is like that every time and I know it has always been like that with him, I just wish he could be more open and more amenable. Cos he's cool as fcuk. 0
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Depends on how the tactics play out on Saturday, but if the attacks start a few kms after St Esteve (where the gradient really steepens) Wiggins could lose 3 or 4 minutes to the pure climbers on Ventoux. So he would need a sizeable cushion on GC by then to keep a podium place.0
