*Spoliers* Tour de France talk *Spoilers*

Sewinman

It was someone called Robbiemcewan who tweetd it, and that BB guy Phil linked to it.

Christophe3967

So another quiet day for Astana then.

Looking at the pictures afterwards it was noticeable that LA hugged half his team and AC wasn't one of them. Funny that.

As for them sitting up - no chance. They were going for it. Bruyneel earns his money that's for sure.

greg66_tri_v2.0

Stone Glider wrote:

All that talk about a Mr LA of Texas, has anyone else noticed that a certain FC of Switzerland was also in the break?

According to something I read yesterday, FC very nearly missed the break. He had to put in a gargantuan effort to tag onto the back of it when it went.

And, so the story goes, the rider who was leading the group that got left behind at the break was none other than AC.

Stone Glider

Oops, I took so long to type the last one i was overtaken :oops:

Can I claim that I actualy "sat up" a bit too soon?

edhornby

I reckon any DS (Directeur Sportif, the team boss in the car doin the tactics) worth their salt wouldn't worry about letting the yellow jersey go if he thought he could get it back again

mind you once fabian loses the Maillot Jaune that would be it so they may defend

I just hope to god that they don't all play cagey on friday... otherwise it will leave a week of boring riding, then the next TT to move the places again, then everyone waiting to attack on ventoux, that would be a shame. Let's hope Bertie Contador gives it some stick

il_principe

Il Principe wrote:

DonDaddyD wrote:

I think Astana are going to have a major breakdown of tactics today

With Johan Bruyneel in control? I doubt it.

Can I just draw your attention to my earlier post?

Boo Ya!

Christophe3967

Greg66 wrote:

Stone Glider wrote:

All that talk about a Mr LA of Texas, has anyone else noticed that a certain FC of Switzerland was also in the break?

According to something I read yesterday, FC very nearly missed the break. He had to put in a gargantuan effort to tag onto the back of it when it went.

And, so the story goes, the rider who was leading the group that got left behind at the break was none other than AC.

Exactly - but at least Fab was half awake and had the legs to get aboard. Bertie said he was riding up to the front with a team mate when it all happened. I doubt he got much sympathy from Bruyneel though

iain_j

cjcp wrote:

iain_j wrote:

To be honest I've been losing interest in the Tour the last few years, you get behind a rider then find out they doped, you sit glued to the screen watching an epic stage and find the stars of day were doped. This year though - we're only on day 4 and I'm hooked! I couldn't really give a toss about The Lance & Bertie Show. Even if Lance gets yellow today I don't believe he can win the tour. It's bound to be an exciting three weeks, the mountains always are, especially Ventoux right at the end, but as far as following the racing I think I'll be focussing on Cav and the green jersey competition.

It should be extremely interesting when they hit the mountains. In 07, we were treated to repeated attacks by Contador, with Evans and The Chicken trying to reel him in. Last year, not so much, despite A Schleck's best efforts. This year could see a return to the 2007 action.

I hope so. Last year was dramatic, but in a "tense drama" sort of way. The Alpe d'Huez stage was epic but nothing *really* happened until the Alpe itself. We want attacks!

Great stage today. Since when has there been so much GC action in the first week! But where's Garmin? Credit to them for getting 2nd place with just 5 riders left but what happened to them dominating the TT's.

cjcp

iain_j wrote:

cjcp wrote:

iain_j wrote:

To be honest I've been losing interest in the Tour the last few years, you get behind a rider then find out they doped, you sit glued to the screen watching an epic stage and find the stars of day were doped. This year though - we're only on day 4 and I'm hooked! I couldn't really give a toss about The Lance & Bertie Show. Even if Lance gets yellow today I don't believe he can win the tour. It's bound to be an exciting three weeks, the mountains always are, especially Ventoux right at the end, but as far as following the racing I think I'll be focussing on Cav and the green jersey competition.

It should be extremely interesting when they hit the mountains. In 07, we were treated to repeated attacks by Contador, with Evans and The Chicken trying to reel him in. Last year, not so much, despite A Schleck's best efforts. This year could see a return to the 2007 action.

I hope so. Last year was dramatic, but in a "tense drama" sort of way. The Alpe d'Huez stage was epic but nothing *really* happened until the Alpe itself. We want attacks!

