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Vuelta 2017:Stage 19: Caso. Parque Natural de Redes - Gijón 149.7KM *Spoilers*

blazing_saddlesblazing_saddles Posts: 17,350
edited September 2017 in Pro race
Stage 19: Caso. Parque Natural de Redes - Gijón 149.7KM

Another stage with a sting in it's tail.

Map:
CARTE.jpg

Profile:
PROFIL.png

Climb:
PROFILCOLSCOTES_1.png

Final Kms:
PROFILKMS.png

The bit that the official site doesn't show:
DJIiO3nXoAARNYH.jpg:large
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
«13

Posts

  • bm5bm5 Posts: 182
    I had a really tasty local trout dish at the restaurant in the middle of Rioseco which they go through just after stage start. Maybe Nibali should feed up there!
  • Today's prediction from Casa Yourpaceormine: they are all too cream crackered that few big names will go on the attack today; any GC action will come from the latter parts of the top ten/ early teens with some attempts to move into the top 10/defence of placings.
    Fisticuffs will be saved for tomorrow's slugfest, if anyone has any energy left.

    Of course I may be talking out of my behind...
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Nibbles has to go for it, he has time to make up.

    Today's question: assuming Froome doesn't suffer a technical tomorrow, how much time could Nibble ro Kelderman realistically gain on Froome? A minute? 2?

    So how much do they need to take today to set up tomorrow.....
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • larkimlarkim Posts: 2,323
    It's getting to the sharp end now for all the top 5. Every one of them will surely have to cover any of the other's moves today, so if Contador goes, Zakarin and Kelderman can't just sit back and expect Froome or Nibali to cover it. The unknown quantity I suppose is how much Nibali is bothered about 2nd place. If he's in a "1st or bust" mindset, which with his existing palmares I'd probably expect him to be in, he can attack and only realistically expect to have Froome need to hunt him down. If the pair of them go too deep into the red, a wise Zakarin or Kelderman could benefit by keeping a cool head.

    All to play for, which could equally result in a complete stalemate on the final climb.
    2015 Canyon Nerve AL 6.0 (son #1's)
    2011 Specialized Hardrock Sport Disc (son #3s)
    2013 Decathlon Triban 3 (red) (mine)
    2019 Hoy Bonaly 26" Disc (son #2s)
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  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Yeah but after yesterday, Nibbles might not have the energy for 2 big days, maybe he'll leave it til tomorrow?
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • r0bhr0bh Posts: 1,470
    15km from summit of final climb to the finish, so unless the run in is technical anyone who attacks is going to need a decent gap over the top to make it stick to the finish
  • larkimlarkim Posts: 2,323
    Bo Duke wrote:
    Yeah but after yesterday, Nibbles might not have the energy for 2 big days, maybe he'll leave it til tomorrow?
    But if he allows Froome to have an easier day today Froome will be in good shape to tackle Saturday too. In terms of success, it's like expecting a teenage boy to leave their GCSE coursework until the night before and expecting it will come out with an A*. The chance of leaving it to the last minute being a successful strategy I'd say is lower than spreading the strategy over two days.
    2015 Canyon Nerve AL 6.0 (son #1's)
    2011 Specialized Hardrock Sport Disc (son #3s)
    2013 Decathlon Triban 3 (red) (mine)
    2019 Hoy Bonaly 26" Disc (son #2s)
    2018 Voodoo Bizango (mine)
    2018 Voodoo Maji (wife's)
  • ProssPross Posts: 27,098
    I don't see any contenders going for it today. Yes, the final climb has a steep km on it and there might be a bit of leg testing but it would take a real effort to gain enough to hang on for the last 15km from what is likely to still be a fairly big group and the chances are anyone putting that sort of effort in today will lose their gains and more tomorrow. The best chance of winning this is to put Froome under pressure early on the Angliru where a struggling rider can lose huge amounts.
  • larkimlarkim Posts: 2,323
    I reckon ref tomorrow, if it was anyone other than Froome in the lead then the strategy of applying pressure from the bottom of Angliru might work. I just get the impression that he has too cool a head to be forced badly into the red. If he knows he just needs to be within 90s of Nibali by the top, I'd reckon I'd back Froome to pace himself sensibly to manage the size of any losses if Nibali suddenly finds he has more in the tank than anyone else by the bottom of the climb.
    2015 Canyon Nerve AL 6.0 (son #1's)
    2011 Specialized Hardrock Sport Disc (son #3s)
    2013 Decathlon Triban 3 (red) (mine)
    2019 Hoy Bonaly 26" Disc (son #2s)
    2018 Voodoo Bizango (mine)
    2018 Voodoo Maji (wife's)
  • Pross wrote:
    I don't see any contenders going for it today. Yes, the final climb has a steep km on it and there might be a bit of leg testing but it would take a real effort to gain enough to hang on for the last 15km from what is likely to still be a fairly big group and the chances are anyone putting that sort of effort in today will lose their gains and more tomorrow. The best chance of winning this is to put Froome under pressure early on the Angliru where a struggling rider can lose huge amounts.

