Will Cav Win A Stage ?

DeVlaeminck
DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
in Pro race
or is he finished ?
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
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  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    Ok ignore the fact I seem to have typed the "is he finished" (tongue in cheek) above the question.

    Yes or no - are we going to see him take the record. I've gone no - simply because I think he's not got the leadout so he's going to get limited opportunities to really sprint for the win on equal terms and these days he probably doesn't have that extra kick to win unless everything else goes perfectly.

    Love to be wrong.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    Come on cav
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Lanterne_Rogue
    Lanterne_Rogue Posts: 4,332
    Oh god, everyone can see how you voted, can't they?

    Why isn't there an option to do the funny noise the Sporza commentator does in the MSR footage of Cavendish's last gasp win?
    Twitter: @canocola @thedreadships
  • seanoconn
    seanoconn Posts: 11,665
    Win ‘a’ stage singular no. Win more that one? yes 👍 He’s warming up nicely. 😃
    Pinno, מלך אידיוט וחרא מכונאי
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Going long Astana has not historically yielded results....
    _
  • MidlandsGrimpeur2
    MidlandsGrimpeur2 Posts: 2,112
    As someone who has never written Cavendish off, I hate to admit it but I do struggle to see it this time around. It is more a belief that the other teams just have stronger squads than him so he is going to be on his own I fear.

    I fully expect now I have voted 'No' that he will end up winning 3 stages!
  • MidlandsGrimpeur2
    MidlandsGrimpeur2 Posts: 2,112
    I remember when he was a stagiaire at T Mobile, he finished 2nd on a ToB stage to Birmingham. Van Summeren got the jump on the peloton through a roundabout and Cav won the bunch sprint behind. All the team buses were on a car park and spectators could just freely mill around and see what was going on. Cavendish was effing livid that he had lost, I knew then that he was going to be something pretty special. I had never seen anyone who was just consumed by the need to win.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,649
    I hope so, I really do.

    I think he's got good speed still, lacks a bit with his train, but has both the brains and the will to make it happen
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  • daniel_b
    daniel_b Posts: 11,972
    edited July 2023
    He definitely has the desire/hunger.
    I believe he showed recently he still has the speed/timing.

    There are a lot of other good sprinters in the race of course, a stronger field than 2021, and he has no real lead out train, so many more variables, and the need to fight for position.

    I think it will happen, maybe even more than one (Once he gets the uber confidence from the first one), but it will require everything aligning just right, where his competitors are, his positioning in the bunch, a clear path through, and the time he launches.

    When I read it like that, it makes it seem even less likely, but I am keeping the faith.

    I too have assumed he has won his last stage at least once before, probably even the 2016 opening stage, that I was fortunate enough to be at, was a pleasant surprise to me.
    I even said to myself, not expecting him to win, that I would buy the Synapse I had my eye on only if he won, and of course he did :D
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  • shinyhelmut
    shinyhelmut Posts: 1,364
    Heart says yes, head says no…
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,462
    I've gone 'no' partly as I don't want to tempt fate but mainly as there is such a strong sprint field this year. If he does get one I think it will be late in the race. I'm hoping that by tea time today my credentials as a pundit will be destroyed!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,119
    Only if he accepts that his team will be no help in the last 2km.

    He was in a good position yesterday with 3km to go - just behind the Uno X train but with only one teammate in front of him. By 1km to go he had been guided into the middle of the bunch with everyone in front and no real chance of winning.
  • N0bodyOfTheGoat
    N0bodyOfTheGoat Posts: 6,054
    I hope he does, but I don't follow races enough to rate his chances, I suspect if it happens then it will be Cav going wheel surfing rather than Astana sorting out a lead-out train.
    ================
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  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,137
    I wouldn't bank against the greatest TDF rider of all time winning another stage. Infact, I bet he's the greatest intergalactic rider of all time in the main GT race.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    Possible, but, perhaps unlikely... I really hope so though!
  • me-109
    me-109 Posts: 1,915
    On your average controlled finish sprint stage I can't see it happening. If he's the right side of a late split that cuts the numbers and sheds a few sprinters or other trains, he has every chance. Tactically he's generally good so may well be well placed if that split comes from crosswind echelons.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,119
    You need an awful lot to go right to win from here - but he was definitely fast enough in the finish.


  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,137
    He was the fastest rider yesterday at 45mph! I'd be happy doing that down hill.
  • JimD666
    JimD666 Posts: 2,293
    I wouldn't bet the house on it but...yeah I think he can win one.

    Really want him to leave it to the final stage but that would probably but a bit too "Hollywood". Would be fantastic though 😎
  • secretsqirrel
    secretsqirrel Posts: 2,119
    On the strength of the last 2 stages, yes I think he can as he has the speed and the head for it.
    May need a bit of luck tho’.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    I hope so but I'd be surprised
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    secretsqirrel said:

    On the strength of the last 2 stages, yes I think he can as he has the speed and the head for it.
    May need a bit of luck tho’.

    I didn't get that impression today tbf. Went backwards when it got going.
    _
  • Flasher2
    Flasher2 Posts: 19
    He followed the wrong wheel/Pederson, and was waiting for him to launch when he didn't Cav had no where to go!

    MvP did an amazing job for Philipsen, I'm not sure how Ewan got so close.
  • Lanterne_Rogue
    Lanterne_Rogue Posts: 4,332
    On balance, I just don't think the cookie's going to crumble for him even though he's clearly got the potential to do it.

    Plus literally everything else in sport has gone against me for the last six months, so I'm kind of resigned to it by now...
    Twitter: @canocola @thedreadships
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,820
    I'm a Cav fanboy so of course I think he will.

    In Paris.

    With a solo break 😂
  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,473
    I want him to, so voted yes, but it really doesn't look likely.
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,820
    Didn't look likely in the Giro tbf

    Edvald Boassen Hagen will lead him out on the Champs
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Have been consistently wrong on him with my forum predictions, so why break a habit of a lifetime.
    _
  • JimD666
    JimD666 Posts: 2,293
    Not going to help Cav, LLS is a non starter for stage 5.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,137
    edited July 2023
    I can't believe the 56% agnosticism towards greatness being shown here.

    Heathens!

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