TdF 2017

24

Comments

  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    Not sure I agree with the sentiments regarding the short(er) stages, I think they make for better racing.

    Whenever they have a mega 250km-stage with 5000m of climbing, all the GC-contenders crap themselves and trundle around as though it's a sportive because they're (rightfully) scared of losing bucket-loads of time. On a short, punchy stage everyone is all-guns-blazing because they're all on fresh legs and want to steal the stage and/or a few seconds.

    The 100km stage in particular looks like it's designed for a breakaway though; the organisers have to put in something for the non-GC teams to fight for.

    In this Giro terms, that's the "I hope they lose their podium" stage 18.
    Just 131kms long, but hardly a pop gun blazing.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited May 2017
    Not sure I agree with the sentiments regarding the short(er) stages, I think they make for better racing.

    Whenever they have a mega 250km-stage with 5000m of climbing, all the GC-contenders crap themselves and trundle around as though it's a sportive because they're (rightfully) scared of losing bucket-loads of time. On a short, punchy stage everyone is all-guns-blazing because they're all on fresh legs and want to steal the stage and/or a few seconds.

    .
    orly_owl.jpg

    Let's take a look at last year's Tour which had 3 sub 170km Mountain stage.

    stage 7 l’Isle Jourdain to Lac de Payolle: Friday 8 July 162.5km
    Main GC guys comes in 3;37 behind – no real attacking, arrive together.


    Stage 19 22 July 2016 — Albertville to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc, 146 km
    Apart from Bardet’s decent descent, and Froome & Bauke falling off their bike, another snooze.

    Stage 20 23 July 2016 — Megève to Morzine-Avoriaz, 146.5 km
    GC race effectively neutralised‘cos of wet descent, Izagirre the only one with any balls.

    ---

    Too many of you think about these stages in isolation. For a short mountain stage to work, everyone needs to be tired.

    Otherwise a strong team like SKy can boss it without any problems. The selection isn't great enough.

    You need monster Mountain stages AND short stages - you need the mix. One to tire them out, the other to allow the less tired to make the difference.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,259
    edited May 2017
    Mad_Malx wrote:
    Is this Tour deliberately TT light to reduce Frome's advantage?
    It's been pretty light on TTing ever since Prudhomme took control of the race, with a general downward trend. I think he just doesn't like them much as they're not that great for TV.

    Edit: Here's a graph of ITT kms in the 21st Century. Prudhomme took over in 2007. There's been a noticeably consistent drop since 2009 (probably the first route he had control over)

    RjQLW8X.png
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    It doesn't have many proper mountain finishes either. Looks pretty uninspiring to me.

    Although as always the riders go a long way to making the race.
  • kleinstroker
    kleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    As usual it will come to down to who avoids the accidents as much as who is on form.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    My read of the race was it was as much a Bardet route as they could get away with.
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    Mad_Malx wrote:
    Is this Tour deliberately TT light to reduce Frome's advantage?

    2015 only had 14km of individual TT and Froome still won.
  • epc06
    epc06 Posts: 216
    No Nibali by the looks of it, more likely to ride Vuelta. Any more favourites confirmed their plans yet - Porte and Froome looking to be there, Quintana too - Aru? Dumoulin? Is Valverde a co-leader or a super domestique and if the latter has anyone told him ?

    Valverde has as much a chance of winning as Quintana. cant see Movistar using him as super domestique
  • fenix
    fenix Posts: 5,437
    Milton50 wrote:
    It doesn't have many proper mountain finishes either. Looks pretty uninspiring to me.

    Although as always the riders go a long way to making the race.

    If you want gaps always have a mountain top finish. It usually comes back together if there's a descent to the line.
  • sherer
    sherer Posts: 2,460
    Fenix wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    It doesn't have many proper mountain finishes either. Looks pretty uninspiring to me.

    Although as always the riders go a long way to making the race.

    If you want gaps always have a mountain top finish. It usually comes back together if there's a descent to the line.

    unless Froome does another attack.

    Not the best route in the world. See they have a stage starting in Verviers in Belgium, great town that seems to shut at 1600 every day.

    Cant see anyone beating Froome except himself. Its the riders that make the race though not the route
  • kleinstroker
    kleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    If all the climbers make it to stage 5, then it will be interesting to see who has the balls to attack, obviously Quintana will make a pointless 250m dash at some point, but hope maybe Contador or Porte can push Froome a bit.
    Stages 6 & 7 seems a bit meh, think they could have had at least one rolling type stage to thin out the GC guys before the next mountains
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,259
    If all the climbers make it to stage 5, then it will be interesting to see who has the balls to attack, obviously Quintana will make a pointless 250m dash at some point, but hope maybe Contador or Porte can push Froome a bit.
    Well Froome has won the first mountain stage every year since 2012, except 2014 when he didn't get that far. So you can probably guarantee he'll attack.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • gsk82
    gsk82 Posts: 3,615
    RichN95 wrote:
    If all the climbers make it to stage 5, then it will be interesting to see who has the balls to attack, obviously Quintana will make a pointless 250m dash at some point, but hope maybe Contador or Porte can push Froome a bit.
    Well Froome has won the first mountain stage every year since 2012, except 2014 when he didn't get that far. So you can probably guarantee he'll attack.

