does Bradley Wiggins stand a chance?
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I'd like to see him on the podium with Lance & A.N Other but top ten will be good for Bradley.I've added a signature to prove it is still possible.0
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I'd love to see him out climb Armstrong.0
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yes0
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I almost don't want him to make the podium, he'll launch a thousand eating disorders as fourth category riders will try to diet their way to elite status
Sunday chould suit him as it's not a really tough finish, the climb is hard but nothing extreme and is relatively short. We'll see how his recovery powers are, it is one thing to impress in the first week but the final week can see many ambitions ruined. If he's still strong he should obviously do well in the Annecy TT if he's but Ventoux is for the pure climbers.
Realistically I think the podium is beyond his reach and that the top-10 would still be an exceptional result.0 -
One bad day could ruin it,but I hope he gets on the podium in front of "that man"0
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campagchris wrote:One bad day could ruin it,but I hope he gets on the podium in front of "that man"
...and one GOOD day in the Alps could give him the Yellow Jersey! 8)Cycling weakly0 -
I think he can hang with the top boys on Sunday as long as he doesn't chase attacks. He can't hang on to Contador, A.Schleck, Sastre or even Evans in full flow.
He'll beat all except maybe Contador and Evans in the TT.
Then it's Ventoux. He'll know what he has to do and who he has to follow and he should focus on coming third. It's possible.
If he does that then all sorts of insinuations will be made against him and British Cycling (I have total faith in him)Twitter: @RichN950 -
Bradley has done well, but until we see him on a proper mountain stage (the one next week with about 5 climbs) we can't say whether he is up to a top 10 placing or not. I hope he is, but even if he isn't I think he will have gained a lot of confidence from this season. He should be able to go on to get some very decent results in the coming seasons. Races like Paris-Nice and the Dauphine come to mind.0
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I wouldn't get too excited yet.
In a normal Tour, Evans and Sastre, at 3 or so minutes down, would still be around the mid 10.
There are still an awful lot of people in contention with some really very big climbs up ahead.Note: the above post is an opinion and not fact. It might be a lie.0 -
teagar wrote:I wouldn't get too excited yet.
In a normal Tour, Evans, at 3 or so minutes down would still be around the mid-top 10.
There are still an awful lot of people in contention with some really very big climbs up ahead.
Very true. But Wiggo looked pretty good at Arcalis when there was just a group of 11. Even attacking a little.
Let us dream a few more days.Twitter: @RichN950 -
There were claims he was dropped on the category 1 climb today (Liggett said as much, ITV's feed did as well) though whether that holds up to scrutiny with so many problems identifying riders remains to be seen.0
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stagehopper wrote:There were claims he was dropped on the category 1 climb today (Liggett said as much, ITV's feed did as well) though whether that holds up to scrutiny with so many problems identifying riders remains to be seen.
Some on the Stage 13 thread said the same at the time, but it turned out to be David Millar. Who can tell who is who in those sort of days?Twitter: @RichN950 -
I wasn't convnced myself - Eurosport never mentioned it and Kelly monitors race radio very closely. And from the TV pictures I thought I saw Maskaant dropped. It was pretty chaotic with the capes and the rain.0
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Even Vaughters has admitted he doesn't know what Brad's chances are. Wiggins has never performed like this in a stage race so there are no historical reference points. But given the way he's riding now, he should be right there with the big names come Mont Ventoux.
He'll finish the Tour in the top 5.0 -
teagar wrote:
There are still an awful lot of people in contention with some really very big climbs up ahead.
+1
the race profile is flattering to some riders on GC with the difficulties packed into the third week.
but in all honesty I really don't know.. he looks strong"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
RichN95 wrote:stagehopper wrote:There were claims he was dropped on the category 1 climb today (Liggett said as much, ITV's feed did as well) though whether that holds up to scrutiny with so many problems identifying riders remains to be seen.
Some on the Stage 13 thread said the same at the time, but it turned out to be David Millar. Who can tell who is who in those sort of days?
Black socks.0 -
stagehopper wrote:I wasn't convnced myself - Eurosport never mentioned it and Kelly monitors race radio very closely. And from the TV pictures I thought I saw Maskaant dropped. It was pretty chaotic with the capes and the rain.
I definately saw Millar out the back and Kelly mentioned about Menchov, that had come from race radio.0 -
As I see it he's benefitting nicely from the current situation. While Astana control the race for LA &/or AC all he has to do is hang on. If the next week turns into a real race and someoneactually attacks then it will get a whole lot harder for him. While the racing this week has been boring it's playing right into his hands.
