The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.
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That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.0 -
The debate I saw went as follows:Pross said:
The Q&A I heard with the virologist bloke the other day on the BBC suggested that they really aren't that effective at doing so and become less so the more moist they get. It did make me wonder why surgical staff wear them routinely if that was the case though.kingstongraham said:
They might stop you infecting someone else if you have it.Pross said:
Isn't there still quite a bit of debate about whether they help at all though? I thought the WHO advice was that they aren't much use.kingstongraham said:
Instructions on how to make one here:Pross said:
Can you see us getting enough face masks for the general population when they currently can't get enough for critical workers?TheBigBean said:
So best to not have face masks, full social contact and lots of tests?rick_chasey said:
The large variations in deaths and survival rates across Europe, let alone Asia suggests the way things are done has an effect, so I would suggest this is not a good strategy.TheBigBean said:Personally, I think testing is a red herring. I would go with mandatory face masks, some social distancing and an expectation that people will die whatever the approach that is taken. Some notional track and trace can be thrown on top.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html
I did have the dust mask I was given as a joke at the fell race I did just before things really kicked off but that's disappeared so I'd probably just use a buff.
Chinese expert - Detailed explanation of how virus transmits and how face masks help
Western expert - Hasn't been fully researched yet, so not able to change standard advice.
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Fair enough. I'm more than happy to wear one but always felt they are more of a psychological thing.TheBigBean said:
The debate I saw went as follows:Pross said:
The Q&A I heard with the virologist bloke the other day on the BBC suggested that they really aren't that effective at doing so and become less so the more moist they get. It did make me wonder why surgical staff wear them routinely if that was the case though.kingstongraham said:
They might stop you infecting someone else if you have it.Pross said:
Isn't there still quite a bit of debate about whether they help at all though? I thought the WHO advice was that they aren't much use.kingstongraham said:
Instructions on how to make one here:Pross said:
Can you see us getting enough face masks for the general population when they currently can't get enough for critical workers?TheBigBean said:
So best to not have face masks, full social contact and lots of tests?rick_chasey said:
The large variations in deaths and survival rates across Europe, let alone Asia suggests the way things are done has an effect, so I would suggest this is not a good strategy.TheBigBean said:Personally, I think testing is a red herring. I would go with mandatory face masks, some social distancing and an expectation that people will die whatever the approach that is taken. Some notional track and trace can be thrown on top.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html
I did have the dust mask I was given as a joke at the fell race I did just before things really kicked off but that's disappeared so I'd probably just use a buff.
Chinese expert - Detailed explanation of how virus transmits and how face masks help
Western expert - Hasn't been fully researched yet, so not able to change standard advice.0 -
Some data is "noisy", you can't guarantee a high degree of accuracy. The care market is so atomised across big corporate providers and small independents that the data takes a long time to "cleanse". NHS Hospitals in England (and a lot of NHS England contracted private hospitals) all work to standards set by NHS England and reports flow into the same pool of data according to NHS England reporting templates. So data is much more "clean" from this source and can be turned around and used more quickly. Similar systems exist in Wales and Scotland. NI has a much more integrated health and social care system than GB, and I would expect them to have better care home stats, (but I haven't looked at it).rick_chasey said:
I've read the rest but it is off the back of this which I just can't agree with.First.Aspect said:
Actually, in large part what they need for policy decisions are self-consistent data. It doesn't matter so much if its accurate.rick_chasey said:some stuff
CQC (and their Welsh and Scottish equivalents) can set a new question (or more) on their notifications from all care homes to pick up Covid-19 (they regularly do this in a reactive way) but there is still the problem of collating up to 15,000 (in England) data sets. And that's before you get to domiciliary care or supported living settings.
So while it's important to know the extent of spread in the care sector, this isn't going to be "noise free" for a while and is never (IMO) going to be prompt enough for day to day decisions. To make policy decisions on a daily changing crisis you use the most reliable data set, which is still diagnosed cases and deaths in hospitals.
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Yes I heard that too quite early on, then the experts seemed to change their minds.Pross said:
I thought early on they were suggesting that Ibuprofen shouldn't be used by anyone thinking they had the virus and that it was something to do with it being an anti-inflammatory. I may have imagined the second part though.focuszing723 said:Edinburgh University are trialling anti-inflammatory drug to see if they get any joy. It sounds like another good avenue of investigation.
I guess it might be to try and limit the immune systems overreaction, causing the blocking up of the lungs. mind you, why hasn't there been any significant developments in terms of helping out with the symptoms of colds or the flu?0 -
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.0 -
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.0 -
To give an example, my employer has a full time staff member filing reports to CQC and NHS England everyday, and chases practitioners for updates as a full time job. Our stats will get into the daily briefing, no problem. In other settings, such as an independent care home, there might be one part time admin worker who tries to get all the paperwork off once a month. In the second setting a demand for daily (or even weekly) reports would require senior clinicians to devote more time to admin than to actually monitoring infection control standards or training the new agency staff who are covering for the regular staff who are self isolating.kingstongraham said:
Only if it's the same resources, and not money. If it's money, then do both.mrfpb said:
By encouraging handwashing and universal use of PPE. Which relies on them having a good supply chain of PPE. Believe it or not care homes are set up to provide good care for frail people. It's the management of visitors, or high turnover of staff that present the real challenges.coopster_the_1st said:Some perspective on the challenges involved with the care/nursing home situation in the UK.
There are 480k people in the care/nursing home system across over 20k sites.
By their nature the system contains the most frail and vulnerable of society so assign your own survival rates from C19 to this but the death rate is a large number no matter what realistic figure you use.
Lots of people say it is impossible to create a sterile enviornment to play out the Premier League season with all the money available to make this happen so how can anyone seriously think we can maintain a safe environment across 20k care home sites. The only advantage they have is that they are widely spread across the country.
What isn't realistic at the moment is to expect the government to turnaround data from 20k sites within 24 hrs every day of the week, when the resources required could be better spent on maintaining infection control.
Where do you want the Matrons and registered managers to put their time? The main issues (I see) are staffing and PPE in care homes.1 -
But their rates are higher than ours. I can't be bothered registering and undoubtably ending up with a load of junk email coming my way. If they're asking why we have so many more deaths than Germany and some others then fair enough. If they're asking why we have more than France and Italy (and to a lesser extent Spain though I note them referring to the poor south and rich north) less so wouldn't you agree? Hence the reason I questioned the statement.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.0 -
Pross said:
But their rates are higher than ours. I can't be bothered registering and undoubtably ending up with a load of junk email coming my way. If they're asking why we have so many more deaths than Germany and some others then fair enough. If they're asking why we have more than France and Italy (and to a lesser extent Spain though I note them referring to the poor south and rich north) less so wouldn't you agree? Hence the reason I questioned the statement.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.Growth in the number of cases in Britain is now slowing, but as The Economist went to press, 12,868 people were confirmed to have died from covid-19 in hospital. Although Britain looks to be some way off the peak in France (see chart), France’s figures include deaths that occur in care homes—nearly half the total—while Britain’s do not.
A clearer picture of the pandemic requires evidence of its impacts on all deaths, including those as a result of measures introduced to stop its spread. More detailed, though lagging, data from the Office for National Statistics suggest that many more are dying both of other causes (as trips to hospitals are put off) and outside of hospitals (often in care homes). On the week ending April 3rd, there were 16,387 deaths, more than a third higher than normal at this time of year. Excess deaths in Britain are in the same range as those in France, Spain and Italy at a similar point.0 -
So there
A few questions / observations there:rick_chasey said:Pross said:
But their rates are higher than ours. I can't be bothered registering and undoubtably ending up with a load of junk email coming my way. If they're asking why we have so many more deaths than Germany and some others then fair enough. If they're asking why we have more than France and Italy (and to a lesser extent Spain though I note them referring to the poor south and rich north) less so wouldn't you agree? Hence the reason I questioned the statement.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.Growth in the number of cases in Britain is now slowing, but as The Economist went to press, 12,868 people were confirmed to have died from covid-19 in hospital. Although Britain looks to be some way off the peak in France (see chart), France’s figures include deaths that occur in care homes—nearly half the total—while Britain’s do not.