    He's said his goal for the year is the tour and vuelta double, so I don't think he'll be coming in with the intention of smashing it early. But there's so little opportunity in this year's route he may feel he has to do something every chance he gets.
    "Unfortunately these days a lot of people don’t understand the real quality of a bike" Ernesto Colnago
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,259
    gsk82 wrote:
    He's said his goal for the year is the tour and vuelta double, so I don't think he'll be coming in with the intention of smashing it early. But there's so little opportunity in this year's route he may feel he has to do something every chance he gets.
    Yeah, but defending a lead with a strong team and a TT in hand is less exhausting that chasing it later.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,107
    RichN95 wrote:
    If all the climbers make it to stage 5, then it will be interesting to see who has the balls to attack, obviously Quintana will make a pointless 250m dash at some point, but hope maybe Contador or Porte can push Froome a bit.
    Well Froome has won the first mountain stage every year since 2012, except 2014 when he didn't get that far. So you can probably guarantee he'll attack.

    Agreed, plus he has faded a bit in the third week in the past and whilst I'm not suggesting he is still prone to doing so they'll know that you can never have too much of a lead over your main opponents. If there is time there to be taken then they'll take it and that stage looks tailor made for him.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    RichN95 wrote:
    If all the climbers make it to stage 5, then it will be interesting to see who has the balls to attack, obviously Quintana will make a pointless 250m dash at some point, but hope maybe Contador or Porte can push Froome a bit.
    Well Froome has won the first mountain stage every year since 2012, except 2014 when he didn't get that far. So you can probably guarantee he'll attack.

    Agreed, plus he has faded a bit in the third week in the past

    You know he won the stage 18 Mountain Time Trial, right?

    Some fade.
  • yourpaceormine
    yourpaceormine Posts: 1,245
    The 100km stage (13?) looks interesting. A brave experiment. Could go either way - really exciting with attacks from the gun, and aggressive downhill finish or the whole stage effectively neutralised due to downhill finish. Weather could play a big factor.

    Riders: it is hard to see past Froome. He's one of a handful who have the potential to win it, but add in his team and he has a considerable advantage.

    Quintana... a tricky one, ridden into form during the Giro or tired from the Giro? Whichever I've always thought that Valverde would always ignore team orders if there was any chance of personal gain.

    Porte would appear to have a very good chance, knowing Froome well (his limitations, strengths, body language etc) plus a route that reduces any Froome advantage. But he does have a reputation for struggling over 3 weeks.

    Get the feeling ASO designed the route to help Cavendish break the record; hope a racing fit Cav makes it. (First race back the nationals I believe?)
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,107
    RichN95 wrote:
    If all the climbers make it to stage 5, then it will be interesting to see who has the balls to attack, obviously Quintana will make a pointless 250m dash at some point, but hope maybe Contador or Porte can push Froome a bit.
    Well Froome has won the first mountain stage every year since 2012, except 2014 when he didn't get that far. So you can probably guarantee he'll attack.

    Agreed, plus he has faded a bit in the third week in the past

    You know he won the stage 18 Mountain Time Trial, right?

    Some fade.

    Selective quoting there Rick the next line was I am not suggesting he is prone to it!

    My point is not that Froome is going to fade just that as he is experienced enough not to turn down chances to attack and gain time early on as he knows being the strongest in week 1 doesn't guarantee you'll be strongest in week 3.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    I can't think of an occasion in his victories when he has ever really looked under pressure, save for one day on the Alp when he was ill and even then it wasn't that bad.

    He's got it in him to win 5 or more for sure.

    He's easily #1 GC rider by quite a distance.

    You know it's like that when your former domestiques become your nearest rivals.

    Like Landis or Hamilton were ever really going to beat Armstrong.

    The amount of big riders going for the Giro just demonstrates how he's in their heads. They know July is a write off, save for an accident.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    If we boil down last year, he smashed all the rivals in the TT, one flat, one Mountain, he gained time on a descent, in crosswinds and had a relatively easy time on the MTF finishes, only really losing a bit of time whilst riding a teammate's bike.

    The guy in the past has also smashed all of his rivals on MTFs and none have beaten him on form in any TT.

    His team is the best and even when they're found wanting during an ambush, his legs can still bail them out.

    Even when he's ill he doesn't ship more than a minute on the Alp.

    The guy is just a long way ahead of everyone else.

    As much as I don't like it.
  • kleinstroker
    kleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    We should forward that post to Quintana Rick!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    We should forward that post to Quintana Rick!

    Who, the rider who has never beaten Froome in the Tour?
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    I can't think of an occasion in his victories when he has ever really looked under pressure, save for one day on the Alp when he was ill and even then it wasn't that bad.

    Did it turn out he was ill that day?

    I thought there were two occasions when he lost time on the Alp. One when he had a hunger knock and Porte had to go back to the car to get a gel.

    Then the other time Porte and Poels had to pace him up the climb and Quintana gained about 1:20. Didn't realise it was illness.
  • kleinstroker
    kleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    We should forward that post to Quintana Rick!

    Who, the rider who has never beaten Froome in the Tour?
    But he really believes he can, and it's just that on the day his legs were bad or wind was blowing in the wrong direction.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Yeah and I believe I can be KOM on embankment because I once rode it faster than the KOM owner did on that day.

    Ain't gonna happen.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,976
    Froome hasn't looked great this year, but we will presumably see more at the Dauphine.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    ^^ usual caveats apply - form, health and crashes pending.
  • poppit
    poppit Posts: 926
    Froome's bound to be faster in the new jersey colour.
    Eddy Merckx EMX-3
    Dolan L'Etape
    Cougar Zero Uno
    Genesis Core 50
    Planet X TOR
  • ridgerider
    ridgerider Posts: 2,852
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Froome hasn't looked great this year, but we will presumably see more at the Dauphine.
    Is it just me or am I reading about his bad back more often this year.

    It's not often he fails in races but he seems to have done so a couple of times earlier this year...
    Half man, Half bike
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,708
    poppit wrote:
    Froome's bound to be faster in the new jersey colour.

    Chris-Froome-in-2017-Team-Sky-TdF-kit_jpeg.jpg
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver