Vuelta 2018, Stage 15: Ribera de Arriba > Lagos de Covadonga. Centenarios - 178,2 km *Spoilers*

richard_t._biscuit

RichN95 wrote:

Richard T. Biscuit wrote:

People tend to read a lot into a GC rider's attitude or mentality by virtue of them not riding in a swashbuckling and attacking style. I think most of the time it boils down to them not having the legs, which they can't really do much about. People should think about what they post while they're pushing on a climb themselves and for all the will to endure pain in the world their legs won't allow them to push on any quicker.

The problem though is that Quintana is generally portrayed as a swashbuckling attacking rider - an antidote to the boring Froome - despite any supporting evidence. This is largely down to him being Colombian

People seem to happy to leap into this false narrative with both feet and make ridiculously over the top negative comments about him when he inevitably doesn't play into it. I think that is at least part of the problem.

bobmcstuff wrote:

...
Quintana is not and has never been an explosive rider. If he waits till the line he is always going to lose seconds, like he did today.
...

He took seconds off Yates and the rest in the last few hundred meters literally the day before yesterday...

ivor_pye

What is the point of Steve Cummings?

larkim

When was the last time that Quintana made an effective attack 3 or 4km from the top and made it stick? I do worry for him that he has got into the habit of attacking, getting 20m and then not having the commitment to keep it away. Of course, his reputation as one of the best GC climbers means often the bunch respond to him in way that they might not to Pinot etc, but it does appear from my armchair that more often than not he makes a fairly half-hearted attack and then lacks any interest in really digging in.

Easy to be critical from the comfort of my front room though.

andyp

larkim wrote:

When was the last time that Quintana made an effective attack 3 or 4km from the top and made it stick?

Stage 17 of this year's Tour de France, although strictly speaking he attacked with about 9 kms to go if memory serves.

But my memory seems to be a lot better than most on here.

philbar72

he often attacks only when he knows he hasn't got competition or does have a competitive advantage. in this race he appears to have neither, which means he doesn't take as many risks as he perhaps could. makes for him to appear to be boring, and almost riding within himself.

larkim

andyp wrote:

larkim wrote:

When was the last time that Quintana made an effective attack 3 or 4km from the top and made it stick?

Stage 17 of this year's Tour de France, although strictly speaking he attacked with about 9 kms to go if memory serves.

But my memory seems to be a lot better than most on here.

Fair point. I should have caveated that with "when he had a realistic chance of challenging for the GC". He was over 4 minutes down at that stage. Though I suppose if I was being charitable, he made that attempt when there was at least a potential from a stellar ride to earn perhaps a couple of minutes on his rivals so I suppose that does fit the bill better than I was giving him credit for.

amrushton

But when he first appeared in europe, he was going to win every GT for the next few years. he has won the Giro and Vuelta but he has lived down to expectations as well. He hasn't won a TdF, and he seems unable to ride away from his rivals as he first did. Valverde and Landa would imo make a more fearsome combination but I couldn't understand why Quintana was happy to see Lopez go up the road.

DeadCalm

amrushton wrote:

But when he first appeared in europe, he was going to win every GT for the next few years. he has won the Giro and Vuelta but he has lived down to expectations as well. He hasn't won a TdF, and he seems unable to ride away from his rivals as he first did. Valverde and Landa would imo make a more fearsome combination but I couldn't understand why Quintana was happy to see Lopez go up the road.

I don't think he was happy to see Lopez go up the road but I think he was suggesting (not unreasonably) that as Yates was in red, he should do the work to bring back Lopez.

To me, Quintana looks, at best, the third strongest climber in the race and is racing accordingly. He's also not helped by the fact that both Yates and particularly Lopez seem to consider him to be the danger man and have marked him tightly.

pinno

Quintana has not ridden tactically well. Even if he dragged Yates with him on an attack, at least that would probably leave him and Yates in contention for the overall given a gap to the rest.
That would put pressure on Yates. Because there are a few in contention, they are effectively cancelling each other out - I mean, look at Astana on the front for a long time yesterday. All that did was take the pressure of Mitchelton Scott.
If something was to happen to Yates right now, Quintana would still be under pressure from other protagonists.
Quintana will have to/should have risked going into the red at some point to assert himself. The Vuelta will not land in his lap by default.
It would take a very bold DS to tell the team to swap allegiances from Quintana to Valverde but that is what needs to happen. I feel for Valverde, he has been stellar in a way no rider at MS has replicated.
If Quintana hasn't got the legs or the head or both, then there is no point others burying themselves for him. He would make a super super domestique to Valverde.

