2024 Election thread

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Comments

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,513

    Immigration isn't the main driver of housing shortage. Decades of progressively tighter planning regime and the inability of local authorities to adequately replace sold housing. I've already posted the downsides of restricting immigration. I can only assume that this is why the government have issued so many visas as restricting immigration would act against efforts to reduce inflation.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,329
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,513
    edited January 8

    Immigration has only shot up in the last couple of years. Housebuilding has been below the required level since the 1980s.

    I think that chart speaks for itself.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    🫡 good luck RJS. Let the power of charts be with you.

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,513

    🙂 it's one of many that show the same thing. We've not built enough for the last thirty-odd years. We *still* haven't got back to pre-2008 levels.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,334


    selling off council housing was a massive, tax payer subsidised, bung to the lucky winners, combined with blocking councils from using the proceeds to invest in new public housing, it was clearly intended to reduce availability of decent and affordable housing

    undesirable properties would stay publicly owned, the desirable enter the private market and generate profit for such worthies as estate agents, mortgage lenders, lawyers and bailiffs

    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,513

    Not sure what the problem with estate agents and lawyers making profits is. Or anyone else for that matter.

    Local authorities do still build some new housing: just nowhere near enough.

    The major issue (aside from funding) is the lack of expertise. There are numerous examples of local councillors acting as property developers with fairly disastrous results.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,601
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,135

    How do you tell the required level from that graph? (Genuine question - I feel the need to say that to avoid sounding like I am automatically disagreeing)

  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,462

    I was talking to the woman responsible for delivering housing on behalf of one large city Council at an event. She was frustrated that a very large development they were trying to get started was being held up by the planning committee of her own Council. It's farcical

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,329

    I'm talking about now though, so clearly immigration is having an impact.

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,513
    edited January 8

    So am I. The effect of a couple of years of extra immigration versus a 30-year decline in housebuilding? I think you need to back up your claim. 🙂

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited January 9

    I see there is an organised effort this morning across the Telegraph, Andrew Neil, Farage and others to try and pin the Horizon problems on Starmer and Ed Davey.

    The latter is more understandable, relatively speaking, as there are letters from him as he spent 2 years as "Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Employment Relations and Postal Affairs" where he basically said the same thing the judges were at the time, but even then, he can't help being lied to by the Post Office.

    Of course, there were plenty of other politicians who were responsible for it before and after, but they're not heading into an election this year...

  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,601

    If the problem is long term absences, why is the solution penalising parents taking children on holidays which are by their nature, short term absences.

    Why do conservative policies not even try to solve the problem they are attempting to solve.

    Also, term time holidays have been "cracked down on" for as long as I remember, why not pick another topic.

  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,462

    Tough talking plays well with their core who then don't seem to have the intellect to check if they follow through with action.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Who's gonna see that and think "yes, now I'll vote for them".

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,513

    We've reached the random policy generator phase of a dying government.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,334
    edited January 9

    the problem is taking public money away from housing and into the pockets of estate agents, lawyers et al.

    it directly reduced the social housing stock available to the less wealthy and directly redistributed the proceeds to the wealthier

    similar to the effect of utility privatisations, if you look at profits extracted vs. under-investment since privatisation, the numbers can be comparable, everyone pays more for degraded services, greatest impact on the least wealthy, greatest benefit for the owners

    uk sold off public assets like dumb kids buying hit after hit of crack, thinking the high would go on forever, but eventually the public assets were gone, and the new owners are whoring the kids out to maximise return

    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Lawyers and estate agents do provide an actual service. They're not just taking the money and running.

  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,550
    edited January 9

    I'm not sure Council houses were sold to anyone other than the sitting tennants and the discount was based on how long they had been tennants. I also suspect there were some clauses as to how soon they could be resold without penalty.

    Not sure that it was a transfer to the wealthy (as Sungod suggests), by the very nature of who council tenants were. It was a transfer of wealth from the state to the less well off though, and will benefit their future generations as those properties are inherited.

    Also no estate agent involvement at the time, just solicitors and mortgage advisers.

    Of course it did substantially reduce the stock of housing for rent (whilst also reducing demand for it in the short to medium term). The lack of and difficulties in adding to the remaining stock of public rented housing is clearly an issue now though.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited January 9

    It wasn't described as a transfer to the weathly, but instead a big state-to-private transfer for those who got lucky.

    Think how much those properties are worth now. Huge transfer of wealth.

  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,550

    This is what Sungod said:

    it directly reduced the social housing stock available to the less wealthy and directly redistributed the proceeds to the wealthier

    Of course it was a huge transfer of wealth, but was that such a bad thing to boost the situation of those tenants? It meant they didn't have to keep paying rent through retirement for example. Also thouse who benefitted will have felt wealthier and probably spent more as a result benefitting the economy.

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,513
    edited January 9

    No. The property owner takes the profit from purchasing the property at a discount. A conveyancing solicitor will take a pretty tiny fee for the sale and an estate agent will only earn a fee - for marketing the property - when the former tenant sells. The principal beneficiary is the former tenant. I know it's still just about panto season, but the "estate agents: BOOOO" misses the point completely.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,293

    My memory of the sale of council houses mirrors DB's version.

    Sitting in an ex-council house may make them paper-rich but it doesn't mean they have disposable income and they need somewhere to live. It is their descendants who will benefit. Or care homes which is another debate.

    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,462

    I don't think that in itself was a bad thing, as a generalisation those living in the houses were among the poorest at the time and so it was quite a socialist policy. The big and obvious problem was that the housing stock wasn't replaced for future low income families in need of access to secure rental housing. If they'd rebuilt on a one for one basis it would have been very good for everyone.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    I don't think it's a particularly fair, efficient, sustainable or effective way to alleviate poverty.

    So yes, I think it probably was a bad thing, all in. Not for the tenants, certainly.

  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,601

    The thing is I suspect at least part of their core (or at least the demographic they should be aiming for as their core) is the type of parent who will argue that a week's foreign holiday is just as valid an education opportunity as a week at school.

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,293
    edited January 9

    Going somewhere of historical or cultural interest? Fair point.

    A week in Marbella, not so much.

    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Ah, good old class snobbery, never change England.