TDF 2020 - Stage 18: Méribel - La Roche-sur-Foron 175 km *Spoilers*

blazing_saddles

Stage 18: Méribel - La Roche-sur-Foron 175 km

The course of the day is made for the most enduring climbers. Indeed over 4,000m of climbing will be on the menu. In the following order, the peloton will head up to the Cormet de Roselend, then the Col des Saisies followed by Les Aravis and finally the Plateau des Glières, a key location of the French Resistance, before continuing towards La Roche-sur-Foron. – Christian Prudhomme



The 18th stage on the Tour de France runs parallel to the borders with Italy and Switzerland through the Alps. At 168 kilometres, the race travels over five intermediate climbs to a downhill finish in La Roche-sur-Foron.



Following an extended false flat the uphill party gets going on the Cormet de Roselend. The climb to the summit at 1,968 metres is 19 kilometres long and the average gradient sits at 6%.



No rest for the wicked. The descent runs onto the Col de Saisies, which is another long ascent (15 kilometres) although the average gradient is moderate at 6.1%.



Following a short stint in the valley the Col des Aravis appears – 6.7 kilometres at 7% – before the riders fly down a 20 kilometres descent to the foot of the Montée du plateau des Glières.



The core of the race is expected to be the steep and partly unpaved Plateau des Glières. Is the Tour going to be decided in this spectacular scenery?
The Plateau des Glières climbs for 6 kilometres at 11.2% and never drops below 10%. After reaching the limestone plateau the route continues on 2 kilometres of false flat gravel roads. Two years ago Froome punctured on this stretch. It happened without consequences, as it was still a long way to the finish line.
This time the Montée du plateau des Glières is only 20 kilometres away from the finish.

The first three riders on the summit pocket time bonuses of 8, 5 and 2 seconds.





The finale is played out on the Col des Fleuries, which is a climb at shallow gradients – 5.5 kilometres at 4.6% – before the last 10 kilometres rund downhill into La Roche-sur-Foron.





The battle for yellow is likely to ignite on the flanks of Montée du plateau des Glières, although riders with limited time trialing skills may opt to strike earlier with an all-or-nothing attack.


Favourites 18th stage 2020 Tour de France

*** Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic, Miguel Ángel López
** Mikel Landa, Adam Yates, Enric Mas, Sepp Kuss, Marc Hirschi
* Richie Porte, Warren Barguil, Rigoberto Uran, Lennard Kämna

On the road

Cormet de Roselend (1,968 m)

Linking the Beaufortain Valley to the Mont-Blanc massif, Cormet de Roselend has been ridden 11 times by Tour riders since 1979. The latest rider to lead the race at the top was Warren Barguil in 2018.



Beaufort (Pop: 2,100)

Overlooking the Doron, the vestiges of the château de Beaufort, built on the site of a Roman villa, reflect the long history of the village. Home of the Beaufort lords, the King of France and the House of Savoy, the castle has been inhabited since the 16th century by religious congregations. Beaufort is also famous for giving its names to a famous cheese made in the Beaufortain, Tarentaise and Maurrenne valleys.
Dubbed the Prince of Gruyères, Beaufort is a smooth, ivory to pale yellow cheese with a fruity taste of extreme finesse. This cooked pressed cheese is made from the milk of the purebred cows or Abundance populating the mountain pastures in the summer. More than 10 kilos of milk are needed to get a kilo of Beaufort.



Plateau des Glières Memorial

Chosen as a parachuting ground by the Allies, the Plateau des Glières sheltered in February and March 1944 more than 460 members of the French Resistance, responsible for receiving weapons for the whole of Haute-Savoie. The maquis des Glières, evacuated on March 26, 1944 after an attack by the German army, became the symbol of the Resistance and the site its first direct fighting against the occupiers.



La Roche-sur-Foron

No previous stage

Population: 12,150

Specialties: cheese (Abondance, Reblochon, Tomme of Savoy), fondue savoyarde, tartiflette,



raclette, berthoud, Rochoise beer (silver medal in 2018).

FreddieVonRost

Thank you, blazing saddles, another superb post.

There will be some very tired legs tomorrow evening.

lettingthedaysgoby

Thats the sort of stage profile that makes my legs hurt just looking at it.

above_the_cows

"The Plateau des Glières climbs for 6 kilometres at 11.2% and never drops below 10%."

above_the_cows

But more importantly when will the Toblerone melt?

Dorset_Boy

Recce for last year's Etape

davidof

climbing to the Plateau de Glieres in late autumn, yuck. It is a fast descent though, you could probably stay away to the end.

I would put in an attack exactly where my friend does just after a short flat section where the road ramps up for a km before you reach the plateau.

https://youtu.be/AF_o2kgP0tw

No_Ta_Doctor

above_the_cows said:

But more importantly when will the Toblerone melt?

I don't think he will (probably the kiss of death there).

Oh and Mads P on Porte:
He's going well, he got past the 9th stage without crashing, so that counts as a success criteria.

salsiccia1

I don't think he will either, but I don't see him overhauling Lopez for 3rd unless he monsters the time trial.

Edit: I'd be delighted to see him on the podium though.

darkhairedlord

We need some rain on a course like this.

salsiccia1

Punctures on that daft gravel bit would be almost guaranteed if it rains.

Pross

salsiccia1 said:

Punctures on that daft gravel bit would be almost guaranteed if it rains.

My concern with the gravel is that it will cause punctures on the descent which could be a bit dodgy.