Great stage today. Since when has there been so much GC action in the first week! But where's Garmin? Credit to them for getting 2nd place with just 5 riders left but what happened to them dominating the TT's.

What an eventful day's racing. But it's all over. Contador's won. Look at the GC:

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/t ... ellow.html

Look at the gap between Contador and his nearest contender from another team (Andy Schleck). 1min 20 secs. Cancellara won't hang on in the mountains, so Astana have just forced everyone else to attack/Contador them in the mountains.

This should make for good viewing, but, short of a massive balls up in the last ITT or a very bad day in the mountains, they ain't going to put that amount of time into Contador (or LA), so Contador's won, and we're realistically looking at an Astana 1-2-3.

If Contador keeps LA in check time-wise, he may not even need to overtly attack him on the slopes; he can just put enough time into him in the last ITT. Politically much less controversial.

iain_j

Wouldn't like to say anything so soon - 1:20's nothing to lose on a bad day in the mountains. Armstrong lost 1:37 to Ullrich on the Joux Plane in 2000, and of course Landis lost 8 minutes in one day (but let's not mention what happened the next day :? )

Stuey01

4 days in and without even seeing a hill yet is bit premature to be calling it all over...

cjcp

I know, but this is what the TTT does to the race if you've got a super-strong team. :?

Can you see Evans making up that time? Or Sastre? Menchov's a down-the-pan-dalek at around 3:30 behind Contador.

Last year, Valverde never recovered from surrendering that amount time so early on in the race.

greg66_tri_v2.0

cjcp wrote:

I know, but this is what the TTT does to the race if you've got a super-strong team. :?

Can you see Evans making up that time? Or Sastre? Menchov's a down-the-pan-dalek at around 3:30 behind Contador.

Last year, Valverde never recovered from surrendering that amount time so early on in the race.

I agree it's an Astana lock out of the GC podium places, but Bruyneel's big task is to manage his own team. LA said in the post-race he's come to win, and so has AC. One of them will get to the yellow jersey first. What then? How does Bruyneel handle the other, who is still going to want to attack? I'm not so sure that the team would be wholly behind one or the other rider.

I can't recall now in 07 whether any team drove the train hard to the climbs, in the USPS/Disco/CSC style. I'm quite interested to see whether Astana does that this year, and if so how explosive AC will be after the train ride. I'm sure LA doesn't now have the explosive acceleration in the mountains that AC has, but he has guile and experience; enough to have won a tour on the back of that and weak team way back when.

My prediction: this Friday, the Astana train hurtles to the base of the final climb. The lead group gets whittled down by a fearsome pace up the climb, set by Astana, reducing it to the heads of state of the tour (as Phil & Paul like to call them). No one will have the juice to put in the decisive attack, but Contador will try. LA will match AC every time he attacks. Stage win to AC, with LA right on his wheel.

It's the way for LA to start to undermine AC's confidence in his ability.

greg66_tri_v2.0

Christophe3967 wrote:

As for them sitting up - no chance. They were going for it. Bruyneel earns his money that's for sure.

Agreed. Just watched the highlights and there was no way LA - fifth man over - sat up or eased off. They were trying for it.

el_presidente

cjcp wrote:

What an eventful day's racing. But it's all over. Contador's won. Look at the GC:

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/t ... ellow.html

Look at the gap between Contador and his nearest contender from another team (Andy Schleck). 1min 20 secs. Cancellara won't hang on in the mountains, so Astana have just forced everyone else to attack/Contador them in the mountains.

This should make for good viewing, but, short of a massive balls up in the last ITT or a very bad day in the mountains, they ain't going to put that amount of time into Contador (or LA), so Contador's won, and we're realistically looking at an Astana 1-2-3.

If Contador keeps LA in check time-wise, he may not even need to overtly attack him on the slopes; he can just put enough time into him in the last ITT. Politically much less controversial.