The Nodder

I saw it differently – Quintana is marking Yates. He out-bluffed Yates. He perceives Yates to be his only rival for the win and so will risk others gaining time, like a poor man’s version of Schleck and Contador track standing at the Tour. Quintana might be boring for spectators but it was the right tactic for him.
Of course, there is a limit to what tactics can do on the final climb against a rider who is looking as strong as Yates.

supermurph09

Pinno wrote:

Quintana has not ridden tactically well. Even if he dragged Yates with him on an attack, at least that would probably leave him and Yates in contention for the overall given a gap to the rest.
That would put pressure on Yates. Because there are a few in contention, they are effectively cancelling each other out - I mean, look at Astana on the front for a long time yesterday. All that did was take the pressure of Mitchelton Scott.
If something was to happen to Yates right now, Quintana would still be under pressure from other protagonists.
Quintana will have to/should have risked going into the red at some point to assert himself. The Vuelta will not land in his lap by default.
It would take a very bold DS to tell the team to swap allegiances from Quintana to Valverde but that is what needs to happen. I feel for Valverde, he has been stellar in a way no rider at MS has replicated.
If Quintana hasn't got the legs or the head or both, then there is no point others burying themselves for him. He would make a super super domestique to Valverde.

Have to agree with everything above, that's pretty much my exact thinking too. Valverde was able to recover, work, recover and then drag himself to the line in pretty good shape. If I was Valverde I'd be radioing back to the car saying if Quintana waves me to help him again I'm going to throw him off the mountain. If Valverde fades now I think it's because of the extra work he's had to do in service of NQ not because we now enter the business end of a grand tour.

I'm pretty sure Yates would be drawn into mistakes if it were Valverde that was the protected rider and he was able to have a bit more left to do his own attacking rather than pulling back Yates. I like the way Yates is riding, I like his attitude, hopefully his team can provide the help he needs.

kingstongraham

When Valverde and Quintana have been in the same GT, the closest Valverde has got since 2012 was over 4 minutes back on Quintana.

If Valverde falls back a bit in the final week, it will just be normal. He doesn't bury himself for anyone, just ends up losing a bit of time, ending up doing OK.

bobmcstuff

DeadCalm wrote:

amrushton wrote:

But when he first appeared in europe, he was going to win every GT for the next few years. he has won the Giro and Vuelta but he has lived down to expectations as well. He hasn't won a TdF, and he seems unable to ride away from his rivals as he first did. Valverde and Landa would imo make a more fearsome combination but I couldn't understand why Quintana was happy to see Lopez go up the road.

I don't think he was happy to see Lopez go up the road but I think he was suggesting (not unreasonably) that as Yates was in red, he should do the work to bring back Lopez.

To me, Quintana looks, at best, the third strongest climber in the race and is racing accordingly. He's also not helped by the fact that both Yates and particularly Lopez seem to consider him to be the danger man and have marked him tightly.

I think Yates argument would be that Quintana was watching his podium place ride off up the road so should have chased. Lopez was less of a threat to Yates. But Quintana presumably has no interest in 2nd or 3rd so it's all or nothing.

Although I did think it was funny that when he was up the road with Lopez the day before he refused to work with him but then yesterday he was happy to watch him go.

It's probably accurate that he's the 3rd best climber at the moment - but he doesn't seem to have ridden very tactically which I think has made him look worse.

blazing_saddles

KingstonGraham wrote:

When Valverde and Quintana have been in the same GT, the closest Valverde has got since 2012 was over 4 minutes back on Quintana.

If Valverde falls back a bit in the final week, it will just be normal. He doesn't bury himself for anyone, just ends up losing a bit of time, ending up doing OK.

The trouble is, before that can happen, Valverde may well be be in the leader's jersey. He is usually very solid in Vuelta time trials and Yates's lead is only twenty-six seconds.
If he also then leads Quintana by in excess of a minute, then wouldn't Movistar be faced with exactly the same scenario as Sky at the Tour?
After all, most people assumed that Geraint would fall back a bit in the final week, too.....

Mad_Malx

Isn't the most difficult bit for Valverde past now?

I’m also not really seeing much of Valverde riding as quitano’s dom. I suspect he’s thinking he can do this.

larkim

There's still 3 (?) MTFs left, so whatever Valverde gains on NQ / SY on the TT you'd still expect him to lose a similar amount to either / both of those two assuming they are well and not exhausted.

Interesting bit will be to see SY come out of the ITT tomorrow after the way he responded in the Giro. He's going into it knowing he doesn't have to try to keep pace with a TT expert like Dumoulin, so you'd hope he's got a sensible plan for how deep he'll go and how he'll recover in advance of the Wednesday stage. Thursday is flat, but Friday and Saturday aren't so nowhere to hide if anyone's legs can't make it through the third week.

RichN95.

I think that Valverde can win this. I think he thinks that too.

kingstongraham

Mad_Malx wrote:

Isn't the most difficult bit for Valverde past now?

I’m also not really seeing much of Valverde riding as quitano’s dom. I suspect he’s thinking he can do this.

I thought yesterday wouldn't suit him - he did really well. He definitely thinks he can win it. The really long climb at the end of stage 19 and the multiple long climbs of stage 20 aren't his style - but only if someone else goes for it.

RichN95.

Ivor Pye wrote:

What is the point of Steve Cummings?

