TDF 2017: 14 July - Stage 13 - Saint-Girons - Foix 101kms *Spoilers*

EnacheV

smithy21 wrote:

:roll: oh god EnacheV has responded to my comment :roll:

would be nice if you would answer with some facts backing your amusing comments.

EnacheV

i think this is quite comprehensive of the situation

Daniel Lloyd‏Verified account @daniellloyd1 7m7 minutes ago
Imagine how many times Team Sky would have won the Tour de France by now if they'd had us lot to plan their tactics.

no sane DS would bank his success on a guy coming from Giro when he has a 3 time TdF winner in the team, the best TT-er by far, at 6secs from 1st place and with a ITT on stage 20.

i expect Land to crack in the final week, but even if he doesn't i don't see him as a real threat to Aru, Bardet and the other fresh GC riders. Quintana is much more of a threat as he has the pedigree.

rick_chasey

I just don't see why having Landa steam into the finish, clearly riding a GC race and giving up any chance of winning the stage and then having Kwia and Froome chase behind makes any sense.

Having members from the same team riding on the front of each group is basic bad tactics.

The Quintana threat isn't why it happened then unless you're saying Landa disobeyed team orders.

But then I would back Landa over Quintana in this tour and I would back Landa to win yellow if he was in it.

Had it been Froome 2 mins behind and Landa 2nd overall and Froome was up the road they'd have let him ride with Quintana for yellow.

EnacheV

Rick Chasey wrote:

I just don't see why having Landa steam into the finish, clearly riding a GC race and giving up any chance of winning the stage and then having Kwia and Froome chase behind makes any sense.

Having members from the same team riding on the front of each group is basic bad tactics.

The Quintana threat isn't why it happened then unless you're saying Landa disobeyed team orders.

But then I would back Landa over Quintana in this tour and I would back Landa to win yellow if he was in it.

Had it been Froome 2 mins behind and Landa 2nd overall and Froome was up the road they'd have let him ride with Quintana for yellow.

i think that Brailsford would give all support to Landa if he would be sure he can beat Quintana in a 1vs1 and that would decide the tour winner.

Brailsford doesn;t care who of his riders wins it (and he doesn't like Froome anyway), he just want to be sure the team wins it.

Atm Froome's chance of winning are 80% while Landa's are at 5%. 3 week didn't even started and Landa's chance to fade is much greater than Quintana's.

Froome is older, less explosiveness than in the past, but his endurance must be greater. I expect him to drop all his competitors as the tour goes in to the late stages. That's why you don't bet on Landa's tired Giro legs at 5%.

RichN95.

smithy21 wrote:

Sky have now shown that the "Landa card" means nothing.

If they send him up the road Aru, Bardet and Uran all know that Froome will chase him down at some point.

Froome can afford to give Landa a minute and a half an still beat him with ease. The others can't say that, so they'll crack first. Plus there are podium positions to defend.

iainf72

This fantasy that the team needs to win is clouding judgement here.

Froome is the leader. That's who the team wants to win. It's not a democracy where anyone can get a fair shake.

Aru and co know this too, which is probably why they weren't that bothered.

EnacheV

iainf72 wrote:

This fantasy that the team needs to win is clouding judgement here.

Froome is the leader. That's who the team wants to win. It's not a democracy where anyone can get a fair shake.

Aru and co know this too, which is probably why they weren't that bothered.

i think you are wrong. Brailsford doesn't like Froome and if he would be sure Landa would won it for him he would give full support to Landa.

I think Brailsford doesn;t care who wins it as long is a Sky guy. 2012 was another thing, 1st time thing bla bla bla.

EnacheV

also this is a discussion because Froome is keep trying for Vuelta, longer peaks, different training. If he would focus ala Armstrong this tour would be over by now.

Since he started to aim for Vuelta to (2015) his riding style changed a lot. You can also see that in the fact that Sky places 4 people in top 20, their train doesn't drop anybody and 2-3 domestiques arrive 2 mins after GC group.