This is obviously rubbish given that yesterday there was a 40" gap in the last 30kms of a flat stage. Astana will defend sure but in the mountains only Armstrong and Leipheimer will be leiutenants to Contador and no reason why anyone couldn't take minutes out of him if they have a good day and he has a bad day.

cjcp

Greg66 wrote:

I agree it's an Astana lock out of the GC podium places, but Bruyneel's big task is to manage his own team. LA said in the post-race he's come to win, and so has AC. One of them will get to the yellow jersey first. What then? How does Bruyneel handle the other, who is still going to want to attack? I'm not so sure that the team would be wholly behind one or the other rider.

That's why it's politically better (but more of a gamble) to wait until the final TT to put time into LA rather than attacking him, especially if LA is in yellow. Fatigue may also set in. LA is 38. Although he gained on the leaders during the final week of the Giro, LA never completed two Grand Tours at the height of his career.

I can't recall now in 07 whether any team drove the train hard to the climbs, in the USPS/Disco/CSC style. I'm quite interested to see whether Astana does that this year, and if so how explosive AC will be after the train ride. I'm sure LA doesn't now have the explosive acceleration in the mountains that AC has, but he has guile and experience; enough to have won a tour on the back of that and weak team way back when.

I *think* Saunier Duval (for Mayo) and Rabobank (for Menchov) led the peleton - I think Boogerd rode himself into the ground, but I'm not sure if Rabobank was last year.

LA defintely doesn't have that zip; he hasn't since 2003 really. In 2004, he had Landis and Azevedo to lead him. If Contador attacks and keeps it going, LA won't be able to respond. End of. (I know I'm risking a massive amount of humble pie here :P ).

But, Contador won't necessarily need to make the first move. Saxo Bank and Evans need to do that (Menchov's out of it, so forget him), so Contador can just follow.

If Contador goes, I don't think LA will get his wheel. Rasmussen struggled like hell to get to it and he was from the same gene pool as JG.

You're probably right about Astana's tactics for Friday. It's the tried and trusted JB/LA method. But, if they're going to split in September, Contador ain't gonna pay any attention to JB.

cjcp

el_presidente wrote:

cjcp wrote:

What an eventful day's racing. But it's all over. Contador's won. Look at the GC:

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/t ... ellow.html

Look at the gap between Contador and his nearest contender from another team (Andy Schleck). 1min 20 secs. Cancellara won't hang on in the mountains, so Astana have just forced everyone else to attack/Contador them in the mountains.

This should make for good viewing, but, short of a massive balls up in the last ITT or a very bad day in the mountains, they ain't going to put that amount of time into Contador (or LA), so Contador's won, and we're realistically looking at an Astana 1-2-3.

If Contador keeps LA in check time-wise, he may not even need to overtly attack him on the slopes; he can just put enough time into him in the last ITT. Politically much less controversial.

This is obviously rubbish given that yesterday there was a 40" gap in the last 30kms of a flat stage. Astana will defend sure but in the mountains only Armstrong and Leipheimer will be leiutenants to Contador and no reason why anyone couldn't take minutes out of him if they have a good day and he has a bad day.

Heh heh. I did put the caveat of a very bad day in the mountains, and Contador is appaently prone to a bad day, but I can't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong. In fact, I'm very probably wrong :P , but given the significance of the TTT during the LA years, it's difficult not to feel that history is repeating itself a little.

greg66_tri_v2.0

LA's post TTT press conference here

el_presidente wrote:

This is obviously rubbish given that yesterday there was a 40" gap in the last 30kms of a flat stage. Astana will defend sure but in the mountains only Armstrong and Leipheimer will be leiutenants to Contador and no reason why anyone couldn't take minutes out of him if they have a good day and he has a bad day.

Umm, well, yesterday was exceptional for a flat stage. I can only think of one previous flat stage like it (which ended Vino's hope last(?) year).

AC has to have a bad day in the mountains before anyone has a chance. With a strong team around him controlling the field, there's no reason for AC to have a bad day. More interesting is whether Astana will be that strong team.

I wouldn't bank on LA being anyone's super-domestique in the mountains. He's there to win. That means working against AC when he has to. Plus Astana has four riders who could podium in Paris - the three you mention plus Kloeden. LA and AC both want the top spot. AK and LL both want to avoid 4th spot. It's not going to be an easy job managing that team; that said, I can't see Bruyneel letting disarray spread so badly that (say) Sastre or Schleck would be allowed to vanish 3 minutes up the road on a final climb.