A clearer picture of the pandemic requires evidence of its impacts on all deaths, including those as a result of measures introduced to stop its spread. More detailed, though lagging, data from the Office for National Statistics suggest that many more are dying both of other causes (as trips to hospitals are put off) and outside of hospitals (often in care homes). On the week ending April 3rd, there were 16,387 deaths, more than a third higher than normal at this time of year. Excess deaths in Britain are in the same range as those in France, Spain and Italy at a similar point.
1. It says the ONS statistics show 'many more' are dying. That's pretty woolly and as discussed yesterday those stats seem to be showing the deaths outside of hospital are not in the same range as they are in the countries they mention.
2. They talk about deaths due to people putting off going to hospital that the ONS stats include and yet it doesn't say that the French numbers do and it also makes no mention of the other countries including care home deaths in their figures.
3. Even with the above they are saying the excess death rate is on a par with France, Italy and Spain which takes us back to my original point of 'compared to whom'. A more reasonable headline question would be 'Why does the UK have so many Covid-19 deaths than some other European countries?' which would be a perfectly reasonable question. The one they ask implies we are somewhere out on our own which we aren't.0 -
Just caught the end of a question on the press conference that sounded like we're reaching the 'what are we going to do about the Chinese for giving us their virus?' stage.0
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Death rate back up to 861 but I assume that's the long weekend spike people were expecting?0
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I didn’t write it, right?Pross said:So there
A few questions / observations there:rick_chasey said:Pross said:
But their rates are higher than ours. I can't be bothered registering and undoubtably ending up with a load of junk email coming my way. If they're asking why we have so many more deaths than Germany and some others then fair enough. If they're asking why we have more than France and Italy (and to a lesser extent Spain though I note them referring to the poor south and rich north) less so wouldn't you agree? Hence the reason I questioned the statement.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.Growth in the number of cases in Britain is now slowing, but as The Economist went to press, 12,868 people were confirmed to have died from covid-19 in hospital. Although Britain looks to be some way off the peak in France (see chart), France’s figures include deaths that occur in care homes—nearly half the total—while Britain’s do not.
A clearer picture of the pandemic requires evidence of its impacts on all deaths, including those as a result of measures introduced to stop its spread. More detailed, though lagging, data from the Office for National Statistics suggest that many more are dying both of other causes (as trips to hospitals are put off) and outside of hospitals (often in care homes). On the week ending April 3rd, there were 16,387 deaths, more than a third higher than normal at this time of year. Excess deaths in Britain are in the same range as those in France, Spain and Italy at a similar point.
1. It says the ONS statistics show 'many more' are dying. That's pretty woolly and as discussed yesterday those stats seem to be showing the deaths outside of hospital are not in the same range as they are in the countries they mention.
2. They talk about deaths due to people putting off going to hospital that the ONS stats include and yet it doesn't say that the French numbers do and it also makes no mention of the other countries including care home deaths in their figures.
3. Even with the above they are saying the excess death rate is on a par with France, Italy and Spain which takes us back to my original point of 'compared to whom'. A more reasonable headline question would be 'Why does the UK have so many Covid-19 deaths than some other European countries?' which would be a perfectly reasonable question. The one they ask implies we are somewhere out on our own which we aren't.
It just happens to have the same thought process and logic as me...
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Looks like another 3 weeks of empty roads, good weather and lovely cycling...
What a drag...