PSM in 2015 was the last of his big rides, after that only shitty defending and winning in ITT's.

rick_chasey

iainf72 wrote:

This fantasy that the team needs to win is clouding judgement here.

Froome is the leader. That's who the team wants to win. It's not a democracy where anyone can get a fair shake.

Aru and co know this too, which is probably why they weren't that bothered.

So you stop Landa riding not chase Landa whilst he's pushing.

RichN95.

iainf72 wrote:

This fantasy that the team needs to win is clouding judgement here.

Froome is the leader. That's who the team wants to win. It's not a democracy where anyone can get a fair shake.

Aru and co know this too, which is probably why they weren't that bothered.

But Landa is a threat to their podium positions long before he becomes a threat to Froome's overall (he's still the odds on favourite with the bookies). Cannondale would defend 14th, so they'll damn well defend fourth.

iainf72

Rick Chasey wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

This fantasy that the team needs to win is clouding judgement here.

Froome is the leader. That's who the team wants to win. It's not a democracy where anyone can get a fair shake.

Aru and co know this too, which is probably why they weren't that bothered.

So you stop Landa riding not chase Landa whilst he's pushing.

Who says they didn't try? If he decides to ride, how do you stop him?

iainf72

[quote="RichN95"
But Landa is a threat to their podium positions long before he becomes a threat to Froome's overall (he's still the odds on favourite with the bookies). Cannondale would defend 14th, so they'll damn well defend fourth.[/quote]

I'll give you that, which is why Martin was active I guess.

I'm still not seeing a big mystery in making sure NQ doesn't get too much time back.

rick_chasey

So you're saying Landa went rogue?

Fine. A rider going rogue is not ideal tactics.

My beef is with people saying it was designed that way.

DeVlaeminck

EnacheV wrote:

smithy21 wrote:

Sky have now shown that the "Landa card" means nothing.

If they send him up the road Aru, Bardet and Uran all know that Froome will chase him down at some point.

Froome and Kwiat were at back of the GC group for the 90% of descent + 2-3 little testing digs that did nothing. you call that "chase" ?

This is the key question really, did they chase or did they just race within their own group - on balance as Enachev says and a few others (RichN?) have said already it was more the latter. Froome tried to break clear a few times and helped close down a few others that tried to break clear and that did raise the pace but they were racing each other rather than trying to close down Landa.

There probably was an element of keeping the gap below that needed to put Landa in yellow - it's not surprising Froome didn't want Landa in the jersey and maybe he did a bit more attacking and animated the group more than he would have otherwise but had Landa not been there I think we might have seen Froome and Kwiatkowski do more chasing when Martin broke clear.

iainf72

Rick Chasey wrote:

So you're saying Landa went rogue?

Fine. A rider going rogue is not ideal tactics.

My beef is with people saying it was designed that way.

He could've done. Or if the tactic was for Landa to take back 2 minutes, they executed against that. Or the tactic was to make people think "WTF? is there discord in the team"

As an outcome, I cannot see how Landa into yellow is good in any way. It would just be a huge distraction.

DeVlaeminck

Rick Chasey wrote:

So you're saying Landa went rogue?

Fine. A rider going rogue is not ideal tactics.

My beef is with people saying it was designed that way.

I think Landa was given freedom to raise his GC position for a variety of reasons including maybe keeping him happy as well as having a second card to play/insurance against Froome crashing/marking Quintana etc but they weren't going to prioritise Landa or give him equal billing if you want.

I don't think the tactics were bad - they've ended up losing nothing to the main GC rivals and not looking like they would and bringing Landa up on GC.

RichN95.

Landa didn't even want to be at this race and now he's fifth and if he hasn't signed his next contract yet, his price has gone up. I think he's probably quite satisfied. A shot at a podium spot and a stage win will be enough for him. He probably knows that he won't get enough time over Froome to beat him (remember AG2R have a pretty solid team, so long breaks will be shut down).

rick_chasey

^^ certainly not if Froome chases after him...

rick_chasey

iainf72 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So you're saying Landa went rogue?

Fine. A rider going rogue is not ideal tactics.

My beef is with people saying it was designed that way.

