LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
Comments
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Best start buying futures in green paint.surrey_commuter said:According to The Times Comrade Boris is going to make the Uk a “green shipbuilding superpower”
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Calmac have a couple of ships awaiting completion with green tech. They are maybe not the benchmark projects to follow being massively overbudget, delayed and plagued by technical problems.surrey_commuter said:According to The Times Comrade Boris is going to make the Uk a “green shipbuilding superpower”
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Only if green means more efficient design but still using diesel engines.surrey_commuter said:According to The Times Comrade Boris is going to make the Uk a “green shipbuilding superpower”
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
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Used car prices went up.0
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Are you dismissing the news based on used cars?kingstongraham said:Used car prices went up.
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Yeah, I think they're making a huge leap from her comment there. She's responding to a question (something politicians are always getting accused of avoiding). It is also interesting how the Government are getting accused of introducing legislation to prevent the freedom to protest and on the basis of the same they are also being criticised for legislation allowing people to speak freely on any legal subject no matter how reprehensible it is to most of us. I'm sure that someone like David Irving would get a serious grilling from students if he turned up for a debate.kingstongraham said:
She does not defend holocaust deniers for their views - but it would have been more interesting if he had asked about other repugnant but not illegal views as well.rick_chasey said:On the universities, Evan Davis manages to manoeuvre the Universities minister into defending Holocaust deniers which is obviously not a good look.
I suspect there will need to be some careful drafting of this free speech bill else it is used as cover for all manner of extremist behaviour.
Where the interview was good was in trying to establish why she thought it would work to help Brexit supporting students to be less shy with their views among their peers (one of the examples she gave), when it clearly won't.
On the basis that holocaust denial is seen as such a bad thing should we instead be looking at banning it in the UK? I suspect if we did many of the same people would be on the freedom of speech bandwagon opposing it.0 -
Given ships have been evolved over decades to the current state of slick manufacture mainly in the far east who is thinking that UK designers will somehow come up with better designs. I think we are at the polishing stage globally for shipping.pblakeney said:
Only if green means more efficient design but still using diesel engines.surrey_commuter said:According to The Times Comrade Boris is going to make the Uk a “green shipbuilding superpower”
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but the old process was a market lead economy whereby we made things that we were good at and could sell for a profit.john80 said:
Given ships have been evolved over decades to the current state of slick manufacture mainly in the far east who is thinking that UK designers will somehow come up with better designs. I think we are at the polishing stage globally for shipping.pblakeney said:
Only if green means more efficient design but still using diesel engines.surrey_commuter said:According to The Times Comrade Boris is going to make the Uk a “green shipbuilding superpower”
In the new economic system Boris/Carrie decides what we should produce, where and in what numbers. It has nothing to do with design, quality of production, cost of production or any other traditional factors. There is only one factor to consider and that is whether Boris thinks it is a good idea. He will fund it by shaking the magic money tree and/or taxing you more because he can make better decisions than you on how you should spend your money.0 -
Not relevant but an excuse to post this excellent chart.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
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Seriously, American used car prices collapsed a year ago when people stopped moving, and have now more than recovered because people want to get back to work with less reliance on public transport. I think I read that increase alone accounts for 0.7% of the 4.2% annual inflation. April 2020 was not normal.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhkFbgxQuXA
If you have 20 minutes, here's the FT taking you through the Greensill Capital scandal.0 -
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.0 -
The boy who cried wolf was eventually eaten by a wolf.rick_chasey said:
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.1 -
Sure. Eventually they will be right. But I don't think any economic data coming out of the last 18 months makes much sense given lockdown etc.TheBigBean said:
The boy who cried wolf was eventually eaten by a wolf.rick_chasey said:
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.0 -
The massive increase in money supply is a fact. That people are going to go a little bit wild after 18 months of a pandemic is highly likely. I can't see how that won't lead to inflation. The only question is whether that inflation can be controlled, or whether it will only be short-term.rick_chasey said:
Sure. Eventually they will be right. But I don't think any economic data coming out of the last 18 months makes much sense given lockdown etc.TheBigBean said:
The boy who cried wolf was eventually eaten by a wolf.rick_chasey said:
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.
