2024 Election thread
Comments
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government data suggest migrants are net positive for the uk exchequer, non-trivial billions a year
the uk's problem is an unproductive underclass, brexit voters etc., they're a net negative, the country would be far better off without them
the government isn't proposing to send them to rwanda, even though it'd make far more sense to dump the slackers out of the airlock
almost as is immigration isn't the problem
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
Just because you keep repeating it doesn't make it any more true. Despite pushing this as *a big problem* for the last 3 years at the same time as handing out visas like flyers, population growth has been pretty steady since 2000 and is actually dipping slightly now. But sure, reducing the working population further will definitely help make more housing available.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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Grim reading for @Stevo_666, unless Reform UK capitulates in return for Conservatives lurching even further to the right.
The result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5 per cent swing to Labour. It would all but guarantee Sir Keir’s party at least a decade in government, as no party with such a sizeable majority has ever lost the subsequent election. There is also bad news for the Scottish National Party, which is predicted to lose almost half of its seats to Labour, retaining only 25. The poll – obtained using the same method that has accurately predicted the results of several recent elections – will add to pressure on Rishi Sunak to pivot to a far more conservative agenda as he faces a crucial vote on his Rwanda policy this week. It will also be studied closely by Tory MPs who believe a change of leader before this year’s election is the only way to avoid disaster.
Two hilarious bits in the article... that Tories thinking that a new leader (would that be the 5th?) would make any difference, and later on Wrecker Frost being utterly devoid of reflection on his part in the Tories' downfall whilst suggesting 'great ideas' for regaining support.
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Gotta call that report out as they've used the worst possible example.
"...as no party with such a sizeable majority has ever lost the subsequent election."
What was the SNP majority (in Scotland) last election? Even more, what was the Tory majority last election?
Any party can royally f-up any majority. In fact I'd say the larger the majority the longer the rope to hang themselves.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
That was the old data when immigrants came here to work fully educated and single and then did the decent thing and left before they became a drainon the public purse.
The jump to 700,000 includes a lot of dependents which also makes them more likely to stay
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To stay, they still need to renew or apply for a different visa. New arrivals are not entitled free healthcare, social housing, etc, so are not a 'drain' on society
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
They make an NHS contribution and are then entitled to NHS healthcare. Students also don't pay much tax whilst receiving other state provided benefits. For example, rubbish bins are collected, but council tax isn't paid.
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You would need to earn a lot to cover the cost of two kids being state educated
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You would also need to be a student for 20 years. Let's be vaguely realistic here.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I'm not proposing to solve them, I was debating the issue above about housing.
But to your point, immigration seems to have spiked recently - and I think there are a number of factors (which hopefully will not continue) but which aren't simply led my demand for labour/people - such as immigration from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and increased illegal immigration.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
No, I was making one specific point rather than proposing a total solution as I can't claim to know all of the answers. So given you seem to be happy to snipe at what I'm saying, let's hear your great ideas....it shouldn't take three of us asking you like last time before you make something up 😉
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Your posts aren't really making much sense so I suggest you read back through the conversation.
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Stevo, let's have a thought exercise. Setting aside the carnage in the interim, if we suppose that the boomer bubble will pass in the next 5-15 years, the population should stabilize and start to fall. At that stage, would you allow immigration to plug the gap?
I'm trying to find out whether you just don't like immigration, or just don't want it right now. If it is the latter, the question is how would you turn it back on again?
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There's minimal illegal immigration. The big spike was in asylum claims granted. Those whose applications are unsuccessful are detained and later deported. They are not part of the housing market. Those whose applications are granted are clearly not illegal.
Asylum claims in the last couple of years really has f***all to do with a housing shortage brought about by not building enough for the last 30-40years.
This answer is Build. More. Housing.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
So are you saying Government policy has failed on both legal and illegal immigration? Sounds like someone else should have a go if that's the case.
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Not my problem if you can't understand. So if you have nothing else to contribute...
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If there are one-off factors such as the ones I listed re Ukraine and Hong Kong then that's not what I saying. Clearly they could do better but I don't know any alternative that is likely to improve the situation.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
As you can see from what I posted above, illegal immigration is only one part of the mmigration issue.
And I didn't say that building houses is not a key part of solution - clearly it is, but nor is it the only part and we have to be realistic, which some people on here don't seem to be.
We also need to bear in mind the interests of people who may be impacted by development in their area. Shock, horror.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The conundrum is that everyone wants there to be more affordable housing, therefore cheaper housing, but they don't want their house to drop in value. Hard to get one without the other.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
You were mocking "Rick's" idea to build loads of houses. I pointed out that building lots of houses was government policy. Then you started on about how you hadn't technically said we shouldn't build houses.
Now you've pivoted to an admirable party line of building houses clearly being part of the solution, whilst bearing in mind the interests of the people impacted.
Exactly the kind of meaningless non statement that means we are not building enough houses.
I'll leave it there.
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
People say this a lot but is it really an issue? Prices could drop 50% overnight and despite only having owned it for 4.5 years it would only take me a couple more to get out of negative equity. Plenty more are much closer to paying them off or own them outright.
What's the point of an expensive house for your average punter?
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Many are mortgaged to the hilt. Some like to be able to claim being millionaires, even if they have no spare cash.
Tell a voter that their house is going to lose value, you'll lose a vote.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
They all seem to also want to live in the same places. Can't have everything. That's why Rick lives in Cambridge.
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I struggle to believe that "many" is enough people to be worth pricing out hundreds of thousands of others though
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
It's price-to-wages, right?
We could start by not having house prices grow way faster than wages. That would be a start. They could even grow less than wages, and we'd be good. No-one gets into negative equity, they become more affordable.
Trust me, the backlog of necessary houses is so large you are not going to get a sudden oversupply in the next 10 years, unless the government policy insists on forcing building in places where there is no appetite, rather than where prices are eye wateringly high.
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It's not illegal immigration.
All restricting immigration creates is wage inflation and further increase the proportion of out of work. It doesn't remotely solve the housing shortage.
There's nothing unrealistic about building enough housing. There's plenty of space and it would be a huge boost to the economy. It's also just meeting the targets that have been set every year for the last 3-4 decades.
People's interests are served by having a decent home to live in and by not allowing the country to slowly become a retirement home. Nobody has a right to view over an open field. If you don't want someone to build on that field, buy it. If it's not your land, it's not really any of your business what gets built on it.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
We are way past that point of no return. This is why I don't think there will ever be a happy solution.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
This thread should tell you otherwise.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0
