The big Coronavirus thread

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  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rick_chasey said:

    pangolin said:

    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    Dogbert makes a good point

    https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-04-22

    Wise advice for some regulars on this thread :)
    Hand on heart, I am less stressed and healthier than I have been in absolutely ages.

    Cycling every day (in the garden), lost a stone, work is going really well, lot of time with the family.
    I am not having a good lockdown.
    What's causing difficulties?
    In descending order no childcare, young kids, having to work quite hard, limited prospects of that turning into money, lack of sleep, inevitably of economic disaster and lots and lots of deaths, not being allowed out, society getting to the point where everyone is scared of each other.
    I do think that people's enjoyment of lock down is closely tied to whether they have any toddlers or not.
    It's easier if only one if you has a job (like in my instance). I like her but my 18 month old is a royal pain in the censored at the moment.

    I'd love it if she could stop constantly falling over and screaming.


    haha, my neighbours have a 2.5 year old and they said exactly the same about their daughter !!!!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 62,022
    rick_chasey said:

    pangolin said:

    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    Dogbert makes a good point

    https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-04-22

    Wise advice for some regulars on this thread :)
    Hand on heart, I am less stressed and healthier than I have been in absolutely ages.

    Cycling every day (in the garden), lost a stone, work is going really well, lot of time with the family.
    I am not having a good lockdown.
    What's causing difficulties?
    In descending order no childcare, young kids, having to work quite hard, limited prospects of that turning into money, lack of sleep, inevitably of economic disaster and lots and lots of deaths, not being allowed out, society getting to the point where everyone is scared of each other.
    I do think that people's enjoyment of lock down is closely tied to whether they have any toddlers or not.
    It's easier if only one if you has a job (like in my instance). I like her but my 18 month old is a royal pain in the censored at the moment.

    I'd love it if she could stop constantly falling over and screaming.
    True, 18 years olds are a lot easier to manage than 18 month olds (as long as your broadband connection holds up). I would really not be enjoying a lock down with young children - one of my Treasury lot who has two young 'uns recently compared his domestic situation to Guantanamo Bay.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,702
    rick_chasey said:

    Pross said:

    First, and hopefully last, funeral under Covid restrictions done. Quite a surreal experience but at least we got to say our farewell whereas many others haven't.

    Sorry to hear that Pross. It's pretty weird, isn't it? Much more a solo experience
    Yep. In a way I found it easier as I usually find other people's harder to deal with than the funeral itself. It felt odd doing a reading to 4 others 3 of whom live in my house.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,745
    edited April 2020
    DeVlaeminck said:


    To suggest that the 20/21 season may not happen to the vast majority is like suggesting the world is flat - the response is somewhere between surprise and being dismissed as trolling.

    Slightly feel the same although the lack of a 20/21 ski season is a more legitimate view here. I'm with you though, I just don't see it. Without tourism, Chamonix Valley is 3 cow sheds rather than 3 thriving villages (a point I rather wish some of the locals would realise before they re dickheads to non-locals).

    I can see some words being thrown at it - like everyone has to wear a mask on the cable car - but I can't see it lasting past christmas.

    I'd say there's still a question about summer, but even that I begin to think will pick up albeit much quieter than before.
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    bradsbeard said:

    I think some of these government scientists live in Michael Bentine’s Potty Land.

    Society as we know can’t afford to hide away for 18 months. That will break society.

    Surely we have accept the inevitable if we want to maintain living standards as we know?

    As long as the NHS has the capacity then life needs to open again.

    Protect the vulnerable. Isolate the infected.

    It has always been known a pandemic like this would come about but heads were stuck in the sand.

    If there’s one thing to send the human race into a tizz then it’s mortality.

    I beg please open barbers shops ASAP.

    You won't be going back to normal. And noone's suggesting that we'll all be in our houses for 18 months non-stop.

    The phrase "we have accept the inevitable if we want to maintain living standards as we know" means letting deaths happen that don't necessarily need to, because you want things to be like they were before. Accept that things won't, and then move forward with trying to get it under control, restrict the spread and save some lives.

    But I agree that barbers and hairdressers especially will be a big step forward. Makes no odds to my limited hair because I get my hair cut in the kitchen. But I've already helped do a colouring, and there's no way I'm going anywhere near her hair with scissors. Your barber will be dressed up like an ICU doctor though if the guidance from where they are opening up in the USA is anything to go by:
    https://sos.ga.gov/PLB/acrobat/Forms/28 Safety Guidelines for Return to Work - COVID19.pdf

    Personal Protective Gear-
     Wearing masks – Salon/shop employees will be required to wear masks at all times. Salons may want to consider providing masks to clients. Clients should wear face masks to the extent possible while receiving services.
     Face Shields – If available, it is recommended that employees wear face shields when servicing clients.
     Gloves – It is recommended that employees wear disposable gloves when servicing clients and change gloves between each client to the greatest extent possible.
     Capes - Each client should be draped with a clean cape. Capes should be laundered
    following the fabric recommendations between each client, or salons/shops may consider using disposable capes and dispose of the cape after it is used.
     Smocks -Employees should wear a clean smock between each client. Smocks should be laundered following the fabric recommendations between each client, or salons/shops may consider using disposable smocks and dispose of the smock after use on a client.
     Neck strips – Employees should use protective neck strips around the neck of each hair-cut client.
     Hand-washing with soapy, warm water, for a minimum of 20 seconds will be required by employees between every client service.
     Employee clothing – Employees should arrive at the salon/shop showered and wearing clean clothing. Employees should change clothes before entering their homes when they return from work.
     PPG, such as gloves, gowns, drapes, linens and eye coverings should be changed between each client. These used items should be cleaned and disinfected or discarded in a closed container.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    Fully understand why some will be finding the lockdown extremely hard. I'm seeing examples within my circle of work colleagues, family and friends........

    My brother was working in a start up, as soon as Coronavirus kicked off the company fired almost everyone including him. His employment prospects look bleak and he's getting really worried about the financial implications of it.

    The chap that lives across the road from me (cyclist, often spin out to Windsor and back with him at the weekend) is an IT guy, had been working on contract basis for many years. He took a sabbatical from work for a few months prior to Coronavirus to help look after one of his children (long story) and was just in the process of agreeing a contract with a new firm when they stopped all hires. He's now concerned he won't get back into employment for many months.

    I have someone at work, who lives alone in the middle of nowhere, and she's openly admitted that her only social interaction is with people in the office. Quite a strange character, she's now really struggling psychologically with not having people around her.

  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,702
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    I think they have scared people too much. If they ended all restrictions tomorrow I don’t think it would go back towards anything resembling normal.

    I don't really understand how the second sentence is bad?

    Isn't that literally the point?
    I really believe that the vast majority of the British public are rule takers who can be trusted with an easing of restrictions.
    The problem is that it is hard for everyone else to follow the rules if only a small number of people ignore them.
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    bradsbeard said:

    I think some of these government scientists live in Michael Bentine’s Potty Land.

    Society as we know can’t afford to hide away for 18 months. That will break society.

    Surely we have accept the inevitable if we want to maintain living standards as we know?

    As long as the NHS has the capacity then life needs to open again.

    Protect the vulnerable. Isolate the infected.

    It has always been known a pandemic like this would come about but heads were stuck in the sand.

    If there’s one thing to send the human race into a tizz then it’s mortality.

    I beg please open barbers shops ASAP.

    You open up barbershops first!?

    I'm quite enjoying finding out that the chrome dome look isn't a total disaster, at least I'm not self conscious about the ever growing bald spot...

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 62,022
    kingstongraham said:

    Longshot said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It will be things like heavy restrictions on number of people in shops, cafes - no standing drinking allowed, only seated and with people you live with 4m from everyone else, trains 1/4 full, offices only staffed 1/3 full and only then if they have actual windows they can open. Cinemas 1/5th full if they means they can still sit at a distance from each other.

    That kind of thing.

    You can kiss things like sports or concerts or clubs goodbye.


    Public transport will be the biggest issue bar none when it comes to social distancing. In order to meet a 2m rule on SD my usual trains would need to be 1/20th of their usual numbers.

    As we all know and acknowledge, not everyone can work from home. Managing that will be a nightmare - I'm not sure it's possible when companies are going to be trying ot get back to some form of normality.
    I used to get the Victoria line - to maintain 2 metres they would need more trains than there is track.
    Public transport does not appeal for some time - if we do go back to the office and manage numbers to enable spacing then I will likely go in by bike and occasionally drive when I do go (probably will WFH a lot more).
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    bradsbeard said:

    I think some of these government scientists live in Michael Bentine’s Potty Land.

    Society as we know can’t afford to hide away for 18 months. That will break society.

    Surely we have accept the inevitable if we want to maintain living standards as we know?

    As long as the NHS has the capacity then life needs to open again.

    Protect the vulnerable. Isolate the infected.

    It has always been known a pandemic like this would come about but heads were stuck in the sand.

    If there’s one thing to send the human race into a tizz then it’s mortality.

    I beg please open barbers shops ASAP.

    You are unfairly blaming scientists, they merely advised the Govt of the options and potential outcomes. The Govt the. Made decisions based upon that advice.

    If you listen to the messaging I have no doubt that the scientists are being lined up front and centre in the blame game.

    I managed to find some clippers in stock and they arrived yesterday. Have promised my seven year old she can cut my hair - what could possibly go wrong
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,112
    rick_chasey said:

    It will be things like heavy restrictions on number of people in shops, cafes - no standing drinking allowed, only seated and with people you live with 4m from everyone else, trains 1/4 full, offices only staffed 1/3 full and only then if they have actual windows they can open. Cinemas 1/5th full if they means they can still sit at a distance from each other.

    That kind of thing.

    You can kiss things like sports or concerts or clubs goodbye.

    I agree with you, and I suppose how hard that hits depends on whether it's your "thing" that is banned or not.

    At the moment I'm fitter than I've been in a while, I did 404 miles on the bike last week which is the most I've ever done, I'm doing sets of push ups, chin ups, core exercises, weighted squats every other day and starting to feel the benefit, I've lost 4-5lbs, but there's that feeling of why?

    I actually wish my kids were young again so it'd give me some purpose. I'm that close to actually getting stuck into some DIY projects !! And this is after what, a month?
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited April 2020
    bradsbeard said:

    I think some of these government scientists live in Michael Bentine’s Potty Land.

    Society as we know can’t afford to hide away for 18 months. That will break society.

    Surely we have accept the inevitable if we want to maintain living standards as we know?

    As long as the NHS has the capacity then life needs to open again.

    Protect the vulnerable. Isolate the infected.

    It has always been known a pandemic like this would come about but heads were stuck in the sand.

    If there’s one thing to send the human race into a tizz then it’s mortality.

    I beg please open barbers shops ASAP.

    You know humans have been doing social distancing since pandemics have happened? 1665 the 'lockdown' lasted 18 months.

    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    Stevo_666 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Longshot said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It will be things like heavy restrictions on number of people in shops, cafes - no standing drinking allowed, only seated and with people you live with 4m from everyone else, trains 1/4 full, offices only staffed 1/3 full and only then if they have actual windows they can open. Cinemas 1/5th full if they means they can still sit at a distance from each other.

    That kind of thing.

    You can kiss things like sports or concerts or clubs goodbye.


    Public transport will be the biggest issue bar none when it comes to social distancing. In order to meet a 2m rule on SD my usual trains would need to be 1/20th of their usual numbers.

    As we all know and acknowledge, not everyone can work from home. Managing that will be a nightmare - I'm not sure it's possible when companies are going to be trying ot get back to some form of normality.
    I used to get the Victoria line - to maintain 2 metres they would need more trains than there is track.
    Public transport does not appeal for some time - if we do go back to the office and manage numbers to enable spacing then I will likely go in by bike and occasionally drive when I do go (probably will WFH a lot more).
    I caught fewer colds when I started commuting by bike. I got hit by more cars though, so swings and roundabouts.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 62,022
    kingstongraham said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Longshot said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It will be things like heavy restrictions on number of people in shops, cafes - no standing drinking allowed, only seated and with people you live with 4m from everyone else, trains 1/4 full, offices only staffed 1/3 full and only then if they have actual windows they can open. Cinemas 1/5th full if they means they can still sit at a distance from each other.

    That kind of thing.

    You can kiss things like sports or concerts or clubs goodbye.


    Public transport will be the biggest issue bar none when it comes to social distancing. In order to meet a 2m rule on SD my usual trains would need to be 1/20th of their usual numbers.

    As we all know and acknowledge, not everyone can work from home. Managing that will be a nightmare - I'm not sure it's possible when companies are going to be trying ot get back to some form of normality.
    I used to get the Victoria line - to maintain 2 metres they would need more trains than there is track.
    Public transport does not appeal for some time - if we do go back to the office and manage numbers to enable spacing then I will likely go in by bike and occasionally drive when I do go (probably will WFH a lot more).
    I caught fewer colds when I started commuting by bike. I got hit by more cars though, so swings and roundabouts.
    Only ever been clipped (by a van) once in 11 years of bike commuting, so I'll take my chances on two wheels. Car should also be OK if traffic levels stay (relatively) light by London standards.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • laurentian
    laurentian Posts: 2,596
    I would imagine that, whether public transport or offices, pubs or sports etc etc are the subject, a detailed risk assessment will need to be completed by the relevant people and their methods of operation will need to be detailed and monitored.

    If someting can take place or a business can operate with an acceptable level of risk , then there is absolutely no reason why it should not. Conversely anything which presents a significant risk should not.

    As somebody mentioned earlier, a blanket ban is easier to enforce than a nuanced one.

    I was very involved with the foot and mouth outbreak some years ago and in the reopening of slaughtering and processing facilities. Although this is a world away in terms of human cost, the principles are the same.

    As a fantastic person from the then Ministry of Agriculture said to me at the time

    ". . . don't think rules, think virus . . ."
    Wilier Izoard XP
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    surrey_commuter said:


    I managed to find some clippers in stock and they arrived yesterday. Have promised my seven year old she can cut my hair - what could possibly go wrong


    Where? I can't get any!
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 62,022
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:


    I managed to find some clippers in stock and they arrived yesterday. Have promised my seven year old she can cut my hair - what could possibly go wrong


    Where? I can't get any!
    I bought a set from Argos, but that was a few weeks ago.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,933
    surrey_commuter said:

    bradsbeard said:

    I think some of these government scientists live in Michael Bentine’s Potty Land.

    Society as we know can’t afford to hide away for 18 months. That will break society.

    Surely we have accept the inevitable if we want to maintain living standards as we know?

    As long as the NHS has the capacity then life needs to open again.

    Protect the vulnerable. Isolate the infected.

    It has always been known a pandemic like this would come about but heads were stuck in the sand.

    If there’s one thing to send the human race into a tizz then it’s mortality.

    I beg please open barbers shops ASAP.

    You are unfairly blaming scientists, they merely advised the Govt of the options and potential outcomes. The Govt the. Made decisions based upon that advice.

    If you listen to the messaging I have no doubt that the scientists are being lined up front and centre in the blame game.

    I managed to find some clippers in stock and they arrived yesterday. Have promised my seven year old she can cut my hair - what could possibly go wrong
    We simply must have a DIY haircut thread when the time comes :)
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,517
    As lockdown is lifted, the social distancing rules will be harder than they appear to need to be, because some demographics will inevitably bend or break them - I'm thinking over confident 20-something men, belligerent 40-something men - basically all of the same people you don't want to be driving a car anywhere near you.

    There is bound to be a lifting of the minimum number of people allowed to gather, and we all need to start looking for t-shirts to sacrifice as face masks for shopping. Home working will be "encouraged" where possible (which will include me) and I think a lot of firms are going to need to take a sympathetic approach to people who can only commute by public transport and/or who have vulnerable people cohabiting with them.

    I have no idea when we are going to be able to safely see our parents/grandparents etc. again.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,745
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:


    I managed to find some clippers in stock and they arrived yesterday. Have promised my seven year old she can cut my hair - what could possibly go wrong


    Where? I can't get any!
    I dropped mine and they broke 😭😭😭😭
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    As I have pointed out already the problem with the scaring everyone into the lockdown is reversing that.

    Take your average cafe and the new social distancing rules it will have to abide by. There is a good chance it will open and lose more money than it is now. That means a closed cafe and lost jobs.

    There will be no trying on of clothes in clothes shops. What is the point of them re-opening?

    Both of the above also then have to get past the lower footfall from the current public fear. They are also not essential journeys so how are they going to get the footfall.

    Undoing the panic enduced clusterf*ck created is going to be way harder than many believe and many will fail because of this.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    bradsbeard said:

    I think some of these government scientists live in Michael Bentine’s Potty Land.

    Society as we know can’t afford to hide away for 18 months. That will break society.

    Surely we have accept the inevitable if we want to maintain living standards as we know?

    As long as the NHS has the capacity then life needs to open again.

    Protect the vulnerable. Isolate the infected.

    It has always been known a pandemic like this would come about but heads were stuck in the sand.

    If there’s one thing to send the human race into a tizz then it’s mortality.

    I beg please open barbers shops ASAP.

    You are unfairly blaming scientists, they merely advised the Govt of the options and potential outcomes. The Govt the. Made decisions based upon that advice.

    If you listen to the messaging I have no doubt that the scientists are being lined up front and centre in the blame game.

    I managed to find some clippers in stock and they arrived yesterday. Have promised my seven year old she can cut my hair - what could possibly go wrong
    We simply must have a DIY haircut thread when the time comes :)

    We definitely need a before and after shot !!!!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    After adjusting for multiple underlying long term conditions, average number of years of life lost per death estimated in this study to be more than a decade.

    To be clear about the adjustments that are made here: "The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6)."

  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:


    I managed to find some clippers in stock and they arrived yesterday. Have promised my seven year old she can cut my hair - what could possibly go wrong


    Where? I can't get any!
    Yhttps://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0746SFGLV/ref=pe_3187911_185740111_TE_item

    Bought earlier this week
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    First.Aspect said:

    I have no idea when we are going to be able to safely see our parents/grandparents etc. again.

    Ignoring the rules, this could be done safely now.

    Sit outside in the garden downwind of the parents/grandparents and keep at least 2m apart. The risk is being in an enclosed space.

    However I know of one example where the older relative is so fearful of this solution that thinking about this is worse than leaving them in isolation. There is more risk from the mental side of C19 than the virus itself.

    The long term mental effects of the panic created are going to be huge. I don't know how they are going to be overcome by those scarred by the media created fear.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    coopster_the_1st said:



    However I know of one example where the older relative is so fearful of this solution that thinking about this is worse than leaving them in isolation. There is more risk from the mental side of C19 than the virus itself.

    Got any evidence for this, where the higher risk groups are concerned?
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    kingstongraham said:

    After adjusting for multiple underlying long term conditions, average number of years of life lost per death estimated in this study to be more than a decade.

    To be clear about the adjustments that are made here: "The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6)."

    A couple of things.

    They have used a right mismatch of data...feels like they may have gone on a fishing trip.

    Secondly, if I'm reading the synopsis correctly, they have assumed the number of comorbidities amongst the number of deaths based on the underlying population, rather than using the actual number of comorbities that the people dying have been suffering from.

  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    kingstongraham said:

    After adjusting for multiple underlying long term conditions, average number of years of life lost per death estimated in this study to be more than a decade.

    To be clear about the adjustments that are made here: "The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6)."

    This is at odds with the view of the person whose model our governmnet are following.

    He said two thrids of those dying would have died in the next 6 months.

    Also, by their nature, very few in a care home live for more than a couple of years(those in there will have already have been there some time already). How does this correlate with your view that the FT was correct with the number of care home deaths?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    Jeremy.89 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    After adjusting for multiple underlying long term conditions, average number of years of life lost per death estimated in this study to be more than a decade.

    To be clear about the adjustments that are made here: "The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6)."

    A couple of things.

    They have used a right mismatch of data...feels like they may have gone on a fishing trip.

    Secondly, if I'm reading the synopsis correctly, they have assumed the number of comorbidities amongst the number of deaths based on the underlying population, rather than using the actual number of comorbities that the people dying have been suffering from.

    Pretty sure that's not right - look at the section "Long-term condition prevalence and correlation models."
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    edited April 2020
    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    After adjusting for multiple underlying long term conditions, average number of years of life lost per death estimated in this study to be more than a decade.

    To be clear about the adjustments that are made here: "The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6)."

    This is at odds with the view of the person whose model our governmnet are following.

    He said two thrids of those dying would have died in the next 6 months.

    Also, by their nature, very few in a care home live for more than a couple of years(those in there will have already have been there some time already). How does this correlate with your view that the FT was correct with the number of care home deaths?
    Might be worth thinking about. Can you repost?

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