DeVlaeminck

Bennett seems to be going ok but if Bora were to try and time him out is this the kind of stage you'd choose? Straight into a decent climb so he might be dropped from the start and then very little flat for him to get towed to the finish. I could see some riders struggling to make the cut if it's full gas from the start.

RichN95.

I hope a team hits the early climb hard to see who's legs have recovered. Maybe a Formigal situation.

pblakeney

I think they’ll be watching each other and letting the also rans have their fun up ahead.
Edit - That will all change if someone in the top 5 or 6 has a bad day. It’ll all kick off then!

RichN95.

pblakeney said:

I think they’ll be watching each other and letting the also rans have their fun up ahead.
Edit - That will all change if someone in the top 5 or 6 has a bad day. It’ll all kick off then!

Well that's it. If no gets caught out then, no-one will ride. You're winning PTP though so you know best

Lanterne_Rogue

DeVlaeminck said:

Bennett seems to be going ok but if Bora were to try and time him out is this the kind of stage you'd choose? Straight into a decent climb so he might be dropped from the start and then very little flat for him to get towed to the finish. I could see some riders struggling to make the cut if it's full gas from the start.

It's possible, but Bennett's looked less troubled as time has gone on, and yesterday Sagan's attempts to shake him seemed mostly performative. It might even give them a bigger problem, as Ewan looks to be struggling more so it might just make it easier for Bennett to score highly in the couple of final sprints where the points gaps are bigger between places. Ewan might be an illusion though - his team are very proactive about settling for riding to the likely time cut from a long way out.

mididoctors

Low abandons this year ? Still big peloton?

blazing_saddles

DeVlaeminck said:

Bennett seems to be going ok but if Bora were to try and time him out is this the kind of stage you'd choose? Straight into a decent climb so he might be dropped from the start and then very little flat for him to get towed to the finish. I could see some riders struggling to make the cut if it's full gas from the start.

Word is that Bora are going to hit it hard from the start and try and put Bennett OT.
An "If you can't beat him in the sprints, beat him on the roads." ploy.
Thing is even if they manage this, he would likely have a sizeable group going OT with him.
So, we would probably be in the situation where he was docked a chunk of points.
Matteo Trentin could end up benefiting the most.

For those hoping for rain, there is a weather warning over the entire area for thunderstorms, but I think that could be late on and localised.

Weather at the finish:

rick_chasey

No_Ta_Doctor said:

above_the_cows said:

But more importantly when will the Toblerone melt?

I don't think he will (probably the kiss of death there).

Oh and Mads P on Porte:
He's going well, he got past the 9th stage without crashing, so that counts as a success criteria.

Aaaahahahahaha

bobmcstuff

Oh cool, I have ridden Col des Aravis . After Col de la Colombiere though so I guess from a different side?

Neither INRNG or the bookies think today will be a GC day, in contrast to OP ratings.

INRNG:
*** Max Schachmann, Daniel Martinez
** Pavel Sivakov, Michał Kwiatkowski, Tiesj Benoot
* Alaphilippe, Hirschi, Peters, Lutsenko, Powless, Molard

Bookies odds wide open today:
*** Marc Hirschi (only rider below 10/1)
** Martinez, Kwiatkowski, Carapaz, Roglic, Pogacar (all around 11 or 12/1)
* Bilbao, Schachmann, Valverde (!), Lopez, Alaphilippe all around 20/1

Big difference on Hirschi there - also OP gives a ** ranking for Hirschi. Inrng not tipping him because he is untested over 3 weeks but that seems a bit tenuous to me - untested doesn't mean he is going to fail.

I'd like Martinez to win.

rick_chasey

Not even 180km is it.

mididoctors

Desperate Kom hopefuls reach out

mididoctors

I want carapaz to win but he will be knackered most likely after that ride ...which was classy . Came way closer than I thought he would

blazing_saddles

bobmcstuff said:

Oh cool, I have ridden Col des Aravis . After Col de la Colombiere though so I guess from a different side?

Neither INRNG or the bookies think today will be a GC day, in contrast to OP ratings.

INRNG:
*** Max Schachmann, Daniel Martinez
** Pavel Sivakov, Michał Kwiatkowski, Tiesj Benoot
* Alaphilippe, Hirschi, Peters, Lutsenko, Powless, Molard

Bookies odds wide open today:
*** Marc Hirschi (only rider below 10/1)
** Martinez, Kwiatkowski, Carapaz, Roglic, Pogacar (all around 11 or 12/1)
* Bilbao, Schachmann, Valverde (!), Lopez, Alaphilippe all around 20/1

Big difference on Hirschi there - also OP gives a ** ranking for Hirschi. Inrng not tipping him because he is untested over 3 weeks but that seems a bit tenuous to me - untested doesn't mean he is going to fail.

I'd like Martinez to win.

Me too cos I picked him.

Frankly couldn't be arsed to give stars a load of breakaway chancers, but there's likely to be one who wins. Just stuck in a couple of the most usual suspects.
If for some reason it does come down to a GC scrap, then I have it covered.

mididoctors

One stage too far for sunweb I am guessing

DeVlaeminck

Yeah I thought Carapaz's ride - given the day before and the work he did on the day - was a real reminder he is an amazing talent - even if Bernal does get back to his best he may have competition from within Ineos.

mididoctors

Big group off the front. mix of hopefuls and those going for sliding room . Jumbo want to let it go

mididoctors

Bennet takes the sprint

mididoctors

Kamna and shachmann bridging

mididoctors

Interest in the peloton still