Rest day discussion & observations

rick_chasey
rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
edited May 2018 in Pro race
1) we discussed whether the prologue was a good indicator of form in the race later or not. How has that played out? I think fairly accurate.

2) which riders do better or worse after rest days?

3) I mentioned that there is some modern thinking around coming into a race undercooked not being that advantageous; you don’t recover as quickly from efforts etc. Is that what happened with Froome yday?

4) with a lot of climbing still to go if Tom even gets 3 mins tomorrow will it be enough? I think not.
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Comments

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,642
    1) Dumoulin won the proglogue, but doesn't seem to be in tip top form, so I would say it is a poor indicator
    3) It is only going to be advantageous if trying to do the double i.e. it is advantageous in the second race not the first. This year's race has been hard and I suspect Froome is suffering due to his undercookedness.
    4) I don't think Dumoulin will get more than 2 mins and I think Yates will win easily, but I've held that view for a while.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    Wasn’t TD always favourite for the TT? And he’s 2nd overall.

    Yates did unusually well. As did Pozzovivo.
    _
  • The_Boy
    The_Boy Posts: 3,099
    Pinot was garbage after both rest days last year, fwiw.
    Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,158
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Wasn’t TD always favourite for the TT? And he’s 2nd overall.

    Yates did unusually well. As did Pozzovivo.
    Lopez and Carapaz were both outside the top 60
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,196
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Wasn’t TD always favourite for the TT? And he’s 2nd overall.

    Yates did unusually well. As did Pozzovivo.

    Looking back, Yates' performance was a bit of a sign of what was to come.

    For all that people complain about TTs in GTs, this upcoming TT is really making the race (or the threat of it is). Yates would not have needed to ride so aggressively had there been no TT.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    So was Froome’s Prologue performance.
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    The_Boy wrote:
    Pinot was garbage after both rest days last year, fwiw.

    Excellent. This is the kind of intel ya need
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    RichN95 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Wasn’t TD always favourite for the TT? And he’s 2nd overall.

    Yates did unusually well. As did Pozzovivo.
    Lopez and Carapaz were both outside the top 60

    Was that different to expectations?

    And tbh, I don’t remotely see them as contenders anyway.
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,642
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    RichN95 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Wasn’t TD always favourite for the TT? And he’s 2nd overall.

    Yates did unusually well. As did Pozzovivo.
    Lopez and Carapaz were both outside the top 60

    Was that different to expectations?

    And tbh, I don’t remotely see them as contenders anyway.

    Lopez was my PTP pick.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    Hhaha he’s miles behind!
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,642
    He hasn't quite got the climbing legs he had at the Vuelta last year.
  • poweredbyidris
    poweredbyidris Posts: 848
    Whilst I'm all for fans encroaching onto the road on climbs to cheer on the riders (runners can do one, obvs), I did enjoy the final section on the Zoncolan with the police/volunteers keeping the crowd back so you could actually see what was going on, and allowed the tv bikes room to get better pictures.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,196
    TheBigBean wrote:
    4) I don't think Dumoulin will get more than 2 mins and I think Yates will win easily, but I've held that view for a while.

    Just listening to Friebe on the cycling podcast, it's 8-0 to Dumoulin vs Yates in TTs (no surprise there). Apparently par is 3s per km, and by my maths that's 103s or 1 minute 42 seconds i.e., not enough.

    With the current time gaps, Dumoulin needs to take more than 3.8s/km just to take pink. For comparison:

    3s/km: Yates retains lead by 28.4s
    3.5s/km: Yates retains lead by 11.3s
    4s/km: Yates concedes lead by 5.8s
    4.5s/km: Yates concedes lead by 22.9s
    5s/km: Yates concedes lead by 40s

    So it will need to be a big result from Dumoulin to even stand a chance of taking the jersey, and with Yates' current form even if Dumoulin does manage to pull out a big ride it might not be enough. The big unknown is whether Yates can continue to hold such good form and to a lesser extent whether Dumoulin recovers a bit on the rest day.

    In any case I think it's inconceivable that Dumoulin could possibly take as much as 5s/km (mechanicals/crashes notwithstanding), so whatever happens it should be close for the final week.
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    I put £5 on Froome to win the Giro yesterday morning. Seemed like a decent outside bet after his Zoncolan performance. Pretty sure I won't see that fiver again! :D

    The other thing in the coming week is can Yates keep it up? I think he probably will, but I wouldn't be that surprised if he suddenly blew up or started slowly losing time later in the week.