In other news, don't you find Easyjet approach to social distancing on a plane laughable?left the forum March 20230 -
I'm not saying you wrote it, I just felt the headline was poor and the section you posted doesn't seem the best piece of reasoned writing I've ever read. I don't expect much different from modern journalism though unfortunately.0
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It's not an attack on you. Those are reasonable points. For sure we can probably learn something by investigating why some countries seem to have done better than others, and we appear to have made some duff calls earlier on, but I am unconvinced that there is some marked difference in the governmental abilities across different countries like, say, Australia. Some of this is down to bad luck.rick_chasey said:
I didn’t write it, right?Pross said:So there
A few questions / observations there:rick_chasey said:Pross said:
But their rates are higher than ours. I can't be bothered registering and undoubtably ending up with a load of junk email coming my way. If they're asking why we have so many more deaths than Germany and some others then fair enough. If they're asking why we have more than France and Italy (and to a lesser extent Spain though I note them referring to the poor south and rich north) less so wouldn't you agree? Hence the reason I questioned the statement.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.Growth in the number of cases in Britain is now slowing, but as The Economist went to press, 12,868 people were confirmed to have died from covid-19 in hospital. Although Britain looks to be some way off the peak in France (see chart), France’s figures include deaths that occur in care homes—nearly half the total—while Britain’s do not.
A clearer picture of the pandemic requires evidence of its impacts on all deaths, including those as a result of measures introduced to stop its spread. More detailed, though lagging, data from the Office for National Statistics suggest that many more are dying both of other causes (as trips to hospitals are put off) and outside of hospitals (often in care homes). On the week ending April 3rd, there were 16,387 deaths, more than a third higher than normal at this time of year. Excess deaths in Britain are in the same range as those in France, Spain and Italy at a similar point.
1. It says the ONS statistics show 'many more' are dying. That's pretty woolly and as discussed yesterday those stats seem to be showing the deaths outside of hospital are not in the same range as they are in the countries they mention.
2. They talk about deaths due to people putting off going to hospital that the ONS stats include and yet it doesn't say that the French numbers do and it also makes no mention of the other countries including care home deaths in their figures.
3. Even with the above they are saying the excess death rate is on a par with France, Italy and Spain which takes us back to my original point of 'compared to whom'. A more reasonable headline question would be 'Why does the UK have so many Covid-19 deaths than some other European countries?' which would be a perfectly reasonable question. The one they ask implies we are somewhere out on our own which we aren't.
It just happens to have the same thought process and logic as me...1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
No it just disagrees with you.Pross said:I'm not saying you wrote it, I just felt the headline was poor and the section you posted doesn't seem the best piece of reasoned writing I've ever read. I don't expect much different from modern journalism though unfortunately.
It’s also in line with what the ex chief science officer was saying yesterday, and what the bbc economics editor is suggesting.0 -
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Pross said:
Just caught the end of a question on the press conference that sounded like we're reaching the 'what are we going to do about the Chinese for giving us their virus?' stage.
Not surprising. My concern is that we'll never get a full review of what actually happened, when and how, for fear of individual nations being offended (China being at the top of the list). But it isn't just China - for example there are criminal investigations taking place right now in Austria regarding how it is alleged a major C-19 outbreak in Ischgl was kept quiet to not damage the ski season. There's also serious questions to be asked of what the WHO knew and when, plus how they chose to act on it - one accusation is that Taiwan raised a concern to the WHO in December about a major outbreak in Wuhan but that their concerns were ignored.0 -
rick_chasey said:
I didn’t write it, right?Pross said:So there
A few questions / observations there:rick_chasey said:Pross said:
But their rates are higher than ours. I can't be bothered registering and undoubtably ending up with a load of junk email coming my way. If they're asking why we have so many more deaths than Germany and some others then fair enough. If they're asking why we have more than France and Italy (and to a lesser extent Spain though I note them referring to the poor south and rich north) less so wouldn't you agree? Hence the reason I questioned the statement.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.Growth in the number of cases in Britain is now slowing, but as The Economist went to press, 12,868 people were confirmed to have died from covid-19 in hospital. Although Britain looks to be some way off the peak in France (see chart), France’s figures include deaths that occur in care homes—nearly half the total—while Britain’s do not.