Although here's a thought: given the Astana lock out, there's no chance now for the likes of Schleck, Evans or Sastre to ride defensively to hang onto a certain podium. If they want anything out of this race, they'll have to attack boldly. Don't think they'll pull it off, but might make for interesting viewing.

cjcp

Of course, a crash - as happened to Vino - is another possibility. I think Mayo crashed too, on the pave a few years ago when USPS were hammering the pace, and that effectively scuppered his chances.

cjcp

Greg66 wrote:

Although here's a thought: given the Astana lock out, there's no chance now for the likes of Schleck, Evans or Sastre to ride defensively to hang onto a certain podium. If they want anything out of this race, they'll have to attack boldly. Don't think they'll pull it off, but might make for interesting viewing.

Yep - see above. It would make top viewing, but your theory is flawed with regard to Evans. To attack means that he wouldn't be able to follow a wheel. :P

Sastre has form this season - he won a mountain stage in the Giro, but he will be a marked man given that he's the reigining champ. But he can't TT as well, so it's a death or glory charge in the mountains for him.

The one the people want to see is A Schleck and Contador going toe to toe. That would be cracking.

el_presidente

cjcp wrote:

Heh heh. I did put the caveat of a very bad day in the mountains, and Contador is appaently prone to a bad day, but I can't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong. In fact, I'm very probably wrong :P , but given the significance of the TTT during the LA years, it's difficult not to feel that history is repeating itself a little.

which is why Preudhomme has amde sure there's only one more, fairly short and well before the potentially decisive Ventoux stage. Sastre won 2 mountain stages in the Giro this year and won them both in fine style, only the Cinque Terre mammoth TT did for him re the GC.

el_presidente

Greg66 wrote:

Umm, well, yesterday was exceptional for a flat stage. I can only think of one previous flat stage like it (which ended Vino's hope last(?) year).

Agreed it was exceptional, just shows it is dangerous to make predictions

cjcp

el_presidente wrote:

cjcp wrote:

Heh heh. I did put the caveat of a very bad day in the mountains, and Contador is appaently prone to a bad day, but I can't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong. In fact, I'm very probably wrong :P , but given the significance of the TTT during the LA years, it's difficult not to feel that history is repeating itself a little.

which is why Preudhomme has amde sure there's only one more, fairly short and well before the potentially decisive Ventoux stage. Sastre won 2 mountain stages in the Giro this year and won them both in fine style, only the Cinque Terre mammoth TT did for him re the GC.

Two was it? Fair enough. I'd heard he'd one in fine style and that he does get better as the Tour goes on, but the level of competition is a bit higher here. And Sastre still needs to put a large amount of time into Contador and Cervelo TT aren't as strong as CSC were last year. Dan Lloyd was saying on Eurosport that Sastre's very cool on the slopes, and bides his time well, but I can't see him making that time up.

So, is your money on Sastre?

Eau Rouge

The pace in the hills in the Giro was gentle enough that Wiggins could almost look like a climber, yet Lance was struggling on those few short occasions they really turned it on.
He might be in better shape now, but he's got to prove that yet. Until he proves it, we have no idea how this race will unfold. Yellow or no yellow, I expect Bertie to attack him though.

Evens, and especially Sastre, have nothing to lose now. They can't just sit in and maybe attack inside the last km to grab a few seconds. They need a real attack to make up real time now. If they can do it, it could blow everything of this week away. If they can do it.

I wonder about Levi. You have to think he'll be riding for Lance for as long as Lance looks like a contender, but Levi isn't exactly out of it himself. If he, while riding for Lance, gets on the wheel of an attacking Sastre or Contador he could find himself ahead of Lance in the GC before he realises it. What happens then?

Or, Lance could be Lance, following every attack with ease, jumping away in the last km, extending his lead and cruising to Paris.

As much as it might look over before it began, I think there are still a lot of drama left in this race.

knedlicky

oscarbudgie wrote:

Sewinman wrote:

People are tweeting that they think LA sat up with 50 to go to let the other guy keep the Yellow Jersey....why would he do that?

I didn't see that at all - neither did any of the Eurosport commentators or pundits - I actually got the impression LA thought he'd got it...

Greg66 wrote:

Christophe3967 wrote:

As for them sitting up - no chance. They were going for it. Bruyneel earns his money that's for sure.

Agreed. Just watched the highlights and there was no way LA - fifth man over - sat up or eased off. They were trying for it.

LA was very determined right to the end and worked very hard underway, but I think he was on his last legs by the end and, in sight of the finish, he did ease up, as much out of relief as much as thinking he’d done it.

The two who looked the most at ease were Klöden, who led them in, and Contador who looked like he hadn’t been pushed much by the pace of the others. And I think it's Klöden who is Astana's other option, not LA.

Bugly

cjcp wrote:

If Contador keeps LA in check time-wise, he may not even need to overtly attack him on the slopes; he can just put enough time into him in the last ITT. Politically much less controversial.

Tongue in cheek I hope - watching the TTT Lance was the strongest rider in the strongest team, Berties turns didnt appear to be as long or as hard. In the sstage 1 tt he had the advantage of starting after pharmstrong. If the order remains as is between them then Lance will destroy Bertie in the final TT. :twisted:

Christophe3967

knedlicky wrote:

oscarbudgie wrote:

Sewinman wrote:

People are tweeting that they think LA sat up with 50 to go to let the other guy keep the Yellow Jersey....why would he do that?

I didn't see that at all - neither did any of the Eurosport commentators or pundits - I actually got the impression LA thought he'd got it...

Greg66 wrote:

Christophe3967 wrote:

As for them sitting up - no chance. They were going for it. Bruyneel earns his money that's for sure.

Agreed. Just watched the highlights and there was no way LA - fifth man over - sat up or eased off. They were trying for it.

LA was very determined right to the end and worked very hard underway, but I think he was on his last legs by the end and, in sight of the finish, he did ease up, as much out of relief as much as thinking he’d done it.

The two who looked the most at ease were Klöden, who led them in, and Contador who looked like he hadn’t been pushed much by the pace of the others. And I think it's Klöden who is Astana's other option, not LA.

LA did the lions share of work yesterday - AC's turns at the front were much shorter. You have to question LA's ability to last the pace over three weeks, and his interview afterwards was pretty frank - I think he knows that he'll struggle at 37 and he's going to do what he can whilst he's still got the legs. But I don't think anyone can call it at this stage. Friday will be the acid test - bring it on 8)

Capo

knedlicky wrote:

LA was very determined right to the end and worked very hard underway, but I think he was on his last legs by the end and, in sight of the finish, he did ease up, as much out of relief as much as thinking he’d done it.

The two who looked the most at ease were Klöden, who led them in, and Contador who looked like he hadn’t been pushed much by the pace of the others. And I think it's Klöden who is Astana's other option, not LA.

The photographer Graham Watson, who is working with Astana on the Tour, reckons Contador wasn't having a good day yesterday:

http://www.astana-cyclingteam.com/behin ... useto.html

cjcp

Bugly wrote:

cjcp wrote:

If Contador keeps LA in check time-wise, he may not even need to overtly attack him on the slopes; he can just put enough time into him in the last ITT. Politically much less controversial.

Tongue in cheek I hope - watching the TTT Lance was the strongest rider in the strongest team, Berties turns didnt appear to be as long or as hard. In the sstage 1 tt he had the advantage of starting after pharmstrong. If the order remains as is between them then Lance will destroy Bertie in the final TT. :twisted:

Tongue in cheek, I hope. :P

cjcp

Capo wrote:

knedlicky wrote:

LA was very determined right to the end and worked very hard underway, but I think he was on his last legs by the end and, in sight of the finish, he did ease up, as much out of relief as much as thinking he’d done it.

The two who looked the most at ease were Klöden, who led them in, and Contador who looked like he hadn’t been pushed much by the pace of the others. And I think it's Klöden who is Astana's other option, not LA.

The photographer Graham Watson, who is working with Astana on the Tour, reckons Contador wasn't having a good day yesterday:

http://www.astana-cyclingteam.com/behin ... useto.html

Watson's worked with LA before - he's produced a coffee table-style picture book about him. I suspect he'll want to stick in with him if LA splits and forms his own team, so I've taken his comments with a pinch of salt.