    If Yates keeps the jersey after the TT, how will that affect him psychologically? He's been in all out attack mode for the whole race to try and gain enough time on Dumoulin. If he's still in the jersey on Wednesday morning I'm sure it would be tempting to switch to riding the rest of the race defensively. I'm just wondering if he might struggle slightly with the change in focus/approach.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,196
    Graeme_S wrote:

    If Yates keeps the jersey after the TT, how will that affect him psychologically? He's been in all out attack mode for the whole race to try and gain enough time on Dumoulin. If he's still in the jersey on Wednesday morning I'm sure it would be tempting to switch to riding the rest of the race defensively. I'm just wondering if he might struggle slightly with the change in focus/approach.

    Just ride on Dumoulin's wheel for the rest of the week...

    I'd rather he didn't, but unless someone else looks like coming close it must be the best option.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,329
    I'm really not sure whether the undercooked thing has that much to do with it. I think there's an element that is down to being in an unusual position - almost all Sky's big wins have been from a position of real dominance. They've ridden at the front of the peloton with the leader's jersey (or at worst a podium spot with a hugely bankable TT to come) for huge portions of each of the GTs. They control the races, they're hugely efficient and well drilled in it. I think there's an argument to be made that they aren't entirely sure of how to ride this now with Froome having dropped so much time so early. At least some of Froome's gaps look like they've been caused by positioning, and possibly by not having enough teammates around him. Yesterday it was noticeable that he had Henao with him when chasing back, but that Poels had to fight back to his group and wasn't all that much help when he made it. If your a little undercooked/down on form/suffering from a monumental effort on the Zoncolan then that's going to cost you.

    The attack on the Zoncolan itself was ballsy and impressive, but smacked a little of desperation to salvage something. Perhaps he went deeper than he would have done if he'd been in his usual dominant position and only needing to grab a few seconds and possible stage win?
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  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    TheBigBean wrote:
    He hasn't quite got the climbing legs he had at the Vuelta last year.

    To be fair he had that crash on one of the earlier stages and shipped quite a bit of time. Since then he's been pretty even with Pinot and Pozzo.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,329
    As for the actual contenders....

    For the good of the race I hope Dumoulin sneaks into the pink, but not by much.
    Obviously I want to see Yates snatch it back, but watching Yates attacking and Dumoulin defending would make a great last week. If Yates keeps the pink tomorrow then it's hard to see how anything other than a "racing incident" or jour sans would lose him it again, which would be a sad way to see it go.
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  • dinyull
    dinyull Posts: 2,979
    Time bonuses have probably been done to death on here. But are they helping with attacking riding this year?

    No breakaways have been allowed to go, and doubt Yates would have been so attacking if nothing offered on the line.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,196
    No tA Doctor wrote:
    As for the actual contenders....

    For the good of the race I hope Dumoulin sneaks into the pink, but not by much.
    Obviously I want to see Yates snatch it back, but watching Yates attacking and Dumoulin defending would make a great last week. If Yates keeps the pink tomorrow then it's hard to see how anything other than a "racing incident" or jour sans would lose him it again, which would be a sad way to see it go.

    Jour sans is fine - It's part of the race! If he has an off day and concedes time why's that a sad way to see it go in particular? As it stands, the biggest unknown is how well he can sustain this kind of form into week 3 so if he does lose it, that strikes me as the most likely way for it to happen.

    A mechanical or something would be a pretty lame end to the race, I'd agree.
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    No tA Doctor wrote:
    For the good of the race I hope Dumoulin sneaks into the pink, but not by much.
    Obviously I want to see Yates snatch it back, but watching Yates attacking and Dumoulin defending would make a great last week. If Yates keeps the pink tomorrow then it's hard to see how anything other than a "racing incident" or jour sans would lose him it again, which would be a sad way to see it go.
    I think part of the issue is it's felt like a really tight race balanced on a knife edge so far. If Yates keeps pink and then wins another stage or two in the Alps, then suddenly we're looking at a dominant white wash.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,329
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    No tA Doctor wrote:
    As for the actual contenders....

    For the good of the race I hope Dumoulin sneaks into the pink, but not by much.
    Obviously I want to see Yates snatch it back, but watching Yates attacking and Dumoulin defending would make a great last week. If Yates keeps the pink tomorrow then it's hard to see how anything other than a "racing incident" or jour sans would lose him it again, which would be a sad way to see it go.

    Jour sans is fine - It's part of the race! If he has an off day and concedes time why's that a sad way to see it go in particular? As it stands, the biggest unknown is how well he can sustain this kind of form into week 3 so if he does lose it, that strikes me as the most likely way for it to happen.

    A mechanical or something would be a pretty lame end to the race, I'd agree.

    Oh it's all part of racing, no argument from me on that. And yes, questions about his ability to hold form into week 3 are definitely part of the excitement. I'd just be sad to see him lose it that way, after lighting up the race the way he has.
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  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,006
    TheBigBean wrote:
    1) Dumoulin won the proglogue, but doesn't seem to be in tip top form, so I would say it is a poor indicator

    What is the evidence that Dumoulin is not in top form? There is only Yates who taking anything, when the climbers ought to be hammering him. Massively impressed by his resilience.
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,867
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    4) I don't think Dumoulin will get more than 2 mins and I think Yates will win easily, but I've held that view for a while.