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So why hasn't Japan had a lot of inflation?TheBigBean said:
The massive increase in money supply is a fact. That people are going to go a little bit wild after 18 months of a pandemic is highly likely. I can't see how that won't lead to inflation. The only question is whether that inflation can be controlled, or whether it will only be short-term.rick_chasey said:
Sure. Eventually they will be right. But I don't think any economic data coming out of the last 18 months makes much sense given lockdown etc.TheBigBean said:
The boy who cried wolf was eventually eaten by a wolf.rick_chasey said:
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.0 -
Japan didn't have 18 months of pent up demand suddenly kick when the QE was massively increased. To put it in perspective, the BoE has bought more assets (£450bn) in 2020 than it did in response to the previous financial crisis and Brexit (£445bn).rick_chasey said:
So why hasn't Japan had a lot of inflation?TheBigBean said:
The massive increase in money supply is a fact. That people are going to go a little bit wild after 18 months of a pandemic is highly likely. I can't see how that won't lead to inflation. The only question is whether that inflation can be controlled, or whether it will only be short-term.rick_chasey said:
Sure. Eventually they will be right. But I don't think any economic data coming out of the last 18 months makes much sense given lockdown etc.TheBigBean said:
The boy who cried wolf was eventually eaten by a wolf.rick_chasey said:
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.0 -
Are you familiar with how large the QE was in Japan?TheBigBean said:
Japan didn't have 18 months of pent up demand suddenly kick when the QE was massively increased. To put it in perspective, the BoE has bought more assets (£450bn) in 2020 than it did in response to the previous financial crisis and Brexit (£445bn).rick_chasey said:
So why hasn't Japan had a lot of inflation?TheBigBean said:
The massive increase in money supply is a fact. That people are going to go a little bit wild after 18 months of a pandemic is highly likely. I can't see how that won't lead to inflation. The only question is whether that inflation can be controlled, or whether it will only be short-term.rick_chasey said:
Sure. Eventually they will be right. But I don't think any economic data coming out of the last 18 months makes much sense given lockdown etc.TheBigBean said:
The boy who cried wolf was eventually eaten by a wolf.rick_chasey said:
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.
I don't know may people who are expecting a pay rise this year, unless you do?
There are definitely shortages for things like cars and petrol, especially in the states, but I think they are side effects of the global supply chain being disrupted, so I don't think they will hang around.
Happy to bet you the next drink we get that inflation won't be high for any period longer than 6 months and won't feed into broad base wage increases0 -
so if inflation accelerates is that great news because it will deflate the debt or is it bad news because it will push rates higher?
If the latter presumambly the BofE would just up it's purchases to keep the price down? for those who believe in QE is there a finite point or can they keep going?0 -
So the analysis out of Japan suggests the effect of QE is actually *reduced* the more you do it, rather than the other way around.surrey_commuter said:so if inflation accelerates is that great news because it will deflate the debt or is it bad news because it will push rates higher?
If the latter presumambly the BofE would just up it's purchases to keep the price down? for those who believe in QE is there a finite point or can they keep going?
There is an argument that the very low rate environment actually depresses inflation as it disincentivises banks to lend which is often the largest way of creating money, and so returning to a higher interest rate model would help - though the problem is that getting there obviously puts the brakes on somewhat and when things are anaemic anyway ,that's not ideal.
The argument that because there is lots of QE = lots of inflation does not stand up to what has happened in nations where there has been loads of QE.0 -
If you're all expecting pay rises to account for this bounce in prices do let me know, but I think we're in a different economic environment without the strength of unions and labour etc to really push through inflation.
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I would be wary of placing too much emphasis on Japan as a lot of people put their problems down to an insular economy being hit by a stable and now falling population with the associated deographic changes associated with thatrick_chasey said:
So the analysis out of Japan suggests the effect of QE is actually *reduced* the more you do it, rather than the other way around.surrey_commuter said:so if inflation accelerates is that great news because it will deflate the debt or is it bad news because it will push rates higher?
If the latter presumambly the BofE would just up it's purchases to keep the price down? for those who believe in QE is there a finite point or can they keep going?
There is an argument that the very low rate environment actually depresses inflation as it disincentivises banks to lend which is often the largest way of creating money, and so returning to a higher interest rate model would help - though the problem is that getting there obviously puts the brakes on somewhat and when things are anaemic anyway ,that's not ideal.
The argument that because there is lots of QE = lots of inflation does not stand up to what has happened in nations where there has been loads of QE.
of course a combination of Brexit/Covid may have pushed the fast forward button for a UK population decline and sudden demographic change.0 -
Find me a country with a lot of QE and a lot of inflation and I'd be more persuaded that inflation is an issue.surrey_commuter said:
I would be wary of placing too much emphasis on Japan as a lot of people put their problems down to an insular economy being hit by a stable and now falling population with the associated deographic changes associated with thatrick_chasey said:
So the analysis out of Japan suggests the effect of QE is actually *reduced* the more you do it, rather than the other way around.surrey_commuter said:so if inflation accelerates is that great news because it will deflate the debt or is it bad news because it will push rates higher?
