Macroeconomics, the economy, inflation etc. *likely to be very dull*

rick_chasey

Client didn’t think that one through, bummer.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Client didn’t think that one through, bummer.

No, vendor was not as open as they should have been.

rick_chasey

Vendor as in the firm offering the ER?

Most of that stuff gets sold onwards so they need to put in penalties to keep them vanilla enough and similar enough they can package them all together.

Same reason you get penalty fees for overpaying your mortgage too much.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Vendor as in the firm offering the ER?

Most of that stuff gets sold onwards so they need to put in penalties to keep them vanilla enough and similar enough they can package them all together.

Same reason you get penalty fees for overpaying your mortgage too much.

No, the property vendor. There are few enough on the market that buyers have to just suck it up.

rick_chasey

Yes yes, though from the hiring that’s happening I expect ER supply and choice to grow substantially over the next 5 years.

It’s decent diversification for life businesses, who are being smacked around by rated atm

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Yes yes, though from the hiring that’s happening I expect ER supply and choice to grow substantially over the next 5 years.

It’s decent diversification for life businesses, who are being smacked around by rated atm

Rather confirming my suggestion that it's a good way to cream off a margin from property inflation.

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

Yes yes, though from the hiring that’s happening I expect ER supply and choice to grow substantially over the next 5 years.

It’s decent diversification for life businesses, who are being smacked around by rated atm

Rather confirming my suggestion that it's a good way to cream off a margin from property inflation.

As I said before, liquidity costs!

rjsterry

So if the ER provider creams off the appreciation who is paying the extra tax in your scenario?

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

So if the ER provider creams off the appreciation who is paying the extra tax in your scenario?

They don’t cream off, they provide a service, ie unlocking some illiquid capital tied up in the house.

So if you’re asset rich and cash poor, the well endowed financial services industry has plenty of options to unlock that capital and provide you with the necessary liquidity needed to pay your bills, including tax.

rjsterry

Thanks for the sales pitch.

Dorset_Boy

The usual Rick showing a little bit of knowledge of a subject is a dangerous thing!

Stevo_666

Even Labour has ruled out wealth tax so its a theoretical discussion, unless you're unlucky enough to live in Scotland where the SNP are still mulling it over.

rick_chasey

Dorset_Boy said:

The usual Rick showing a little bit of knowledge of a subject is a dangerous thing!

It’s usually more productive to explain why, rather than just get personal

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

Dorset_Boy said:

The usual Rick showing a little bit of knowledge of a subject is a dangerous thing!

It’s usually more productive to explain why, rather than just get personal

It's an illiquid product lasting an unknown duration from the lender's point of view, so it needs a healthy profit to mitigate the risks. That translates to poor value for the borrower who would likely have been much better off to downsize.

pblakeney

IMO equity release is on a similar level to PPI.

TheBigBean

Inflation data released today shows a very normal increase for Aug (0.31%). Here's how that compares to the past.

1998 0.28%
1999 0.28%
2000 0.00%
2001 0.41%
2002 0.27%
2003 0.40%
2004 0.26%
2005 0.26%
2006 0.50%
2007 0.37%
2008 0.71%
2009 0.35%
2010 0.56%
2011 0.54%
2012 0.52%
2013 0.41%
2014 0.30%
2015 0.30%
2016 0.30%
2017 0.58%
2018 0.66%
2019 0.46%
2020 -0.46%
2021 0.72%
2022 0.49%
2023 0.31%

pangolin

TheBigBean said:

Inflation data released today shows a very normal increase for Aug (0.31%). Here's how that compares to the past.

1998 0.28%
1999 0.28%
2000 0.00%
2001 0.41%
2002 0.27%
2003 0.40%
2004 0.26%
2005 0.26%
2006 0.50%
2007 0.37%
2008 0.71%
2009 0.35%
2010 0.56%
2011 0.54%
2012 0.52%
2013 0.41%
2014 0.30%
2015 0.30%
2016 0.30%
2017 0.58%
2018 0.66%
2019 0.46%
2020 -0.46%
2021 0.72%
2022 0.49%
2023 0.31%

These things usually work best as a graph, here you go:



HTH

Pross

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

Inflation data released today shows a very normal increase for Aug (0.31%). Here's how that compares to the past.

1998 0.28%
1999 0.28%
2000 0.00%
2001 0.41%
2002 0.27%
2003 0.40%
2004 0.26%
2005 0.26%
2006 0.50%
2007 0.37%
2008 0.71%
2009 0.35%
2010 0.56%
2011 0.54%
2012 0.52%
2013 0.41%
2014 0.30%
2015 0.30%
2016 0.30%
2017 0.58%
2018 0.66%
2019 0.46%
2020 -0.46%
2021 0.72%
2022 0.49%
2023 0.31%

These things usually work best as a graph, here you go:



HTH

Shouldn't the 'y' axis start at zero?

pangolin

Pross said:

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

Inflation data released today shows a very normal increase for Aug (0.31%). Here's how that compares to the past.