A clearer picture of the pandemic requires evidence of its impacts on all deaths, including those as a result of measures introduced to stop its spread. More detailed, though lagging, data from the Office for National Statistics suggest that many more are dying both of other causes (as trips to hospitals are put off) and outside of hospitals (often in care homes). On the week ending April 3rd, there were 16,387 deaths, more than a third higher than normal at this time of year. Excess deaths in Britain are in the same range as those in France, Spain and Italy at a similar point.
1. It says the ONS statistics show 'many more' are dying. That's pretty woolly and as discussed yesterday those stats seem to be showing the deaths outside of hospital are not in the same range as they are in the countries they mention.
2. They talk about deaths due to people putting off going to hospital that the ONS stats include and yet it doesn't say that the French numbers do and it also makes no mention of the other countries including care home deaths in their figures.
3. Even with the above they are saying the excess death rate is on a par with France, Italy and Spain which takes us back to my original point of 'compared to whom'. A more reasonable headline question would be 'Why does the UK have so many Covid-19 deaths than some other European countries?' which would be a perfectly reasonable question. The one they ask implies we are somewhere out on our own which we aren't.
It just happens to have the same thought process and logic as me...
why do we need to point score?
I didn't write it right, but if I did, that's exactly what I would've written ...0 -
Mass testing would certainly help but even antibody tests are running into problems as some people (especially those under 40) have produced no detectable antibodies. Although it's great for them as, most likely, their innate immune system took care of it, it's bad for society as a whole as we can't then know who has had it. Looking at the Diamond Princess case, my feeling is that some people may have natural immunity (in fact, maybe even most people)Stevo_666 said:
If that's right then yes it would make a massive difference to our approach. That is certainly one valid use of testing.nickice said:Latest research indicates that up to 80% of those infected are asymptomatic. https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375.
The scientist from Oxford is right that we probably shouldn't be in lockdown if this is the case.
It also reinforces the strangeness of this illness in that it can cause such a massively wide range of effect, from no symptoms at all up to fatal. There was a programme on the other night that was postulating it was down to differences at the cellular level in terms of the shape of the outer coating of our body cells affecting how easily the virus could 'hook up' to the cells and so gain entry to and infect the cell. More info needed here.
Regarding the virus affecting people in different ways, it's perfectly normal. Some people don't even notice they have the flu, whereas some young, healthy people die from it. My wife was convinced she'd never had chickenpox until she took an antibody test.0 -
I keep wondering what's going to happen to Sweden? Perhaps their population will just be careful and not take risks.0
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So if you agree with it why are you reluctant to respond to the issues I had with it? Explain to me why the bit you quoted isn't slightly jumbled and why it wouldn't be more balanced to ask why we have more deaths than some / many others rather than implying we are out on our own?rick_chasey said:
No it just disagrees with you.Pross said:I'm not saying you wrote it, I just felt the headline was poor and the section you posted doesn't seem the best piece of reasoned writing I've ever read. I don't expect much different from modern journalism though unfortunately.
It’s also in line with what the ex chief science officer was saying yesterday, and what the bbc economics editor is suggesting.
I'm keen to know why we are higher than Germany. Is it just the additional testing? From memory they locked down at a similar point and no more robustly than us. Is it partly down to movement of people both into and around the country? These are all things that can help to know but if the premise is arguing we are worse than France, Italy and Spain then it's plainly flawed and if it isn't arguing that the headline question should be reworded.0 -
Shutdown before tourist season and less skiers?rick_chasey said:Also does anyone have any explanation for why Greece is doing so well?