    Just listening to Friebe on the cycling podcast, it's 8-0 to Dumoulin vs Yates in TTs (no surprise there). Apparently par is 3s per km, and by my maths that's 103s or 1 minute 42 seconds i.e., not enough.

    With the current time gaps, Dumoulin needs to take more than 3.8s/km just to take pink. For comparison:

    3s/km: Yates retains lead by 28.4s
    3.5s/km: Yates retains lead by 11.3s
    4s/km: Yates concedes lead by 5.8s
    4.5s/km: Yates concedes lead by 22.9s
    5s/km: Yates concedes lead by 40s

    So it will need to be a big result from Dumoulin to even stand a chance of taking the jersey, and with Yates' current form even if Dumoulin does manage to pull out a big ride it might not be enough. The big unknown is whether Yates can continue to hold such good form and to a lesser extent whether Dumoulin recovers a bit on the rest day.

    In any case I think it's inconceivable that Dumoulin could possibly take as much as 5s/km (mechanicals/crashes notwithstanding), so whatever happens it should be close for the final week.


    kinda points towards the conclusion that TD needs a yates collapse in the third to win...geting 5s a km only gives hm 40sec lead and that is erasable by 20/s per mountaintop finish. moreover, such a 5sec/km result would probably indicate yates has collapsed anyway.

    the comment on cycling Podcast and others above that the looming location in the schedule of the tt has made the race forcing constant aggressive racing by the climbers day after day as opposed to landing one big knockout blow is well made.

    that said from these stats its looks like yesterday was a killer blow.

    seems its yates race to lose. it would feel an injustice of sorts if he lost it due to fatigue in the third as attacking relentlessly like this every day was the only viable strategy for a climber. there appears to be no other way. the race organisers have not made an "EASY" parcours for a climber. They have made a HARD but potentially doable course.

    only the alps will show if they made it too hard for them.

    other stuff:
    I was wrong about the Zoncalan and in hindsight, it often fails to deliver decisive outcomes, Basso's clean win being an exception IIRC. that doesn't mean its a poor spectacle in fact it was excellent just not what i thought. It is a good thing for the race it was not the gc killer.

    is the giro getting a bit too hard..? from a sanity POV given how the teams race it. the stats from riders dropping out seems to say no. but its freaking me out a bit. getting old I guess.
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,329
    Graeme_S wrote:
    No tA Doctor wrote:
    For the good of the race I hope Dumoulin sneaks into the pink, but not by much.
    Obviously I want to see Yates snatch it back, but watching Yates attacking and Dumoulin defending would make a great last week. If Yates keeps the pink tomorrow then it's hard to see how anything other than a "racing incident" or jour sans would lose him it again, which would be a sad way to see it go.
    I think part of the issue is it's felt like a really tight race balanced on a knife edge so far. If Yates keeps pink and then wins another stage or two in the Alps, then suddenly we're looking at a dominant white wash.

    I'd happily settle for that, tbh. It's great to see a closely contested contest, but a supreme attacking dominant performance is a decent second best.
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  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,867
    Dinyull wrote:
    Time bonuses have probably been done to death on here. But are they helping with attacking riding this year?

    a big yes.
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,867
    its super formula 1esque in style these days isn't it.

    https://youtu.be/l1KNkBj2A8k?t=201
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Vino'sGhost
    Vino'sGhost Posts: 4,129
    Dinyull wrote:
    Time bonuses have probably been done to death on here. But are they helping with attacking riding this year?

    No breakaways have been allowed to go, and doubt Yates would have been so attacking if nothing offered on the line.

    Surely he would have had to be even more attacking otherwise there would be no chance of beating tom who sticks with it in the mountains but dominates on the TT.

    As for coming in undercooked, Ive long held the opinion that the Giro is such a physically demanding race that if youre not on it your race can be over in the first week. I also think that recovery time or not if you ride to win the Giro youll have exhausted yourself for the Tour. It would be great to see Froome battling to win another but I fear he's done for himself. Unless of course he's now riding for training but even so its a big block.
  • Vino'sGhost
    Vino'sGhost Posts: 4,129
    mididoctors wrote:
    its super formula 1esque in style these days isn't it.

    https://youtu.be/l1KNkBj2A8k?t=201


    thats a great clip theres something very wholesome about that team and Yates.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,270
    This Friday's stage looks like a brute. Not too long, and once they get to halfway, not much flat either. If there's anyone else going to go full Aru, that would be it.

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