1998 0.28%
1999 0.28%
2000 0.00%
2001 0.41%
2002 0.27%
2003 0.40%
2004 0.26%
2005 0.26%
2006 0.50%
2007 0.37%
2008 0.71%
2009 0.35%
2010 0.56%
2011 0.54%
2012 0.52%
2013 0.41%
2014 0.30%
2015 0.30%
2016 0.30%
2017 0.58%
2018 0.66%
2019 0.46%
2020 -0.46%
2021 0.72%
2022 0.49%
2023 0.31%

These things usually work best as a graph, here you go:



HTH

Shouldn't the 'y' axis start at zero?

Great feedback, unfortunately there is a negative number so it's not appropriate here.

I have done so for the x axis though.

wallace_and_gromit

Pross said:

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

Inflation data released today shows a very normal increase for Aug (0.31%). Here's how that compares to the past.

1998 0.28%
1999 0.28%
2000 0.00%
2001 0.41%
2002 0.27%
2003 0.40%
2004 0.26%
2005 0.26%
2006 0.50%
2007 0.37%
2008 0.71%
2009 0.35%
2010 0.56%
2011 0.54%
2012 0.52%
2013 0.41%
2014 0.30%
2015 0.30%
2016 0.30%
2017 0.58%
2018 0.66%
2019 0.46%
2020 -0.46%
2021 0.72%
2022 0.49%
2023 0.31%

These things usually work best as a graph, here you go:



HTH

Shouldn't the 'y' axis start at zero?

Perhaps on this occasion not, as the time series contains a negative value! But a scale of -10% to +50% to cover 0%+/-1% is perhaps "unhelpful".

wallace_and_gromit

But more seriously, core inflation (excluding fuel and food) which the BoE is particularly keen on, as it is "controllable" within the UK fell by much more than expected this month.

First.Aspect

pangolin said:

Pross said:

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

Inflation data released today shows a very normal increase for Aug (0.31%). Here's how that compares to the past.

1998 0.28%
1999 0.28%
2000 0.00%
2001 0.41%
2002 0.27%
2003 0.40%
2004 0.26%
2005 0.26%
2006 0.50%
2007 0.37%
2008 0.71%
2009 0.35%
2010 0.56%
2011 0.54%
2012 0.52%
2013 0.41%
2014 0.30%
2015 0.30%
2016 0.30%
2017 0.58%
2018 0.66%
2019 0.46%
2020 -0.46%
2021 0.72%
2022 0.49%
2023 0.31%

These things usually work best as a graph, here you go:



HTH

Shouldn't the 'y' axis start at zero?

Great feedback, unfortunately there is a negative number so it's not appropriate here.

I have done so for the x axis though.

At the very least make the axis between 0.2 and 0.4%, and put a trend line that goes up on it. Just roughly in the middle of the data, doesn't have to be accurate.

rick_chasey

Top hole cakestopping

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

Top hole cakestopping

I don't think they're being serious.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Top hole cakestopping

Thought I'd better criticise the graph so you couldn't complain that we only criticise graphs that you post. Can't win sometimes.

shirley_basso

Did the millenium bug eat the Y2K data?

First.Aspect

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

Top hole cakestopping

I don't think they're being serious.

It's gone up massively since 2020. Can you remove the previous years to make that clearer please?

And whack an FT logo on it, or no one will take ypu seriously.

wallace_and_gromit

First.Aspect said:

Can you remove the previous years to make that clearer please?

This has to be a contender for the best sentence ever written on the internet. It works on multiple levels. Chapeau!

TheBigBean

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

Top hole cakestopping

I don't think they're being serious.

It's gone up massively since 2020. Can you remove the previous years to make that clearer please?

And whack an FT logo on it, or no one will take ypu seriously.

Unfortunately that will still make inflation look like it is falling. Try this one which shows a rolling three year average. Should be clear that we are about to face runaway inflation.

Do you think I could get a job at the FT?



double digital dice
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First.Aspect

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

Top hole cakestopping

I don't think they're being serious.

It's gone up massively since 2020. Can you remove the previous years to make that clearer please?

And whack an FT logo on it, or no one will take ypu seriously.

Unfortunately that will still make inflation look like it is falling. Try this one which shows a rolling three year average. Should be clear that we are about to face runaway inflation.

Do you think I could get a job at the FT?



double digital dice
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You don't have enough qualifications. Sorry experience, qualifications don't count. You will need to post bollocks on Twitter for a few years to gain credibility.