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
why do we need to point score?slowbike said:rick_chasey said:
I didn’t write it, right?Pross said:So there
A few questions / observations there:rick_chasey said:Pross said:
But their rates are higher than ours. I can't be bothered registering and undoubtably ending up with a load of junk email coming my way. If they're asking why we have so many more deaths than Germany and some others then fair enough. If they're asking why we have more than France and Italy (and to a lesser extent Spain though I note them referring to the poor south and rich north) less so wouldn't you agree? Hence the reason I questioned the statement.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. You can read it. It is free.Pross said:
So like France and Italy?rick_chasey said:
That is the headline of the article. You can also see it in the URL. It is in comparison to other comparably wealthy European countries (and indeed, all of Western Europe)Pross said:
I haven't looked to see if the bit in bold is selective quoting or how it is actually worded but the obvious question is 'so many in comparison to who?'rick_chasey said:https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/04/18/why-britain-has-so-many-covid-19-deaths
Freely available if you register.
"Why does Britain have so many Covid 19 deaths?"On most social, political and economic issues, Europe divides into north and south, and Britain sits comfortably among the more orderly, prosperous and efficient northern states. But on covid-19, that’s not how it looks. Britain appears closer to badly hit southern European countries. Indeed, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s scientific advisory council, has said that Britain is on track to be among the worst—if not the worst—affected country in Europe.
...Instead, the problems appear to have started earlier. The British government gave up quickly on the sort of test-and-isolate strategy common in countries that have kept deaths down. Its aim became simply to protect the vulnerable and the health service, accepting the virus would spread among the population, which would at least build herd immunity.
It goes on about testing, but apparently worrying about testing fanciful and pointless so I won't share that.Growth in the number of cases in Britain is now slowing, but as The Economist went to press, 12,868 people were confirmed to have died from covid-19 in hospital. Although Britain looks to be some way off the peak in France (see chart), France’s figures include deaths that occur in care homes—nearly half the total—while Britain’s do not.
A clearer picture of the pandemic requires evidence of its impacts on all deaths, including those as a result of measures introduced to stop its spread. More detailed, though lagging, data from the Office for National Statistics suggest that many more are dying both of other causes (as trips to hospitals are put off) and outside of hospitals (often in care homes). On the week ending April 3rd, there were 16,387 deaths, more than a third higher than normal at this time of year. Excess deaths in Britain are in the same range as those in France, Spain and Italy at a similar point.
1. It says the ONS statistics show 'many more' are dying. That's pretty woolly and as discussed yesterday those stats seem to be showing the deaths outside of hospital are not in the same range as they are in the countries they mention.
2. They talk about deaths due to people putting off going to hospital that the ONS stats include and yet it doesn't say that the French numbers do and it also makes no mention of the other countries including care home deaths in their figures.
3. Even with the above they are saying the excess death rate is on a par with France, Italy and Spain which takes us back to my original point of 'compared to whom'. A more reasonable headline question would be 'Why does the UK have so many Covid-19 deaths than some other European countries?' which would be a perfectly reasonable question. The one they ask implies we are somewhere out on our own which we aren't.
It just happens to have the same thought process and logic as me...
I didn't write it right, but if I did, that's exactly what I would've written ...
Sometimes I like a reminder that my apparent ‘extreme’ position on here, isn’t really.
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The anecdotal evidence from conversations with people in Sweden is that it is definitely not business as usual, and the whole social distancing is happening anyway.focuszing723 said:I keep wondering what's going to happen to Sweden? Perhaps their population will just be careful and not take risks.
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That makes sense.kingstongraham said:
The anecdotal evidence from conversations with people in Sweden is that it is definitely not business as usual, and the whole social distancing is happening anyway.focuszing723 said:I keep wondering what's going to happen to Sweden? Perhaps their population will just be careful and not take risks.
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It is doing worse then its neighbours howeverfocuszing723 said:
That makes sense.kingstongraham said:
The anecdotal evidence from conversations with people in Sweden is that it is definitely not business as usual, and the whole social distancing is happening anyway.focuszing723 said:I keep wondering what's going to happen to Sweden? Perhaps their population will just be careful and not take risks.
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