    Id agree if it werent for the fact that every transition or easier day in thei Vuelta has been great! Contador has 3 more grand tour stage races left in him and one of those is the procession to Madrid. I say death or glory from Contador :)
  • short stage mind. going to encourage a bit of speed no?

    some of the guys in the lower top ten may try something further out.
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • I had a holiday in Gijon about 12 years ago and recall seeing a young Liberty Seguros rider out training who I've always assumed was Contador before he was famous (I went through the team website looking at all the rider profiles to ID him). I've no way of confirming whether it was him, but will continue to assume it was. Therefore, I expect he knows the roads today better than anyone.

    More interesting actual fact about Contador is that it was the Vuelta a Asturias in 2004 when he suffered from convulsions and went to hospital with his cavernoma. Today's (and tomorrow's) stage is in Asturias.

    Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 54,907 Lives Here
    short stage mind. going to encourage a bit of speed no?

    some of the guys in the lower top ten may try something further out.

    Would imagine a final (real) day Angrilu will put the fear in most big riders to chill out today.
  • Watching the highlights (Eurosport) prior to live coverage. The sound is on, so just heard the theme music as it cuts to an ad break. The last couple of notes are the start of "Down Under" by Men at Work, that's all I can hear now.
  • Huge, potentially dangerous breakaway:
    Edward Theuns, Jarlinson Pantano (Trek-Segafredo), Bob Jungels, Matteo Trentin (Quick Step), Nicolas Roche (BMC), Emanuel Buchmann (Bora-Hansgrohe), Julien Duval (AG2R-La Mondiale), Davide Villella (Cannondale-Drapac), Floris De Tier, Juanjo Lobato (LottoNL-Jumbo), Rui Costa, Matej Mohoric (UAE Team Emirates), Laurens De Vreese (Astana), Thomas De Gendt (Lotto-Soudal), Ivan Garcia Cortina (Bahrain-Merida), Dani Navarro, Kenneth Vanbilsen (Cofidis), David Arroyo (Caja Rural-Seguros RGA) and Juan Felipe Osorio (Manzana-Postobon)

    With Juul Jensen, Bardet, Rojas, Tolhoek, Bouwman, Verona, Clarke and Gougeard trying to bridge.

    3 minutes of an advantage.

    The gap with the peloton is already up to 8'55".

    Reaching the top of the first cat....
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Eurosport reviewing yesterday AGAIN... c'mon....
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 9,730
    Roche in the break - was 27 minutes down so no worry to any of the top ten, but presumably will go up a few places into the top 15 if the gap is still big at the finish?
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Out to 15 mins now......
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • Bo Duke wrote:
    Out to 15 mins now......
    is the peloton having a picnic?
  • whats the dynamic on team gc?
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • 17:30 now. They could walk faster :D
  • 17:38 at the mo......
  • 2 movistars no sky no astana
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    17:50... Froome's going for the Lanterne Rouge instead of Connor Dunn!

    We're going to have to wait for that last climb for they wake up....
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • astana chasing team competition.
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • I wonder what Sean mutters under his breath when CK asks him stupid questions like that?
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 54,907 Lives Here
    short stage mind. going to encourage a bit of speed no?

    some of the guys in the lower top ten may try something further out.

    Would imagine a final (real) day Angrilu will put the fear in most big riders to chill out today.
  • short stage mind. going to encourage a bit of speed no?

    some of the guys in the lower top ten may try something further out.

    Would imagine a final (real) day Angrilu will put the fear in most big riders to chill out today.

    yeah looks that way.
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    censored those coppers don't hang around do they?! Good stuff!
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • Bo DukeBo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Berti goes Again......
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
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