US Politics / Biden thread
Comments
-
Re the legal threats, I think there's a much more extensive network of lawyers ready to push back against the kinds of tactics they tried last time, as they revealed a lot of their hand then. Marc Elias is a hate figure amongst MAGA for his successes since then, and I think I read that the Democratic Party itself has engaged large numbers of lawyers. It'll obviously be the swing states where MAGA tries it on hardest.
It's actually a good incentive to get both houses of Congress with Democrat majorities, to prevent the sort of thing that Pence was pressured into doing. It might have helped the Dem cause that the House of Representatives basically did nothing with their Republican majority other than conduct dead-end investigations into, well, just about everything, and came up blank with every one.
0 -
Yep, that's a fair point.
Reports Harris could be bringing out the big guns, Taylor Swift, blimey.
1 -
I'd say she has rather more credibility than this lunatic
1 -
the maga/right have spent the time since the last election ramping up the denial, infiltrating election boards and other state offices, preparing legal challenges, lining up lawyers, ways to disallow results, discouraging the 'wrong kind' of voters, spreading conspiracy theories, claiming only favourable polls are honest, etc. etc., there's also the violent maga/right...
...the electoral college system was always vulnerable, it's never been subjected to the onslaught that's likely to occur if trump loses again
it could get extremely nasty, then we'll see if biden has the guts to use armed force to violently suppress insurrection and uphold the constitution, he wasted four years acting as if trump/maga were reasonable
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
You can't argue this pisses on your chips by a Swiftie level of magnitude.
0 -
All good points. The part that interests me though is the fact that Trump is a complete narcissist only interested in himself. If he sees a threat to that i.e. possible jail time on the felony charges, is he going to abandon all those who have supported him and look after number one?
0 -
What, Muncher's work as a government contractor?
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
If a legal system can't manage to resolve an election interference case one way or another before the next election comes around, there's something very, very wrong.
0 -
Yes. He won't hesitate, especially if it's not a close defeat. He'll do his best to stoke armed conflict, as he'd look on people dying trying to save his skin as a positive.
If he loses (still a big 'if'), it's going to be interesting to witness all the people who have sold their souls to suck up to him pretending that they hardly knew the guy.
If he wins, all bets on just about everything are off: the world would be at least a little fucked, and the fallout will be an international history inflexion point.
0 -
If he does lose, at what point do the Republicans ditch him or can they even do so? Trump's whole schtick is that he is a winner, but twice defeated (and his age) leaves him unelectable. I know a lot of people thinks he hands over the reigns to DT Jr. but I am guessing the senior republicans will want rid of the whole family, but will they have the bottle to do it or are they too entrenched?
0 -
-
If he does lose, they only get one go at getting rid of the Trump 'dynasty', if they hang on and back him with legal challenges then they are stuck for all eternity. Barron will probably be the Republican nominee by 2032!
0 -
Whatever "it" is that he has, Junior doesn't have it. Sure, you can be as weird as you like and still get some attention as part of a famous family (see RFK Junior) but you have to actually have some sprinkling of stardust to overcome it.
0 -
I would agree, but Daddy's grip on the party runs deep. If he loses, you would assume he will see Junior as the heir apparent. I think it is going to require a few people who so far have shown themselves to be pretty spineless to stand up to the guy and cut all ties and Donald will likely see his son as the presumptive nominee next time out.
0 -
If he wins, it's a real possibility that he tries to get his boy in. If he loses, he's a two time loser and possibly bankrupt or in prison. Not going to be the man anymore.
0 -
rfk jr reportedly is possible as health supremo, keen on banning fluoridation and some vaccines, trump didn't seem averse to this, completely batshit
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
If you read the full detail into the poll and what it highlights, it provides very interesting reading and highlights the way voting may break in a number of swing states (I know that Iowa itself is not a swing state). As we have discussed, Harris has considerably more support amongst women of all ages, but interestingly the gender gap amongst independents favours Harris, i.e. her lead with women has stayed stable but Trump's lead with men has shrunk. 65 and overs in the poll favour Harris, but amongst female over 65's it is a 2:1 margin.
I think a lot of what the Iowa poll is suggesting may well be replicated in other states which is why I strongly favour Harris.
0 -
It'd kill off a lot of stupids, though the 'collateral' would be more than a little unfortunate.
Yeah, he's batshit, and I suspect Trump would be recruiting a lot of conspiracy theorists to compound the batshittery.
0 -
Final Predictions then?
(I ask having just spent an hour reading around it a bit and have absolutely no idea at all. Vibes seem to be pro Harris but then the best numbers only objective analysis was for Trump. That last one though was d...was by ddd...was.. 🤢 ..Dan Hodges)
We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
As someone reminded optimistic Dems, they were very optimistic early Nov 2016 too.
That said, Trump had a rather different message back then from now... but maybe this will put a spring in people's steps as they trot off to the polls... you can see the enthusiasm from behind.
0 -
Harris as I have said throughout. For the following reasons.
- abortion ban has motivated a lot of women to vote.
- Trump isn't as popular as he thinks.
- a lot of Trump supporters; young men, tech bros, black and Hispanic men are unlikely to actually vote in as high a number as women
- Trumps message the last 2 weeks has been non existent and Harris has been more focussed.
- the democrats have far more grassroots vols and a targeted ground game to literally get people to voting stations. Trump relies almost solely on social media.
0 -
Lol
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Remember, black is white in Trumpland, when it suits. There would be a sweet irony if Musk were found guilty through the evidence of his idiotic tweets.
0 -
Too close to call IMO.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
-
My only doubt about calling it for Harris is I don't know how much of the stuff about whose support is more likely to turn out is built into these polling models.
If we were just seeing the numbers from a random sample of the electorate without any manipulation based on past elections I'd be more confident - but I don"t think we are are we ?
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
I think that might be why the Iowa poll caused a stir... it's a very simple system, with a good track record for Iowa over several cycles, and had shifted significantly towards Harris since the previous poll they ran. Ann Selzer, who does it, seems to be highly regarded, which is one reason it caused such a stir.
0 -
Correct. The polls are close because they are correcting for errors in past years. There seems to be a skew towards democrats in terms of who is likely to answer; the phone / door/ question/ truthfully.
The early exit polls will be similarly problematic, I think.
Either way, if there is another democrat win, there will be violence and a lot of lawyers ready to file some confetti.
0 -
It sounds as if they will be a bit better prepared for the violence this time; the lawsuits are a given especially if it is close.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