He could've done. Or if the tactic was for Landa to take back 2 minutes, they executed against that. Or the tactic was to make people think "WTF? is there discord in the team"

As an outcome, I cannot see how Landa into yellow is good in any way. It would just be a huge distraction.

Course it is!

The ideal position is having the entire team high on GC and you keep sending different riders up the road and have the rest cover.

We all watched Sastre's victory.

inseine

As I said, the SKY tactics went wrong in the end, but isn't that often the Caedmon when a team is dominant? I think they lost track a bit but the ideal scenario was that Lando fit time, and the stage, while Aru chases enough that Froome could jump him and gain time back. Froome tried this a few times, on the climb, the descent and on the flat. He just panicked a bit also when he saw Landa getttibg too far ahead. That was the error.

rick_chasey

Separately - are we assuming UAE have a big Kazakh cheque heading their way??

tailwindhome

I'm going to watch this again this morning.
Sky were working in two groups on the road.
That make's no sense whatsoever.

If it's right for Froome to chase to limit a loss to Quintana - then Landa needs to stop helping Quintana
If it's right for Sky to put Landa higher up the GC - then Froome and Kwitalowski need to stop helping Aru etc

Surely for Sky the 'Landa' card is for Landa to go with/but not work with any attacks.

tailwindhome

Rick Chasey wrote:

Separately - are we assuming UAE have a big Kazakh cheque heading their way??

Are we also assuming Landa to Trek?

The_Boy

Rick Chasey wrote:

Separately - are we assuming UAE have a big Kazakh cheque heading their way??

Am I misremembering or were there not rumours of aru to UAE?

rick_chasey

TailWindHome wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Separately - are we assuming UAE have a big Kazakh cheque heading their way??

Are we also assuming Landa to Trek?

Not necessarily. I just think Contador likes to stir races up.

But it would make sense for them - why not?

blazing_saddles

Their tactics may have gone wrong at the end, but the overall outcome was very successful.
On stages like that, the tactical goal keeps moving.
Contador made sure of that.

Had Landa been "allowed" to take the MJ, Quintana would be sitting at approximately 50 seconds on the GC, with all of his earlier loses wiped out and the only two stages that go over 2,000 metres to come.

Worth the risk, or no?

RichN95.

TailWindHome wrote:

I'm going to watch this again this morning.
Sky were working in two groups on the road.
That make's no sense whatsoever.

If it's right for Froome to chase to limit a loss to Quintana - then Landa needs to stop helping Quintana
If it's right for Sky to put Landa higher up the GC - then Froome and Kwitalowski need to stop helping Aru etc

Surely for Sky the 'Landa' card is for Landa to go with/but not work with any attacks.

The tactics aren't binary - it's not break or no break. There's a range of time gaps available. Landa (and Quintana) gaining two minutes was about perfect for Sky's needs. The gap was consistently around two minutes for 50km. It looked perfectly managed to me.

DeVlaeminck

TailWindHome wrote:

I'm going to watch this again this morning.
Sky were working in two groups on the road.
That make's no sense whatsoever.

If it's right for Froome to chase to limit a loss to Quintana - then Landa needs to stop helping Quintana
If it's right for Sky to put Landa higher up the GC - then Froome and Kwitalowski need to stop helping Aru etc

Surely for Sky the 'Landa' card is for Landa to go with/but not work with any attacks.

Froome wasn't chasing as such just mindful that the gap didn't get out of control. There isn't much of a down side to Quintana getting a bit of time back, they'd probably prefer it didn't happen but getting Landa a couple of minutes and keeping him happy outweighs that. They don't want Quintana right back in the fight though and as they are backing Froome, not just through loyalty but because he has the track record, they don't particularly want Landa to start thinking he's team leader. It makes sense.

blazing_saddles

If the 2 groups had been in a 2up TT from the top of the climb the result would look like this:

1) Landa/Quintana group
2) Froome/Kwiat group @ 11".

OK.. :?

bobmcstuff

I think for the first time ever I kind of agree with some of what EnacheV has to say!