In the longer term I can't see him being a major tour contendor but maybe for 1 week races.....0 -
ShinyHelmut wrote:
In the longer term I can't see him being a major tour contendor but maybe for 1 week races.....
why not? he is doing a great job at the moment, so is it not unfair to question him as a grand tour contender, untill the tour has finished?0 -
jimycooper wrote:why not? he is doing a great job at the moment, so is it not unfair to question him as a grand tour contender, untill the tour has finished?
Undoubtedly he's doing a great job at the moment but with the majorityof the racing still to come he's still a LONG way from Paris.
I will certainly be cheering him every pedal stroke of the way and I sincerely hope he can stick with the big guns and will go on to be a contendor in the future.0 -
No - he only has to crack once in the final week and lose 1:30 - 2:00 - the chances are he'll "crack" on 2 or more occasions relative to Bert, Andy, Carlos, Lance. Yes there's a TT but it won't make up for the Alps. Brad's doing brilliantly though. If he could get 8th, 9th 10th then that would be incredible for him.0
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A lower half top 10 placing would be an amazing result for Wiggins.
Just for comparison, everyone remembers that Yates had the yellow jersey in 1994 for a day, but he actually finished that tour in 71st spot and his career best in any TdF was 45th. Still, that's the domestique's lot.0 -
As we'd expect, the odds have changed a lot now. He's one of the podium favourites now. I'm probably going to need 24 hours to get to grips with the idea that Wiggins could finish second in the Tour de France.RichN95 wrote:Currently on Betfair he is:
100/1 to win
15/2 to get on the podium
9/4 to come in the top 60 -
Kléber wrote:I almost don't want him to make the podium, he'll launch a thousand eating disorders as fourth category riders will try to diet their way to elite status
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Male eating disorders are a greatly under reported problem. It's not his fault-Bradley has lost his weight under medical supervision and has stated that he'll have to regain weight as soon as the tour is over. I do my best to remove glossy 'celeb' magazines from the waiting room at work as it's been proven that looking at Hello magazine et al causes women, young and not so young, to have a lower mood and greater feelings of poor self worth. They also grow to believe that being size zero is both desirable and attainable.
Which is why I read CW, Cycling Sport and Procycling and have a healthy middle aged spread. I am perceived as 'weird' and 'sad' by my colleagues.
I digress. forgive me- eating disorders are a petty hobby horse of mine. All are dangerous, but the male ones are especially pitiful.
Rant over. I've spent a pleasant afternoon shouting Brad on- I would be ecstatic if he makes it to the podium.
And this afternoon I actually believe it's possible.0 -
apparently yes.... :shock:"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0
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Any chance of Wiggo signing for the new Sky Team?0
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Adieu wrote:Any chance of Wiggo signing for the new Sky Team?
no"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
Not a hope-he's part of the Garmin family.
And having been in a few trade teams now, he clearly wants to stick with the one that works for him.0 -
To answer the original question...
This is how things stand now:
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 63:17:56
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:01:37
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:01:46
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:02:17
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:26
6 Rinaldo Nocentini (Ita) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:30
7 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:02:51
8 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia - HTC 0:03:07
9 Christophe Le Mevel (Fra) Française des Jeux 0:03:09
10 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:03:25
This is the result of the prologue:
1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 00:19:32 (47.80km/h)
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana +0:00:18
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream +0:00:19
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana +0:00:22
5 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto +0:00:23
6 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana +0:00:30
7 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas +0:00:32
8 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia - High Road +0:00:33
9 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas +0:00:37
10 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana +0:00:40
11 Gustav Erik Larsson (Swe) Team Saxo Bank +0:00:41
12 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi +0:00:44
13 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Slipstream +0:00:47
14 David Millar (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream +0:00:48
15 Jérôme Coppel (Fra) Française des Jeux +0:00:51
16 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step +0:00:56
17 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin - Slipstream +0:00:57
18 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank +0:01:00
Let's break this down:
So - Brad was 1 second behind Alberto on stage 1, but it was a stage more suited to Alberto's climbing talents.
Contador broke away with 5km to go and did it in just under 15 minutes.
Bradley finished 1:46 behind Alberto today so you could say that he's 11.7% slower than Alberto on the hills. (Although, Alberto attacked all the way today, while Bradley waited for a bit so the number's overinflated)
Lets say half of that first TT was uphill, Alberto would have had an advantage over Bradley of 5.85%. Therefore, if the first half of that TT was flat and the second part identical, and assuming Bradley & Alberto have the same power on the flat (not sure about that), the gap between them would have decreased by 53.35 seconds (almost halved). Alberto would have still beaten him.
However, that's just working on rough estimates and assumptions. If you have power outputs of all the riders, you could probably create a very accurate model of what could happen. Tiredness will come into play in this last week and perhaps Bradley will find extra motivation from his GC standings too.0