Hia bottom gets an awful lot of TV time. It's a prime advertising spot.

bobmcstuff

larkim wrote:

Interesting bit will be to see SY come out of the ITT tomorrow after the way he responded in the Giro. He's going into it knowing he doesn't have to try to keep pace with a TT expert like Dumoulin, so you'd hope he's got a sensible plan for how deep he'll go and how he'll recover in advance of the Wednesday stage. Thursday is flat, but Friday and Saturday aren't so nowhere to hide if anyone's legs can't make it through the third week.

He also hasn't been riding like an absolute lunatic in the first 2 weeks like he did in the Giro...

Pross

Ivor Pye wrote:

What is the point of Steve Cummings?

He's won three GT stages, that's not a bad record. He doesn't waste energy on days where he won't win but when he does get into a break it is normally a good one. As Rich points out, albeit tongue in cheek, he's getting more exposure for his sponsors sitting on the back of a bunch than he would by doing nothing in the middle of it. At 37, as far as journeymen pros go I'd say he's had a good career.

larkim

bobmcstuff wrote:

larkim wrote:

Interesting bit will be to see SY come out of the ITT tomorrow after the way he responded in the Giro. He's going into it knowing he doesn't have to try to keep pace with a TT expert like Dumoulin, so you'd hope he's got a sensible plan for how deep he'll go and how he'll recover in advance of the Wednesday stage. Thursday is flat, but Friday and Saturday aren't so nowhere to hide if anyone's legs can't make it through the third week.

He also hasn't been riding like an absolute lunatic in the first 2 weeks like he did in the Giro...

Indeed he hasn't. He's looked in the interviews (even the ones where he was frustrated by having red or frustrated by holding back) to be very thoughtful and planned this time around, as if he's someone who as 100% learned the lesson of what went wrong earlier in the year.

If he's got real fire in his belly as an ambitious rider, you can bet he went away from the Giro determined to put whatever he could right for next time around. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he just rode away from the field on the penultimate day because he's held so much back. But I wouldn't want to curse him!

pinno

Historically Yates has faded in the last week but there's no one around him who could do an 80km solo effort in this Vuelta.
I think the ITT will be fine for him. I doubt Quintana can gain time on Yates. If he looses more than 30 seconds to Yates, it will hand SY huge breathing space. Not quite enough for a puncture or an off but it would put pressure on Quintana.
Where SY is going to capitalise or fail will be the fact that there are 4 teams represented in the top 6 - QS, Movistar, Lotto NLJ and Astana (5 if you discount Pinot. Pinot is not to be discounted though, he'll go all out for a high podium finish).
All those teams are going to be hell bent on propelling their main man forward. IMHO, It's likely, they will do what they did yesterday and cancel each other out but other teams will benefit from this in the same way MiSc and SY are.
Then, SY will have to be clever about who's wheels to follow when the sh1t hits the fan at the business end of the stages to come.

Would Valverde go against team orders? Would there be sufficient loyalty from at least 2 other riders if he did? The latter question is key to the former.
I think the ITT is critical to how Valverde might play this one out. At his age, a possible Vuelta win would surely be very tempting.
What's the betting that Valverde puts 30 seconds into Quintana? Quite high I suspect and then perhaps team hierarchy would change by design.

davidof

Pinno wrote:

The Vuelta will not land in his lap by default.

Maybe he's hoping for a snow storm that stops the race behind him so he can ride to victory?

DeadCalm

Pinno wrote:

Would Valverde go against team orders?

Don't see Valverde being told to do anything other than keep himself in contention. A Valverde win in the Vuelta would be the perfect result for Movistar surely?

andyp

RichN95 wrote:

I think that Valverde can win this. I think he thinks that too.

Would he trade another Vuelta win for a final chance at the world title? Because that's the trade-off he needs to consider.

blazing_saddles

andyp wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

I think that Valverde can win this. I think he thinks that too.

Would he trade another Vuelta win for a final chance at the world title? Because that's the trade-off he needs to consider.

Why does it necessarily have to be a trade off?
It's not as if he's been taking things easy at this Vuelta or that he struggles to hold top form.
If things look to be going his way, I'd say take bird in hand, since regardless of form, anything can happen at a World championships.

andyp

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Why does it necessarily have to be a trade off?
It's not as if he's been taking things easy at this Vuelta or that he struggles to hold top form.
If things look to be going his way, I'd say take bird in hand, since regardless of form, anything can happen at a World championships.

Recent history suggests that the best way to prepare for the Worlds is to drop out during the final week of the Vuelta, to give your body time to absorb the load and recover. Going really deep on Friday and Saturday will compromise that.

ocdupalais

andyp wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Why does it necessarily have to be a trade off?
It's not as if he's been taking things easy at this Vuelta or that he struggles to hold top form.
If things look to be going his way, I'd say take bird in hand, since regardless of form, anything can happen at a World championships.

Recent history suggests that the best way to prepare for the Worlds is to drop out during the final week of the Vuelta, to give your body time to absorb the load and recover. Going really deep on Friday and Saturday will compromise that.

That probably doesn’t apply to Valverde on account of him being Valverde.

andyp

He won't win either the Vuelta or the Worlds anyway, so it's a moot point.