If the latter presumambly the BofE would just up it's purchases to keep the price down? for those who believe in QE is there a finite point or can they keep going?
There is an argument that the very low rate environment actually depresses inflation as it disincentivises banks to lend which is often the largest way of creating money, and so returning to a higher interest rate model would help - though the problem is that getting there obviously puts the brakes on somewhat and when things are anaemic anyway ,that's not ideal.
The argument that because there is lots of QE = lots of inflation does not stand up to what has happened in nations where there has been loads of QE.
of course a combination of Brexit/Covid may have pushed the fast forward button for a UK population decline and sudden demographic change.
Like I said, no-one is expecting significant wage increased, nor are many people i know in a position to effectively bargain for material wage increases if prices are increasing too.0 -
Not this year. Pay freeze.rick_chasey said:If you're all expecting pay rises to account for this bounce in prices do let me know, but I think we're in a different economic environment without the strength of unions and labour etc to really push through inflation.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/opinion/cryptocurrency-inflation.html?smid=tw-share
Here's Krugman on the issue.0 -
Yes, Japan had lots of QE. Yes, people are expecting pay rises. No to a poorly defined bet.rick_chasey said:
Are you familiar with how large the QE was in Japan?TheBigBean said:
Japan didn't have 18 months of pent up demand suddenly kick when the QE was massively increased. To put it in perspective, the BoE has bought more assets (£450bn) in 2020 than it did in response to the previous financial crisis and Brexit (£445bn).rick_chasey said:
So why hasn't Japan had a lot of inflation?TheBigBean said:
The massive increase in money supply is a fact. That people are going to go a little bit wild after 18 months of a pandemic is highly likely. I can't see how that won't lead to inflation. The only question is whether that inflation can be controlled, or whether it will only be short-term.rick_chasey said:
Sure. Eventually they will be right. But I don't think any economic data coming out of the last 18 months makes much sense given lockdown etc.TheBigBean said:
The boy who cried wolf was eventually eaten by a wolf.rick_chasey said:
Big global sell-off this morning in most of the major commodities.TheBigBean said:Can't remember which thread it was people were arguing about fiscal and monetary policy. Think it was most of them. Anyway, from the FT today. Moving closer to melt-up.
US inflation rose 4.2 per cent in April over its level a year ago, a bigger jump than economists had expected, fuelling concerns that the world’s largest economy is overheating.
The higher inflation reading reflects a combination of hefty fiscal support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity picks up following the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
US equities dropped after the inflation report, with the S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, its biggest one-day drop since February. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, whose companies are particularly sensitive to higher inflation and interest rates, lost about 2.7 per cent.
The problem with inflation predictions is they have been massively over-egged for a decade so people are weary of them.
If Japan is just 10 years ahead of the rest of the west, inflation isn't returning any time soon.
I don't know may people who are expecting a pay rise this year, unless you do?
There are definitely shortages for things like cars and petrol, especially in the states, but I think they are side effects of the global supply chain being disrupted, so I don't think they will hang around.
Happy to bet you the next drink we get that inflation won't be high for any period longer than 6 months and won't feed into broad base wage increases
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Will you spend more this year than last?kingstongraham said:
Not this year. Pay freeze.rick_chasey said:If you're all expecting pay rises to account for this bounce in prices do let me know, but I think we're in a different economic environment without the strength of unions and labour etc to really push through inflation.
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Isn't that just demand returning to pre corona levels? That does not inflation make.TheBigBean said:
Will you spend more this year than last?kingstongraham said:
Not this year. Pay freeze.rick_chasey said:If you're all expecting pay rises to account for this bounce in prices do let me know, but I think we're in a different economic environment without the strength of unions and labour etc to really push through inflation.
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I think it will potentially be a bit higher. Supply problems, staff shortages etc. will then increase costs and inflation. That could just be a short term blip though.rick_chasey said:
Isn't that just demand returning to pre corona levels? That does not inflation make.TheBigBean said:
Will you spend more this year than last?kingstongraham said:
Not this year. Pay freeze.rick_chasey said:If you're all expecting pay rises to account for this bounce in prices do let me know, but I think we're in a different economic environment without the strength of unions and labour etc to really push through inflation.
The BoE has indicated an end to QE where in contrast the Fed hasn't. When the Fed announced it wasn't considering any tapering, the dollar lost value against the pound. A weaker currency increases costs and results in more inflation. Of course, if every central bank is playing the same game, it doesn't, but in this case the Fed is doing more.
Covid has had a big impact. At the start of the year, some commentators were still looking at the melt-down case where the economy crashes, but it is important to also consider the melt-up case where inflation is very high and the economy crashes. Dismissing it as a phantom wolf isn't sensible.0
